See the published version of this preprint at Parasites & Vectors.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
Research
Ian Wright Pray
OHSU-PSU School of Public Health
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6935-5123
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background
The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a serious public health problem in rural low-resource areas of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, where the associated conditions of nuerocysticercosis (NCC) and porcine cysticercosis cause substantial health and economic harms. An accurate and validated transmission model for T. solium would serve as an important new tool for control and elimination, as it would allow for comparison of available intervention strategies, and prioritization of the most effective strategies for control and elimination efforts.
Methods
We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM) for T. solium (“CystiAgent”) that differs from prior T. solium models by including a spatial framework and behavioral parameters such as pig roaming, open human defecation, and human travel. In this article, we introduce the structure and function of the model, describe the data sources used to parameterize the model, and apply sensitivity analyses (Latin hypercube sampling–partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC)) to evaluate model parameters.
Results
LHS-PRCC analysis of CystiAgent found that the parameters with the greatest impact on model uncertainty were the roaming range of pigs, the infectious duration of human taeniasis, use of latrines, and the set of “tuning” parameters defining the probabilities of infection in humans and pigs given exposure to T. solium.
Conclusions
CystiAgent is a novel ABM that has the ability to model spatial and behavioral features of T. solium transmission not available in other models. There is a small set of impactful model parameters that contribute uncertainty to the model and may impact the accuracy of model projections. Field and laboratory studies to better understand these key components of transmission may help reduce uncertainty, while current applications of CystiAgent may consider calibration of these parameters to improve model performance. These results will ultimately allow for improved interpretation of model validation results, and usage of the model to compare available control and elimination strategies for T. solium.
Keywords
Taenia solium, cysticercosis, agent-based models, infectious disease modeling, Peru
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Parasites & Vectors.
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept but needs final editing
On 27 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 03 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor Revision
On 20 May, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 11 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 03 May, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 30 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 29 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 28 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 13 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Apr, 2020
Version 1
Posted 28 Jan, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major Revision
On 28 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 22 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 19 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 05 Feb, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 04 Feb, 2020
First submitted
On 27 Jan, 2020
Editor invited
On 27 Jan, 2020
Editor assigned
On 27 Jan, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 Jan, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
Learn more about our company.
A new preprint design is coming!
We have improved readability, clarity, accessibility, and opportunities for engagement.
See the published version of this preprint at Parasites & Vectors.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research
Ian Wright Pray
OHSU-PSU School of Public Health
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6935-5123
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Parasites & Vectors.
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept but needs final editing
On 27 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 03 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 02 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Minor Revision
On 20 May, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 11 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 03 May, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 30 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 29 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 28 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 13 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Apr, 2020
Version 1
Posted 28 Jan, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major Revision
On 28 Feb, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 22 Feb, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 19 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 05 Feb, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 04 Feb, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 04 Feb, 2020
First submitted
On 27 Jan, 2020
Editor invited
On 27 Jan, 2020
Editor assigned
On 27 Jan, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 26 Jan, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Parasites & Vectors.
Background
The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a serious public health problem in rural low-resource areas of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, where the associated conditions of nuerocysticercosis (NCC) and porcine cysticercosis cause substantial health and economic harms. An accurate and validated transmission model for T. solium would serve as an important new tool for control and elimination, as it would allow for comparison of available intervention strategies, and prioritization of the most effective strategies for control and elimination efforts.
Methods
We developed a spatially-explicit agent-based model (ABM) for T. solium (“CystiAgent”) that differs from prior T. solium models by including a spatial framework and behavioral parameters such as pig roaming, open human defecation, and human travel. In this article, we introduce the structure and function of the model, describe the data sources used to parameterize the model, and apply sensitivity analyses (Latin hypercube sampling–partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC)) to evaluate model parameters.
Results
LHS-PRCC analysis of CystiAgent found that the parameters with the greatest impact on model uncertainty were the roaming range of pigs, the infectious duration of human taeniasis, use of latrines, and the set of “tuning” parameters defining the probabilities of infection in humans and pigs given exposure to T. solium.
Conclusions
CystiAgent is a novel ABM that has the ability to model spatial and behavioral features of T. solium transmission not available in other models. There is a small set of impactful model parameters that contribute uncertainty to the model and may impact the accuracy of model projections. Field and laboratory studies to better understand these key components of transmission may help reduce uncertainty, while current applications of CystiAgent may consider calibration of these parameters to improve model performance. These results will ultimately allow for improved interpretation of model validation results, and usage of the model to compare available control and elimination strategies for T. solium.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
Loading...