Population and demographic characteristics, anthropometry, and admission outcomes
Overall number of under–five children enrolled into the study were 6925, the males constitute 52% (3570) with a boys-to-girls ratio of 1.06. Their median age was 16 months (IQR 10–24 months). The mean (±SD) age of the children was 17.58 months (±9.75) and 88% were ages ≤24 month. Transfers from OTP were 65% (4943) while 35% were referrals from the communities. Marasmus constituted 86.0% of direct admission, followed by Kwashiorkor (11.8%) and Marasmus - Kwashiorkor (2.1%). The median MUAC at admission was 10.17 cm (IQR 9.50 – 11.00), mode was 11.0 cm and 66.5% have MUAC <11.0 cm. The mean weight at admission was 5.67kg (±1.88 SD), median weight was 5.6kg (IQR 4.7 – 6.5) and mode 6 kg. 82.4% has weight ≤7kg and 19.4% has weight ≤4kg. Most admission (42%) occur within the ‘lean season’ (May to August) with corresponding higher mortality than other months Table 1 and Figure 2.
Table 1 Bivariable Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model for Predictors of Death from complicated SAM in Northwest Nigeria
|
SAM
|
Variable
|
All SAM (6925) n%
|
Alive (6925) n%
|
Death (285) n%
|
Crude Hazard Rate (95% CI)
|
Sex (n=6,925)
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
3,570 (52%)
|
3435 (96%)
|
135 (4%)
|
1
|
Female
|
3,352 (48%)
|
3202 (96%)
|
150 (4%)
|
0.883 (0.691 – 1.130)
|
Age (N=6925)
|
|
|
|
|
6 – 24
|
6.101 (88%)
|
5850 (96%)
|
251 (4%)
|
1
|
25 – 59
|
824 (12%)
|
790 (96%)
|
31 (4%)
|
0.985 (0.683 - 1.421)
|
Month of Admission (N=6925)
|
|
|
|
.
|
January - April
|
1,410 (20%)
|
1375 (98%)
|
35 (2%)
|
1
|
May - August
|
2,735 (42%)
|
2600 (95%)
|
135 (5%)
|
0.542(0.363-0.809)*
|
September - December
|
2,772 (38%)
|
2657 (96%)
|
115 (4%)
|
1.228(0.942-1.599)*
|
Weight at Admission (N=6924)
|
|
|
|
|
<6
|
4,067 (59%)
|
3904 (96%)
|
163 (4%)
|
1
|
6+
|
2,857 (41%)
|
2735 (96%)
|
122 (4%)
|
1.136 (0.887-1.457)
|
Weight at Exit (N=6621)
|
|
|
|
|
<6
|
3343 (50%)
|
3203 (96%)
|
140 (4%)
|
1
|
6+
|
3278 (50%)
|
3170 (97%)
|
108 (3%)
|
0.850 (0.652-1.108)
|
MUAC at Admission (N=6925)
|
|
|
|
|
<11.5
|
6102 (88%)
|
5837 (96%)
|
265 (4%)
|
1
|
11.5+
|
823 (12%)
|
803 (97%)
|
20 (3%)
|
1.731 (1.072-2.796)*
|
MUAC at Exit (N=6925)
|
|
|
|
|
<11.5
|
5376 (78%)
|
5114 (95%)
|
262 (5%)
|
1
|
11.5+
|
1549 (22%)
|
1526 (98%)
|
23 (2%)
|
3.057 (1.974-4.734)*
|
Morbidity (N=6846)
|
|
|
|
|
Marasmus
|
1639 (24%)
|
1517 (93%)
|
122 (7%)
|
0.417 (0.325-0.536)*
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Marasmic-Kwashiorkor
|
41 (1%)
|
39 (95%)
|
2 (5%)
|
2.305 (.318-16.703)
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Kwashiorkor
|
223 (3%)
|
208 (93%)
|
15 (7%)
|
0.642(0.359 -.1.148)
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Transfer from OTP
|
4943 (72%)
|
4801 (97%)
|
142 (3%)
|
2.377(1.855-3.047)*
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Residence (N=6925)
|
|
|
|
|
Baure+
|
806 (12%)
|
774 (96%)
|
32 (4%)
|
1
|
Dutsi*
|
875 (13%)
|
841 (96%)
