This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research article
Asraa Khtan
mustanisiryah universitye
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Rainfall is a key part of the hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affects the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. The present study aims to analyze the trend and forecast annual rainfall in Baghdad. rainfall data for the period of 1979-2019 was analyzed in this study, Statistical trend analysis techniques namely linear and Exponential trend were used to examine and analyze the problem. The result shows that rainfall will decrease in both methods but the liner method gives a higher value. from plotting time series of annual rainfall see that very variation so 5- moving average made to reduce the variance of rain but still variations so second 5- moving average made give less variance for rain then teak liner trend the result show also trend will decrease but reach 125 mm less than liner trend of actual series.
Keywords
rainfall, trend analysis, statistical test, water resource, Baghdad
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This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research article
Asraa Khtan
mustanisiryah universitye
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 01 Nov, 2021
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Rainfall is a key part of the hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affects the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. The present study aims to analyze the trend and forecast annual rainfall in Baghdad. rainfall data for the period of 1979-2019 was analyzed in this study, Statistical trend analysis techniques namely linear and Exponential trend were used to examine and analyze the problem. The result shows that rainfall will decrease in both methods but the liner method gives a higher value. from plotting time series of annual rainfall see that very variation so 5- moving average made to reduce the variance of rain but still variations so second 5- moving average made give less variance for rain then teak liner trend the result show also trend will decrease but reach 125 mm less than liner trend of actual series.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
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