Activity pattern of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in Machiara National Park, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan

The Asiatic black bear is considered an indicator species of the environment, hence, any change in the environment may alter its activity pattern. We monitored the monthly activity pattern of black bears in the moist temperate forests of Machiara National Park, AJ&K, Pakistan. We used infrared camera traps and indigenous knowledge for data collection from April 2019 to April 2021. Camera traps recorded 109 (inside the forest = 107, outside the forest = 2) independent registrations (IR) within 5541 (692.63 ± 36.72, mean ± SD) camera days. We found that (i) spring and autumn were the lowest activity seasons of black bears inside the forest. (ii) Whereas, the highest activities were recorded in summer with peak activities in August followed by July (χ 2 = 203.5, df= 7, P< 0.05). (iii) The activity level sharply declined after August and halted from late November to late April which was clear indication of bears’ hibernation period. We collected indigenous knowledge from 70 selected persons, including hunters, herders, temporary residents and crop raiding victims. We used the data of human observation of latest three years and found that (i) bears remained active from May to November and hibernated rest of the period. (ii) The activities were at their peak inside the forest in summer (May – August) and out of the forest in autumn (September – November) when it preferred to raid the widely cultivated maize crop (Zea mays) in the area. The capturing of black bears by camera traps outside the forest further supported the data provided by local people. Such switching over might have occurred due to the food preferences for Zea mays or easy access to abundant food availability out of the forest area. The current data can help mitigate human black bears conict and consequently future conservation of black bears in the area.


Introduction
The Asiatic black bear is categorized as vulnerable under the IUCN red list of threatened species and considered as critically endangered species in Pakistan with population of 1000 individuals (Liu et  Previous studies reported high intensities of human black bears con icts in Pakistan ; Kazmi et al. 2019;Waseem et al. 2020;Zahoor et al. 2021c;Zahoor et al. 2021d), however, there is no study available on activity pattern of black bears. In Taiwan, it was reported that in oak poor season, bears activity decreased and vice versa (Hwang and Garshelis 2007). Social stimulus, competition, predation, maternal behavior, and human disturbances (i.e., habitat degradation, hunting, and tourism) are also reported to affect the activity patterns in animals ( In present study, infrared camera traps were deployed and interviews were conducted to collect information on pre-designed questionnaires to explore the activity pattern of black bears in Machiara National Park (MNP), AJ&K, Pakistan. We hypothesized that (i) black bears would be highly active in summer and autumn seasons. (ii) Hibernation period of black bears under moist temperate conditions should be longer than the bears living under subtropical and warm temperate conditions (Reid et al.1991;Zahoor et al. 2021a). The study aimed to nd out (i) the monthly activity pattern and (ii) hibernation period of the Asiatic black bears under the moist temperate environmental conditions. The study would help to mitigate the human-black bears con icts in and around the MNP and thus could be important for the management and conservation of black bears in the future.

Study area
The study was conducted in the Machiara National Park located at 73.512879 E to 73.765536 E and 34.392427 N to 34.588498 N, covering an area of 13,532 ha which was previously declared as game reserve and later on upgraded to the national park in 1996 ( The mean annual temperature ranges from 14-27°C and mean annual rainfall is 1526.7 mm, with an average 84.5 rainy days/year. July (327.6 mm) is considered as the wettest month, while November (Dar et al. 2009) as the driest month. Spring is the shortest season that lasts from March to April, while summer is the longest season and lasts from May to August. Autumn (September to November) and winter (December to February) both spread over 3 months each (

Camera trap deployment
Camera traps were deployed in consultation with wildlife department of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. We selected central area of MNP, with low risk of camera theft as human interference in this area was comparatively lower than that of other areas. We divided the area into 1km x 1km grids and deployed one camera trap in each grid except two grids (where two camera traps were deployed on the right and left sides of a stream of each grid). We deployed total 18 cameras (15 Bestguarder SG-008 and 3 Ereagle E1) from the end of April 2019 to the end of April 2021. In the beginning, we deployed 10 cameras on 27th April 2019, followed by 5 cameras in early June and 3 more cameras in early August 2019. Camera traps were deployed inside the forest (along ridges) with tree trunks and under the rocks and covered with identical twigs and leaves to camou age them properly against the risk of cameras theft. Due to minimum activity records in autumn 2019, one of the cameras was deployed out of the forest during autumn 2020, near crop elds at humans and livestock trails to check if there was any shift in the activity of black bears toward crop elds. Due to camera stealing issues, steep slopes and rugged terrain in the area, the heights of the cameras from ground were not uniform (Meek at al. 2014). The timing for capturing photos was set to capture 3 photos within 5 seconds with infrared ash. Monthly surveys were conducted to collect the data and replace the batteries even though cameras were still working with maximum battery charge.

