Popillia japonica has been a fairly neglected phytophagous species until it came to the limelight following the invasion of North America and the Azores in the last century, and Italy more recently. A rich scientific literature has since accumulated on outbreaks and their spread, as well as on the phenology of the species in different ecological settings. And a consensus of the human-mediated introductions from its native range in Japan to the North America and from here, to the Azores and mainland Europe has also occurred. Nevertheless, a reconstruction of the historical invasion routes of this species using a phylogeographic approach had been missing until now.
Genetic analyses of Japanese samples of Popillia japonica identified 2 different lineages in the native area, the first in Kyushu and Tsushima and the second across Shikoku, Honshu and Hokkaido. This separation between south and north-central Japan was jointly supported by microsatellites and by mitochondrial data, with the identification of two different genetic clusters in the two areas. Haplotype group IX, characterizing the southern islands, is separated by 13 substitutions from Group VIII (Shikoku) and 33 substitutions from the core of the network (Honshu and Hokkaido). This differentiation may have been promoted by the presence of the Seto Inland Sea, which could have acted as a natural barrier to gene flow separating Kyushu from Shikoku and Honshu over historical times. A parallel differentiation was, on the other hand, not observed between Shikoku and Honshu, with samples clustering in the same group based on microsatellite data and extensive sharing of haplotypes belonging to Group V across the two islands. Whereas the entire Honshu was recovered as a single assemblage based on microsatellite data, mitochondrial haplotypes recovered additional structure in the area. The highest haplotypic richness was observed in central Honshu, suggesting that this may be the origin of this species, with other Japanese islands having been subsequently colonized through a process of range expansion that has occurred at some point in the past. Haplotypic data from samples collected in the northern part of Japan (Hokkaido and Akita Prefecture in Honshu) were in turn characterized by Group IV and Group VII haplotypes, further supporting and old expansion process from the central region of Honshu to Hokkaido. Taken together, these observations suggest an old process of differentiation of P. japonica in its native area, with an origin in Honshu and secondary differentiation in northern and southern islands.
In the light of the biological features and the possibility for dispersal of P. japonica, its presence in North America is undoubtedly associated with human activities and trades that took place in the last century. Microsatellite analysis identified the origin of the North American outbreak from the east and central-west Japan populations. Based on mitochondrial data, the presumptive geographic origin of the invading population could be narrowed down further to central-eastern Honshu. Of the 13 haplotypes found in North America, only 3 were identified in Japan, namely Hap_34, Hap_38, and Hap_48, with the first two being the most frequent overall in North America and having spread and differentiated to produce a series of ancillary haplotypes. Other haplotypes occur sporadically in different sampling sites, with frequencies under 2%. It is therefore possible to hypothesize that Hap_34 and Hap_38 characterized the original introduction, with other satellite haplotypes being generated by casual mutation during the colonization process. These two most frequent North American haplotypes were identified only in a limited geographical region of Japan, in the center of Honshu island between the Ibaraki, Tochigi, and Gunma Prefectures. As such, this geographical region can be considered as the most likely origin of the invasive specimens associated with the first North American outbreak of P. japonica.
Being present in Japan in the same region (Nagano Prefecture), Hap_48 may be part of the original introduction, having followed the same route hypothesized for Hap_34 and Hap_38. Nevertheless, the observation that it is found at low frequency in North America, has not differentiated locally to produce satellite haplotypes and its geographical distribution is restricted to Maine (USA), gives credence to the alternative possibility that it may be the outcome of an independent outbreak that occurred more recently in a limited geographical area in the US.
