DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1436547/v2
The COVID-19 Omicron wave in Romania, Bulgaria and Germany is considered within a
new approach for modeling Epidemics and a short comparison is made of similar application
to few strongly affected countries in the beginning of 2022: the USA, the UK and France.
The present work represents exclusively a mathematical modeling of the Pandemic and does not
deal with any other aspect of health, social or economic character as well with throwing away any
possibility for unexpected developments.
Methods:
The main novelty of the approach used is the dynamical tracking of successive generations of infected people
instead of treating in time the evolution of several large compartments within which the total
population is partitioned (susceptible, infected, recovered,...).
Because of the much strongest transmission of Omicron, its wave starts to dominate the Pandemic after
some moment in time, and then the simplest version of the new model can be employed.
Results:
The daily observed new infection cases are described over a large time scale in a reasonable way after normalization. Deviations may be associated with country-specific factors. The position of the calculated Pandemic peaks in time in Romania and Bulgaria indicates a transition from the second to to the third generation of infected people. The situation in Germany is more complex. For comparison, in the USA, UK and France the transition is from the third to the fourth generation. The parameters derived by reproducing the data in the three countries considered are consistent with those derived earlier for the USA, the UK and France (i.e. infection and recovery rates).
Conclusions:
A very large part of the population will be gone through a contact with the virus in a relatively small period of time (3-4 months). This part is comparable to the total number of infections which occurred
for two years, since the beginning of the Pandemic by end of 2019. Therefore, one may hope that some temporary acquired immunity will be reached. Adding the effects of vaccination, one may hope with moderate optimism that it will be possible to control/stop the COVID-19 Pandemic soon. However, lifting restrictions should be done carefully and country specifically, and of course at the right time, as illustrated by the examples of the UK and Germany and to some extent of France.
The present work represents exclusively a mathematical modeling of the Pandemic and does not deal with any other aspect of health, social or economic character as well with throwing away any possibility for unexpected developments. Yet we hope that the present results will be of some help.