Socio-economic Characteristics and Evacuation Behavior
An individual’s evacuation choice during a disaster is associated with socio-economic characteristics, as social interaction plays a crucial role in determining whether to evacuate or not (Ersing et al. 2020; Burnside et al. 2007). Therefore, nineteen socio-economic variables are listed in Table 2 regarding the evacuation status of the respondents. A chi-square test for independence with α = .05 is used here to analyze whether the evacuation behavior of the respondent is related to the socio-economic variable or not. The chi-square test is statistically significant for 12 out of 19 variables (shown in Table 2). According to the chi-square test result, gender, religion, number of family member, marital status, vehicle ownership, child below six years of age, and income are statistically insignificant. The significant variables are listed as: age, education, occupation, household type and ownership, COVID-19 awareness, land and cattle ownership, elderly population, previous cyclone and storm surge experience, and year of living.
Furthermore, to assume the effect of each variable on the evacuation decision of the respondents, the Phi coefficient and Cramer’s V analysis have been applied. Phi coefficient is a measure for the strength of an association between two categorical variables in a 2×2 contingency table (Prematunga 2012). In contrast, Cramer’s V is an alternative to phi in tables bigger than 2×2 tabulation (Grimm 1993). Akoglu (2018) classifies the Phi coefficient and Cramer’s V value; where the obtained values more than 0.25, 0.15 to 0.25, 0.1 to 0.15, and 0.5 to 0.1 indicate very strong, strong, moderate, and weak association respectively. According to the Phi/Cramer’s V value shown in Table 2, previous storm surges, household type, and education strongly associated with the evacuation decision on the respondent during cyclone Amphan. Moreover, year of living, respondent’s age, land ownership, cattle ownership, and occupation have strong relationship with the decision of the respondent to either evacuate or stay. It is also evident from the Phi co-efficient value that respondent’s awareness about COVID-19 spread plays a moderate role in the evacuation behavior during cyclone Amphan.
Table 2
The contrast between respondent evacuation status and socio-demographic profile
Indicator
|
|
Evacuee
|
Non-evacuee
|
Chi-square
|
Effect size (Cramer’s V/Phi)
|
Age
|
Less than 30 yrs.
30 yrs. To 45 yrs.
45 yrs. To 60 yrs.
Greater than 60 yrs.
|
21(36.8%)
66(34%)
60(57.1%)
12(54.5%)
|
36(63.2%)
128(66%)
45(42.9%)
10(45.5%)
|
χ2 = 16.991, df = 3, sig = 0.001**
|
V = 0.212
|
Gender
|
Male
Female
|
107(40.4%)
52(46.0%)
|
158(59.6%)
61(54.0%)
|
χ2 = 1.034, df = 1, sig = 0.309
|
φ = − .052
|
Religion
|
Muslim
Hindu
Christian
|
148(41.3%)
11(61.1%)
0(0%)
|
210(58.7%)
7(38.9%)
2(100%)
|
χ2 = 4.209, df = 2, sig = 0.122
|
V = 0.106
|
Education
|
Illiterate
Class I-V
Class VI-X
SSC or Equivalent
HSC or Equivalent
Honors or Equivalent
Masters or Equivalent
|
67(53.2%)
41(45.1%)
30(40%)
10(24.4%)
5(15.2%)
6(60%)
0(0%)
|
59(46.8%)
50(54.9%)
45(60%)
31(75.6%)
28(84.8%)
4(40%)
2(100%)
|
