This preprint is under consideration at Theoretical and Applied Climatology. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Tarmizi Ismail
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6748-4703
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are considered the most feasible tools to estimate future climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the interpretation of 19 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) in replicating the historical precipitation and temperature of climate prediction center data for the Amu Darya river basin (ADRB) and the projection of climate of the basin using the selected GCMs. The Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric was used to assess the effectiveness of GCMs to simulate the annual geographic variability of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn). A multi-criteria decision-making approach (MCDMA) was used to integrate the KGE values to rank GCMs. The results revealed that MPI-ESM1-2-LR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and AWI-CM-1-1-MR are the best in replicating observed Pr, Tmx and Tmn in ADRB. Projection of climate employing the selected GCMs indicated an increase in precipitation (9.9-12.4%) and temperature (1.3-5.5⁰C) in the basin for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), particularly for the far future (2060-2099). A significant variation can be seen in temperature over the different climatic zone. However, the intercomparison of selected GCM projected revealed high uncertainty in the projected climate. The uncertainty is higher in the far future and higher SSPs compared to the near future and lower SSPs.
Keywords
General circulation model, CMIP6, climate projection, shared socioeconomic pathway, Amu Darya river basin.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 12 Nov, 2021
No community comments so far
Reviews received
Received 08 Nov, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2021
Editor assigned
On 03 Nov, 2021
First submitted
On 29 Oct, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Learn more about our company.
This preprint is under consideration at Theoretical and Applied Climatology. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Tarmizi Ismail
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6748-4703
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 12 Nov, 2021
No community comments so far
Reviews received
Received 08 Nov, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 Nov, 2021
Editor assigned
On 03 Nov, 2021
First submitted
On 29 Oct, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are considered the most feasible tools to estimate future climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the interpretation of 19 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) in replicating the historical precipitation and temperature of climate prediction center data for the Amu Darya river basin (ADRB) and the projection of climate of the basin using the selected GCMs. The Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric was used to assess the effectiveness of GCMs to simulate the annual geographic variability of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn). A multi-criteria decision-making approach (MCDMA) was used to integrate the KGE values to rank GCMs. The results revealed that MPI-ESM1-2-LR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and AWI-CM-1-1-MR are the best in replicating observed Pr, Tmx and Tmn in ADRB. Projection of climate employing the selected GCMs indicated an increase in precipitation (9.9-12.4%) and temperature (1.3-5.5⁰C) in the basin for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), particularly for the far future (2060-2099). A significant variation can be seen in temperature over the different climatic zone. However, the intercomparison of selected GCM projected revealed high uncertainty in the projected climate. The uncertainty is higher in the far future and higher SSPs compared to the near future and lower SSPs.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...