Inundation Risk Mapping of Aegean and East Mediterranean Historic Areas

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1507321/v1

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Inundation Risk Mapping of Aegean and East Mediterranean Historic Areas

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1507321/v1

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Historic areas, including world heritage, archeological sites, castles, fortresses, towers, bridges, necropolises, ruins that are the shared legacy of humanity, are in danger of being inundated like settlements, transportation systems, agricultural areas, animal habitats due to sea-level rise because of global climate change and increased carbon emissions. These locations are of great significance as they are the hot spots where a connection can be established from the past to the present regarding the entire human history. Throughout history, settlements have been established around wetlands and shorelines. For this reason, the foremost of the dangers threatening historic areas is the risk of being inundated due to sea-level rise. It was thought that creating an inundation risk map would be beneficial for planning and conservation studies due to reasons such as the long duration of archaeological studies, lack of qualified workforce and budget constraints. For this purpose, considering global and local sea-level rise predictions, inundation risk maps were created for 5 different scenarios having risk classes varying from very high to very low. 464 historic areas located on the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts of Turkey, Greece and Aegean islands were evaluated. It has been revealed that significant historic areas such as Knidos and Delos will be inundated even in the low amount of sea-level rise scenarios. According to the inundation risk map, 34 of the historical areas are at very high, 21 are at high, 25 are at medium, 26 are at low, and 41 are at very low risk of being inundated

Sea level rise

inundation risk

world heritage

Turkey

Greece

Historic areas, including world heritage and archaeological sites, fortresses, temples, ruins, are places where humans can relate to the past, understand humanity's evolution and development, and find evidence of many geological events. These historic areas may contain disaster or climatic data for a geological study, while they can provide information about lifestyle, customs, and habits for anthropological or archaeological research. For such reasons, historic areas hold significant information for the scientific society. Historic areas are also crucial cultural tourism centres visited by millions of people every year, and they serve as essential locations for people to connect with the past while increasing their awareness of history, humanity, and science. Throughout history, as it is today, humanity has tended to live and establish settlements in areas close to mostly water resources like rivers, lakes, seas, and oceans (Fang et al. 2018, 2021; Fang and Jawitz 2019). This preference can be explained by reasons such as the productivity of agricultural lands, fulfilling the water needs, and establishing trade ports, especially after the foundation of the permanent settlements. However, along with genuine advantages, these areas have faced natural threats such as landslides, erosion, flooding, and inundation due to global geological processes throughout history. In addition to this, the effects of global warming and climate change have begun to be seen more frequently and at dangerous levels due to the increasing melting rate of the glaciers and ice caps worldwide, which lead to more natural hazards. Inundation risk can be classified as one of the most significant risks that have ever faced arising from the effects of increasing carbon emissions. (Mcleod et al. 2010; Nicholls and Cazenave 2010; Hinkel et al. 2018). Historic areas close to the sea are under the immediate peril of inundation due to sea-level rise like cities, agricultural areas and transport infrastructures located alongside the coastline (Timmerman et al. 2021).

Although the sea-level rise is considered a prolonged process, its effects can be highly devastating over time. Along with being inundated risk in the long term, it also poses risks such as groundwater salinization, coastal erosion and change in the local ecosystem (Cori 1999; Nicholls and Cazenave 2010; Cronin 2012). Mediterranean coasts are under direct threat of sea-level rise related risks, which will be affecting every aspect of life through the Mediterranean countries (Snoussi et al. 2008; Carbognin et al. 2010; Black et al. 2011). Studies related to the sea-level rise on both global and Mediterranean have mainly focused on modelling steric components, which describes the effect of water density variations (Tsimplis et al. 2008; Marcos and Tsimplis 2008; Jordà and Gomis 2013). In the short term, the expected sea-level rise in the Mediterranean is expected to exceed 25 cm by 2050, which will have more effect on Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea (Haigh et al. 2014; Galassi and Spada 2014; Vacchi et al. 2021). In the long-term studies which carried out by using datasets provided by NASA, it is predicted that the sea-level rise could go up to 500 cm and may affect over 600 coastal cities and more than a billion people around the globe including historic areas, agricultural and residential areas, and engineering structures (Parris et al. 2012; Sweet et al. 2017; Oppenheimer et al. 2019).

While historic areas face such a threat, especially archaeological excavation and conversation and regulation studies may take decades due to the sensitivity of these studies, and there are also problems such as lack of budget and trained workforce. These fundamental issues bring out the necessity of identifying and categorizing the areas at risk of being inundated, primarily due to sea-level rise, which are on the UNESCO World Heritage lists and other critical historic areas not included in these lists but having great significance for history. In this way, it may be possible to prioritize high-risk areas to plan future workflow and use more efficiently available facilities in terms of budget, workforce, and time. In order to carry out a definitive study following this approach, the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of Turkey and Greece, along with Aegean islands chosen as one of the wealthiest geographies of the world in terms of historic areas. Turkey and Greece host historic areas of paramount significance for world history in the Eastern Mediterranean and share the Aegean Sea. According to UNESCO records, 19 out of 1154 World Heritage sites are in Turkey and 18 in Greece. In addition, 84 of 1723 tentative sites are in Turkey and 14 in Greece. Turkey and Greece together host 3.3% of the world heritage sites and 5.7% of the tentative list sites. In the meantime, some historic areas are already inundated, revealing the study's significance, like Limantepe in Izmir, Turkey, and the Sunken City of Ancient Epidaurus in Palaia Epidavros, Greece. There are many world-renowned historic areas in the study area which are on the UNESCO World Heritage List danger of being inundated due to sea-level rise, such as the Archaeological Site of Troy (Turkey), Butrint (Greece), Ephesus (Turkey), Medieval City of Rhodes (Greece), Old Town of Corfu (Greece), Pythagoreion and Heraion of Samos (Greece), and Xanthos-Letoon (Turkey).

The purpose of this study is to create inundation risk maps of historic areas in the west and south coastline of Turkey and Greece along with Aegean islands because of the sea-level rise as a result of global warming and climate change. For this, up-to-date satellite images provided by Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 1 Arc-Second Global with 30 meters resolution are used to create digital elevation maps of the region covering the western and southern coast of Turkey and Greece. To identify historical areas, although the number and list of historic areas in the two countries could not be reached through official sources not included in the UNESCO lists, they were scraped from open sources like Google Maps. After the data scraping process, the historical areas' names, locations, coordinates, and category information were compiled. 464 historical areas were evaluated within the risk of being submerged due to sea-level rise and classified according to the risk level. The 464 historical sites are classified under 5 risk classes, from very low to very high, along with no risk areas.