Interviews of local communities
We selected communities adjacent to the forest zone, where we placed the camera traps for gathering information about black bears. We collected information from wildlife guards about the people who had ever seen black bears inside or outside the forest. We collected further information about black bears signs inside and outside the forests and its crop raiding pattern. To determine activity pattern of black bears, we used latest 3 years' data to minimize the chance of biasness. The data was primarily collected using questionnaires from temporary residents inside the forest area, herders, hunters, people who often visited the forest for vegetables, medicinal plants and re wood collection, and victims of the crop raiding (Supplementary 1). We collected data from males only with age above 18 years and due to given social, ethnic and religious issues we could not interview women of the area.

Data analysis
We pooled the camera trap data of both years, and related the days and months collectively for the comparison and statistical analysis. Animal detections were grouped based on 30 min and if two animals were captured in the same photo, their independent registration was counted separately (Zhang

Camera traps output
Out of all deployed cameras, 8 were stolen; 4 in June 2019, 1 in September 2019 and 3 in May 2020. We selected total 109 IR (including 2 IR near crop elds out the forest in September 2020) within 5541 (692.63 ± 36.72, mean ± SD) camera days (2796 camera days of hibernation period were excluded, Fig. 2). We found August as the highest capturing month (RAI = 7.39), followed by July (RAI = 5.22) and October (RAI = 0.84).

Indigenous data records
We interviewed total 70 males who had observed black bears directly during last 10 years. To nd monthly activity pattern of black bears, we included last three years' human observation (46 interviewees) data to minimize the biasness ( Monthly activity pattern Camera trap results indicated that black bears showed a varied activity pattern (in terms of RAI) with highly signi cant difference between months (Chi-square test, χ 2 = 203.5, df= 7, P< 0.05). Activities started slightly from April to May and increased sharply after June and attained maximum peak in August. The activity level sharply decreased afterward with a slight increase in the October and decreased again afterwards. Therefore, the months of the late spring to mid-summer and autumn were considered as least activity months while no activity from late November to late April was a clear indication of bears' hibernation period (Fig. 3a).
Total 48 people (out of 70) observed the black bears 78 times inside and outside the forests of Machiara National Park. Black bears were seen from May to November with highly signi cant difference in the observations between months (Chi-square test, χ 2 = 58.07, df= 6, P< 0.05). Most of the interviewees (35.90%) observed black bears in the month of September, followed by August (29.49%) and July (14.10%) while there had been few reports of black bears in November and May (2.62% in each month). No observation of black bears between December and April was an indication of its hibernation during these months (Fig. 3b).

Intensity of black bears activity in autumn (based on IK)
During autumn (September-November), most of the interviewees (88.72%) observed black bears outside the forest in crop elds, while some of them (11.28%) also reported to have seen black bears inside the forest. About 90% of the interviewees reported black bears out of the forest in September, October and November (Fig. 4).

Proposed strategies for bears conservation
Under such conditions we can predict more alarming situation in the future when food resources in the forests will further be depleted due to human population expansion, deforestation, agricultural practices, and climate change (Qasim et

Limitations of the study
The cameras were not deployed throughout the Machiara National Park due to highest rate of human activities in rest of the area. Given the high risk of camera theft, we deployed only one camera outside the forest area to monitor and compare the black bears activates. Even then 8 cameras deployed in comparatively low risk areas inside the forest were stolen during this study. We could not record the activities of black bears near crop elds in October and November due to insu cient deployment of camera traps. We could not collect the indigenous knowledge based data throughout the Machiara National Park, instead we were limited to collect the information from selected people residing in the vicinity of camera deployment sites. However, this study can play an important role to formulate the strategies for mitigating the human-black bears con ict in the area.

Conclusion And Suggestions
Black bears started activities from late April to late November in the Machiara National park that came to halt from late November to Late April (during hibernation). Results of camera traps recorded maximum activities of black bears in the summer while indigenous knowledge revealed maximum activities in the autumn. Indigenous knowledge and results of one camera (paced near crop elds) revealed that increased black bears activities out of the forest in the autumn was due to crop raiding. It might be due to the food preferences for Zea mays or easy access to abundant food availability that forced the bears to leave the forest area. We suggest to deploy more camera traps inside and outside the forests on bears dens and tracks near the crop elds to monitor the black bears activity in detail. We further suggest to launch community awareness programs prior to deployment of camera traps, particularly in the areas where human interference is very high. We believe that such steps will help explore the uctuations of bears activities inside and outside of the forests of Machiara National Park where con ict rate usually increases before hibernation (in autumn).