Negotiating Climate and Energy Futures: Prospects for Climate Compatible Recoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean


 Funding agencies will play an important role in energy transitions in post-COVID recoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). If “done right,” they can contribute to climate compatible growth (CCG) aligned with the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda, and also achieve the target of universal access. In this study, a comprehensive document analysis was conducted to analyse how funding institutions can help overcome pre-existing gaps and vulnerabilities, and simultaneously promote equitable energy transitions and decarbonization pathways in the region.The research findings implicate policy-making in the following ways: first, all-of-energy matrix in planning needs to be taken into account, if the projected recoveries are to be transformative and climate compatible. Second, enforceable legal and institutional frameworks that link climate and renewable energy law, with contingencies for rural and urban planning, would make it possible for local actors to take immediate action. Third, equal local access to capabilities and training can support synergies between the latest climate science, the implementation of low-carbon solutions, and cross-sectoral innovation. As a recommendation, the study proposes establishing Research & Training Centres (RTCs) at sub-national levels as an interface between climate-energy research community (local and international), climate and energy practitioners, and local communities.


Introduction
This policy brief juxtaposes current approaches to economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) against an ideal typeclimate compatible recovery aligned with the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Two questions are posed: first, as LAC countries attempt to balance their budgets in response to the economic contraction due to the pandemic, will this result in spending cuts that will undermine more ambitious climate goals and sustainable energy targets? Second, how do international organizations, donor agencies, and funding institutions propose to address challenges to clean energy transitions faced by the LAC region?
The findings summarize present-day challenges and differentiate between factors that are likely to push LAC toward development trajectories that replicate past uneven distribution of costs and benefits and factors that are likely to improve livelihood prospects for many, including those currently left-behind.
As a world region, LAC is still a world leader in clean energy use. It is also a region with a high concentration of cities severely impacted by climate change. Climate vulnerability manifests in both urban and rural areas (heat extremes, changing precipitation, declines in hydrological systems' viability, and erosion of natural habitats and biodiversity).
Climate compatible energy transitions are deemed essential for slowing down the pace of climate change and limiting the rise of global temperatures, but LAC's economic downturn in the aftermath of the pandemic poses serious risk for climate compatible recoveries ( Table 1).

Fossil fuels or renewables?
Even though LAC as a world region has more renewables in the energy mix than other world regions, the expansion of megacities has resulted in greater consumption of fossil fuels, contributing to high levels of ambient pollution, poor health, and environmental degradation. While per capita CO2 emissions are still lower in LAC than in the rest of the world, the growing energy demand-double that of world average-prompts a question whether this increase will be met by an increase in fossil fuel energy production and supply, or predominantly by renewables [2]. Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean still rely heavily on fossil fuels, and other countries are beginning to replace renewables with fossil fuels, particularly in electricity production. Gas-fired generation is the most significant source of electricity after hydropower, accounting for 25% of power generation [3].

Key findings
Based on the document analysis, recovery packages that focus on decoupling economic growth from GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and ecosystem degradation have the advantage of comprehensively addressing the aggregate negative effects of the pandemic, biodiversity loss, and climate change.
In post-COVID recoveries, Latin America needs to avoid a "race to the bottom" and carefully weigh the risks of energy-intensive development against climate-compatible development alternatives [4][5][6].
While a faster uptake of renewables seems to be overwhelmingly favoured by international agencies, the following question remains unansweredwhich renewables, and at what scale, should be implemented to meet the demand, and at the same time deliver multiple benefits to socially and culturally diverse communities, including those currently without access? ( Table 2).

Table 2. Communities left behind
▪ 350 million lack access to safe sanitation ▪ 160 million lack access to safe water ▪ 50 million lack access to cooling ▪ 22 million lack access to electricity ▪ 80% of total population live in urban areas ▪ 50% of indigenous population live in cities For renewable technologies to achieve high levels of social acceptance across diverse societal groups, and to reach communities living in remote areas, more effective ways of communicating the benefits of renewables need to be operationalized. Populations struggling to recover their livelihoods after COVID-19 pandemic need to understand why they should support renewable energy solutions, particularly if such technologies are perceived to be costly, or have uncertain outcomes and non-specific benefits.

