Descriptive analyses
The number of testing during the first 100 days of COVID-19 epidemic was 14,938. The daily mean of testing was 149.4; the median 126.5 and the mode zero (see Table 1).
Table 1: Trend of testing; and confirmed cases, case-contacts, recovered patients and COVID-19 related deaths during the first 100 days of COVID-19 in Mali
|
Testing
|
Confirmed cases
|
Case-contacts
|
Recovered Patients
|
Covid-19 related deaths
|
Mean
|
149.4
|
22.60
|
128.64
|
14.02
|
1.17
|
Median
|
126.50
|
19.00
|
114.00
|
14.00
|
1.00
|
Mode
|
0.00
|
19.00
|
7.00a
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Standard deviation
|
137.51
|
16.74
|
96.60
|
13.03
|
1.295
|
Minimum
|
0.00
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Maximum
|
654.00
|
81.00
|
536.00
|
61.00
|
6.00
|
Total
|
14938.00
|
2260.00
|
12864.00
|
1502.00
|
117.00
|
The total number of confirmed cases was 2,260.0, with a mean of 22.6 cases a day, a median of 19.0 and a mode of 19.00. The total number of recovered patients was 1502.00, the mean 14.02, the median 14.00 and the mode 0.00. The total number of COVID 19 related deaths was 117.00 with a mean of 1.2 deaths a day, a median of 1.00 and a mode of 0.00. The total number of case-contacts traced during the study period was 12,864.00. The mean was 128.6 contacts traced a day and the median 114.0. The trend curves of the number of testing, confirmed cases, case-contacts, recovered patients and COVID-19 related deaths all had a sawtooth pattern. Figure 1 shows the trend curve for confirmed cases. Examining the various distributions, only the number of confirmed cases and the number of COVID-19 related deaths had a normal distribution (see Figure 1). Descriptive analyses also showed that 5.17% of the confirmed cases dead during the first 100 days of COVID-19.
Finally, the descriptive analyses showed that 42 geographic locations from 9 regions were affected by the epidemic (see Table 2). These 9 regions include Bamako, Tombouctou, Mopti, Koulikoro, Kayes, Kidal, Sikasso, Gao, Segou. The regions with the most confirmed cases were Bamako, Tombouctou and Mopti. The regions of Sikasso and Ségou were among the least affected regions.
Table 2: Distribution of confirmed cases, COVID-19 related deaths and lethality by geographic location
Localiy
|
Confirmed cases
|
COVID-19 related deaths
|
Lethality%
|
Bamako District
|
1071
|
68
|
6,35
|
Commune I
|
130
|
7
|
5.38
|
Commune II
|
98
|
4
|
4.08
|
CIII
|
95
|
14
|
14.74
|
CIV
|
219
|
4
|
1.83
|
CV
|
231
|
16
|
6.93
|
CVI
|
298
|
23
|
7.72
|
Tombouctou region
|
522
|
9
|
1.72
|
Tombouctou
|
483
|
9
|
1.86
|
Goundam
|
11
|
0
|
0.00
|
Djiré
|
19
|
0
|
0.00
|
Rharous
|
9
|
0
|
0.00
|
Mopti region
|
235
|
22
|
9.36
|
Mopti
|
144
|
12
|
8.33
|
Douentza
|
23
|
4
|
17.39
|
Sévaré
|
10
|
0
|
0.00
|
Kona
|
2
|
0
|
0.00
|
Koro
|
10
|
1
|
10.00
|
Youwarou
|
4
|
1
|
25.00
|
Bankass
|
6
|
2
|
33.33
|
Djenne
|
13
|
0
|
0.00
|
Bandiangara
|
22
|
2
|
9.09
|
Koulikoro region
|
166
|
3
|
1.81
|
Kalabancoro
|
92
|
2
|
2.17
|
Kati
|
71
|
0
|
0.00
|
Koulikoro
|
2
|
1
|
50.00
|
Fana
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
Kayes region
|
106
|
4
|
3.77
|
Kayes
|
53
|
2
|
3.77
|
Kéniéba
|
33
|
0
|
0.00
|
Yelimane
|
4
|
2
|
50.00
|
Kita
|
5
|
0
|
0.00
|
Sadiola
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
Diamou
|
9
|
0
|
0.00
|
Bafoulabé
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
Kidal region
|
47
|
0
|
0.00
|
Kidal
|
47
|
0
|
0.00
|
Sikasso region
|
43
|
4
|
9.30
|
Sikasso
|
7
|
2
|
28.57
|
Yanfolila
|
3
|
0
|
0.00
|
Koutiala
|
33
|
2
|
6.06
|
Gao region
|
47
|
2
|
4.26
|
Gao
|
46
|
2
|
4.35
|
Ansongo
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
Ségou region
|
23
|
5
|
21.74
|
Ségou
|
18
|
4
|
22.22
|
San
|
2
|
1
|
50.00
|
Niono
|
2
|
0
|
0.00
|
Markala
|
1
|
0
|
0.00
|
Ménaka region
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Taoudenit region
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total
|
2,260
|
117
|
5.18
|
Correlation analysis
Correlation analyses showed that the number of confirmed cases was positively correlated with the number of testing, case-contacts, recovered patients and COVID-19 related deaths (see Table 3). In other words, during the first 100 years of COVID-19 the increase in the number of confirmed cases was correlated with the increase in the number of testing, case-contacts, recovered patients and COVID-19 related deaths.
Table 3: Correlation between the number of tested samples; and confirmed, recovered, dead and contacts cases
|
Confirmed cases
|
Tested samples
|
Cured cases
|
Deceased cases
|
Contact cases
|
Rho de Spearman
|
Confirmed cases
|
Correlation Coefficient
|
1.000
|
|
|
|
|
Sig. (bilatéral)
|
.
|
|
|
|
|
Tested samples
|
Correlation Coefficient
|
.587**
|
1.000
|
|
|
|
Sig. (bilatéral)
|
.000
|
.
|
|
|
|
Recovered patients
|
Correlation Coefficient
|
.429**
|
.618**
|
1.000
|
|
|
Sig. (bilatéral)
|
.000
|
.000
|
.
|
|
|
Dead cases
|
Correlation Coefficient
|
.261**
|
.219*
|
.202*
|
1.000
|
|
Sig. (bilatéral)
|
.009
|
.029
|
.044
|
.
|
|
Contact cases
|
Correlation Coefficient
|
.189
|
.039
|
-.033
|
.106
|
1,000
|
Sig. (bilatéral)
|
.060
|
.699
|
.748
|
.294
|
.
|
**. The correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (bilateral).
*. The correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (bilateral).