Multi-Project Model Program Runs With Algorithms to Improve Indian Coal Mining

Mining engineering is the most dangerous peace-time profession in the world. Primary Organization for coal mining in India is Coal India and extensive research has been conducted to improve performance. Development computerized methods emphasize better project scheduling, and converting scheduling and monitoring of a project in common package format for the multi-projects of a company The authors have also developed models for cost benet analysis of improved systems of mining operations on ground realities and database models. The authors have developed for viable mining data-based computer methods in 14 original models, of which few are detailed for lack of space. India has 320 billion tonnes of coal reserve and it is 7 per cent of the reserve of the world. The energy consumption in India is about one-third of the world average and 60 per cent of installed capacity of energy in the country is based on thermal plants.


Introduction
Computer project software and developments have taken place for more than 330 versions. For success of multi-project, because of geological incongruence, every coalmine project should be critically analyzed for improvement. Around 87% of India's proven coal reserves total of 319.02 Billion tonnes estimated in the country as on 1.4.2018. Mine planning and project design is fundamentally dependent on geological attributes of the reserve. Most crucial problem is that mine reserves are widely varying and so project planning is unique for each mine and different. Comparatively industrial projects design can be implemented in any location on the parameters of equipment. Billions of (Rupees) are spent every year on mining and construction of projects spread all over India. Cost and time over runs of highly capita intensive projects can be checked and even 5% saving could mean millions of Rupees. Major producers of coal in India are CIL subsidiaries and coal blocks allotted to private companies. Coal India Ltd is making pro ts from opencast mines mainly, overcoming the losses suffered by underground mines. Projects of costing above 5000 million (1$=71 as in Sept 2019) are approved by the Govt. Remedial actions, wherever warranted are taken. Graphical Abstract shows Process of Approval Indian coal projects.
The researchers have developed his data-based computer methods in 14 original models. So, applying principles of Operations Research (OR), models have been designed, coded and run. The authors in due course have developed the following special model programs, shown in Table No-1, which can help proper planning, scheduling, monitoring and prioritization of coal projects.

New Projects
Since new mining projects are highly capital intensive, techno-commercial evaluation is necessary [1,2,3] for the method to be adopted. So, recent advances in information technology has to be adopted [5,7] for correct decision. The researcher has designed a small model program 'qep' based on Expert System (ES) concept and run it [19] with practical eld and cost data. Project method A1 is for semi-mechanized Bord and Pillar system with tub loading and haulage. Project method A2 is for mechanized Bord and Pillar system with Side Discharge Loader (SDL) and chain conveyors. Project method A3 is for mechanized Longwall with Shearer, Armoured Face Conveyor (AFC), self-advancing hydraulic support etc. The objective is to develop right planning for scheduling and monitoring and it has been found from the output data of ES that cost increased with size of mine projects. Investment decision of projects [4] should be done on:i. Pay out time-i.e. when Break Even Point is reached, applied here.
ii. Average yearly payout-in terms of capital, works, crew, materials etc.
iii. Accounting Return or net pro t on original investment-used in this ES, as main criterion.
iv. Operating Return-indicated in the ES annually.
v. Present worth of Cash ow discounted @10-20%-used in the E.S for projection over 6 years.
vi. Net Pro t-is computed excluding taxes and royalties.
vii. DCF Return-could be computed from the ES.
viii. Sensitivity Analysis-Change in output by change in input-indicated by higher BEP.
ix. Actuarial analysis for estimating service life for depreciation-in CIL for 9 years.
x. Incremental cost analysis for marginal cost etc. -could be computed from the data generated.
Pro tability Index (PI) or Return On Investment (ROI) or Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) rate of return are some [6] of the indicators of pro ts. ROI could be computed from: -ROI = a+ (b-a) {(a r -1.0)/(a r -b r )} = 18% to 28%; Where, a = initial rate of interest, b = higher interest rate, a r or b r = discounted receipts / discounted investment = 1.1 to 1.2. ROE or Return on Equity is given by pro t after Tax/ Net worth. Run of the program 'QEP' with actual data from mines show: -1. In the program sample run, with available mine cost data, Longwall method has shown lower A/C Return 10.75 and so ES has indicated as less suitable.
2. In favourable conditions, and if we standardize and indigenously manufacture LWPS, it could be the most [9] suitable method in future. IRR should be 12% at 85% production.
3. In order to achieve very high OMS and pro tability, Continuous Miner technology with roof bolting could be adopted even in geologically disturbed areas. 4. A/C Return with SDL in B&P method has come 14.93 and so the most suitable method in this study.

