1.1. Brief description of the problem and objective of the research
According to the National Seismological Service (2017), on September 7th, 2017, there was an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.2 Mw at 23:49:18 hours (Local time, Mexico City), whose epicenter was located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, in front of the coast of Chiapas, 133 km southeast of the municipality of Pijijiapan. The coordinates for the hypocenter were 14.761 N and − 94.103 W, and the depth was 45.9 kilometers. The focal mechanism of the earthquake evidenced a failure of the normal type. Two days after, 482 aftershocks were recorded and, 15 days later, 4326 aftershocks, whose distribution covered all the Tehuantepec Gulf. On the other hand, based on a report made by the Engineering Institute at UNAM (2017), in the Niltepec station (NILT), there was a Maximum Soil Acceleration registered, PGA, of the 500 cm/s2 order, while, in Mexico City, the registered PGA in University City was 8.9 cm/s2 (Fig. 1).
This earthquake affected different infrastructure of several states of the Mexican Republic, among them, Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Mexico State and Oaxaca (Archundia et al. 2018; Pozos-Estrada et al. 2019; Tapia y García 2019; Aguilar et al. 2020; Guzman et al. 2020). Particularly, Juchitán de Zaragoza was the municipality of Oaxaca that suffered the biggest amount of damages because of this destructive event, given that thousands of houses, the church, city hall, several educational institutions and hundreds of commercial buildings suffered severe damages or a total or partial collapse. It was observed that the entrepreneurial sector was gravely damaged, which represented a socio-economic problem, due to the fact that, at the moment, businesses of all types and sizes are essential for the functioning of every community and the economic strength of a country, given that they generate employment, pay taxes, provide goods and services, etc. that’s why, when they can’t restart their activities after the earthquake, the individual and communal living conditions worsen, which leads to a considerable delay in the recovery of affected zones (Chang y Lotze 2014; FEMA 2015; Ortiz et al. 2020, Ortiz et al. 2021a). In that sense, the municipal market of Juchitán represents an interesting case study.
The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of businesses of the municipal market of Juchitán de Zaragoza, Oaxaca, caused by the property damage during the Chiapas earthquake, which occurred on September 7th, 2017. Particularly, the effects and the rehabilitation of the property are detailed, and then, for a representative sample, we estimated direct and indirect losses incurred by interruption of activities. We identified the strategies that were implemented to maintain and increase the habitual level of profit, we indicate the incentives they received for entrepreneurial reactivation and examined the recovery of productivity.
1.2 Impact on businesses due to some historical earthquakes
Destructive earthquakes, on top of the deaths and injuries they cause, have always brought serious economic and social problems, among them, negative impacts on economic units, such as increased economic losses for structural and non-structural damage on buildings and their content. These direct effects have also provoked businesses to have to interrupt their operations and therefore, stop generating profit. However, there have also been a cease in production even if the buildings didn’t turn out damaged. We have even observed some companies that suffered a decrease in income without having ever closed due to the earthquake, because they stopped having clients after the big event (Arce et al. 2014; Ortiz y Reinoso 2019; Ortiz et al. 2021b).
“All economic units mut take into account all the risks to which they are exposed to reasonably maintain themselves in function. It is crucial that they incorporate practical solutions to mitigation into their commercial and planning decisions” (FEMA 2015). It has been demonstrated that micro and small businesses are more vulnerable to natural risks than big ones (Lo et al. 2021), however, it has been evidenced that those that have previous experience in disasters and problems with money flux, have less probability to disappear after a new catastrophic event (Marshall et al. 2015).
Research has been performed on the commercial consequences of the most catastrophic earthquakes in California, including the 1983 Coalinga (Durkin 1984; French et al. 1984), 1989 Loma Prieta (Kroll et al. 1991) and 1994 Northridge (Gordon et al. 1995; Boarnet 1998). According to the poll performed by Tierney (1997), it was recorded that due to this event, the four main reasons for companies temporarily closing were: 1) loss of power (58.7%), 2) inability of the employees to reach the place of business (56.4%), 3) damages to the owner’s house (44.4%) and 4) loss of clients (40%). Also, there is a study base don a poll in which the direct and interruption of business losses were estimated after the Kocaeli, Turkey 1999 earthquake (Durukal y Erdik 2008) and in another study, the economic impact on Shifang was estimated, which was caused by the interruption in roads as a result of the Wenchuan earthquake, which occurred in 2008, demonstrating that a failure of the transport network leads directly to impacts in the interruption of business in the road transport sector, which directly leads to impacts in the interruption of business, which unchains a domino effect in other sectors due to economic interdependence (Shi et al. 2015).
Furthermore, based on the data recollection of 541 organizations affected by the earthquakes in Canterbury, it was registered that the most disruptive impact of these was due to the problems the clients had to face, and also, it was evidenced that those economic units that rented a building recovered a little bit better than the ones that owned the place (Brown et al. 2015). On the other hand, based on the poll that was applied to 226 retailers of the Central Market at Portoviejo, 22% couldn’t offer their products for between 1 and 15 days due to the earthquake that occurred on april 16th 2016, in Ecuador, while 46% was between 15 and 30 days, and 32% was for more than 30 days (Valdiviezo 2019). Additionally, it was observed that, because of the September 2017 earthquakes in Mexico, out of 2,041 million businesses, 39.3% suspended activities at some point, out of which 43.2% was for one day, 23.4% for two days, 10.8% for three days and at least 22.6% for more than three days (INEGI 2017). There was also an analysis of damages to houses and commercial buildings by the Puebla earthquake in september 19th 2017, noting that, in Mexico City, the buildings of between 1 and 10 stories, and that were built between the 1960s and 1980s, were the most affected (Buendía y Reinoso 2019) and in another investigation, reasons for closure were identified in businesses for this event, registering the cuts in power, post seismic inspection of the structure, complications in access ways, the collapse of neighboring businesses with human victims, among others, caused a potential pause in business (Ortiz y Reinoso 2020).
Recently, an analytical framework was developed to model the recovery times of companies after seismic events considering multiple downtimes such as building recovery, general community disruption, and mitigation tactics employed by companies using information from 22 economic units affected by the 2011 Mw 6.1 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand (Cremen et al. 2020). In addition, a probabilistic model was carried out to quantify and predict the recovery of businesses through a Bayesian linear regression, taking into account the interaction between households and businesses, which was applied in a community in Lumberton, North Carolina, which was deeply impacted by Hurricane Matthew in 2016 (Aghababaei, 2020).