3.1 Patient characteristics and outcomes
A total of 108 patients with maintenance HD were enrolled according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The characteristics of the patient population have been reported previously (15). In brief, there were 62 males and 46 females aged 56±12 , undergoing HD therapy for 60 (29,122) months at baseline. Other general characteristics probably correlated with prognosis and plasma complement factors (C3c, C1q, CFH, CFB, C4, MAC, C5a, C3a and MBL) are shown in table 1, stratified by death or alive.
Table 1
Baseline characteristics of the HD cohort stratified by outcome.
|
All patients
(N=108)
|
Died
(N=17)
|
Alivea
(N=91)
|
Pb
|
|
Clinical characteristics
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age(years)
|
56±12
|
64±12
|
54(44,64)
|
0.010*
|
|
Gender(male/female)
|
62(57.4%) / 46(42.6%)
|
9(52.9%) / 8(47.1%)
|
53(58.2%) / 38(41.8%)
|
0.685
|
|
HD duration(months)
|
60(29,122)
|
93±76
|
58(27,113)
|
0.299
|
|
Follow-up time(months)
|
52(39,52)
|
37(16,41)
|
52(52,52)
|
<0.001*
|
|
mCCI
|
3(2,4)
|
4.43±2.21
|
3(2,4)
|
0.060
|
|
SBP(mm Hg)
|
152±22
|
142±26
|
154±20
|
0.037*
|
|
DBP(mm Hg)
|
77±15
|
72±18
|
79±14
|
0.080
|
|
MAP(mm Hg)
|
101±18
|
95±19
|
104±13
|
0.097
|
|
PP(mm Hg)
|
74±21
|
70±18
|
75±21
|
0.367
|
|
Hemoglobin(g/L)
|
112.69±10.49
|
109.72±9.63
|
113.00(106.67,117.6)
|
0.236
|
|
WBC(x10^9/L)
|
6.16(5.18,7.74)
|
6.49±2.18
|
6.12(5.22,7.58)
|
0.565
|
|
PLT(x10^9/L)
|
164.38±53.48
|
131.77±50.35
|
169.62±52.36
|
0.013*
|
|
Glucose(mmol/L)
|
6.12(5.22,7.92)
|
8.21±3.51
|
6.03(5.20,7.41)
|
0.176
|
|
Albumin(g/L)
|
40.75(38.25,42.45)
|
37.76±3.86
|
40.68±3.52
|
0.003*
|
|
Hs-CRP(mg/L)
|
1.89(0.57,4.82)
|
4.42(2.28,10.40)
|
1.72(0.47,4.38)
|
0.045*
|
|
SF(ug/L)
|
296.99±165.25
|
299.37±140.31
|
296.59±169.85
|
0.956
|
|
eGFR(ml/min×1.73m2)
|
15.26(12.61,18.31)
|
17.81±6.92
|
15.16(12.57,17.80)
|
0.788
|
|
spKt/V
|
1.53±0.29
|
1.43±0.35
|
1.54±0.28
|
0.168
|
|
Phosphate(mmol/L)
|
1.77±0.52
|
1.73±0.48
|
1.66(1.40,2.14)
|
0.745
|
|
Calcium(mmol/L)
|
2.33±0.28
|
2.26±0.23
|
2.35±0.28
|
0.258
|
|
PTH(pg/ml)
|
328.89(169.80,487.40)
|
294.45±166.70
|
348.46(172.24,525.92)
|
0.216
|
Complement factors
|
|
|
|
|
C3c(g/L)
|
0.92±0.17
|
0.98±0.21
|
0.91±0.16
|
0.154
|
|
C1q(mg/L)
|
201.84±41.43
|
209.34±39.79
|
200.44±41.79
|
0.419
|
|
CFH(ug/mL)
|
361.77±57.63
|
388.64±75.32
|
361.21±57.06
|
0.169
|
|
CFB(mg/L)
|
346.15(299.93,388.20)
|
355.5(288.55,430.70)
|
346.10(302.40,387.20)
|
0.358
|
|
C4(g/L)
|
0.31(0.25,0.38)
|
0.33(0.28,0.49)
|
0.31(0.24,0.38)
|
0.205
|
|
MAC (ng/mL)
|
482.26(307.59,783.75)
|
401.80(325.65,981.94)
|
484.32(294.83,758.05)
|
0.440
|
|
C5a(ng/mL)
|
31.03±10.80
|
28.13±9.70
|
31.57±10.97
|
0.230
|
|
C3a(ng/mL)
|
238.72(190.12,318.95)
|
297.30±98.01
|
229.03(182.10,294.49)
|
0.339
|
|
MBL(ng/mL)
|
4346.38(1415.73,8979.95)
|
4648.01±4040.82
|
4807.28(1466.52,9043.82)
|
0.471
|
Primary cause of ESRD
|
0.415
|
|
|
Primary glomerulopathy
|
37(34.3%)
|
5(29.4%)
|
32(35.2%)
|
|
|
Diabetes
|
14(13.0%)
|
2(11.8%)
|
12(13.2%)
|
|
|
Hypertension
|
14(13.0%)
|
4(23.5%)
|
10(11.0%)
|
|
|
ADTKD
|
10(9.3%)
|
0
|
10(11.0%)
|
|
|
Tubulointerstitial nephropathy
|
17(15.7%)
|
2(11.8%)
|
15(16.5%)
|
|
|
Other or unknown
|
16(14.8%)
|
4(23.5%)
|
12(13.2%)
|
|
Comorbidity
|
|
|
CCDs
|
39(36.1%)
|
9(52.9%)
|
30(33.0%)
|
0.116
|
|
Hypertension
|
77(71.3%)
|
8(47.1%)
|
69(75.8%)
|
0.034*
|
|
Diabetes
|
12(11.1%)
|
2(11.8%)
|
10(11.0%)
|
1.000
|
Data are shown as mean ± SD or median (interquartile range) for continuous variables and proportions for categorical variables. P < 0.05 are marked with *.