Aegean civilizations date back to 5000 BC until the Bronze Age civilizations spread over Western Anatolia, Aegean Islands, and Peloponnese. This region is the geography of the oldest farming communities in the world (Geraga et al. 2010; Shin et al. 2021; Clemente et al. 2021). There are many significant historic areas in this region, some of which are humanity's oldest settlements. This study focused on the Western and Southern Coasts of Turkey and the coastal zones of Greece and along with the Aegean islands, located in the Eastern Mediterranean (Fig. 1). The study area given in Fig. 1 was determined by considering the administrative borders of Turkey and Greece and the regions adjacent to the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. Also, historic areas located in the chosen region that are far from the coastline and do not have the risk of being inundated are excluded from the database. In addition to these, the region chosen as the study area is visited by over 80 million tourists annually. For this reason, it would be beneficial to accelerate the studies on historical areas that have a high risk of inundation.

Coastlines are alike as a buffer zone between land and water. Therefore, for this reason, coastlines are the most prone zones to sea-level rise (Linham and Nicholls 2015; Sharaan et al. 2022). Sea-level rise is classified as a threat on a global scale arising from global warming and climate change, especially for coastlines with low slope topography (Pachauri et al. 2014; Pazini et al. 2022). The most significant threat caused by sea-level rise is inundation, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and groundwater level increase. Due to these risks, different zones such as agricultural and industrial areas, settlements, roads, infrastructure facilities, vegetation, and habitats of animals may be affected, along with historical areas that are the subject of the study. The study area consists of coastlines with steep cliffs and low-lying shores that are highly prone to inundation. However, many large and small islands are also in the Aegean Sea prone to inundation (Erol 1990; Tsimplis and Baker 2000; Karaca and Nicholls 2008). The flowchart given in Fig. 2 was followed in order to create inundation risk maps for different scenarios for the study area given in Fig. 1.

3.1. Database Collection

The UNESCO database was used to collect the historic areas in the study area that are at risk of being inundated due to sea-level rise. Names, locations and coordinates of UNESCO World Heritages and areas in the tentative list added to the database of this study. In addition to this initial location collection, data scraping was carried out using Python programming language and Google Maps API to determine significant historic areas such as archaeological sites, ruins, castles, fortresses, towers, cemeteries, caves, and religious places not included in UNESCO lists. Google Map labels for these areas were used to data scraping such as; Historical landmark, Fortress, Archaeological museum, Tourist attraction, Local history museum, and etc. during data scraping. Eventually, a few historic areas were added to the database using manual scanning over the study area given in Fig. 1. As a result of data preparation and compilation studies, the information of 464 historical areas has been added to the database (Table 1). Historic areas in the database are also classified according to their types: archeological site, castle/fortress, port/shipyard, ruin, tower, etc. According to this classification, 135 of 464 historic sites are classified as archeological site, 75 castles/fortresses, 14 necropolis, 15 port/shipyards 76 religious building, 99 ruin, 21 structures, 20 tower and 9 tumulus (Table 2).