|
34 (4%)
|
1.543 (1.417-1.680)*
|
Daura+*
|
2394 (35%)
|
2319 (97%)
|
75 (3%)
|
1.504 (1.361-1.663)*
|
Zango*
|
2850 (41%)
|
2706 (95%)
|
144 (5%)
|
1.247 (1.147-1.356)
|
Weight gain (g/kg/day) (N=5866)
|
|
|
|
|
<8
|
2570 (44%)
|
2425 (94%)
|
175 (6%)
|
1
|
8+
|
3296 (56%)
|
3252 (99%)
|
44 (1%)
|
0.210 (0.149-0.295)*
|
Owing to missing data, values may not add up. *P value <0.05
Z test
To test the hypothesis that there was no difference between the means of the MUAC (M =10.19 cm, SD = 1.30) and weight at admission (M = 5.66, SD = 1.88), and MUAC (M=10.526 cm, SD = 1.30) and weight at exit (M=5.95, SD 1.60), a dependent sample t-test was performed. The correlations between the means of the MUACs and weights before and after intervention were estimated at r = .55, p <0.05 and r=54, p<0.05 respectively, suggesting that the dependent sample t-test is appropriate in this case. The null hypothesis that the CMAM intervention did not cause any change in the mean of the MAUC & weight before and after was rejected, t (21.652) = 6279, p<0.05and t (13.718) = 6571, p<0.05. Thus, the MUAC and weight at exit was statistically significantly higher than the at admission. Cohen’s d was estimated at 0.27 (MUAC) and 0.169 (Weight) which is a small effective based on Cohen’s (1992) guideline
Treatment outcome
The records indicated that 5944 (86%) of SAM children 6-59 months were stabilised and transfer to OTP, which was above the minimum recovery rate of 75% recommended in SPHERE standard, while 285 (4%) died during treatment which was lower than the SPHERE standard recommendation of 10% mortality. Moreover, 176 (67%) mortality occurred in the first 7 days of admission. The mean LOS was 6.64 days (±4.65), mode 4 and median length of stay for children who were discharged was 6.00 days (IQR 4.00 to 8.00 days). Majority of patient (69%) spent at least 7 days on admission. The average weight gain during the inpatient treatment phase was 6.8 g/kg/day for non-oedematous malnutrition Table 2.
Table 2 Comparison of treatment outcome with SPHERE standard indictors
Discharge outcome (N=6925)
|
|
Result
|
SPHERE Standards
|
Transfer to OTP (6-59month)
|
5944
|
86%
|
>75%
|
Death
|
285
|
4%
|
<10%
|
Defaulter
|
269
|
4%
|
<15%
|
Non responder
|
8
|
-
|
-
|
Other
|
211
|
-
|
-
|
Average Length of stayed (N=6925)
|
|
6.64 days
|
<30 days
|
Weight gain (g/kg/day) (N=5866)
|
|
6.8 g/kg/day
|
≥8 g/kg/day
|
Survival analysis
There were 6925 children with SAM considered for survival analysis with a median nutritional recovery time of the entire cohort to be 6 days (95% CI: 5.944–6.056). The greatest number and proportion of terminal events (death) occurred within the first 7 days 196. The cumulative probability of recovery at the end of one week was 95%; and recovery at the end of two week was 92%; that of surviving at the end of four weeks was 91% Table 3 and Figure 1. Kaplan Meier failure curves showed that children with Kwashiorkor had increased risk of dying independent of other factors Figure 3.
