This preprint is under consideration at Parasites & Vectors. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research
Inter-annual variability of the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers affecting West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens population dynamics in Northeastern Italy
Diletta Fornasiero
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: Vector-borne infectious diseases (VBDs) represent a major public health concern worldwide. Among VBDs, West Nile Virus (WNV) showed an increasingly wider spread in temperate regions of Europe, including Italy. During the last decade, WNV outbreaks have been recurrently reported in mosquitoes, horses, wild birds, and humans, showing great variability in the temporal and spatial distribution pattern. Due to the complexity of the environment-host-vector-pathogen interaction and the incomplete understanding of the epidemiological pattern of the disease, WNV occurrences can be hardly predictable. The analyses of ecological drivers responsible for the earlier WNV reactivation and transmission are pivotal; in particular, variations in the vector population dynamics may represent a key point of the recent success of WNV and, more in general, of the VBDs.
Methods: We investigated the variations of Culex pipiens population abundance using environmental, climatic and trapping data obtained over nine years (2010 to 2018) through the WNV entomological surveillance program implemented in northeastern Italy. An Information Theoretic approach (IT-AICc) and model-averaging algorithms were implemented to examine the relationship between the seasonal mosquito population growth rates and both intrinsic (e.g. intraspecific competition) and extrinsic (e.g. environmental and climatic variables) predictors, to identify the most significant combinations of variables outlining the Cx. pipiens population dynamics.
Results: Population abundance (proxy for intraspecific competition) and length of daylight were the predominant factors regulating the mosquito population dynamics; however, also other drivers encompassing environmental and climatic variables had a significant impact, although sometimes counterintuitive and not univocal. The analyses of the single-year datasets, and the comparison with the results obtained from the overall model (all data available from 2010 to 2018), highlighted remarkable differences in coefficients magnitude, sign, and significance. These outcomes indicate that different combinations of factors might have distinctive, and sometimes divergent, effects on mosquito population dynamics.
Conclusions: A more realistic acquaintance of the intrinsic and extrinsic mechanism of mosquito population fluctuations in relation to continuous changes in environmental and climatic conditions is paramount to properly reinforce VBDs risk-based surveillance activities, to plan targeted density control measures and to implement effective early detection programs.
Keywords
Mosquitoes, Culex pipiens, population dynamics, West Nile, Italy
Figure 1
Figure 2
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 2
Posted 15 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 09 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major Revision
On 25 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 23 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 02 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 02 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 30 Jan, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 29 Jan, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Jan, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jan, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Jan, 2020
First submitted
On 31 Dec, 2019
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Parasitology
Learn more about our company.
This preprint is under consideration at Parasites & Vectors. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research
Inter-annual variability of the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers affecting West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens population dynamics in Northeastern Italy
Diletta Fornasiero
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 2
Posted 15 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 09 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 08 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 08 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major Revision
On 25 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 23 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 02 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 02 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 30 Jan, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 29 Jan, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Jan, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jan, 2020
Editor assigned
On 02 Jan, 2020
First submitted
On 31 Dec, 2019
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Parasitology
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: Vector-borne infectious diseases (VBDs) represent a major public health concern worldwide. Among VBDs, West Nile Virus (WNV) showed an increasingly wider spread in temperate regions of Europe, including Italy. During the last decade, WNV outbreaks have been recurrently reported in mosquitoes, horses, wild birds, and humans, showing great variability in the temporal and spatial distribution pattern. Due to the complexity of the environment-host-vector-pathogen interaction and the incomplete understanding of the epidemiological pattern of the disease, WNV occurrences can be hardly predictable. The analyses of ecological drivers responsible for the earlier WNV reactivation and transmission are pivotal; in particular, variations in the vector population dynamics may represent a key point of the recent success of WNV and, more in general, of the VBDs.
Methods: We investigated the variations of Culex pipiens population abundance using environmental, climatic and trapping data obtained over nine years (2010 to 2018) through the WNV entomological surveillance program implemented in northeastern Italy. An Information Theoretic approach (IT-AICc) and model-averaging algorithms were implemented to examine the relationship between the seasonal mosquito population growth rates and both intrinsic (e.g. intraspecific competition) and extrinsic (e.g. environmental and climatic variables) predictors, to identify the most significant combinations of variables outlining the Cx. pipiens population dynamics.
Results: Population abundance (proxy for intraspecific competition) and length of daylight were the predominant factors regulating the mosquito population dynamics; however, also other drivers encompassing environmental and climatic variables had a significant impact, although sometimes counterintuitive and not univocal. The analyses of the single-year datasets, and the comparison with the results obtained from the overall model (all data available from 2010 to 2018), highlighted remarkable differences in coefficients magnitude, sign, and significance. These outcomes indicate that different combinations of factors might have distinctive, and sometimes divergent, effects on mosquito population dynamics.
Conclusions: A more realistic acquaintance of the intrinsic and extrinsic mechanism of mosquito population fluctuations in relation to continuous changes in environmental and climatic conditions is paramount to properly reinforce VBDs risk-based surveillance activities, to plan targeted density control measures and to implement effective early detection programs.
Figure 1
Figure 2