Rural areas account for 12% of global carbon emissions. China, as a major agricultural country, is exploring a low-carbon transformation model of rural energy as a necessary path to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This paper takes rural areas of Henan Province as an example to explore the path suitable for the low-carbon transformation of rural energy in Henan Province. The research results of this paper can be summarized into the following aspects.
(1) In this paper, the decoupling states between rural PC and TEC and its influencing factors in Henan Province are analyzed by using decoupling principle. The results show that there are different degrees of decoupling between TEC and PC.
(2) Since there is multicollinearity among the 6 influencing factors of TEC, and the same problem exists among the 6 influencing factors of PC. Therefore, based on STIRPAT model, this paper uses ridge regression method to fit the linear equations of TEC and PC, and the validity of the fitted equations are verified. Rather than simply summing up the primary energy consumption of rural Henan Province.
(3) In addition, this paper optimizes the BP neural network by PSO, and innovatively predicts the values of influencing factors of PC and TEC. The results show that the influencing factors gradually increase year by year. Among them, EIA and EE are basically unchanged, while POP gradually decreases. It is shown that the increase of V can increase PI, thus improving people's living standard, thus improving the work and study efficiency in rural areas, and conversely improving V. Which also means that each influencing factor is complementary to each other.
(4) Finally, the consumption of TEC and PC in 2020-2025 is obtained by STIRPAT using ridge regression. According to the forecast results, the consumption of TEC and PC will continue to increase year by year in 2020-2025. However, from 2022, the growth rate of PC will be greater than that of TEC. This is a good beginning of the low-carbon energy transition in Henan Province. Nonetheless, rural TEC in Henan Province will still be more dependent on fossil fuels in 2020-2025.
These conclusions can provide the following applicable policy implications for rural energy upgrading of Henan Province and other rural areas in China.
First, rural power grid upgrading should be accelerated. (1) Unified planning. The long-term goal of the unified construction of power grid, unified power grid equipment sequence, integrated distribution of power grid services, narrowing the gap between urban and rural power supply services, and promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural power grids. (2) Classified development. First, in light of different regions, strengthen power grids in cities and industrial clusters. Second, according to different voltage levels, the development of strong simplification and orderly, speed up the construction of 110 kv and 10 kv and below power grid, according to the principle of orderly advance and backward optimization of 35 kv power grid. (3) Hierarchical progress by region. While improving the overall power supply capacity of rural power grid in the whole province, we should adhere to the principle of "raising the low and controlling the high", improve the grid load ratio in backward areas, and control the load ratio in areas exceeding the upper limit of the guidelines. (4) High-standard construction. (5) Primary and secondary coordination.
Second, promote renewable energy generation. According to the characteristics of rural regional distribution and resource endowment, different power supply should be adopted. Clean and renewable energy should be the focus of future rural development in Henan Province under the "dual carbon" target. To build a clean and low-carbon rural energy supply system, with the focus on improving the intelligence level of power grids, promote the development of small hydropower, photovoltaic, wind power, methane and other renewable energy sources in rural areas, implement the substitution of electric energy and multi-energy complementarity, improve energy efficiency, and eliminate prominent problems such as high pollution and low energy efficiency in rural development.
Third, promote electric energy substitution projects. (1) To improve the quality of agriculture and promote the electrification of agricultural production. First, centering on the goal of high-standard farmland in Henan, the government should promote comprehensive matching of farmland, water, forest, roads and electricity, and turn more "wang-tian farmland" into "high-yield farmland". Second, promoting the application of technologies such as electric flue-cured tobacco, electric tea production, electric grain drying, heat pump drying of wood, and cold storage of fruits and vegetables, so as to ensure power consumption of intelligent planting and breeding bases and enhance agricultural electrification. (2) Build beautiful villages and electrify rural residents. First, choose heating technology according to local conditions. Second, do a good job in the construction of supporting power grids in the province's 400 villages with tourism characteristics and "1000 villages demonstration" villages. Third, accelerate the layout of charging infrastructure networks, and promote clean replacement projects for different types of vehicles, including buses, taxis, municipal and official vehicles, and private passenger vehicles.
Fourth, in the establishment of national subsidy policies, should be based on the level of agricultural development in the region. The improvement of agricultural mechanization level can promote rural economy and urbanization level. Thus, the V and PI of rural areas are improved, and the living standards of rural areas are improved, so that the work efficiency of rural areas is further improved, and a virtuous cycle is finally formed, which is the fundamental power of rural energy upgrading in Henan Province. The upgrade of rural energy can improve the utilization efficiency of rural energy, promote the great development of rural economy, improve the income of rural areas and offset the high cost of clean energy. Therefore, on the one hand, attention should be paid to the collaborative promotion of TEC and PC, while improving the use of PC in rural areas, the use quality of TEC should be improved, so as to reduce CO2 emissions in rural areas. On the other hand, agricultural mechanization can increase V and PI, thereby boosting the rural economy and thus offsetting the additional costs of renewable energy.