3.1 Identification of Prognostic hypoxia-related genes in Pancreatic Cancer
The expression matrix of 200 genes related to hypoxia comes from TCGA RNA-Seq data. With Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and univariate Cox analysis, we identified 24 genes that are related to hypoxia and are significantly related to the patient's prognosis (p < 0.05). Among them, 9 genes have low risk with HR < 1, and 15 genes have high risk with HR > 1 (Fig. 1A).
3.2 Construction and Validation of a hypoxia-related genes Prognostic Signature
To determine the prognosis of PC patients, 24 hypoxia-related genes were used for multiple Cox regression analysis in the TCGA training data set. Eventually, 8 hypoxia-related genes (GCNT2, JMJD6, CA12, STBD1, SIAH2, CAV1, CHST2, and DTNA) were deemed as the powerful prognostic markers and selected to create a prediction model (Fig. 1B). The risk score of each PC sample was calculated as follows: risk score = (0.49 × GCNT2) + (-1.00 × JMJD6) + (0.28 × CA12) + (-0.68 × STBD1) + (1.04 × SIH2) + (0.37 × CAV1) + (-0.68 × CHST2) + (-0.45 × DTNA). Since hypoxia usually leads to a more aggressive cancer phenotype, the prognostic value of the model was investigated. Taking the medium risk score as the cut-off value, the samples were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, and construct a K-M survival curve based on risk grouping. As shown in Figs. 1C-D, a high hypoxia score in the TCGA cohort was associated with a poorer OS, which was further verified by the GSE62452 cohort (p < 0.05). Figures 2A-B shows the distribution of prognostic model, the survival results of different groups of PC patients, and the expression profiles of hypoxia-related genes in the TCGA and GSE62452 databases. Then we calculated the AUC value to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for predicting prognosis of PC patients, the AUC at 1-, 3-, and 5- years was 0.761, 0.788, and 0.896, respectively (Fig. 2C), indicating that the risk model was considerably reliable in predicting the OS of the PC. And that was further validated by GSE62452 datasets (Fig. 2D).
3.3 Evaluation of 8 hypoxia-related gene Signatures as an Independent Prognostic Factor
Then, to investigate whether the prognostic significance of the signature was independent of other clinicopathological factors, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed. The hazard ratio (HR) value and 95% CI of univariate Cox regression analysis were 1.518 and 1.375–1.677 (P < 0.001), and that of multivariate Cox regression analysis was 1.482 and 1.337–1.643 (P < 0.001) (Table 2), indicted that 8 hypoxia-related genes signature is an independent prognostic factors for PC patients.
Table 2
Univariate Cox regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis for clinical factors
Variables
|
univariate Cox
|
multivariate Cox
|
HR
|
95% IC of HR
|
P-value
|
HR
|
95% IC of HR
|
P-value
|
Sex
|
0.893
|
0.591–1.348
|
0.590
|
|
|
|
Age
|
1.027
|
1.006–1.048
|
0.013
|
1.015
|
0.994–1.036
|
0.162
|
Grade
|
1.383
|
1.035–1.847
|
0.028
|
1.188
|
0.862–1.637
|
0.292
|
Stage
|
1.363
|
0.937–1.985
|
0.106
|
|
|
|
riskScore
|
1.518
|
1.375–1.677
|
0.000
|
1.482
|
1.337–1.643
|
0.000
|
The relationship of risk score with clinicopathologic characteristics was also studied, and it found that high-risk score was associated with lymph node metastasis and low immune scores (Fig. 3A). Furthermore, there were significant differences associated with risk score in terms of immune score (P < 0.05), pathologic_grade (P < 0.05), pathologic_T (P < 0.01) and pathologic_N (P < 0.05) (Supplementary Fig. 1). The risk model we developed is applicable to different ages, genders, degrees, T and N stages (Supplementary Fig. 2).
3.4 Establishment and Verification of Nomogram
A prognostic nomogram was successfully developed to predict 1/3/5 years survival rate. Age, gender, grade, stage and 8 hypoxia-related gene signatures were included in the final OS prediction model (Fig. 3B). The calibration curve of the nomogram model showed that the predicted overall survival rate of 1/3/5 years was well in line with the actual observation results, indicating that the nomogram model has obvious reliability in judging the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (Figs. 3C-E).
3.5 Characteristics of Immune Cell Infiltration and Tumor Mutation Burden (TMB)
Then we explored the correlation between prognostic model and immune cell infiltration. According to pearson correlation analysis, the infiltration of naive B cells (cor = -0.26, p = 0.0051), Eosinophils (cor = 0.25, p = 0.0075), CD8 T cells (cor = − 0.24, p = 0.01), M0 macrophages (cor = 0.26, p = 0.0053), M1 macrophages (cor = 0.19, p = 0.045), and activated memory CD4 T cells (cor = -0.19, p = 0.04) was significantly correlated with the signature score (Fig. 4A). Then, using the maftools package to analyze the differences in the distribution of somatic mutations between the high-risk and low-risk TCGA cohorts. Figures 4B-C shows that the TMB of the high-risk group is higher than that of the low-risk group (89.74% vs 65.62%). TMB has been shown to be a biomarker predicting the clinical benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment. Therefore, high-risk patients are more likely to receive PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy.
