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Research Article
Ruth Kerry
Brigham Young University
Corresponding Author
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Mycotoxins are toxins produced by fungi which are harmful to humans and animals and can contaminate staple crops. Aflatoxins are particularly toxic and can cause liver cancer so the permitted levels in foodstuffs are legislated. Batches of grain where average aflatoxin concentrations are higher than legislative thresholds are rejected or sold at a lesser price for a more limited range of use. High maximum temperatures and low rainfall have been shown to increase contamination. For corn grown in Southern Georgia, USA, June weather is particularly important as this coincides with the sensitive mid-silk growth stage. An AFs survey and weather data have been used to show the association between AFs and June weather [1]. The risk factors were June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000-2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios and weather risk factors were calculated. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and rainfall <50mm increased significantly between 30-year time periods. The percentage of years that counties exceeded thresholds was greater for the RCP 8.5 than the RCP 4.5 scenario. A change in the spatial distribution of high-risk counties was seen over time. The results suggest the need for changes in the where crops are grown or the employment of adaptation strategies such as planting more resistant varieties, improving irrigation and planting earlier to avoid increasingly frequent rejection of grain batches. There were significantly more counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm in 2010-2040 compared to 2000-2030. This suggests that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.
Keywords
Mycotoxins, liver, cancer
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No competing interests reported.
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This preprint is under consideration at Scientific Reports. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Ruth Kerry
Brigham Young University
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Under Review
Version 1
Posted 29 Jan, 2021
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 26 Mar, 2021
Reviews received
Received 16 Mar, 2021
Reviewers agreed
On 03 Mar, 2021
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 29 Jan, 2021
Editor assigned
On 29 Jan, 2021
Editor invited
On 27 Jan, 2021
Submission checks complete
On 27 Jan, 2021
First submitted
On 22 Jan, 2021
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Mycotoxins are toxins produced by fungi which are harmful to humans and animals and can contaminate staple crops. Aflatoxins are particularly toxic and can cause liver cancer so the permitted levels in foodstuffs are legislated. Batches of grain where average aflatoxin concentrations are higher than legislative thresholds are rejected or sold at a lesser price for a more limited range of use. High maximum temperatures and low rainfall have been shown to increase contamination. For corn grown in Southern Georgia, USA, June weather is particularly important as this coincides with the sensitive mid-silk growth stage. An AFs survey and weather data have been used to show the association between AFs and June weather [1]. The risk factors were June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm, the 30-year normals for the region. Future climate data were estimated for each year (2000-2100) and county in southern GA using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios and weather risk factors were calculated. The number of counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and rainfall <50mm increased significantly between 30-year time periods. The percentage of years that counties exceeded thresholds was greater for the RCP 8.5 than the RCP 4.5 scenario. A change in the spatial distribution of high-risk counties was seen over time. The results suggest the need for changes in the where crops are grown or the employment of adaptation strategies such as planting more resistant varieties, improving irrigation and planting earlier to avoid increasingly frequent rejection of grain batches. There were significantly more counties with June maximum temperatures >33˚C and June rainfall <50mm in 2010-2040 compared to 2000-2030. This suggests that adaptation strategies should be employed as soon as possible.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
No competing interests reported.
This is a list of supplementary files associated with this preprint. Click to download.
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