Urban contexts:
More comprehensive urban planning is needed to incorporate both renewable energy and naturebased solutions to make cities more resilient, addressing jointly the many issues shared by LAC coastal megacities-in energy planning full electrification of infrastructures and transport, deployment of advanced renewable technologies (e.g., Concentrated Solar Power: pictured above), re-use of industrial and municipal waste, retrofitting for renewables, improving access to cooling and safe cooking inside homes, and addressing water and air pollution.

Rural contexts:
Insufficient attention has been paid to low-cost, small-scale energy solutions, including off-grid solar, which have the potential to bring crosssector benefits and address multiple SDGs simultaneously (e.g., re-use of bio-waste to replace costly chemical fertilizers used in agriculture; solutions that prevent slash & burn; and clean cooking technologies (pictured above) that replace biomass to avoid deforestation and air pollution).
In rural indigenous contexts, recognition of cultural values, reciprocal knowledge exchange, and better access to information and capabilities (training) improve chances of project success. The uptake of renewables will likely be hindered when lines of communication are not established, when technical capacity is constrained and upskilling not planned for, and when information asymmetry emerges among the different sets of actors.
Indigenous and local knowledge have been increasingly recognized as an important source of climate knowledge and adaptation strategies [10,11]. Indigenous ways of understanding the changing climate can contribute to the evolving methodologies on climate-relevant data, as well as global adaptation and mitigation efforts (   [12][13][14] Energy transitions and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). If local communities are expected to share in the benefits of such transitions, the recovery packages need to be linked to integrated pathways (i.e., sustainable development framework) to ensure that pre-existing gaps and vulnerabilities are addressed and resolved, rather than replicated and amplified. This implies accounting for the most pressing regional challenges: income inequalities (SDG 10), lack of innovation (SDG 9), and insecurity (SDG 16) [7]. Solving this trilemma calls for legal and institutional reforms, knowledge dissemination, and new levels of problem-solving capabilities-all of which require investment in the development of human capital, training, and upskilling, as well as research, science and innovation.
Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) related to SDG 9 can help steer climate compatible development underpinned by a rapid uptake of renewables and decarbonization of the gas sector, in turn increasing productivity and energy efficiency while reducing costs. For example, if all thirty-one countries in the Caribbean sub-region move to 90% clean energy by 2030, this will not only benefit human and environmental health, but also result in annual savings of 9 billion in fuel costs [8].
If the focus of STI is expanded to address societal and environmental challenges, it can become a key driver toward progress on multiple SDGs [9].
Summary of findings. Since science and research communities are mostly excluded from arenas where political choices about energy development are made, the latest scientific knowledge (e.g., social energy research [15,16]) does not become inscribed in policy design, nor projects themselves. In turn, this precludes synergies between SDG 7 (latest low-carbon energy science), SDG 9 (innovation), SDG 10 (equality), and SDG 16 (improved institutions). Unequal local access to capabilities and opportunities compromises innovation and productivity [17], and this leads to an underachievement of SDG 9.
Going forward, more productive interactions are needed between the different forms of knowledge: To fill the current need, and to avoid mismatch between problems and solutions [18], the author proposes to establish Research & Training Centres (RTCs) at national levels that can serve as an interface between the three communities.

Improve capabilities (RTCs)
Research & Training Centres (RTCs) at a national level are being proposed as collaborative spaces for climate-energy research [19]. Aside from conducting joint research and upskilling local talent, key functions of RTCs would be to communicate, demonstrate, and implement state-of-the-art climate compatible energy solutions based on contextualized technology assessment.

Improve legal and institutional framework
Climate and energy law: the linkage between the two is yet to be established; frameworks governing energy do not overlap with climate law.

Renewable energy law:
currently not comprehensive; it may include some renewables, but leave out others, such as biomass, biofuels, or geothermal.
Targets on renewables: while established in most countries, it remains unclear how they will be applied in both short and long-term planning, and in both urban and rural development. At the interface between climate and energy, many cities do not have specific renewable energy targets integrated in city strategies, and they lack empowered, resilience offices with a mandate to act.
All-of-energy matrix approach to energy transitions is still missing (for economic growth to be compatible with climate goals, the energy transition needs to be transformative-i.e., the participation of renewables in the overall energy matrix cannot be just an add-on, but instead must replace fossil fuels [5].