Table 1

List of historical areas in the study area along with their identifying information.
#	Name	Country	Type	Longitude	Latitude
1	Abdera Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	329420	4533569
2	Abdulhamid Mosque	Greece	Religious	424594	4247449
3	Acheron Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	58087	4363012
4	Achilles Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	428178	4419067
5	Adramytteion Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	494551	4372296
6	Af Tower	Turkey	Tower	682190	4050429
7	Agia Agathi Monastery	Greece	Religious	598924	4004344
8	Agia Fotini Chapel	Greece	Religious	518279	3930211
9	Agios Nikoalos Church	Greece	Religious	290389	4311383
10	Agios Nikolaos Monastery	Greece	Religious	110968	4246727
11	Agios Nikolaos Tower	Greece	Ruin	221338	4461116
12	Agiou Pavlou Montastery	Greece	Religious	269281	4449332
13	Agoios Mamas Tumulus	Greece	Tumulus	189477	4464774
14	Ai Dimitri Monastery	Turkey	Religious	472388	4354480
15	Aigai Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	103311	4492581
16	Akanthos Archeological Site	Greece	Religious	235729	4476418
17	Akronafplia's Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	128529	4165970
18	Alanya Ancient Shipyard	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	947674	4055025
19	Alanya Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	946944	4054849
20	Alexandria Troas Ruin	Turkey	Ruin	427964	4400715
21	Aliki Archaeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	309051	4497559
22	Alos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	139118	4341337
23	Amalfi Tower	Greece	Tower	273407	4454217
24	Amfanes Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	149145	4359609
25	Ammon Zeus Temple	Greece	Religious	197221	4442543
26	Amos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	613061	4068675
27	Amphiareion of Oropos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	224153	4243042
28	Amyntas Rock Tombs	Turkey	Necropolis	689482	4054864
29	Anaktoroupolis Archeological City	Greece	Archeological Site	273126	4523055
30	Anamurium Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	1023236	4002231
31	Ancient Church	Turkey	Religious	541340	4104178
32	Ancient City of Fisherman	Greece	Ruin	159091	4136948
33	Ancient City of Korikos	Turkey	Ruin	1141104	4059652
34	Ancient City of Korykos	Turkey	Ruin	1141501	4059595
35	Ancient City of Myra	Turkey	Ruin	768271	4016979
36	Ancient City of Pompeipolis	Turkey	Ruin	1173723	4093028
37	Ancient City of Sebaste	Turkey	Ruin	1143284	4061470
38	Ancient City of Side	Turkey	Ruin	892007	4078304
39	Ancient Dim Creek Bridge	Turkey	Structure	953348	4054556
40	Ancient Fortress of Aigosthena	Greece	Castle/Fortress	169533	4229090
41	Ancient Girl Fortress	Turkey	Ruin	1141231	4059406
42	Ancient Inscriptions	Greece	Ruin	16084	4115791
43	Ancient Lavrion	Greece	Archeological Site	240416	4181003
44	Ancient Lighthouse	Turkey	Structure	707370	4015776
45	Ancient Methone Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	125585	4489203
46	Ancient Nisaia	Greece	Archeological Site	179833	4209888
47	Ancient Palace of Demetrias	Greece	Ruin	149518	4362869
48	Ancient Port of Lechaeum	Greece	Port/Shipyard	138706	4206714
49	Ancient Pydna Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	128052	4481295
50	Ancient Rhosos Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	1297169	4066638
51	Ancient Roman Bridge	Turkey	Structure	1258357	4101901
52	Ancient Roman Ruins	Greece	Ruin	420557	3867723
53	Ancient Roman Villa	Greece	Ruin	405842	3877891
54	Ancient Salamis Port	Greece	Port/Shipyard	195978	4206140
55	Ancient Sariseki Castle	Turkey	Religious	1325073	4097091
56	Ancient Shipyard	Greece	Ruin	102424	4263466
57	Ancient Venetian Tower	Greece	Ruin	182413	4160362
58	Ancient Wooden Bridge of Amfipolis	Greece	Ruin	233113	4524752
59	Andriake Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	765679	4013282
60	Antandros Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	481014	4380378
61	Antic Agora	Greece	Ruin	39347	4246172
62	Antikyhira Castle Ruin	Greece	Ruin	165563	3977886
63	Antiphellos Ancient Theatre	Turkey	Ruin	736958	4009520
64	Antirrio Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	42361	4255419
65	Aperial Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	750471	4005295
66	Apollon Holy Ground	Turkey	Religious	571569	4069633
67	Apollon Temple	Turkey	Religious	891660	4077870
68	Apollonia Tower	Greece	Tower	258971	4514132
69	Appolonia Temple	Turkey	Ruin	745370	4006048
70	Aptera Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	240664	3928310
71	Aptera Ottoman Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	241198	3928597
72	Arachovitika Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	48946	4255092
73	Argassi Bridge	Greece	Ruin	35580	4197549
74	Argos Ancient Agora	Greece	Ruin	122315	4173680
75	Argostoli Obelist	Greece	Structure	69942	4245479
76	Ari Burnu Cemetery	Turkey	Necropolis	438558	4454719
77	Arsuz Stela	Turkey	Ruin	1297304	4066868
78	Artemis Tavropolos Temple	Greece	Religious	417023	4164503
79	Artemis Temple	Turkey	Religious	532028	4200477
80	Asine Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	135505	4161567
81	Aspendos Archaeological Site	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	871670	4096417
82	Assos Ancient Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	443304	4371126
83	Assos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	443024	4371626
84	Assos Venetian Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	64953	4268386
85	Astypalaea Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	442349	4044677
86	Astyra Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	490180	4382211
87	Atemeus Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	493118	4327057
88	Athena Temple	Turkey	Religious	454723	4248429
89	Athenians Marathon Tumulus	Greece	Tumulus	235144	4223398
90	Athens Acropolis	Greece	Archeological Site	212493	4207890
91	Aulis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	202701	4259760
92	Ayazma Church	Turkey	Religious	473413	4351710
93	Aydapinar Ancient Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	970221	4032310
94	Ayios Ioannis Loukas Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	310707	4499042
95	Aylos Haralambos Church	Turkey	Religious	439237	4242314
96	Aziz Antuan Latino Catholic Church	Turkey	Religious	1181653	4100299
97	Baba Island Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	651323	4062346
98	Babakale Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	419577	4370578
99	Bargilya Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	552374	4116781
100	Bastion Del Carretto	Greece	Castle/Fortress	610468	4033761
101	Bochali Venetian Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	38123	4200183
102	Bodrum Ancient Theatre	Turkey	Ruin	537541	4099581
103	Bodrum Windmills	Turkey	Structure	536798	4097893
104	Bourtzi Byzantine Fortress	Greece	Ruin	487151	4112840
105	Bourtzi Castle of Kechrees	Greece	Ruin	147886	4200621
106	Bozcaada Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	420714	4410171
107	Bozukkale	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	590951	4047373
108	Brauron Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	235904	4202092
109	Byzantine Maronia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	374687	4526017
110	Çandarlı Fortress	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	494299	4309615
111	Captain Christeas Tower	Greece	Tower	80388	4084463
112	Carthaea Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	264243	4160645
113	Castillo del Mar	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1286017	4105711
114	Castle of Chios	Greece	Castle/Fortress	424660	4247788
115	Castle Ruins of Knights of St. John	Greece	Castle/Fortress	574899	4052416
116	Çataltepe Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	424642	4508788
117	Caunos Tombs of The Kings	Turkey	Necropolis	645848	4077734
118	Cenchreae Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	147583	4200508
119	Çeşme Fortress	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	439119	4242142
120	Chana Ruins	Greece	Ruin	418588	4524442
121	Chandakas Tower	Greece	Tower	233676	4525505
122	Chania Old Venetian Port	Greece	Port/Shipyard	229575	3934610
123	Choros Afitis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	196626	4444501
124	Choros Iniade Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	7187	4267753
125	Choros Ippola Archeological site	Greece	Archeological Site	84091	4049835
126	Choros Kaveiriou Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	358442	4426958
127	Choros Kommos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	295723	3877008
128	Choros Lasea Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	301027	3868664
129	Chronon Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	34317	4349788
130	Chrysocheria Castle	Greece	Ruin	497386	4090037
131	Chrysolakkos Ruins	Greece	Ruin	363071	3907328
132	Corfu Old Town	Greece	Archeological Site	107100	4410106
133	Crane Ancient Ruins	Greece	Ruin	67900	4244740
134	Damouchari Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	171226	4368836
135	Dardanelles Battle Zones	Turkey	Archeological Site	439027	4450817
136	Datca Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	562429	4065909
137	De Naillac Tower	Greece	Tower	610238	4034331
138	Delikkemer Aqueduct	Turkey	Ruin	712571	4016060
139	Delos	Greece	Archeological Site	346537	4141001
140	Delphi Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	107421	4268877
141	Diana Temple	Greece	Religious	482331	4115195
142	Didyma Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	522741	4137784
143	Dion Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	116175	4456982
144	Dionysos Theatre	Greece	Castle/Fortress	212605	4207753
145	Dionysus Lesbos Temple	Greece	Religious	428122	4318028
146	Docheiariou Monastery	Greece	Religious	259649	4461372
147	Drakano Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	443813	4171493
148	Early Bronze Age Burial Ground	Greece	Necropolis	245628	4435493
149	Early Bronze Age Tumulus	Greece	Tumulus	47693	4302323
150	Early Christian Amphipolis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	234199	4523775
151	Early Christian Basilica of Halimous	Greece	Castle/Fortress	212730	4200595
152	Early Christian Basilica of Kiato	Greece	Ruin	126951	4214971
153	Early Christian Basilica of Lechaeum	Greece	Ruin	138247	4206715
154	Early Christian Basilica of Saint Athanasius	Greece	Castle/Fortress	235774	4430015
155	Early Christian Necropolis	Greece	Necropolis	492942	4094344