Reorganized Projects
In planning reorganized projects from old mines, crossing Break Even Point (BEP) level of production is If BEP could not be achieved without additional production from mechanization, needing additional investment for the additional production, total BEP changes: -.

TOT_BEP = BRK_EVN_PT+ADL_PROD
It is assumed that 22% of the annual depreciation + interest and 300 is number of working days in a year. It can be found that additional investment of 1 million could be neutralized with additional 2 tpd, e.g. as in the PDV_PDV mine. However, this additional investment and ADDL_PROD required would be higher accordingly. Again, the program computed revised total break-even point [15] of the colliery. Once, the techno-economics of coalmine Reorganization Project is nalized, viz. programs runs, scheduling of activities and monitoring for completion become valuable

Coal Multi-projects
System approach is required for planning [ 8,11,13,14] projects, scheduling and controlling. Since, coal mining project activities are differing widely, yet they are grouped in standard packages. All the packages are further divided into sub-packages and totaling is made head-wise, applicable for all types of mining, in conformity of budget heads. The model program 'mps' for computing the entries of a single project and model program 'mpt' for different projects of a company in a particular month, with budget vs. actual and %schedule vs. %progress for monthly monitoring. It has included import java.io.*; basic input/ output system header le, java.lang.*; javax.swing.*; java.awt.*; import java.util.* also. Combining clearly different activities in to common packages and running mps for individual projects [17,19,25] and then feeding them in to mpt and yielding company-wise output for any month.

Cost Bene t For Scheduling
Improvement of methods and systems, could plan better projects [13,23,25] to schedule and monitor.
Cost Bene t Analysis before planning, specially new and emerging methods can make successful projects.  5.2 Improved Track and Support -Most traditional underground mines have track haulage as the main coal production transport system. So, in planning and scheduling better track system for coal transportation is essential [14,26]. Model program 'stl' determines the cost bene t and accordingly scheduling and prioritization of mines for implementation. It could be observed from the program run that projected cost saving by adopting steel sleeper was quite considerable and the savings ranged from 1.2 to 4.9 million per year.
The 'stl' model program writes the data according to format statement, like column-colliery, name, TYPtype, NTS-no. of timber sleeper, DCOST-dog nail cost, NSS-no. of steel sleepers= 80% NTS, as life could be 20 years against 4 years of timber found; YRPR-yearly produc tion, and CP-coal price. Then, assignment statement, TC-timber-track cost, SC-steel track cost, type '*'-metre gauge, TTC-total timbertrack cost, DSAV-derailment saving, and CB-cost bene ts etc. are coded in the program. It has been established by the computer program run, that although the price of timber sleeper is 1/5th of the steel sleep er, in the long run the designed steel sleeper can yield annual saving with less derailment.
Figure No-2 shows program owchart for coal projects package-wise and month-wise.

Strata Control Cost
Bene t Among the various methods of stowing for lling voids after extraction of coal, sand stowing is the most prevalent, as com pared to costlier crushed stone, pneumatic or high speed belt stowing, etc. So, sand separation from hydraulic transportation by dredging of dam reservoir has been examined [31,36]. On approximate capital cost for pumps and pipelines, used in the computer program run, the coded 'dre' show great bene t. Actual gain in saving in hydel generation would be more, as the reservoir is replenished with water after evacuation of sand.
Most of the recent capacity slurry pipelines utilize Centrifugal type pumps, capable of transporting large size lumps up to 4" size. These pipelines show pronounced savings, compared to conventional systems of trans port. Discounting all savings in ood control, power generation and truck transport, the cost per m 3 of sand worked out by computer simulation to 10-17/ m 3 at peak capacity of pipelines.

Quarry Planning Cost
Bene t & Scheduling -Most opencast mines or quarries practice transportation of coal and overburden by circuitous haul roads, very costly to maintain. So, steep transport method has examined directly to surface bunker [14,21] has been studied. When the model program 'troq' was compiled and run, with layout of crusher, bucket elevator and bunker with screen for steam and slack coal. The program run output, shows accrued saving ranged from Rs.40.10/t, in RJ-RJM mine to Rs.1175.62/t in MU-SHP mine. The fact stands out that there is considerable justi cation in reorganization to electricity driven vertical trans port in opencast mines, especially small mines. There will be greater utilization of shovels, especially in small quarries. Surplus dumpers and trucks could be shifted to new or other mines resulting in more production. There should be more OB removal, as haul roads would be solely used for the purpose. Figure-3 shows the owchart of computations of cost bene t by steep transport in quarries. . Pre-Feasibility Report can be made using the model 'eqp' to select appropriate equipment set. Figure-4 shows the owchart of program for selection of underground mining equipment.

