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Article
Agriculture and land use implications of early climate change mitigation efforts without reliance on net-negative emissions
Tomoko Hasegawa
Ritsumeikan University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Allowing delayed climate mitigation actions and overshoot of temperature targets requires large scale negative carbon emissions that may induce adverse side-effects on land, food and ecosystems in the second half of this century. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without net negative emissions inevitably needs the implementation of early and quick emissions reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near-term. Here we identify the implications of scenarios without a dependence on net-negative carbon emissions on land-use and food systems. We find that early climate actions without the reliance on net-negative carbon emissions have multiple benefits and trade-offs in land-use and food systems, and avoid the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land-use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, a reduced risk of hunger and lower water scarcity. At the same time, however, near-term mitigation pressure in the AFOLU sectors and the required land area for energy crops increases, resulting in additional agricultural intensification.
Keywords
AFOLU, climate mitigation, net zero, bioenergy and CCS, afforestation, carbon budget, model comparison, integrated assessment models.
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This preprint is under consideration at a Nature Research Journal. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Nature journals have partnered with Research Square to offer In Review, a journal-integrated preprint deposition service.
Article
Agriculture and land use implications of early climate change mitigation efforts without reliance on net-negative emissions
Tomoko Hasegawa
Ritsumeikan University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2456-5789
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 29 Dec, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Environmental Policy
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Allowing delayed climate mitigation actions and overshoot of temperature targets requires large scale negative carbon emissions that may induce adverse side-effects on land, food and ecosystems in the second half of this century. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without net negative emissions inevitably needs the implementation of early and quick emissions reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near-term. Here we identify the implications of scenarios without a dependence on net-negative carbon emissions on land-use and food systems. We find that early climate actions without the reliance on net-negative carbon emissions have multiple benefits and trade-offs in land-use and food systems, and avoid the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land-use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, a reduced risk of hunger and lower water scarcity. At the same time, however, near-term mitigation pressure in the AFOLU sectors and the required land area for energy crops increases, resulting in additional agricultural intensification.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.