156	Elaia Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	503401	4310450
157	Elefsina Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	196224	4216071
158	Emporio Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	415213	4228053
159	Enez Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	422431	4508716
160	Ephesus Ancient Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	524420	4199500
161	Ephesus Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	529836	4199727
162	Eretria Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	219763	4254965
163	Ermioni Archeolohical Site	Greece	Archeological Site	168581	4144218
164	Favierou Castle	Greece	Ruin	178989	4163010
165	Feraklos Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	598899	4003544
166	Fethiye Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	689048	4054839
167	Finike Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	782614	4021376
168	Fiskardo Roman Cemetery	Greece	Necropolis	60543	4276556
169	Foça Fortress	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	478368	4280277
170	Four Foot Church	Turkey	Religious	1039912	4011939
171	Four Foot Mausoleums	Turkey	Ruin	1069603	4019176
172	Frangokastello Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	248151	3896905
173	Galissos Ruins	Greece	Ruin	312244	4143775
174	Gallipoli Battle Zones	Turkey	Archeological Site	430711	4434258
175	Gate of Piraeus	Greece	Ruin	204378	4205509
176	Gelidonia Lighthouse	Turkey	Structure	806561	4013828
177	Genoese Hasan Pasha Mansion	Turkey	Structure	431490	4419554
178	Girl's Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1141058	4058626
179	Girls's Monastery	Turkey	Religious	468342	4357974
180	Gitana Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	79002	4402058
181	Glarentza Castle	Greece	Ruin	15390	4215697
182	Glarentza Medieval Church	Greece	Ruin	15042	4215489
183	Gökçetepe Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	469839	4498704
184	Gonia Odigitria Monastery	Greece	Religious	207883	3939059
185	Goritsa Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	153368	4364081
186	Gournia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	390036	3886036
187	Great Lavra Monastery	Greece	Religious	277212	4450173
188	Great Lavra Monastery Port	Greece	Religious	277739	4450208
189	Grigorious Monastery	Greece	Religious	266410	4451467
190	Gryneion Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	505477	4303291
191	Güvercinada Fortress	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	521927	4190845
192	Gytheio Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	103982	4078023
193	Hadrian's Gate	Turkey	Structure	830579	4088747
194	Hafsa Sultana Caravanserai	Turkey	Structure	613603	4079311
195	Halicarnassus Ancient City Walls	Turkey	Ruin	536873	4098517
196	Has Yunus Bey Tomb	Turkey	Tower	422407	4508248
197	Helike Ruins	Greece	Ruin	73800	4241846
198	Hellenistic Ancient Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	737327	4009432
199	Hephaesti Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	356420	4425360
200	Hera Akraia Sanctuary	Greece	Religious	107589	4407843
201	Heraion of Samos	Greece	Archeological Site	490007	4169583
202	Hidirlik Tower	Turkey	Tower	830158	4088285
203	Hill 10 Cemetery	Turkey	Necropolis	436538	4462876
204	Historical Bridge	Turkey	Structure	1251148	4083901
205	Historical Iskenderun Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	1320895	4087612
206	Historical Iskenderun Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	1321740	4086409
207	Historical Windmills	Turkey	Structure	561896	4068666
208	Holy Trinity Church	Greece	Ruin	492845	4094846
209	Iassos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	551867	4126212
210	Ibrahim Aga Mosque	Turkey	Religious	613676	4079394
211	Idyma Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	619209	4102078
212	Idyros Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	819730	4056266
213	Istmia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	147831	4204379
214	Itanos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	433145	3902714
215	Iviron Monastery	Greece	Religious	269103	4458726
216	İzmir Clock Tower	Turkey	Structure	511073	4252399
217	Izzeddin Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	241440	3929013
218	Kalegerikos Mylos Monastery	Greece	Religious	229891	4483413
219	Kalenderis Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	1069294	4018696
220	Kamiros Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	582710	4021910
221	Kanakia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	184526	4201004
222	Kane Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	483837	4321468
223	Karababa Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	202070	4263139
224	Karakallou Monastery	Greece	Religious	271554	4456824
225	Karatay Medrese	Turkey	Religious	830212	4088764
226	Kardaki Doric Temple	Greece	Religious	107569	4407670
227	Kastri Early Christian Basilica	Greece	Archeological Site	353787	3910140
228	Kaunos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	644543	4076896
229	Kavala Aqueducts	Greece	Ruin	282467	4535129
230	Kavala Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	282458	4534872
231	Kazarma Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	418818	3896993
232	Kedrai Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	607209	4094968
233	Kefalos Basilica	Greece	Religious	498637	4067566
234	Keramos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	584804	4100082
235	Kibyra Ancient Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	917924	4065886
236	Kinet Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	1317338	4118192
237	Kings Daughter Basilica	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	422994	4508041
238	Kioni Windmills	Greece	Ruin	49822	4274366
239	Kissamos Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	196418	3933546
240	Kithira Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	139288	4007831
241	Kizlarpinari Han	Turkey	Ruin	945406	4057332
242	Klazomenai Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	479932	4246230
243	Klazomenai Necropolis	Turkey	Necropolis	479375	4247080
244	Knidos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	533374	4060302
245	Knosos Centre	Greece	Archeological Site	333014	3907811
246	Kokina Rock Graveyard	Turkey	Necropolis	406169	4442197
247	Konacik Rock Graveyard	Turkey	Necropolis	1292819	4060612
248	Koroni Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	50416	4084144
249	Kos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	525961	4083306
250	Kreusis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	159467	4236158
251	Kritinia Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	572717	4013719
252	Kusadasi Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	522911	4190727
253	Kydonia Centre	Greece	Archeological Site	229282	3934788
254	Kyparissia Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	27953	4136090
255	Lakka Bastion	Greece	Castle/Fortress	92518	4365887
256	Lamia Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	104158	4316235
257	Larymna-Loryma Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	592837	4059372
258	Lefkandi-Xeropolis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	210280	4256658
259	Lerna Castle	Greece	Ruin	121056	4165247
260	Liman Tepe Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	480447	4246256
261	Limnaea Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	6149	4317262
262	Limyra Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	784618	4026695
263	Lindos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	598054	3994806
264	Lindos Mylos	Greece	Ruin	598395	3996070
265	Lion of Amphipolis	Greece	Structure	233681	4521878
266	Lissos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	207733	3904596
267	Livadostra Tower	Greece	Tower	160017	4236146
268	Lokris Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	157712	4293701
269	Loudias Ancient Roman Bridge	Greece	Structure	129484	4500820
270	Lycean Tomb	Greece	Necropolis	733534	4003988
271	Lycia (Olympos) Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	811428	4033722
272	Lycian Tomb	Greece	Necropolis	574090	4014662
273	Magarsus Ancient Theatre	Turkey	Ruin	1247907	4077241
274	Magydos Ancient Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	838861	4084705
275	Malia Centre	Greece	Archeological Site	362761	3906861
276	Mamure Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1031060	4009235
277	Mar Yuhanna Chruch	Turkey	Religious	1297585	4066799
278	Marmaris Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	613657	4079229
279	Mausoleum of Halicarnassus	Turkey	Ruin	537769	4099337
280	Medieval Tower	Greece	Tower	569234	4005588
281	Medieval Tower	Greece	Tower	383444	4524792
282	Mesimvria Archeological Site	Greece	Ruin	385393	4524590
283	Messene Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	48833	4126305
284	Mession Temple	Greece	Religious	440080	4338988
285	Methoni Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	27628	4087726
286	Metochi I.M. Konstamonitou Athos	Greece	Ruin	224875	4447319
287	Metohi of Gregoriou Monastery	Greece	Religious	226910	4442762
288	Metohi of Xiropotamou Monastery	Greece	Religious	241209	4442720
289	Miletus Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	524826	4153824
290	Mindos Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	520433	4101385
291	Minoa Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	243808	3932955
292	Minoan Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	434188	3895128
293	Mochlos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	400482	3894452
294	Monemvasia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	147305	4067759
295	Moni Pantokratoros Monastery	Greece	Religious	267700	4463006
296	Moonlight Monastery	Turkey	Religious	470368	4359890
297	Mycenae Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	125875	4184499
298	Mycenean Ruins	Greece	Ruin	173573	4161435
299	Mykonos Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	352137	4145982
300	Myrina Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	333762	4416183
301	Myrina/Sebatepolis Tumulus	Turkey	Tumulus	499054	4299672
302	Mytilene Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	462211	4329441
303	Myus Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	537644	4161549
304	Nafpaktos Lighthouse and Walls	Greece	Structure	48370	4262176
305	Nafpaktos Venetian Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	48174	4262484
306	Naula Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	958622	4048980
307	Nea Anchialos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	139172	4355920
