3.1 Patients selection
This retrospective analysis study included 945 patients with lung cancer initially, who were hospitalized in the respiratory medicine department of the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of medicine in the past 5 years from February 2015 to December 2019. Based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 395 patients without complete information, 20 patients without first-line chemotherapy, 277 patients without follow-up information, and 108 patients without sufficient laboratory test data. Finally, 195 patients were included in this retrospective study. In addition, R software was used to randomly group the patients to a 7:3 ratio. A total of 136 patients were assigned to the training group to establish the nomogram prediction model and 59 patients were assigned to the validation cohort. The total patients were assigned to the testing cohort to assess the model (Fig. 1).
3.2 Association between AGR, SIRI and the OS
The characteristic variables of the training cohort are summarized in Table 1. The median value of age was regarded as the cut-off value. The cutoff values of CRP, CEA, and CA19-9, are defined by the maximum of the normal range setting by the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine. The training cohort consisted of 96 (70.6%) men and 40 (29.4%) women. In addition, Table 1 shows that low AGR is significantly associated with other prognostic outcomes, including no history of lung cancer operation (P = 0.005), body mass index (BMI) of ≥ 18.5 (P = 0.008), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) of ≥ 5 (P = 0.018), and an increased C-reactive protein (CRP) level (P < 0.001). It was significantly different when comparing high SIRI with sex (P = 0.002), pathology (P = 0.008), and CRP (P < 0.001).
Subsequently, Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses included variables that were significant in Table 1 or meaningful related clinical work. Univariate Cox analysis indicated that a history of lung cancer operation, liver metastasis, history of smoking, BMI, CA19-9, squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC), CRP, AGR, and SIRI were significantly associated with OS (P < 0.05; Fig. 2). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that liver metastasis, SCC, AGR, and SIRI were independent prognostic factors in advanced lung cancer (P < 0.05; Fig. 3).
To explore the prognostic value of AGR and SIRI in patients with advanced lung cancer. KM analysis and log-rank test demonstrated that the relationship between low AGR or high SIRI and poorer OS was statistically significant in the training set (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.435 [1.55–4.88], P = 0.007; Figure. 4A). The lower AGR group had shorter 5-year OS rate (0% vs 42.3%) and median OS time (15.0 months vs 30.3 months) in comparison with the elevated AGR level group. When patients with advanced lung cancer were in hyperinflammatory states, it revealed that high SIRI level had significant 5-year OS rate (0% vs 54.9%) and median OS time (16.7 months vs NA; HR = 3.135(1.77–5.24); P < 0.001; Figure. 4D). Similar results were confirmed in the validation and testing sets (P < 0.05; Fig. 4B-C and E-F).
3.3 The analysis of the prognostic value of TNI
The potential value of the clinical factors in the training set were further explored. As known, SCC and liver metastasis are important biomarkers for lung cancer screening[11, 12]. However, not all patients with high SCC or liver metastasis have a poor survival time. SCC or liver metastasis alone are insufficient as a prognostic biomarker for patients with advanced lung cancer. Therefore, more prognostic biomarkers for lung cancer need to be explored. To predict survival precisely and quantitatively, a nomogram model based on relevant parameters was established. The total points were calculated by determining the score of the parameters by establishing the nomogram shown in Fig. 5A. Liver metastasis had the largest interval while the SCC risk score indicated the minimum range in this model. The total point was defined as the TNI, which was calculated for each patient based on the model. We could get a formula: TNI = 10*liver metastasisyes + 5.37* SSChigh + 5.69*AGRlow + 5.55*SIRIhigh. TNI scores were calculated using the R software for each patient with advanced lung cancer. Then, patients were divided into four groups based on their TNI quartile values. KM analysis and log-rank test indicated that the high-risk TNI group significantly predicted poorer OS compared to the other groups, as shown in Fig. 5B (P < 0.05).
To verify whether the nomogram model is applicable to both the validation and test sets. The TNI score for each patient was disposed in the same manner as the training set. The survival curves were still statistically significant, as plotted in Supplementary Fig. 1A-B (P < 0.05). In order to further validate the diagnostic ability of the nomogram model, the concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver characteristic operator (ROC) curves were drafted by R studio according to the SCC combined liver metastasis model, AGR combined SRI model, and TNI model, respectively. The results showed that the C-index was 0.658(0.621–0.694), 0.703(0.666–0.739), and 0.756(0.723–0.788), respectively. The 1-year AUC areas were 68.93, 67.34, and 75.62, respectively (Supplementary Fig. 1C; Supplementary Table 1). This demonstrated that TNI had a higher diagnostic ability than the other two models. It showed elevated consistency for comparing predicted and actual survival proportions for the TNI model in the training, validation, and testing sets, which were revealed by calibration curves at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years (Supplementary Fig. 2A-I).
Based on the TNI scores, the patients’ clinical characteristics in the total population are shown in Supplementary Table 2. We then performed Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses, as shown in Supplementary Table 3. BMI, CRP, and TNI were independent prognostic factors in patients with advanced lung cancer (P < 0.05). A nomogram prognostic model was established to predict survival time rates according to these three independent risk factors in the total population (Fig. 6). Using the prognostic model, we can intuitively observe the survival rate of patients with advanced lung cancer.
The regimen of lung cancer has entered an era of precision treatment, so subgroup analysis was conducted in the lung cancer subtypes, patients were divided into EGFR-mutation and non-EGFR-mutation groups for exploring the potential significance of TNI. The optime cut-off was obtained using the R package. As shown in Supplementary Fig. 3A-3B. Both subgroups showed longer survival time in patients with low TNI. Additionally, when patients were separated into chemotherapy and targeted and immunotherapy groups according to the First-line chemotherapy regimen, the results demonstrated that patients with high TNI had worse OS (Supplementary Fig. 3C-3D). So, we could conclude that TNI may be a potential biomarker for patients screening and treatment regimens options influencing.