aThe alive refers to patients who weren’t dead until the end of their censoring time (N=91), including those undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (N=75) and receiving renal transplantation or transferring to other hospitals (N=16) during the follow-up.
HD duration, hemodialysis duration; mCCI, modified Charlson comorbidity index; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; MAP, mean arterial blood pressure; PP, pulse pressure; WBC, white blood cell; PLT, blood platelet; Hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; SF, serum ferritin; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; PTH, parathyroid hormone; CFH, complement factor H; CFB, complement factor B; MAC, membrane attack complex, complement C5b-9; MBL, mannose-binding lectin.
|
During 52 months follow-up period, 17 patients died. 16 survived patients received renal transplantation or transferred to other dialysis centers, and the other 75 maintained HD in our center (Figure 1). The primary cause of death of the 17 patients was cardiovascular (n=7, 41.2%) and cerebrovascular (n=2, 11.8%) events (CCEs). Infection (n=5, 29.4%) took up the secondary place. Moreover, other six cases attacked by cardiovascular (n=4) or cerebrovascular (n=2) events, survived and maintained HD until the end of the study. In total, 23 patients achieved the composite endpoint (Figure 2).
3.2 Clinical parameters and plasma complement factors associated with the prognosis by univariate Cox regression analysis
To identify the correlation between clinical parameters and the prognosis of HD patients, we collected multiple possible indexes reported previously (8) to conduct univariate Cox regression for three endpoints, including death, CCEs and the composite endpoint (Table 2). Seven factors have been identified to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality, one with the incidence of CCEs and four with the composite endpoint. Remarkably, a high level of plasma C4 was significantly associated with all of the three endpoints (HR, 5.039; 95%CI, 1.337-18.998; P=0.017 for all-cause mortality, HR, 4.497; 95%CI, 1.117-18.104; P=0.034 for CCEs, HR, 3.927; 95%CI, 1.120-13.769; P=0.033 for the composite endpoint). Aging was associated both with an increased all-cause mortality (HR, 1.059; 95%CI, 1.012-1.108; P=0.013) and incidence of composite endpoint (HR, 1.054; 95%CI, 1.015-1.094; P=0.006), and mCCI score showed a similar trend (HR, 1.295; 95%CI, 1.034-1.622; P=0.024 for all-cause mortality, HR, 1.245; 95%CI, 1.025-1.512; P=0.027 for the composite endpoint). An elevated blood platelet count was associated both with reduced risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.987; 95%CI, 0.978-0.997; P=0.009) and incidence of the composite endpoint (HR, 0.991; 95%CI, 0.983-0.999; P=0.032).
3.3 Clinical parameters and plasma complement factors associated with the prognosis by multivariate Cox regression analysis
For further exploration, we then performed multivariate Cox regression analyses to control confounding variables (Table 3). Model I was constructed to adjust for general clinical parameters, including age, gender, HD duration and mCCI. Based on model I, model II was additionally adjusted for other variables analyzed as P<0.1 (including MAP, Albumin, Hs-CRP and spKt/V) in univariate Cox regression.
According to the models above, increased plasma C4 showed a significant association with the incidence of all three adverse endpoints, while blood platelet count showed the opposite effect. Specifically, a higher baseline plasma C4 associated with worse prognosis, including an increased risk of death (HR, 38.710; 95%CI, 5.23-286.68; P<0.001 in model I and HR, 53.008; 95%CI, 3.62-779.65; P=0.004 in model II), incidence of CCEs (HR, 4.726; 95%CI, 1.19-18.78; P=0.027 in model I) or achieving the composite endpoint (HR, 14.332; 95%CI, 2.93-70.21; P=0.001 in model I and HR, 14.747; 95%CI, 3.09-70.47; P=0.001 in model II). The patients with higher blood platelet count seemed to have reduced risk of death (HR, 0.980; 95%CI, 0.97-0.99; P=0.001 in model I and HR, 0.969; 95%CI, 0.95-0.99; P=0.001 in model II) or achieving the composite endpoint (HR, 0.989; 95%CI, 0.98-0.99; P=0.017 in model I and HR, 0.990; 95%CI, 0.98-0.99; P=0.033 in model II).