308	Neratze Mosque	Greece	Religious	270608	3917088
309	Neratzia Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	525907	4083460
310	New Venetian Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	108147	4410397
311	Nicopolis Roman Theatre	Greece	Structure	42300	4338262
312	Nikopolis Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	42721	4336690
313	Oenoe Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	426068	4165349
314	Oesyme Ruins	Greece	Ruin	272764	4522586
315	Olbia Ancient Road	Turkey	Ruin	826274	4087784
316	Old Roman Port	Greece	Port/Shipyard	308514	4187765
317	Old Ruins	Greece	Ruin	381540	4525316
318	Olous Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	385059	3902508
319	Olympia Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	26043	4179454
320	Olympos Genoese Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	811972	4033592
321	Oria Castle	Greece	Archeological Site	270981	4149586
322	Palace of the Knights of Rhodes	Greece	Castle/Fortress	609756	4034262
323	Palamari Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	284346	4316015
324	Pali Ancient City Ruins	Greece	Ruin	74913	4251001
325	Pantocrator Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	42738	4329584
326	Parga Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	69647	4369179
327	Pasabeleni Nagidos Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	1038465	4011792
328	Patara Archaeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	708181	4015658
329	Patras Catle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	39755	4246269
330	Pavlopetri Underwater Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	140698	4048901
331	Payas Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1322472	4107518
332	Perachora Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	135952	4217212
333	Perge Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	843183	4097699
334	Phaistos Centre	Greece	Archeological Site	300703	3881087
335	Phalasarna Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	188956	3935294
336	Phaselis Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	818145	4048107
337	Philippi Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	271765	4543753
338	Phokala Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	479063	4280389
339	Phoneiks Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	596560	4050809
340	Phylakope Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	277337	4070812
341	Pidnai Fortress	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	700363	4023410
342	Pirene Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	526277	4168218
343	Plasi Marathon Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	236595	4223975
344	Plevrona Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	11866	4266771
345	Poliochni Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	358270	4412868
346	Poroi Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	342743	4541420
347	Portara of Naxos	Greece	Ruin	355667	4107191
348	Potidea Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	187786	4456232
349	Proasteio Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	194465	4430031
350	Procurator's Mausoleum	Greece	Ruin	273442	4210713
351	Prosphorion Tower	Greece	Tower	243461	4468395
352	Psilis Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	651633	4063517
353	Pylos Catle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	26934	4098487
354	Pyrgos Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	371791	3875042
355	Ragib Efendi Mansion	Turkey	Structure	420528	4409770
356	Ramnous Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	239841	4234121
357	Red Tower	Turkey	Tower	947630	4055266
358	Rhodes Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	608596	4033631
359	Rio Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	43656	4253455
360	Ro Hellenistic Tower	Greece	Tower	725169	4004419
361	Rocca a Mare Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	330728	3913028
362	Roman Adueduct	Turkey	Ruin	1142725	4061518
363	Roman Ancient Theatre	Turkey	Ruin	829932	4088708
364	Roman Aqueduct	Greece	Ruin	204386	4262621
365	Roman Bath	Turkey	Ruin	823617	4086049
366	Roman Bath Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	491330	4214950
367	Roman Bathouse Ruins	Greece	Ruin	38109	4086051
368	Roman Baths	Greece	Ruin	39355	4245589
369	Roman Bridge of Eleusis	Greece	Ruin	197405	4216847
370	Roman Harbour	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	830096	4088670
371	Roman Necropol	Greece	Necropolis	360126	4022811
372	Roman Odeon	Greece	Ruin	39463	4246101
373	Roman Tower	Greece	Ruin	33802	4190567
374	Roman Villa of Saint Euphemia	Greece	Ruin	59977	4259068
375	Saint Andrew Monastery	Greece	Religious	59366	4212309
376	Saint Dionysios Monastery	Greece	Religious	267944	4450191
377	Saint Eirene Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	264171	4172621
378	Saint George Church	Greece	Religious	221900	4512870
379	Saint Goerge Greek Orthodox Church	Greece	Religious	724565	4004508
380	Saint John Monastery	Greece	Religious	277219	4447116
381	Saint Lydia Chruch	Greece	Religious	224469	4517179
382	Saint Nicholas Church	Greece	Religious	374544	4266896
383	Saint Nicholas Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	610089	4034874
384	Saint Panteleimon Monastery	Greece	Religious	261977	4458112
385	Saint Paul Byzantine Tower	Greece	Tower	193606	4448977
386	Saint Peter Dominican Church	Greece	Religious	330296	3912823
387	Saint Svass Church	Greece	Religious	734007	4003680
388	Sami Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	55655	4253379
389	Samiko Ruins	Greece	Ruin	22001	4167707
390	Samothrace Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	375360	4484874
391	Sanctuary of Amarysia Artemis	Greece	Religious	230039	4253496
392	Sanctuary of Apollo Phanaios	Greece	Religious	406417	4229516
393	Sanctuary of Poseidon Akovitika	Greece	Religious	61960	4110442
394	Sanctuary of the Egyptian Gods	Greece	Ruin	235216	4221755
395	Seleucia Pieria	Turkey	Ruin	1303413	4035191
396	Selinus Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	974686	4026168
397	Seljuk Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	532393	4201107
398	Sigeion Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	430108	4427082
399	Simena Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	757419	4009127
400	Siphai Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	154127	4234453
401	Sissi Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	366208	3908479
402	Skiathos Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	194451	4346265
403	Smryna Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	512640	4252173
404	Softa Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1042019	4012510
405	Sokullu Mehmed Pasha Caravanserai	Turkey	Structure	1322619	4107531
406	Soli Pompeipolis Ancient Port	Turkey	Ruin	1173890	4092651
407	Solia Chruch	Greece	Religious	198197	4440939
408	Sophronios Basilica	Greece	Castle/Fortress	217497	4456262
409	Soura	Turkey	Religious	764235	4014880
410	Spinalonga Fortress	Greece	Castle/Fortress	385311	3906963
411	St. Nicholas Chapel	Greece	Religious	737005	3999497
412	St. Nicholas Church	Turkey	Religious	768321	4015427
413	St.Paul Church	Turkey	Religious	1204180	4114779
414	Stageria Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	228570	4498342
415	Stavronikita Monastery	Greece	Religious	268527	4461256
416	Stavronikita Tower	Greece	Tower	185092	4445583
417	Sterna Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	39344	4314066
418	Stryme Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	355865	4533491
419	Suleiman Mosque	Greece	Religious	609768	4034064
420	Suleiman Tower and Ancient Caves	Turkey	Tower	1284211	4105490
421	Symintheion Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	424200	4376867
422	Tainaro Archeological site	Greece	Archeological Site	95232	4038145
423	Temple of Apollo Eremithios	Greece	Religious	592498	4026212
424	Temple of Artemis Tauropolos	Greece	Religious	237327	4207964
425	Temple of Athena	Greece	Religious	307522	4516712
426	Temple of Dionysus	Turkey	Religious	481220	4225681
427	Teos Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	481010	4225981
428	Teos Port	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	481811	4225003
429	Thasos Acropolis	Greece	Necropolis	307453	4517252
430	Thasos Ancient City	Greece	Archeological Site	307089	4517021
431	The Bodrum Castle	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	538232	4098648
432	The Historical Port City of Izmir	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	512071	4252489
433	The Virgin Mary Church	Turkey	Religious	586705	4048868
434	Theimussa Ancient City	Turkey	Ruin	756318	4009758
435	Thessalonika Monuments	Greece	Structure	158244	4507243
436	Thessaloniki White Tower	Greece	Tower	157353	4505375
437	Thimonia Tower	Greece	Tower	306942	4497786
438	Tiryns Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	128999	4169793
439	Toroni Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	235377	4430005
440	Tripitou Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	420726	3895589
441	Troy Archeological Site	Turkey	Archeological Site	435021	4423476
442	Tymnos Ruins	Turkey	Ruin	592870	4061490
443	Tzannetakis Tower	Greece	Tower	104790	4076929
444	Vatopedi Monastery	Greece	Religious	263131	4466553
445	Veli Pasha Mosque	Greece	Religious	270883	3916460
446	Venetian Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	151614	4328335
447	Venetian Fortezza Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	270274	3917440
448	Venetian Gate	Greece	Structure	330750	3912211
449	Venetian Heraklion Dockyards	Greece	Port/Shipyard	330783	3912798
450	Venetian Lighthouse of Fiskardo	Greece	Structure	60166	4276644
451	Venetian Naousa Paros Castle	Greece	Castle/Fortress	343614	4110406
452	Venetian Shipyard	Greece	Port/Shipyard	113948	4413906
453	Venetian Watch Tower	Greece	Ruin	39987	4203882
454	Viena Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	188723	3905072
455	Virgin Mary Church	Turkey	Religious	420391	4410066
456	Virgin Monastery Monastery	Turkey	Religious	468842	4353333
457	Vlacherna Monastery	Greece	Religious	70526	4368805
458	Vroulia Ruins	Greece	Ruin	569013	3972789
459	Vryokastraki Archeological Site	Greece	Archeological Site	269076	4143084
460	Xanthos-Letoon	Turkey	Archeological Site	705497	4023238
461	Xenophontos Monastery	Greece	Religious	260113	4460472
462	Yivli Minaret Mosque	Turkey	Religious	830214	4088884
463	Zakros Centre	Greece	Archeological Site	432742	3884355
464	Zygos Monastery	Greece	Religious	245356	4467334

