The positive predictive value (PPV) found in the study was 100% and 93.1% using fasting plasma glucose (FPG) cut off ≥ 7.0 mmol/L and FPG cut off ≥ 5.1 mmol/L respectively (Table III). These PPV is quite higher than the findings by Saeedi et al in Orebo university hospital, Sweden who found PPV of 78% at FPG cut-off value ≥ 5.2 mmol/L and PPV of 46% at FPG cut off value of 5.0 mmol/L. The negative predictive value (NPV) found in this study was 95.8% at fasting plasma glucose cut off threshold of ≥ 5.1 mmol/l and 85% at FPG cut off threshold of 5.3 mmol/l. This is lower than the NPV of 99% at FPG threshold of 5.0 mmol/l found by Saeedi et al in Sweden. The differences in the findings may be attributed to the larger population size of 4918 of eligible participants who were recruited in Orebo county which is larger than the subjects used in our study. In addition, the 75 g OGTT was done in this study between gestational ages of 24 weeks to 28 weeks while the Swedish study had the screening at GA 28 weeks to 32 weeks.
In another study by Khan et al23 in a study at Karachi, between subjects with and without GDM. Nineteen subjects were diagnosed GDM using Carpenter and Coustan criteria while 13 met “NDDG” criteria using 100g OGTT. Fasting plasma glucose cut off of 5.1 mol/L was the most efficient investigation and gave PPV = 70%, NPP = 78.78%, positive likelihood ratio = 3.56, negative likelihood ratio = 0.41, efficiency = 75.47%. These findings are quite lower than the results reported by this study which found the PPV of 93.1% and NPV of 95.8% at FPG cut off 5.1 mmol/L. Khan et al also reported that at random plasma glucose cut-off 11.1 mmol/L, the PPV was 65.21% NPP, 1.25 positive likelihood ratio, 0.82 negative likelihood ratio and efficiency of 55.8%. The result of this study found that fasting plasma glucose is a better investigation for the screening of GDM than random plasma glucose or 50g GCT. The sample size analyzed was 53 subjects which is quite lower than the number of participants in our study. The samples collected in this study were run in duplicate and the average of the two readings taken as the final result. This will help in reducing error from outlier figures.
Al-Kindy et al in Kenya study found PPV of 52% which was lower than the PPV of 66.7% found in this study at same RPG threshold cut off 7.8 mmol/l. However, a higher NPV of 87% was found in Kenya study which was higher than NPV of 72.3% in this study at same RPG threshold of 7.8 mmol/l. The Kenyan study found Positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio of 3.71 and 0.52 respectively at RPG cut off ≥ 7.8 mmol/l while this study found a higher PLR of 4.76 and NLR of 0.86 at same threshold. Although Al-kindy et al used 50 g GCT for diagnosis with threshold of cut off ≥ 7.8 mmol while this study used RPG as screening test for the recruited subjects.
Reyes-Munoz in the Mexican study found PPV of 99.2% and NPV of 99.2% at FPG threshold of ≥ 5.1 mmol/L which is quite higher than the NPV found this study at same FPG threshold. The positive likelihood ratio was 884 while the NLR was 0.12. This is quite higher than the PLR of 31 and NLR of 0.1 found in this study. Although, the population from which the subjects were drawn were not the same, this study focused mainly on pregnant subjects with identifiable risk factors for GDM, who were considered to be at risk of development of gestational diabetes mellitus.
Mohan et al in an Indian study for screening of GDM using OGTT done in nonfasting (random) and fasting states, found PPV and NPV at threshold of 7.8 mmol/l to be 52.2% and 93.9% respectively. These findings are lower than the results reported by this study which found PPV and NPV of 66.7% and 72.3% respectively. The accuracy reported by Mohan et al was 94.7% which is higher than the efficiency of 72% found in this study. Although both studies are similar, Mohan et al recruited 1400 study subjects from both urban and rural antenatal centres in Indian, which was quite large population.
Khan et al23 found the mean age of the study subjects to be 29.90 ± 4.92 years which is quite lower than the mean age of 34.81 ± 4.04 yrs of the participants in this study.
The mean BMI in this study was 31.46 ± 7.29 kg/m2 which is higher than BMI of 24.3 ± 3.6 kg/m2 found by Reyes-Munoz in the Mexican population and that of
Makuve etal12 in a cross-sectional study in Tanzania population found that only 29.9% of pregnant women are offered GDM screening of which random blood glucose comprised 56.8% while fasting plasma glucose was 32.8% while OGTT was 3.4%. The use of simple low cost tests such as RPG and FPG can increase screening in this population.
Pillay et al12 in a meta-analysis found that available evidence on screening or no screening remains controversial and one vs two step approach was not significantly associated with improved outcomes. Khan R et al13 in Pakistan population found among the socio-demographic factors that parity of GDM subjects were significantly higher risk of GDM (P < 0.05), but educational status or socioeconomic status was not associated with GDM.
In our study, maternal age 35–40 yrs was observed to be high among the participants (Table I). Li et al14 in Chinese population found that the risk of GDM increases linearly with maternal age in the overall population at 7.9%. Abu-Heija et al15 found that maternal age and BMI had the greatest influence on positive glucose tolerance test.
Recommendation:
FPG can be a valuable screening modality for gestational diabetes mellitus and should be considered for use in universal screening.