Table 3
Multivariate Cox regression analyses for 3 endpoints.
|
All-cause mortality
|
CCEs
|
Composite endpoint
|
Non-adjusted
|
Model I
|
Model II
|
Non-adjusted
|
Model I
|
Non-adjusted
|
Model I
|
Model II
|
|
|
P<0.001
|
P<0.001
|
|
P=0.014
|
|
P<0.001
|
P<0.001
|
C4(g/L)
|
5.04
(1.34-19.00)
P=0.017
|
38.710
(5.23-286.68)
P<0.001
|
53.008
(3.62-779.65)
P=0.004
|
4.497
(1.12-18.10)
P=0.034
|
4.726
(1.19-18.78)
P=0.027
|
3.927
(1.120-13.769)
P=0.033
|
14.332
(2.93-70.21)
P=0.001
|
14.747
(3.09-70.47)
P=0.001
|
CFH(ug/mL)
|
1.007
(0.99-1.02)
P=0.081
|
—
—
P=0.305
|
1.016
(1.00-1.03)
P=0.045
|
—
|
—
|
1.005
(0.99-1.01)
P=0.114
|
—
—
P=0.310
|
—
—
P=0.171
|
PLT(x10^9/L)
|
0.987
(0.98-0.99)
P=0.009
|
0.980
(0.97-0.99)
P=0.001
|
0.969
(0.95-0.99)
P=0.001
|
—
|
—
|
0.991
(0.98-0.99)
P=0.032
|
0.989
(0.98-0.99)
P=0.017
|
0.990
(0.98-0.99)
P=0.033
|
Model I: adjusted for age, gender, HD duration and mCCI.
Model II: model I + other variables analyzed as P<0.1 in univariate Cox regression, including MAP, Albumin, Hs-CRP and spKt/V.
CCEs, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events; HD duration, hemodialysis duration; mCCI, modified Charlson comorbidity index; MAP, mean arterial blood pressure; PLT, blood platelet; Hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; CFH, complement factor H.
|
3.4 Outcome-based cut-point optimization of complement factor 4 by X-tile analysis
Since the baseline plasma C4 level may predict the prognosis of the cohort, X-tile analyses were performed (Figure 3). We tried to determine the optimal cut-off values for plasma C4 to identify patients with high risk for adverse outcomes. X-tile plots of the HD cohort displayed the optimal cut-off values. Histogram analyses of plasma C4 level showed a continuous distribution and were separated by the values in two colors. These divisions were applied to chart Kaplan-Meier plots and calculate the corresponding Log Rank (Mantel-Cox) chi-square and P values. In total, X-tile analyses revealed that once plasma C4 was higher than 0.47 (c2=11.386, P=0.001) or 0.44 (c2=5.616, P=0.018) g/L respectively, the risk of death (Figure 3a) or suffering either death or being attacked by CCEs (Figure 3c) increased significantly. The optimal cut-off value for CCEs was 0.39 g/L (Figure 3b), but with no statistical significance (c2=3.615, P=0.057).
3.5 Dose-response analysis of plasma C4 level with prognosis by restricted cubic spline model
Restricted cubic spline model with 4 knots (Figure 4) was employed to simulate the relationship between plasma C4 level and the risk for three endpoints. T model was adjusted with age, gender, HD duration, mCCI, MAP, ALB, Hs-CRP and spKt/V. The relationships between plasma C4 level and HR for death (P for nonlinear trend = 0.8325, for linear trend =0.0087, Figure 4a), the incidence of CCEs (P for nonlinear trend = 0.3636, for linear trend =0.0358, Figure 4b) and the composite endpoint (P for nonlinear trend = 0.2931, for linear trend =0.0191, Figure 4c) were all observed as a linear tendency.
3.6 Correlations between complement factors and the traditional risk factors for CCDs at baseline
To further investigate possible mechanisms for the relationship between complement C4 and the prognosis, we assessed the correlations between complement factors and the traditional risk factors for CCDs at baseline. Apart from age, gender, blood pressure and diabetes mellitus or not, we detected the baseline blood lipids, containing triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) among 78 of the 108 HD patients. No significant difference in baseline characteristics between the 78 patients and the whole (Table S2).
Spearman’s correlation analyses (Figure 5) indicated the strong positive correlations between C4, CFB, CFH and C3c, especially between CFB and C4 (r=0.82, P<0.001), CFH (r=0.86, P<0.001) and C3c (r=0.82, P<0.001). Moreover, C4 exhibited a prominent correlation with blood lipids, primarily with TG (r=0.62, P<0.001) and HDL (r=-0.38, P<0.001). Conversely, in our HD cohort, no significant correlations were revealed between C4 and age (r=-0.05, P=0.941), SBP (r=-0.08, P=0.069), DBP (r=-0.01, P=0.956) and diabetes mellitus (r=0.11, P=0.668).