Microsatellite analysis of the Azorean and Italian samples allowed only a weak definition of the presumptive area where European outbreaks originated. Adopting a 4-cluster model, it was possible to suggest that Azorean Popillia may have originated from southeastern USA and the Italian population from northeastern USA. Independent confirmation of the former hypothesis was obtained by analyzing mitochondrial data. Of the two haplotypes found in the Azorean Japanese beetles, Hap_38 is common in the US, while Hap_59 is observed in Colorado, New Jersey, and Canada's British Columbia. This latter differs from the more common Hap_38 by only 2 substitutions, with the intermediate haplotype Hap_62 identified in samples from North Carolina (USA). A possible origin of P. Japonica outbreak in the Azores could therefore be tracked to the US east coast. In fact, following from the idea of a continuum spread during the North America colonization, the first invaders characterized by Hap34 and Hap_38 could have spread in the south where Hap_62 and the subsequent Hap_59 were generated. It is therefore possible that some insects were accidentally introduced to the Azores more than 50 years ago from the coastal southeast of the US. This model would also explain the low haplotypic variability observed in the Azores as a consequence of a double founder effect.
The Italian outbreak is characterized by the same haplotypes of the Azorean population, nevertheless their haplotypic frequencies are totally different. Furthermore, the Italian microsatellite pattern seems to be more related to the northeast region of North America rather than the southeast. As such, and even allowing some shift in genetic frequencies associated with low population number during the invasion, it is unlikely that the Italian outbreak originated from the Azores. Of the three locations where Hap_59 was identified in North America, and in line with the indication of microsatellite analysis, New Jersey appears the more likely source, as Colorado and British Columbia are recent detections (2018 and 2017 respectively) and the pest is not considered established locally (CFIA 2020; EPPO 2018).
Circumstantial evidences suggest a possible correlation between planes and P. japonica, in particular the position of the initial Italian outbreak in an area between Milano Malpensa International Airport and Cameri military airport. Moreover, Hap_59 and Hap_38 haplotypes are present in sympatry only in New Jersey, where the Newark International Airport occurs, historically the largest airport in the US and currently part of the largest airport system word-wide. Altogether these observations allow us to hypothesize a possible origin of the Italian specimens from the New Jersey area mediated through accidental transport by plane.
The Swiss outbreak is monomorphic for Hap_59, which is the dominant haplotype in Italy. This, together with the geographical continuity between the two sites, strongly suggests that the spread of Italian P. japonica in the neighboring Ticino area of Switzerland was the origin of the Swiss outbreak.
In order to add the information of distances between sampling areas, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographical reconstruction using both sampling geographical coordinates and COX I and CytB mitochondrial data. Microsatellite data were not included in this analysis due to the long and intensive computation required (an average of 20 days for 1 million generations). In the native range the previously identified groups were monophyletic with the exception of Group V whose paraphyly can be due to a spotted geographical distribution (Fig. 5b). The outbreaks discovered in the western region of North America were originated only by specimens belonging to Group II, as a result of introductions from the east to west. While the eastern Canadian populations only belong to Group III and arose by establishment of populations from southern locations. Even if it is possible a different migration patterns occurred between the two north American populations of P. japonica, this evidence could also be also explained by the existence of two other human-mediated spreading pathways of Japanese beetle through USA and Canada, but still unidentified.
The genetic data reported here, including rejection of HW equilibrium in the majority of microsatellites loci and negative values of Tajima’D and Fu’S estimators that indicate an excess of rare alleles in mitochondrial haplotypes, suggest, in genetic terms, a situation of non-equilibrium. This is in line with multiple evidence, including recent phytosanitary reports (EPPO 2021), suggesting that Japanese beetle is in a demographic expansion phase, leading to new outbreaks and spread to neighbouring areas. However other factors, besides demographic expansion, could be at play to determine allelic disequilibrium, such as the strong founder effect that can take place in outbreaks and the population bottleneck caused by human activities aimed at reducing the impact of this pest. Altogether, this suggests some caution in the interpretation of genetic dissimilarities based on frequency data, as these are subject to change quickly and randomly during such processes. The shared presence of specific haplotypes that display a restricted distribution is, on the other hand a more reliable signature of shared ancestry, as it is less affected by genetic disequilibrium.