3.6 Identification of Potential Hypoxia Subtypes of Pancreatic Cancer
Based on the expression of 24 genes related to hypoxia, consensus clustering methods were used to cluster the 177 PAAD samples to determine the hypoxia status. The CDF curve has the flattest middle segment, and the interference between subgroups can be minimized when K = 2. So we chose K = 2 for consensus cluster analysis to identify two subgroups, cluster1 (n = 80) and cluster2 (n = 97) (Fig. 5A), and PCA further indicated that there are significant differences between the two subgroups (Fig. 5B). Besides, we analyzed the prognostic relationship between the two groups and found that the survival rate of cluster2 was higher than that of cluster1 (p < 0.001) (Fig. 5C). Therefore, compared with cluster 2, we define cluster 1 as the "hypoxic subgroup". As shown in Fig. 5D, almost all patients with cluster1 subtypes are classified as high-risk groups, which tended to have poorer survival.
Then, according to the distribution of immune cell infiltration, we found that cluster2 was dominated by naive B cells, memory B cells, plasma cells, CD8 T cells, activated memory CD4 T cells and neutrophils, but only M0 macrophages was upregulated in cluster1 (Fig. 6A). The immune and stromal score were calculated according to the ESTIMATE algorithm, which showed that cluster2 has a higher immune score and stromal score compared with cluster1 (p < 0.01, Fig. 6B). In summary, these results indicate that cluster 2 had more immune cell infiltration. GSVA showed that cluster 1 was rich in cancer-related pathways: Notch signaling pathway, P53 signaling pathway, Glycolysis gluconeogenesis, etc (Fig. 6C).
3.7 Differentially-Expressed Analysis and Enrichment Analysis of MicroRNAs
The miRNA mature strand expression RNA-Seq was analyzed to determine the differentially expressed miRNAs associated with hypoxia. A total of 39 differentially-expressed miRNAs were screened with FDR < 0.05 and |logFC|≥1.5. Compared with cluster2, there were 3 up-regulated and 36 down-regulated miRNAs in cluster1 (Fig. 7A). In addition, DIANA TOOLS-mirPath v.3 (http://snf-515788.vm.okeanos.grnet.gr/) was used to analyze the KEGG pathway enrichment in these miRNAs. Enrichment analysis results showed that differentially-expressed miRNA is significantly enriched in carcinogenic and hypoxia activation pathways: Proteoglycans in cancer, Focal adhesion, Hippo signaling pathway, HIF-1 signaling pathway, TGF-beta signaling pathway, etc.(Fig. 7B).
3.8 Establishment of a Competitive Endogenous RNA (ceRNA) Regulation Network associated with Hypoxia
We analyzed the transcriptomic data of PC to identify hypoxia-related and differentially-expressed genes, including lncRNA and mRNA. To identify whether any lncRNAs might regulate differentially expressed miRNAs, we first used the miRcode database to predict the targeting relationships between differentially-expressed miRNAs and lncRNAs, found that the miRNAs, hsa-miR-129-5p, hsa-miR-490-3p and hsa-miR-216b-5p had negative-related target lncRNAs. Then, the target mRNAs of these three miRNAs were predicted from the three miRNA databases, and a hypoxia-related ceRNA network composed of 5 lncRNAs, 3 miRNAs and 5 mRNAs was developed and visualized by Cytoscape (Fig. 8A). As shown in Figs. 8B-F, among the key genes involved in ceRNA network, LSAMP-AS1, hsa-miR-129-5p, S100A2, HMGA2, and HAVCR1 were significantly correlated with survival (p < 0.05). The expression of LSAMP-AS1 was positively correlated with the expression of S100A2 (Fig. 8G). In summary, LSAMP-AS1/hsa-miR-129-5p/S100A2 may be the main ceRNA network that regulates the hypoxic environment and prognosis of pancreatic cancer.
3.9 Validation of crucial lncRNAs and mRNAs in ceRNA Regulation Network
qRT-PCR revealed the relative expression of LSAMP-AS1 and S100A2 in PC cells and tissues. As shown in Figs. 9A-D, all these genes were significantly upregulated in PC cells and tissue compared with normal groups. Further, we also validated the protein expression levels of S100A2 using IHC from the HPA database (https://www.proteinatlas.org/). The protein expression of S100A2 was higher in tumor tissues than in normal tissues (Fig. 10A-B). These results suggested that the LSAMP-AS1/hsa-miR-129-5p/S100A2 axis may be involved in the tumorigenesis of PC.