Cut-off Level of mHScore and Baseline Characteristics
The ROC curves for the mHScore at various perioperative times for prediction of post-LTX prognosis are shown in Figure 1. The median cut-off level of mHScore for the prediction of postoperative prognosis based on the 3-months post-LTX data was 104.0 (area under the curve = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.645‒0.779; p < 0.001; Fig. 1) and the cut-off level at 3, 6, and 12-months were similar. This cut-off value corresponded to a sensitivity of 65.2% and specificity of 75.3%. Based on this cut-off value, 180 (61.2%) and 114 (38.8%) patients were classified into the low mHScore (≤104.0) and high mHScore (> 104.0) groups, respectively.
The baseline characteristics of all patients who underwent LTX are shown in Table 1. The most common reason for LTX was idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in both groups. There was no significant difference between low and high HScore groups in the following preoperative parameters: age, sex, BMI, comorbidities, primary lung disease, preoperative mechanical ventilation, preoperative ECMO, donor‒recipient TLC ratio, and donor P/F ratio. Table 2 presents the explanatory variables of inflammatory marker levels in LTX patients categorized by mHScore. LDH and CRP levels were significantly higher in the high than in the low mHScore group.
Table 1. Basal characteristics of patients classified by mHScore after lung transplantation.
Variables
|
Total (n = 294)
|
Low mHScore (n = 180)
|
High mHScore (n = 114)
|
p-value
|
Age, years
|
53.8 ± 12.5
|
52.7 ± 12.2
|
55.5 ± 12.7
|
0.058
|
Male sex, n (%)
|
141 (48.0)
|
84 (46.7)
|
57 (50.0)
|
0.331
|
Body mass index, kg/m
|
20.9 ± 4.1
|
21.0 ± 3.7
|
20.8 ± 4.6
|
0.658
|
Comorbidity
|
Hypertension, n (%)
|
67 (22.8)
|
46 (25.6)
|
21 (18.4)
|
0.248
|
Diabetes mellitus, n (%)
|
80 (27.2)
|
48 (26.7)
|
32 (28.1)
|
0.683
|
Primary lung disease
|
IPF, n (%)
|
153 (52.0)
|
96 (53.3)
|
57 (50.0)
|
0.632
|
CTD ILD, n (%)
|
50 (17.0)
|
30 (16.7)
|
20 (17.5)
|
0.874
|
BE, n (%)
|
18 (6.1)
|
113 (62.8)
|
5 (4.4)
|
0.455
|
LAM, n (%)
|
5 (1.7)
|
3 (1.7)
|
2 (1.8)
|
1.000
|
COPD, n (%)
|
11 (3.7)
|
8 (4.4)
|
3 (2.6)
|
0.538
|
BO after PBSCT, n (%)
|
23 (7.8)
|
12 (6.7)
|
11 (9.6)
|
0.378
|
Others*, n (%)
|
34 (11.6)
|
18 (10.0)
|
16 (14.0)
|
0.350
|
Preoperative MV, n (%)
|
106 (36.1)
|
67 (37.2)
|
39 (34.2)
|
1.000
|
Preoperative ECMO, n (%)
|
88 (29.9)
|
59 (32.8)
|
29 (25.4)
|
0.353
|
Donor-recipient TLC ratio
|
107.3 ± 18.8
|
107.9 ± 18.1
|
106.2 ± 19.9
|
0.478
|
Donor P/F ratio
|
455.6 ± 92.5
|
462.3 ± 92.2
|
444.8 ± 92.5
|
0.126
|
Values are expressed as means (standard deviations) or median (interquartile ranges).
mHScore, modified hemophagocytic syndrome score; IPF, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; CTD ILD, connective tissue disease interstitial lung disease; BE, bronchiectasis; LAM, lymphangioleiomyomatosis; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; BO after PBSCT, bronchiolitis obliterans after peripheral blood stem cell transplantation; MV, mechanical ventilation; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; TLC, total lung capacity; P/F, ratio of arterial oxygen concentration to the fraction of inspired oxygen. *‘Others’ include non-specific interstitial pneumonia, pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and acute fibrinous and organizing pneumonia.