Table 3 Life table analysis of severely acutely malnourished children treated at CMAM stabilization centres Northwest Nigeria from September 2010 to November 2016.
Interval Start Time
|
Number Entering Interval
|
Number Withdrawing during Interval
|
Number Exposed to Risk
|
Number of Terminal Events
|
Proportion Terminating
|
Proportion Surviving
|
Cumulative Proportion Surviving at End of Interval
|
0-7
|
5738
|
3328
|
4074.000
|
196
|
.05
|
.95
|
.95
|
7-14
|
2214
|
1621
|
1403.500
|
45
|
.03
|
.97
|
.92
|
14-21
|
548
|
288
|
404.000
|
7
|
.02
|
.98
|
.91
|
21-28
|
253
|
51
|
227.500
|
0
|
.00
|
1.00
|
.91
|
28-35
|
202
|
34
|
185.000
|
3
|
.02
|
.98
|
.89
|
35-42
|
165
|
40
|
145.000
|
0
|
.00
|
1.00
|
.89
|
42-49
|
125
|
7
|
121.500
|
0
|
.00
|
1.00
|
.89
|
49-56
|
118
|
4
|
116.000
|
0
|
.00
|
1.00
|
.89
|
56-63
|
114
|
8
|
110.000
|
0
|
.00
|
1.00
|
.89
|
63-70
|
106
|
16
|
98.000
|
1
|
.01
|
.99
|
.88
|
70-77
|
89
|
87
|
45.500
|
2
|
.04
|
.96
|
.84
|
Cox regression analysis
Bivariate Cox regression analysis was run for the following independent variables, Sex, Age, month of admission, MUAC and weight at admission and discharge, type of morbidity, weight gain and length of stay in the hospital. Subsequently, the bivariable analysis finding showed that the ‘lean season’ – May to August (CHR=1.228, 95% CI=0.942-1.599), MUAC at admission (CHR=1.731, 95% CI =1.072-2.796), MAUC at Exit (CHR =3.057, 95% CI=3.057 (1.974-4.734), Type of acute malnutrition – Marasmus (CHR=0.417, 95% CI= 0.325-0.536), Transfer from OTP (CHR=2.377, 95% CI 1.855-3.047) and weight gain (CHR=0.210, 95% CI=0.149-0.295) were found to be significant predictors to time-to-recovery with p value < 0.05, hence considered eligible for the multivariable cox regression analysis. Accordingly, after adjusting for different variables month of admission, MUAC at admission and exit, type of morbidity- marasmus, transfers from OTP, weight gain were found to be independent predictors of recovery time in severely malnourished children admitted to the CMAM stabilization centres Table 4.
Table 4 Multivariable cox regression of predictor of mortality in CMAM stabilization centre in Katsina State
Variable
|
Adjusted Hazard Ratio
|
P-value
|
Month of Admission
|
|
|
January – April
|
1
|
0.009
|
May – August
|
0.491(0.288-0.838)
|
0.009
|
September - December
|
1.118(0.805-1.551)
|
0.506
|
MUAC (cm) at admission
|
|
|
<11.5
|
1
|
|
11.5+
|
0.990(0.547-1.790)
|
0.974
|
MUAC (cm) at Exit
|
|
|
<11.5
|
1
|
|
11.5+
|
0.521(0.306-0.890)
|
0.017
|
Weight gain(g/kg/day)
|
|
|
<8
|
1
|
|
8+
|
0.239(0.169-0.340)
|
0.000
|
Marasmus
|
|
|
No
|
1
|
|
Yes
|
2.144(1.079-4.260)
|
0.029
|
OTP
|
|
|
No
|
1
|
|
Yes
|
1.105(0.558-2.190)
|
0.775
|
Time-to-death patterns of the SAM children across selected variables. Hence, there were statistically significant difference in the survival rates among children admitted during the ‘lean season’, their MAUC at exit, type of morbidity- marasmus and weight gain (p< 0.05).