χ2 = 24.683, df = 6, sig = 0.001**
|
V = 0.256
|
Number of Family Member
|
3 Member
4 Member
5 Member
> 5 Member
|
16(50%)
61(42.7%)
54(40.6%)
28(40%)
|
16(50%)
82(57.3%)
79(59.4%)
42(60%)
|
χ2 = 1.087, df = 3, sig = 0.780
|
V = 0.054
|
Marital Status
|
Married
Unmarried
Widow/Divorced
|
153(41.6%)
0(0%)
6(75%)
|
215(58.4%)
2(100%)
2(25%)
|
χ2 = 5.054, df = 2, sig = 0.08
|
V = 0.116
|
Occupation
|
Agriculture/ Farming
Business
Service
Others
|
49(53.8%)
61(45.9%)
34(35.4%)
15(25.9%)
|
42(46.2%)
72(54.1%)
62(64.6%)
43(74.1%)
|
χ2 = 13.960, df = 3, sig = 0.003**
|
V = 0.192
|
Household Ownership
|
Yes
No
|
158(43.10%)
1(9.10%)
|
209(56.90%)
10(90.90%)
|
χ2 = 5.054, df = 1, sig = 0.025**
|
φ = 0.116
|
Household Type
|
Pucca
Semi-Pucca
Katcha
Wooden House
|
3(6.3%)
30(21.4%)
102(63%)
24(85.7%)
|
45(93.8%)
110(78.6%)
60(37%)
4(14.3%)
|
χ2 = 100.651, df = 3, sig = 0.001**
|
V = 0.516
|
Vehicle Ownership
|
Yes
No
|
39(34.8%)
120(45.1)
|
73(65.2%)
146(54.9%)
|
χ2 = 3.425, df = 1, sig = 0.064
|
φ =-0.095
|
COVID Awareness
|
Yes
No
|
123(45.2%)
36(34%)
|
149(54.8%)
70(66.0%)
|
χ2 = 3.967, df = 1, sig = 0.04**
|
φ = 0.102
|
Cattle Ownership
|
Yes
No
|
124(48.1%)
35(29.2%)
|
134(51.9%)
85(70.8%)
|
χ2 = 11.999, df = 1, sig = 0.001**
|
φ = 0.178
|
Land Ownership
|
Yes
No
|
152(45.8%)
7(15.2%)
|
180(54.2%)
39(84.8%)
|
χ2 = 15.489, df = 1, sig = 0.001**
|
φ = 0.202
|
Child Below 6 years
|
Yes
No
|
51(40.5%)
108(42.9%)
|
75(59.5%)
144(57.1%)
|
χ2 = 0.195, df = 1, sig = 0.658
|
φ =-0.23
|
Old (60+)
|
Yes
No
|
65(31.7%)
94(54.3%
|
140(68.3%)
79(45.7%)
|
χ2 = 19.712, df = 1, sig = 0.001**
|
φ = -0.228
|
Previous Cyclone Experience
|
Yes
No
|
158(43.2%)
1(8.3%)
|
208(56.8%)
11(91.7%)
|
χ2 = 5.786, df = 1, sig = 0.016**
|
φ = 0124
|
Previous Strom Surge Experience
|
Yes
No
|
150(80.6%)
9(4.7%)
|
36(19.4%)
183(95.4%)
|
χ2 = 223.670, df = 1, sig = 0.001**
|
φ = 0.769
|
Year of living
|
Less than 5 Year
5 Year to 10 Year
10 year to 15 year
15 Year to 20 Year
More than 20 year
|
0(0%)
1(33.3%)
0(0%)
1(4.5%)
157(45.9%)
|
4(100%)
2(66.7%)
7(100%)
21(95.5%)
185(54.1%)
|
χ2 = 22.860, df = 4, sig = 0.001**
|
V = 0.246
|
Income
|
< 5000 BDT
5000–10000 BDT
10000 to 20000 BDT
20000 to 30000 BDT
|
0(0%)
54(42.9%)
105(43.4%)
0(0%)
|
3(100%)
72(57.1%)
137(56.6%)
7(100%)
|
χ2 = 7.467, df = 3, sig = 0.058
|
V = 0.141
|
Note: N = 378, Significant variables are marked with (**)
|
*Note: Results of some indicators such as age, gender, education, religion, and income are also presented in Alam and Chakraborty (2021). |
Real and Expected Evacuation Order Scenario
The evacuation order is the final stage of early warning granted by the BMD at least 10 hours prior to the cyclone landfalls (Parvin et al. 2019). In this study, respondents have been asked to explain the evacuation procedures from the order to take shelter in the centers. Analysis (Fig. 4 for details) depicts that 96.6% of the respondent in Satkhira district has received evacuation order, which supports the previous findings of Ahsan et al. (2016). Figure 4 shows that 56.6% of respondents has received evacuation order in 3 to 6 hours, and 27.5% of respondents received the order 3 hours before landfalls.
