3.1 Search results
The search strategy identified 29,033 publications. After a review of titles, abstracts, and exclusion of duplicates, 756 articles underwent thorough review (Fig. 1). Application of the exclusion criteria yielded fifteen studies (9 manuscripts, 6 conference abstracts), encompassing a total of 1,212 patients (Table 1).16–30 A diagnosis of CD was captured for 769 patients, and a diagnosis of UC was provided for 443 patients.
Table 1
Characteristics of studies included in meta-analysis.
Study
|
Country
|
Study design
|
DR criteria
|
Patients evaluated for DR
|
Anti-TNF
|
Concomitant Therapeutics
|
Time of DR assessment
|
Prior Anti-TNF Use
|
UC
|
CD
|
Sebkova 2012
|
Czech Republic
|
Retro
|
CDAI < 150, no mucosal ulcerations
|
-
|
60
|
IFX† or ADA‡
|
IMM§ (not specified, used in 30/60)
|
1 year
|
Yes (17/60)
|
Vadan 2012
|
Romania
|
Pro
|
CDAI < 150, no mucosal ulcerations
|
-
|
49*
|
IFX†
|
IMM§ (5/49)
|
1 year
|
No
|
Vadan 2013
|
Romania
|
Pro
|
CDAI < 150, no mucosal ulcerations
|
|
49*
|
IFX†
|
IMM§ (5/49)
|
6 months
|
No
|
De Vos 2013
|
Belgium
|
Pro
|
Partial Mayo < 3, endo Mayo 0
|
87
|
-
|
IFX†
|
AZA¶ (60/87)
|
1 year
|
No
|
Molander 2013
|
Finland
|
Retro
|
No clinical symptoms, SES-CD 0–2, endo Mayo 0–1
|
69
|
183
|
IFX† or ADA‡
|
AZA¶ (140/252), 6MP (23/252), MTX (22/252)
|
2 year
|
Not specified
|
Dai 2014
|
China
|
Pro
|
CDAI < 150, Mayo < 2, SES-CD 0–3, endo Mayo 0
|
107
|
109
|
IFX†
|
IMM§ (66/109 CD, 34/107 UC)
|
1 year
|
Yes (17 CD, 3 UC)
|
Echarri 2015
|
Spain
|
Pro
|
HBI < 5, SES-CD 0–2
|
-
|
64
|
ADA‡
|
AZA¶ (44/68), steroids (56/68)
|
6 months, 1 year, 2 year
|
No
|
Yu 2015
|
China
|
Retro
|
CDAI < 150, SES-CD 0–2
|
-
|
106
|
IFX†
|
AZA¶ (49/106)
|
8 weeks
|
No
|
Magro 2016
|
Portugal
|
Pro
|
Mayo 0–2, endo Mayo 0–1, Geboe’s score < 4
|
20
|
-
|
IFX†
|
AZA¶ (17/20)
|
8 weeks, 6 month, 1 year
|
No
|
Pineton de Chambrun 2016
|
France
|
Retro
|
Clinical physician assessment, no ulcerations
|
-
|
67
|
IFX†
|
AZA¶ (26/67)
|
2 year
|
No
|
Prymak 2016
|
Ukraine
|
Pro
|
CAI and UCEIS (not defined)
|
51
|
-
|
IFX†
|
Mesalamine + steroids (25/51)
|
8 weeks
|
No
|
Zhang 2016
|
China
|
Pro
|
CDAI < 150, no ulcerations
|
-
|
22
|
IFX†
|
None
|
6 month, 1 year, 2 year
|
No
|
Kaymak 2018
|
Switzerland
|
Retro
|
HBI < 5 or CDAI < 150, Fcal < 150 × 2 years, no ulcerations (endoscopic and histologically)
|
-
|
109
|
IFX†
|
Not specified; steroid refractory
|
2 year
|
Yes (11/109 prior ADA)
|
Kumar 2018
|
UK
|
Retro
|
CR + ER (undefined)
|
56
|
-
|
Golimumab
|
IMM§ (36/56)
|
1 year
|
Not specified
|
Munoz-Villafranca 2018
|
Spain
|
Pro
|
pMayo 0–2, endo Mayo 0–1
|
53
|
-
|
ADA‡
|
IMM§ (38/53)
|
8 weeks, 1 year
|
No
|
(†: infliximab; ‡: adalimumab; §: immunomodulators; ¶: azathioprine)
|
All studies originated in Europe with the exception of Yu 2015, Dai 2014, and Zhang 2016.18, 20, 21 Nine studies were prospective in design,16, 18, 19, 21, 23, 24, 27–29 and seven were carried out at multiple institutions.16, 17, 19, 20, 23, 24, 30 No phase IV trials were identified for inclusion. Two studies defined deep remission (DR) beyond the minimum criteria of clinical remission and endoscopic remission – Magro 2016 included histologic remission defined as a Geboe’s score < 4, and Kaymak 2018 supplemented both histologic remission and two years of biochemical