Table 2. Assessment of variables in patients classified by mHScore after lung transplantation.
|
Low mHScore
(n = 180)
|
High mHScore
(n = 114)
|
p value
|
Leukocyte count, 10 /liter
|
6.6 (4.3)
|
6.2 (4.6)
|
0.327
|
Hemoglobin, gm/dl
|
11.2 (1.9)
|
9.6 (2.0)
|
0.675
|
Platelets, 10 /liter
|
239.7 (105.6)
|
153.5 (106.5)
|
0.809
|
Ferritin, ng/ml
|
618.6 (1099.7)
|
3296.6 (6680.1)
|
<0.001
|
LDH, IU/liter
|
361.5 (164.6)
|
626.2 (814.7)
|
<0.001
|
Triglycerides, mmoles/liter
|
167.45 (95.9)
|
225.9 (157.1)
|
<0.001
|
SGOT, IU/liter
|
88.1 (523.9)
|
298.4 (1018.5)
|
<0.001
|
SGPT, IU/liter
|
35.8 (101.9)
|
64.0 (154.9)
|
0.027
|
Fibrinogen, mg/dl
|
300.6 (119.5)
|
314.9 (140.8)
|
0.072
|
CRP, mg/L
|
19.9 (54.0)
|
46.0 (666.7)
|
0.001
|
Values are expressed as means (standard deviations). mHScore, modified hemophagocytic syndrome score; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; SGOT, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase; SGPT, serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase; CRP, C-reactive protein.
Relationship between Postoperative mHScore and Postoperative Overall Survival
Univariate analysis revealed that age, BMI, high mHScore, donor P/F ratio, LDH, and CRP level were independent prognostic factors for post-LTX survival (Table 3). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using factors that achieved p < 0.05 in the bivariate analysis. The HR was 3.013 (95% CI: 1.451‒6.257; p = 0.003) for a high mHScore. Other independent risk factors for postoperative prognosis were age (HR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.001‒1.074, p = 0.044), BMI (HR 1.130, 95% CI: 1.026‒1.245, p = 0.013), donor P/F ratio (HR 0.995, 95% CI: 0.991‒0.999 p = 0.010), LDH (HR 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001‒1.006, p = 0.002), and CRP level (HR 1.038, 95% CI: 1.020‒1.056, p < 0.001).
The Kaplan‒Meier plots for the low and high mHScore groups are shown in Figure 2. The overall survival rate was significantly higher in the high mHScore group than in the low mHScore group (log-rank test; p < 0.001).
Table 3. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis of the association between various parameters and survival after lung transplantation.
|
Univariate analysis
|
Multivariate analysis*
|
Variables
|
HR (95% CI)
|
p value
|
HR (95% CI)
|
p value
|
Age, years
|
1.053 (1.027-1.081)
|
<0.001
|
1.037 (1.001-1.074)
|
0.044
|
Male sex
|
1.131 (0.683-1.872)
|
0.632
|
|
Body mass index, kg/m
|
1.123 (1.052-1.200)
|
0.000
|
1.130 (1.026-1.245)
|
0.013
|
Comorbidity
|
Hypertension
|
1.098 (0.624-1.931)
|
0.747
|
|
|
Diabetes mellitus
|
1.101 (0.645-1.877)
|
0.725
|
|
|
Primary lung disease
|
IPF
|
1.274 (0.781-2.076)
|
0.332
|
|
|
CTD ILD
|
1.046 (0.556-1.964)
|
0.890
|
|
|
BE
|
0.463 (0.148-1.446)
|
0.185
|
|
|
LAM
|
0.000 (0.000-0.000)
|
0.999
|
|
|
COPD
|
1.133 (0.312-4.113)
|
0.849
|
|
|
BO after PBSCT
|
0.344 (0.096-1.226)
|
0.100
|
|
|
Others
|
1.670 (0.771-3.616)
|
0.194
|
|
|
mHScore
|
Low mHScore (<104)
|
|
|
|
|
High mHScore (≥104)
|
4.429 (2.634-7.445)
|
0.000
|
3.013 (1.451-6.257)
|
0.003
|
Preoperative MV, n (%)
|
1.368 (0.823-2.273)
|
0.226
|
|
|
Preoperative ECMO, n (%)
|
1.060 (0.623-1.801)
|
0.830
|
|
|
Donor-recipient TLC
|
1.006 (0.993-1.019)
|
0.368
|
|
|
Donor P/F ratio
|
0.995 (0.992-0.998)
|
<0.001
|
0.995 (0.991-0.999)
|
0.010
|
Leukocyte count, 10 /liter
|
1.105 (1.040-1.174)
|
0.001
|
|
|
Hemoglobin, gm/dl
|
0.601 (0.514-0.703)
|
<0.001
|
|
|
Platelets, 10 /liter
|
0.991 (0.988-0.994)
|
<0.001
|
|
|
Ferritin, ng/ml
|
1.001 (1.001-1.001)
|
<0.001
|
|
|
Fibrinogen, mg/dl
|
1.001 (0.999-1.003)
|
0.357
|
|
|
Triglycerides, mmoles/liter
|
1.002 (1.000-1.004)
|
0.059
|
|
|
SGOT, IU/liter
|
1.025 (1.012-1.037)
|
<0.001
|
|
|
LDH
|
1.006 (1.004-1.007)
|
<0.001
|
1.004 (1.001-1.006)
|
0.002
|
CRP, mg/L
|
1.044 (1.028-1.060)
|
<0.001
|
1.038 (1.020-1.056)
|
<0.001
|
HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; mHScore, modified hemophagocytic syndrome score; IPF, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; CTD ILD, connective tissue disease interstitial lung disease; BE, bronchiectasis; LAM, lymphangioleiomyomatosis; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; BO after PBSCT, bronchiolitis obliterans after peripheral blood stem cell transplantation; MV, mechanical ventilation; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; TLC, total lung capacity; P/F, ratio of arterial oxygen concentration to the fraction of inspired oxygen; SGOT, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; CRP, C-reactive protein. *The multivariable logistic regression model was done by adjusting for age, sex, BMI, P/F ratio, LDH, and CRP.