Furthermore, it is evident from the findings that more than half of the respondents (63.8%) prefer to get the evacuation order within 6 to 12 hours before the cyclone landfalls (Fig. 4). Also, 31.5% of the respondents prefer receiving the evacuation order within 3 to 6 hours before the landfall.
Sources of Evacuation Order
Cyclone warning and evacuation orders from the government usually reached to the people through multiple sources including: government officials, media, and community volunteers (Walch 2018). We found that friends, relatives, and neighbors (61.9%) were the leading source of receiving evacuation orders during cyclone Amphan followed by mosques (55.37%), social media (46.05%), and television (37.85%) (Fig. 5 for details). Interestingly, some respondents reported that electricity outage and mobile network issues hindered receiving information through television, mobile phone, and internet. Thus, they relied on evacuation orders obtained from mosques and social connections.
Trustworthiness of the Evacuation Order Source
Based on Henry Garrett method (Eq. 1), this study ranks the trustworthiness of the evacuation order sources (Table 3), received from: mosques, television, newspaper, CPP volunteers and friends, relative, and neighbors than other sources. Consequently, we have included the reasons behind the mistrust in the source of evacuation order through open-ended questions and categorized the responses based on the content (Fig. 6 for details). From the response, it is evident that failure of warning system in the previous cyclone is the leading cause behind the mistrust. Inaccurate, exaggerated, risk unspecific, and misleading warning in the previous cyclone is the major reason that works as the ‘Crying Wolf Syndrome’ among the coastal communities. Due to the inefficiency of experts and authorities (41.3%) and enormous corruption (39.4%), people have lost their confidence in respecting evacuation orders. Some respondents (32.3%) have complained about the political polarization of the community organizations, institutions, and media, which reduced the social acceptance of those organizations. Moreover, yellow journalism in electronic/print media (29.1%) and spreading rumor through unmonitored social media (27.8%) have worked as a catalyst in reducing public trusts.
Table 3
Ranking the trustworthiness of evacuation order and receiving sources.
Sources
|
High Trust (5)
|
Moderate Trust (4)
|
Neutral
(3)
|
Low Trust (2)
|
No Trust (1)
|
Total
|
A*N
|
Score
|
Rank
|
Radio
|
465
|
540
|
435
|
10
|
0
|
1450
|
1890
|
0.77
|
6
|
TV
|
835
|
532
|
234
|
0
|
0
|
1601
|
1890
|
0.85
|
2
|
Newspaper
|
790
|
532
|
261
|
0
|
0
|
1583
|
1890
|
0.84
|
3
|
Mosque
|
850
|
684
|
111
|
0
|
0
|
1645
|
1890
|
0.87
|
1
|
Social Media
|
450
|
524
|
447
|
16
|
0
|
1437
|
1890
|
0.76
|
7
|
Siren & Miking
|
330
|
404
|
513
|
58
|
11
|
1316
|
1890
|
0.70
|
9
|
Friends/Relative
|
310
|
920
|
258
|
0
|
0
|
1488
|
1890
|
0.79
|
5
|
NGO/CBO
|
280
|
552
|
477
|
28
|
11
|
1348
|
1890
|
0.71
|
8
|
CPP Volunteers
|
165
|
1316
|
48
|
0
|
0
|
1529
|
1890
|
0.81
|
4
|
Preparation Time for Evacuation
Though evacuation order was provided at least 10 hours before the landfall, we observed that people received it about 3 to 6 hours before cyclone Amphan struck. Therefore, people received less time to evacuate. People started to leave their houses at the last moment when the weather condition turned to the worst. Interestingly, we found that all the respondents who complied with the evacuation order had left home around 0–2 hours before the landfall. Few of them left home when the storm was in place and precipitation already started that triggered flash flood. Moreover, the average preparation time of men was 108 minutes (SD = 32), whereas women required 143 min (SD = 43) to evacuate on an average. Interestingly, we found that women required more evacuation time as they were responsible for the safety of the family members such as children and elderly, household chores, assets, and belongings, including cattle and other livestock. In few cases, women prepared food and collected necessary stuffs to bring along to the evacuation centers. Additionally, it was evident that 77.4% of respondents of total evacuee were aware of the COVID-19 risks, and therefore, they brought the COVID-19 safety kits such as face mask, hand sanitizer, and hand soap in the cyclone shelter for their safety. Note that, collecting the COVID-19 safety kits took few extra minutes to delay evacuation procedures.