Scheduling & Monitoring Models
When cost bene t analysis is encouraging by designed program run with realistic data for a new or reorganized method, then planning for scheduling is logical next step. Coal mine project construction is highly capital-intensive; funding requirement is very often changing for geological and techno-economic reasons.

Opencast Coal Mine Project Monitoring -Computerized AON PERT diagram, created on a computer by
the set of input data of a large project. The activity name is followed by duration in brackets, e.g. coal production sec-A. Since, the project has been rescheduled, there was very little oat, found in the chart. The critical activities, is shown by bold lines, on the bar chart, as com puted by the compiler. New techniques were applied by the researcher for numerous advantages of reviewing computerized networks, after the rst input of data. Review could be done any date, provided all data of revision or reschedule of activities. Activities could be split, deleted, inserted or even relocated with change of dependencies, with change of start dates and resources, the compiler automatically computes, all remaining parameters of the network. 6.4 Capital Budget Monitoring-Because of geo-mining problems, rescheduling has to be resorted to very often and adjusting fund scheduling. Resource allocation [13,28] as per schedule is essential, like men, money, machinery and materials of which money is the most important, as it can arrange other resources. The spreadsheet columns and rows are required to be updated every month, a model 'macro' program has been designed by the researcher for automatic cursor movement, for input of data, saving and printing.
Moreover, in the spreadsheet, cell formulae have been incorporated for automatic computing of the assigned variable, totals etc. Computing monthly nancial scheduling, showing the columns that need not be changed every month of all projects of a company. In multi-project nancial allocation, as per priority of projects and criticality of activities some re-allocation of budget between different heads and projects has to be made with joint meetings and exigencies of the situation.
6.5 Coal Projects Responsibility Scheduling -Main Purpose is to ensure achievement of targeted schedules, within budgeted cost and manpower, by solving day-to-day problems of responsibility scheduling [22,36]. Thus, a model program 'mbo' is created, for speci c purpose, here for charting the key tasks for different management positions according to conditions in the coalmine project. Decision Chart and the query based computer program is able to produce a revised Decision Chart, of any month for any project. On detail studies, outcome of this process to standardize coal project 24 key tasks against 13 different management positions in coal industry.
Job Effectiveness Description JED of a mine Project Manager, developed by the researcher, shows Program Run of mbo.java for a Particular Project for the Review Month. The executives in green colored boxes should actively cooperate for the key task area shown, those in yellow color to help whenever required and those in red color need not bother for this key task and concentrate on their routine duties.
If the coalmine project o cials are not responsive to the changing situations, and stick to routine duties, the project would suffer and so there is need for responsibility scheduling. Objective Setting by Action Plan, Responsibility scheduling with Decision Chart by Con dence Factor CF and and sample run mbo.bat displays for a particular project for certain month. Figure In model program 'dew' inputs of STAT_VOL (Static volume of water underground), SEPG_WAT (Make of water), DEW_RAT (Dewatering rate), FLB_RAT (into the mine through surface ssures), are made for computing DEW_TIME in days (for dewatering). Sample run of the model program, with incremen tal dewatering and ow-back rates of water was done. Although, 59 survivors were rescued on 3 rd day, but ALT_NO 10 in the program run came close to reality, when after about a month, 6 dead bodies were recovered. This is a unique world-record making disaster management scheduling work, in which the researcher had played a key role. The researcher's contribution was acclaimed by international journals like Reader's Digest, June '91 issue in English, Oct '91 issue in Hindi, January'92 issue in Dutch and in many other language editions.

Conclusions
The researcher has analyzed the results of hundreds of World Bank aided projects, indicating that success or failure often depend upon factors outside the control of Project Manager.  Figure 1 displays the owchart of program for cost bene t by shotcrete shaft lining.  shows program owchart for coal projects package-wise and month-wise. Figure 3 shows the owchart of computations of cost bene t by steep transport in quarries.
Page 18/21 Figure 4 shows the owchart of program for selection of underground mining equipment.
Page 20/21  shows model run of the program for different key tasks.

Supplementary Files
This is a list of supplementary les associated with this preprint. Click to download. GRPHICALABSTRACT.gif Algorithmsofmodelprograms.docx