3.2 Pre-processing Imagery Data and DEMs

Digital elevation models (DEMs) are the essential input parameters used to determine historical areas that are at risk of being inundated by sea-level rise. DEMs are widely used to create flood and inundation maps to identify the vulnerable zones to sea-level rise due to global climate change and warming (Kulp and Strauss 2019). Inundated areas due to sea-level rise can be determined with certain precision depending on the resolution of DEMs. Pixel-based raster processing tools with a raster calculator module with the ArcGIS Pro software can determine areas inundated due to sea-level rise. 98 different SRTM images which can be called mosaic were used to create a single raster represent the study area. For this process, the most up-to-date satellite images with a cloud cover ratio is less than 10% were preferred during the collection of satellite images. In order to slightly increase the resolution of the raster and to reduce possible errors for inundation mapping, resampling of the raster was carried out during pre-processing phase. NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), which was announced in 2000 and became a global open source in 2015, is used in many studies on a global scale (Su and Guo 2014; Pham et al. 2018; Martyr-Koller et al. 2021). Up-to-date satellite images provided by Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 1 Arc-Second Global with 30 meters resolution are used to create DEMs of the study area.

3.3 Inundation Mapping

5 different sea-level rise projections for both global and local scale are taken into account to create inundation risk maps (Ozturk et al. 2018; Oppenheimer et al. 2019). Climate change and carbon emission-induced global mean sea-level rise (GMSL) are caused by thermal expansion of the ocean water and mass gain, the latter mainly due to a decline in inland-ice mass. GMSL is modified regionally by climate processes and locally by various factors, some driven or affected by human activity. The gradual change of mean sea level with extreme sea level (ESL) events such as tides, surges, and waves yields coastal effects. Extreme sea-level rise-induced events at the coasts that are rare today will become more frequent in the future, which means that for considerable areas, the main starting point for coastal planning and decision making is information on present and forthcoming sea-level rise-induced events. One of the best ways to be prepared for these events and be proactive in terms of conversion is to improve observational systems such as local tide gauges, which need to be implemented by governments, wave buoys, and remote sensing techniques. Because, in many locations in the world, the effect of sea-level rise and possible events is not well understood sufficiently due to a lack of predictive studies on a regional and local scale and lack of observational data. Based on current global data and trends, it is predicted that, beyond 2050, sea-level rise increase will continue to rise substantially due to uncertainties in emission scenarios and climate change. It is expected that the sea-level rise may vary between 100 to 500 cm considering best and worst-case scenarios created considering global efforts and current trends (Qu et al. 2019; Covi et al. 2021; McEvoy et al. 2021; Martyr-Koller et al. 2021; Vacchi et al. 2021).

Considering 5 sea-level rise scenarios created by using local and global prediction data, 464 historical areas were classified under 5 different risk classes (Tables 2 and 3). The effects of sea-level rise and inundation risk of the historical areas are shown separately to be more precise. It is expected that an increase of 100 cm in sea-level, which is expected to occur in the short term, will have an effect of 60 km in the Thessaloniki (Greece) region and 30 km from the coast to the interior regions in Adana, Mersin and Izmir (Turkey). In Fig. 3, areas inundated due to sea-level rise for each scenario are shown. Sea-level rise in Adana and Mersin, Antalya, Muğla, Aydın and Izmir in Turkey, and Alexandroupoli, Thessaloniki and the western coast of Greece is expected to be effective in the short term (< 50 years). The regions that are expected to be affected by sea-level rise consist of low-lying topography, predominantly intense agricultural activities, and residential areas. For this reason, it is observed that the risk of inundation in these areas increases at higher sea-level rise. These scenarios created were classified according to the sea-level rise varying between 100 and 500 cm, corresponding to the lowest and highest risk limits. 317 of the 464 historical sites evaluated within the study do not have inundation risk even in the worst-case scenario. However, 34 of these historical sites are at very high, 19 high, 27 medium, 26 low and 41 very low inundation risks. Total historic areas at risk constitute 32% of all areas. There is no risk of inundation even in the worst scenario for 317 historical areas. The archeological sites of Knidos in Turkey and Delos in Greece, which are on the UNESCO world heritage list, are at very high risk of being inundated. The first Western knowledge of the Knidos was due to the assignment of the Dilettante Society in 1812 and the excavations conducted by C. T. Newton in 1857–1858. Selcuk University (Turkey) is still carrying out archaeological excavations in the region. Delos is one of Greece's most significant mythological, historical, and archaeological sites. The excavations on the island are among the most comprehensive in the Mediterranean; ongoing work takes place under the direction of the Ephorate of Antiquities of Cyclades, and many of the artefacts found are on display at the Archaeological Museum of Delos and the National Archaeological Museum of Athens (Jones 2021). In addition to these two important historical areas, 9 archeological site and 6 castle/fortress, 3 port/shipyard, 7 ruin and 3 structure are also in this risk class.