Evacuation Destinations
Based on the investigation, we identified that 42.06% of respondents were evacuated to a safe place during cyclone Amphan. According to Table 5, 50.9% of total evacuees chose cyclone shelter as their evacuation destination (Table 4). Approximately 40% of the evacuee women took shelter in their neighbor’s or relative’s house during cyclone Amphan. We found that Shaymnagar and Asasuni Upazila (i.e., closest to the Bay of Bengal), had the highest evacuation rate, whereas no one left their houses in Kalaroa Upazila.
Table 4
, Evacuation destinations of local people during cyclone Amphan.
|
Cyclone Shelter
|
Neighbors/Relative House
|
School Building
|
NGO Office
|
N
|
%
|
N
|
%
|
N
|
%
|
N
|
%
|
Male
|
55
|
51.40%
|
14
|
13.10%
|
19
|
17.80%
|
19
|
17.80%
|
Female
|
26
|
50.00%
|
21
|
40.40%
|
5
|
9.60%
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Total
|
81
|
50.9%
|
35
|
22%
|
24
|
15.1%
|
19
|
11.9%
|
Table 5
, Evacuation scenarios of different Upazilas during cyclone Amphan
Upazila Name
|
Evacuation (%)
|
Cyclone Shelter
|
Relative/Neighbors House
|
School Building
|
NGO Office
|
Kalaroa
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Tala
|
9.26%
|
20.00%
|
60.00%
|
0.00%
|
20.00%
|
Shaymnagar
|
91.74%
|
63.22%
|
14.29%
|
12.29%
|
10.20%
|
Kaliganj
|
48.15%
|
38.46%
|
26.92%
|
19.23%
|
15.38%
|
Asasuni
|
90.74%
|
61.22%
|
14.29%
|
14.29%
|
10.20%
|
Debhata
|
48.15%
|
38.46%
|
26.92%
|
19.23%
|
15.38%
|
Satkhira Sadar
|
7.41%
|
0.00%
|
100.00%
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Modal Choice during Evacuation
Figure 7 shows that most of the evacuees have reached to the shelter on foot (40.3%) and leg-pulling van (37%). On the contrary, most of the evacuee returned home by walking (62.9%) and by boat (16.4%) after the cyclone. Note that, the flash flood inundated several areas and evacuees used boats to return home.
Availability of COVID-19 Facilities for Evacuees
This study explored whether there were availability of COVID-19 protection facilities in the shelters. About 92.6% of the respondent mentioned that there were no facilities for Covid-19 kits, and only 7.14% reported partial availability. Interestingly, Covid-19 facilities included with the availability of hand washing soaps and sinks. We found that men and women took shelter in different rooms; however, social distancing, facial masks, and hand sanitizers were absent. Furthermore. evacuees took shelters in the neighbors, friends or relative’s house had better COVID-19 protection facilities.
Table 6
, Availability of COVID-19 protection facilities in the cyclone shelters.
|
COVID-19 Facility Availability
|
Yes
|
No
|
Partially Available
|
N
|
%
|
N
|
%
|
N
|
%
|
Cyclone Shelter
|
0
|
0.00%
|
75
|
92.59%
|
6
|
7.41%
|
Neighbors/Relative House
|
5
|
14.29%
|
26
|
74.29%
|
4
|
11.43%
|
School Building
|
0
|
0.00%
|
12
|
50.00%
|
12
|
50.00%
|
NGO Office
|
0
|
0.00%
|
19
|
100.00%
|
0
|
0.00%
|
Reasons for Non-Evacuating during Cyclone Amphan
Approximately 96.6% respondents received evacuation orders but many of them failed to evacuate themselves. Haque (1995) reported only 22.8% evacuation in cyclone Gorky, Paul (2014) identified 41.4% evacuation in cyclone Sidr, and Parvin et al. (2019) found 84% evacuation during cyclone Aila in coastal areas of Bangladesh. It signified an improvement in evacuation rate over the time. However, during cyclone Amphan, this study found that only 42.06% people were evacuated to a safer place.