remission (fecal calprotectin < 150).22, 24 Two conference abstracts used the same cohort and reported rates of DR at different time points, therefore this cohort was only counted one time.27, 28 Ten studies featured only infliximab (IFX),16, 18, 20–22, 24, 26–29 two used only adalimumab (ADA),19, 23 one study assessed golimumab,30 and two studies incorporated both IFX and ADA.17, 25 Pineton de Chambrun 2016 reported that 65% of DR patients received concomitant therapy with AZA, whereas only 28% of their non-DR group was receiving concomitant AZA. Other studies did not specify concomitant therapy use. Most included studies did not specify the number of cases with perianal or fistulizing disease, precluding additional statistics for this sub-population of patients. Similarly, the majority of studies evaluating CD did not clearly indicate if patients were pre-operative, though most were TNF naïve. No studies reported use of biosimilar agents. The heterogeneities of studies are reported (Supplementary Table 1).
3.2 Quality of studies and risk of bias
The Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to evaluate and assign a point value to each study for quality and risk of bias (Supplementary Table 2).13 Studies received a point for “adequacy of follow up of cohorts” if their reported outcomes accounted for attrition. All included studies received between five and six points on the NOS, suggesting that they carried an intermediate risk of bias. Two studies, De Vos 2013 and Zhang 2016, included patients already in clinical remission, additional sensitivity analyses were run with these studies excluded (Supplementary Fig. 1).16, 21
3.3 Achieving deep remission at 8 weeks, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years
Four studies reported a combined 36.4% (95% CI: 12.6–69.4%) rate (86/230 patients) of achieving DR at eight weeks.20, 23, 24, 29 Four studies reported the rate of DR at six months,19, 21, 24, 28 with 39.1% (95% CI: 10.4–78.0%), or 62/155 patients, achieving the treatment target (Fig. 2). Of these four studies, Zhang 2016 only included patients already in clinical remission.21 Sensitivity analysis with Zhang 2016 removed demonstrated a 32.8% rate of deep remission at six months (Supplementary Fig. 1). Funnel plots (Supplementary Fig. 2) and Egger’s test for both eight weeks and six months did not detect publication bias (eight week: Egger’s t-value 0.056, p = 0.480; six month: Egger’s t-value = 2.002, p = 0.091).
Nine studies reported the rate of DR at one-year follow-up,16, 18, 19, 21, 23–25, 27, 30 with 44.4% (95% CI: 34.6–54.6%) of patients (285/616) achieving DR. Five studies reported rates of DR at two years, with 36% (95% CI: 18.7–58%) of patients (182/490) in DR (Fig. 2).17, 19, 21, 22, 26 For one year, De Vos 2013 and Zhang 2016 only included patients already in clinical remission.16, 21 Sensitivity analysis with Zhang 2016 and De Vos 2013 removed demonstrated a 42.3% rate of deep remission at one year, and sensitivity analysis with Zhang 2016 removed at two year analysis had a deep remission rate of 27.8% (Supplementary Fig. 1). Funnel plots (Supplementary Fig. 2) and Egger’s test at one-year and two-years did not demonstrate publication bias (one year: Egger’s t-value = 0.703, p = 0.252; two years: Egger’s t-value = 0.673, p = 0.275).