Table 2

Risk classes corresponding to historic area type.
Type	# Historic Areas	Inundation Risk
Type	# Historic Areas	Very High	High	Medium	Low	Very Low	No Risk
Archeological Site	135	11	9	13	9	13	80
Castle/Fortress	75	6	2	0	2	6	59
Necropolis	14	0	1	0	0	2	11
Port/Shipyard	15	3	0	3	3	2	4
Religious	76	4	2	3	0	6	61
Ruin	99	7	6	4	9	9	64
Structure	21	3	1	0	2	2	13
Tower	20	0	0	2	1	1	16
Tumulus	9	0	0	0	0	0	9

Table 3

Risk classes corresponding to sea-level rise.
Sea-Level Rise (cm)	Risk Class	Inundatino Risk Description	# Historic Area Under Risk	Risk Ratio (%)^*
100	1	Very High	34	7.33
200	2	High	19	4.09
300	3	Medium	27	5.82
400	4	Low	26	5.60
500	5	Very Low	41	8.84
-	-	No Risk	317	68.32
* Ratio of the corresponding class to the total areas

Table 4

Inundation risk of historical areas by corresponding classes.
#	Name	Inundation Risk	Country	Type	Longitude	Latitude
1	Anaktoroupolis Archeological City	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	273126	4523055
2	Ancient Church	Very High	Turkey	Religious	541340	4104178
3	Choros Iniade Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	7187	4267753
4	Chronon Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	34317	4349788
5	Girls's Monastery	Very High	Turkey	Religious	468342	4357974
6	Sanctuary of Poseidon Akovitika	Very High	Greece	Religious	61960	4110442
7	Soura	Very High	Turkey	Religious	764235	4014880
8	Ancient City of Fisherman	Very High	Greece	Ruin	159091	4136948
9	Delos	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	346537	4141001
10	Antirrio Castle	Very High	Greece	Castle/Fortress	42361	4255419
11	Ancient Salamis Port	Very High	Greece	Port/Shipyard	195978	4206140
12	Castillo del Mar	Very High	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	1286017	4105711
13	Argassi Bridge	Very High	Greece	Ruin	35580	4197549
14	Kaunos Archeological Site	Very High	Turkey	Archeological Site	644543	4076896
15	Knidos Archeological Site	Very High	Turkey	Archeological Site	533374	4060302
16	Lokris Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	157712	4293701
17	Olous Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	385059	3902508
18	Pavlopetri Underwater Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	140698	4048901
19	Phylakope Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	277337	4070812
20	Bourtzi Castle of Kechrees	Very High	Greece	Ruin	147886	4200621
21	Elaia Ruins	Very High	Turkey	Ruin	503401	4310450
22	Roman Tower	Very High	Greece	Ruin	33802	4190567
23	Samiko Ruins	Very High	Greece	Ruin	22001	4167707
24	Soli Pompeipolis Ancient Port	Very High	Turkey	Ruin	1173890	4092651
25	Ancient Dim Creek Bridge	Very High	Turkey	Structure	953348	4054556
26	Mykonos Castle	Very High	Greece	Castle/Fortress	352137	4145982
27	Sissi Archeological Site	Very High	Greece	Archeological Site	366208	3908479
28	Argostoli Obelist	Very High	Greece	Structure	69942	4245479
29	Magydos Ancient Port	Very High	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	838861	4084705
30	Nafpaktos Lighthouse and Walls	Very High	Greece	Structure	48370	4262176
31	Teos Port	Very High	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	481811	4225003
32	Neratzia Castle	Very High	Greece	Castle/Fortress	525907	4083460
33	Rocca a Mare Fortress	Very High	Greece	Castle/Fortress	330728	3913028
34	Venetian Naousa Paros Castle	Very High	Greece	Castle/Fortress	343614	4110406
35	Agia Fotini Chapel	High	Greece	Religious	518279	3930211
36	Saint Svass Church	High	Greece	Religious	734007	4003680
37	Klazomenai Necropolis	High	Turkey	Necropolis	479375	4247080
38	Aperial Ancient City	High	Turkey	Ruin	750471	4005295
39	Datca Ruins	High	Turkey	Ruin	562429	4065909
40	Larymna-Loryma Ruins	High	Turkey	Ruin	592837	4059372
41	Limyra Ancient City	High	Turkey	Ruin	784618	4026695
42	Portara of Naxos	High	Greece	Ruin	355667	4107191
43	Acheron Archeological Site	High	Greece	Archeological Site	58087	4363012
44	Itanos Archeological Site	High	Greece	Archeological Site	433145	3902714
45	Tymnos Ruins	High	Turkey	Ruin	592870	4061490
46	Klazomenai Archeological Site	High	Turkey	Archeological Site	479932	4246230
47	Malia Centre	High	Greece	Archeological Site	362761	3906861
48	Miletus Archeological Site	High	Turkey	Archeological Site	524826	4153824
49	Poroi Archeological Site	High	Greece	Archeological Site	342743	4541420
50	Historical Bridge	High	Turkey	Structure	1251148	4083901
51	Tripitou Archeological Site	High	Greece	Archeological Site	420726	3895589
52	Viena Archeological Site	High	Greece	Archeological Site	188723	3905072
53	Zakros Centre	High	Greece	Archeological Site	432742	3884355
54	Prosphorion Tower	Medium	Greece	Tower	243461	4468395
55	Agios Nikoalos Church	Medium	Greece	Religious	290389	4311383
56	Kefalos Basilica	Medium	Greece	Religious	498637	4067566
57	Saint Paul Byzantine Tower	Medium	Greece	Tower	193606	4448977
58	Solia Chruch	Medium	Greece	Religious	198197	4440939
59	Antikyhira Castle Ruin	Medium	Greece	Ruin	165563	3977886
60	Early Christian Basilica of Lechaeum	Medium	Greece	Ruin	138247	4206715
61	Gate of Piraeus	Medium	Greece	Ruin	204378	4205509
62	Liman Tepe Ruins	Medium	Turkey	Ruin	480447	4246256
63	Ephesus Ancient Port	Medium	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	524420	4199500
64	Early Christian Basilica of Saint Athanasius	Medium	Greece	Castle/Fortress	235774	4430015
65	Güvercinada Fortress	Medium	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	521927	4190845
66	Aliki Archaeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	309051	4497559
67	Aulis Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	202701	4259760
68	Ayios Ioannis Loukas Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	310707	4499042
69	Cenchreae Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	147583	4200508
70	Ephesus Archeological Site	Medium	Turkey	Archeological Site	529836	4199727
71	Heraion of Samos	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	490007	4169583
72	Kos Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	525961	4083306
73	Kreusis Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	159467	4236158
74	Venetian Heraklion Dockyards	Medium	Greece	Port/Shipyard	330783	3912798
75	Lycia (Olympos) Archeological Site	Medium	Turkey	Archeological Site	811428	4033722
76	Minoa Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	243808	3932955
77	Mochlos Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	400482	3894452
78	Patara Archaeological Site	Medium	Turkey	Archeological Site	708181	4015658
79	Potidea Archeological Site	Medium	Greece	Archeological Site	187786	4456232
80	Venetian Shipyard	Medium	Greece	Port/Shipyard	113948	4413906
81	Ancient City of Pompeipolis	Low	Turkey	Ruin	1173723	4093028
82	Ancient Shipyard	Low	Greece	Ruin	102424	4263466
83	Ancient Venetian Tower	Low	Greece	Ruin	182413	4160362
84	Ancient Wooden Bridge of Amfipolis	Low	Greece	Ruin	233113	4524752
85	Early Christian Basilica of Kiato	Low	Greece	Ruin	126951	4214971
86	Galissos Ruins	Low	Greece	Ruin	312244	4143775
87	Has Yunus Bey Tomb	Low	Turkey	Tower	422407	4508248
88	Kalenderis Ancient City	Low	Turkey	Ruin	1069294	4018696
89	Kusadasi Ruins	Low	Turkey	Ruin	522911	4190727
90	Sanctuary of the Egyptian Gods	Low	Greece	Ruin	235216	4221755
91	Kissamos Fortress	Low	Greece	Castle/Fortress	196418	3933546
92	Sophronios Basilica	Low	Greece	Castle/Fortress	217497	4456262
93	Loudias Ancient Roman Bridge	Low	Greece	Structure	129484	4500820
94	Arachovitika Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	48946	4255092
95	Dion Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	116175	4456982
96	Gryneion Archeological Site	Low	Turkey	Archeological Site	505477	4303291
97	Iassos Archeological Site	Low	Turkey	Archeological Site	551867	4126212
98	Lissos Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	207733	3904596
99	Minoan Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	434188	3895128
100	Nea Anchialos Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	139172	4355920
101	Perachora Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	135952	4217212
102	Saint Eirene Archeological Site	Low	Greece	Archeological Site	264171	4172621
103	Venetian Lighthouse of Fiskardo	Low	Greece	Structure	60166	4276644
104	Ancient Port of Lechaeum	Low	Greece	Port/Shipyard	138706	4206714
105	Chania Old Venetian Port	Low	Greece	Port/Shipyard	229575	3934610
106	Old Roman Port	Low	Greece	Port/Shipyard	308514	4187765
107	Artemis Tavropolos Temple	Very Low	Greece	Religious	417023	4164503
108	Dionysus Lesbos Temple	Very Low	Greece	Religious	428122	4318028
109	Great Lavra Monastery Port	Very Low	Greece	Religious	277739	4450208
110	Metohi of Gregoriou Monastery	Very Low	Greece	Religious	226910	4442762
111	Fiskardo Roman Cemetery	Very Low	Greece	Necropolis	60543	4276556
112	Ancient Roman Ruins	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	420557	3867723
113	Saint Peter Dominican Church	Very Low	Greece	Religious	330296	3912823
114	Sanctuary of Amarysia Artemis	Very Low	Greece	Religious	230039	4253496
115	Andriake Ancient City	Very Low	Turkey	Ruin	765679	4013282
116	Bozcaada Castle	Very Low	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	420714	4410171
117	Çeşme Fortress	Very Low	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	439119	4242142
118	Bourtzi Byzantine Fortress	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	487151	4112840
119	Glarentza Medieval Church	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	15042	4215489
120	Lindos Mylos	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	598395	3996070
121	Frangokastello Fortress	Very Low	Greece	Castle/Fortress	248151	3896905
122	Gökçetepe Castle	Very Low	Turkey	Castle/Fortress	469839	4498704
123	Methoni Castle	Very Low	Greece	Castle/Fortress	27628	4087726
124	Thessaloniki White Tower	Very Low	Greece	Tower	157353	4505375
125	Pantocrator Castle	Very Low	Greece	Castle/Fortress	42738	4329584
126	Roman Necropol	Very Low	Greece	Necropolis	360126	4022811
127	Olbia Ancient Road	Very Low	Turkey	Ruin	826274	4087784
128	Pali Ancient City Ruins	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	74913	4251001
129	Roman Bathouse Ruins	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	38109	4086051
130	Roman Villa of Saint Euphemia	Very Low	Greece	Ruin	59977	4259068
131	Abdera Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	329420	4533569
132	Brauron Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	235904	4202092
133	Elefsina Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	196224	4216071
134	Gytheio Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	103982	4078023
135	Kastri Early Christian Basilica	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	353787	3910140
136	Oenoe Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	426068	4165349
137	Palamari Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	284346	4316015
138	Ancient Lighthouse	Very Low	Turkey	Structure	707370	4015776
139	Plasi Marathon Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	236595	4223975
140	Poliochni Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	358270	4412868
141	Sami Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	55655	4253379
142	Tainaro Archeological site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	95232	4038145
143	Tiryns Archeological Site	Very Low	Greece	Archeological Site	128999	4169793
144	Ancient Roman Bridge	Very Low	Turkey	Structure	1258357	4101901
145	Xanthos-Letoon	Very Low	Turkey	Archeological Site	705497	4023238
146	Assos Ancient Port	Very Low	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	443304	4371126
147	Historical Iskenderun Port	Very Low	Turkey	Port/Shipyard	1320895	4087612