Relationship between Postoperative mHScore and Causative Postoperative Complications
We also analyzed the correlation between the mHScore and the incidence of postoperative complications (Table 4). The proportions of patients requiring renal replacement therapy and with postoperative bleeding were significantly higher for the high mHScore group than in the low mHScore group (64.9% vs. 30.0%, p < 0.001; 27.4% vs. 8.9%, p < 0.001, respectively). The incidence of PGD ≥ grade 3 was significantly higher in the high mHScore group than in the low mHScore group (59.6% vs. 46.7%, p = 0.032). Although not statistically significant, the incidence of acute rejection was higher in the high mHScore group (7.9% vs. 2.8%, p = 0.053). In addition, the duration of intensive care unit admission after LTX and the duration of time on ECMO after LTX were significantly longer in the high mHScore group than the low mHScore group.
Table 4. Causative postoperative complications in patients classified by mHScore after lung transplantation.
Characteristics
|
Total (n = 294)
|
Low mHScore
(n = 180)
|
High mHScore
(n = 114)
|
p-value
|
AKI, n (%)
|
73 (24.8)
|
39 (21.7)
|
34 (29.8)
|
0.181
|
RRT, n (%)
|
128 (42.4)
|
54 (30.0)
|
74 (64.9)
|
<0.001
|
Pneumonia, n (%)
|
69 (23.5)
|
47 (26.1)
|
22 (19.3)
|
0.205
|
Sepsis, n (%)
|
33 (11.2)
|
19 (10.6)
|
14 (12.3)
|
0.706
|
TTP, n (%)
|
16 (5.4)
|
8 (4.4)
|
8 (7.0)
|
0.430
|
HUS, n (%)
|
6 (2.0)
|
3 (1.7)
|
3 (2.6)
|
0.680
|
HLH, n (%)
|
8 (2.7)
|
3 (1.7)
|
5 (4.4)
|
0.268
|
BPF, n (%)
|
19 (6.5)
|
9 (5.0)
|
10 (8.8)
|
0.228
|
Bronchial stenosis, n (%)
|
41 (13.9)
|
24 (13.3)
|
17 (14.9)
|
0.732
|
Postoperative bleeding, n (%)
|
47 (16.0)
|
16 (8.9)
|
31 (27.4)
|
<0.001
|
GI bleeding, n (%)
|
23 (7.8)
|
16 (8.9)
|
7 (6.1)
|
0.505
|
Acute rejection
|
14 (4.8)
|
5 (2.8)
|
9 (7.9)
|
0.053
|
Grade 3 PGD, n (%)
|
152 (51.7)
|
84 (46.7)
|
68 (59.6)
|
0.032
|
Postoperative ICU LOS, days
|
16.1 (24.0)
|
13.1 (15.5)
|
21.0 (33.0)
|
0.004
|
Postoperative ECMO, days
|
5.0 (30.7)
|
1.7 (2.5)
|
10.4 (49.6)
|
<0.001
|
Values are expressed as means (standard deviations). mHScore, modified hemophagocytic syndrome score; AKI, acute kidney injury; RRT, renal replacement therapy; TTP, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura; HUS, hemolytic uremic syndrome; HLH, hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis; BPF, bronchopleural fistula; GI, gastrointestinal; PGD, primary graft dysfunction; LOS, length of stay; ICU, intensive care unit; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.