3.4 Achieving deep remission in Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis
Crohn’s Disease (CD): Ten studies reported rates of DR in 769 patients with CD between eight weeks and 2 years.17–22, 25–28 At eight weeks, one study reported 18.9% DR.20 DR at six months was reported by three studies to be 7.8% (Echarri 2015), 59.1% (Zhang 2016), and 79.6% (Vadan 2013).19, 21, 28 DR at two years was reported by five studies to be 43.2% (Molander 2013), 37.5% (Echarri 2015), 77.3% (Zhang 2016), 7.3% (Kaymak 2018), and 29.9% (Pineton de Chambrun 2016).17, 19, 21, 22, 26 DR in CD was reported at one year by five studies (Fig. 3) and found to be 48.6% (95% CI: 32.8–64.7%) in 139/293 patients.18, 19, 21, 25, 27 Sensitivity analysis with Zhang 2016 removed resulted in a 42.1% rate of deep remission (Supplementary Fig. 1). Funnel plot and Egger’s test did not demonstrate publication bias.
Ulcerative Colitis (UC): Seven studies reported the rate of DR in 353 UC patients between eight weeks and 2 years.16–18, 23, 24, 29, 30 DR at eight weeks was reported in three studies to be 43.4% (Munoz-Villafranca 2018),23 10% (Magro 2016),24 and 80.4% (Prymak 2016).29 DR at six months was reported in one study (Magro 2016) to be 25%.24 DR at two years was reported in one study (Molander 2013) to be 62.3%.17 DR in UC was reported at one-year by five studies (Fig. 3) and found to be 43.6% (95% CI: 32.8–55.1%) in 146/323 patients.16, 18, 23, 24, 30 Sensitivity analysis with De Vos 2013 removed resulted in a 46.6% deep remission rate at one year (Supplementary Fig. 1). Funnel plot and Egger’s test did not demonstrate publication bias.
3.5 Deep remission in biologic naïve patients
Ten studies specifically indicated that patients were naïve to, or not previously treated with, biologic treatments.16, 19–21, 23, 24, 26–29 Rates of DR in biologic naïve patients (Fig. 4) was 36.4% (95% CI: 12.6–69.4%) in 86/229 patients at eight weeks in four studies,20, 23, 24, 29 39.1% (95% CI: 10.4–78%) in 62/155 patients at 6 months in four studies,19, 21, 24, 28 47.2% (95% CI: 34.5–60.4%) in 129/284 patients at one year in six studies,16, 19, 21, 23, 24, 27 and 46.7% (95% CI: 23.9–71%) in 52/129 patients at two years in three studies.19, 21, 26 Funnel plot and Egger’s tests did not demonstrate publication bias except for 2 years (Egger’s t-value = 8.607, p = 0.037).
3.6 Deep remission in patients treated with infliximab
The majority of studies primarily included patients treated with infliximab (IFX), therefore additional analyses excluding studies which did not utilize infliximab were conducted to determine rates of DR with IFX. Meta-analysis excluding Sebkova 2012, Kumar 2018, Echarri 2015, and Munoz-Villafranca 2018 demonstrated an IBD deep remission rate of 48.6% at one year (Fig. 5). Sensitivity analysis at two years with the non-IFX studies Echarri 2015 removed, and excluding non-IFX cases from Molander 2013, resulted in a deep remission rate of 36.8% (Fig. 5). Sensitivity analysis with Echarri 2015 removed found a 51.5% rate of deep remission in CD at one year in patient’s receiving infliximab (Fig. 5). Analysis of deep remission in UC at one year demonstrated a rate of 39.9% with non-infliximab studies removed (Fig. 5).