In this study, an inundation risk map of 464 historical sites on the Aegean and Mediterranean coasts of Turkey together with Greece was created. During creation of the inundation map, the global and local sea-level rise assessments were considered. According to the determined scenarios, 464 historical areas were evaluated under 5 risk classes varying from very high to very low. As a result of the study, the following evaluations have emerged, and suggestions have been made.

34 historical areas in the study area are at risk of being entirely inundated in the short term (< 50 years). The historical cities of Knidos in Turkey and Delos in Greece are included in this class, which are also on the UNESCO lists and are important touristic centres.
Since approximately 32% of the 464 historical sites evaluated are at the risk of inundation due to sea-level rise, it is of great importance that the archaeological and conservation works to be carried out in these regions are planned on a location basis with the support of the governments.
Instituting these studies in areas with very high risk as soon as possible is essential for the success of the studies in the long run and the preservation of the human heritage.
Advanced measurement instruments like tide gauges and wave buoys should be installed to monitor sea-level rise constantly, starting from regions with very high risk. However, it would be beneficial to expand these measurement stations to cover the coasts of Turkey and Greece and increase the data quality.
It is necessary to carry out projects that include on-site measurements with the results of the radar altimeter, which measures the ocean surface height (sea level) by measuring the time it takes for a radar pulse to make a round trip from the satellite to the sea surface and the sea surface.
It is thought that this study will be beneficial for both researchers and local and government officials, especially during the planning of archaeological studies and conservation studies in historic areas.

Funding

The author declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Competing Interests

The author has no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

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Inundation Risk Mapping of Aegean and East Mediterranean Historic Areas

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Abstract

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1 Introduction

2 Study Area

3 Inundation Risk Mapping

3.1. Database Collection

3.2 Pre-processing Imagery Data and DEMs

3.3 Inundation Mapping

4 Results and Discussions

5. Conclusions

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