Model construction methods
Supplementary Figure 1.Schematic of Markov model in TreeAge Pro software
Supplementary Figure 2. Markov chain diagram
CHB=chronic hepatitis B infected; DC=decompensated cirrhosis; HCC=hepatic cell carcinoma; LT=liver transplantation
Supplementary Table 1. Annual transition probabilities of chronic HBV infection in natural history
Figures in the table were cited from a hepatitis B model study performed in Shanghai, China. Since dramatically unbalanced medical and economic development across the whole country, further adjustment according to approved LT centers distribution, economic level and population of each province, previous LT statistical reviews and reports were necessary to accurately approach to the real figure. We hereby assume the probability of receiving LT was same as Shanghai’s condition, however, only limited population was able to get access to or afford LT. The proportion was estimated to be 6%.
Supplementary Table 2. Annual transition probabilities of chronic HBV infection related to treatment
Supplementary Table 3. Estimated annual chronic HBV incidence and age distribution from 2006 to 2050
Estimated incidence and age distribution in 2006 derived from nation-wide survey data and population census data in National Bureau of Statistics of China; Thereafter annual incidence derived from China CDC; However, about 85% of reported incidence were chronic HBV infection according to Hui Zhuang’s (expert in hepatology) article and China CDC unpublished data. Age distribution from published epidemiologic study. And we assumed incidence and age distribution after 2017 were the same.
Supplementary Table 4. Estimated annual chronic HBV incidence and age distribution from 2018 to 2050 in WHO target, ideal 1, ideal 2 scenarios
Estimated incidence derived from WHO global health sectors strategy on viral hepatitis. Age distribution was supposed to be the same with 2017.
Supplementary Table 5. Parameters of WHO target and ideal 2 scenarios
Figures in the years of 2017, 2020, 2030 were cited from published articles or WHO official data.
Red figures: Dx% and Tx/eligible% figures were calculated directly by linear estimation.
Tx|Dx% figures were calculated through the formula.
Supplementary Table 6. Validation of base-case intermediate model results to published data
Supplementary Table 7. Validation of modeled natural history to published data
Supplementary Table 8. Results of 1-way sensitivity analysis (Part I)
C, DC, HCC items’ unit: million
LT items’ unit: thousand
Supplementary Table 9. Results of 1-way sensitivity analysis (part II)
C, DC, HCC items’ unit: million
LT items’ unit: thousand
Additional results
Supplementary Figure 3. Cumulative Cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT death
A: cirrhosis death; B: decompensated cirrhosis death; C: hepatocellular carcinoma death; D: liver transplantation death
Supplementary Figure 4. Annual Cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT death number
A: cirrhosis death; B: decompensated cirrhosis death; C: hepatocellular carcinoma death; D: liver transplantation death
Supplementary Figure 5. Total chronic HBV infection prevalence
Supplementary Table 10. Population characteristics of chronic HBV infected in 2006
Supplementary Table 11. Cumulative and annual incidence number of complications and related-death