Overcrowding in cyclone shelters was one of the prominent causes of not evacuating. Due to COVID-19 risk, where social distancing was highly encouraged, some respondents viewed the crowded cyclone shelter as riskier, and thus, they decided to stay at home, and few returned from the shelters after noticing the crowd. Unavailability of cyclone shelter in the locality, and longer distances to travel were also responsible for non-compliance to the evacuation order for 21.92% and 23.74% respectively. According to the Cyclone Shelter Construction, Maintenance and Management Policy-2011 of Bangladesh, cyclone shelters should be located within 1.5 km distance to allow quick evacuation during a hazard (Hossain and Rahman 2018; Hossain et al. 2014). A cyclone shelters buffer zone of 1.5 km reported that most of the areas in Kalaroa (0%) and Tala Upazila (4.22%) were unserved. Additionally, more than three-fourth area of other Upazilas, including Assasuni, Debhata, Kaligaj, Satkhira Sadar, and Shaymnagar had limited access to cyclone shelters (see Fig. 8 for details). Moreover, capacity of the existing cyclone shelters was not adequate to serve the population. According to the analysis, except for Shyamnagar Upazila, cyclone shelters did not have the capacity to accommodate at least 5 percent of the total population of the respective areas.
Table 7
, Cyclone shelters’ capacity and service area in Satkhira district. Data obtained from multiple sources including district gazette book, and census.
Upazila Name
|
Total Area
|
Total Population
|
Number of Cyclone Shelter
|
Capacity of Cyclone Shelters
|
Served Area
(1.5 km buffer)
|
Area Served (%)
|
% of Population Served
|
Assasuni
|
378.05
|
268754
|
8
|
4750
|
52.39
|
13.86
|
1.77
|
Debhata
|
175.34
|
125358
|
6
|
6125
|
41.62
|
23.74
|
4.89
|
Kalaroa
|
232.82
|
237992
|
0
|
0
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
Kaliganj
|
326.10
|
274889
|
11
|
9390
|
77.64
|
23.81
|
3.42
|
Satkhira
|
397.75
|
460892
|
14
|
14271
|
98.53
|
24.77
|
3.10
|
Shyamnagar
|
1543.43
|
318254
|
39
|
31875
|
265.77
|
17.22
|
10.02
|
Tala
|
334.87
|
299820
|
2
|
1300
|
14.12
|
4.22
|
0.43
|
Experience on the failure of warning (35.16%) and disbelief in warning system (27.85%) were the leading reasons of influencing the evacuation decision of respondents. Some respondents mentioned that the failure of warning during Sidr (2007) and Aila (2009) encouraged them not to evacuate. The other warning-related non-evacuation reasons were lack of understanding of cyclone warnings (27.4%), sudden change of warning signals (16.89%), and delay in receiving warning (14.61%). During cyclone Amphan, 9.13% of the non-evacuee respondent reported that they did not hear any evacuation warning at all.
In this study, 37.90% of the non-evacuee respondents reported poor/muddy road conditions as the reason for non-evacuation during cyclone Amphan. Additionally, nation-wide lockdown had an impact for not having access to vehicles to evacuate during the event. Moreover, this study reported that heavy rainfall just before the landfall shattered the electricity network. Thus, people had to struggle to receive updated information from the evacuation orders. Therefore, unlike previous cyclones, some of the respondents could not evacuate due to electricity blackouts (18.72%) and mobile network problems (10.96%) during Amphan. About 48 percent of all non-evacuee did not comply with the evacuation order as they could not abandon their cattle. Approximately 24.2% cases, people could not leave for shelter due to the difficulties of carrying the elderly and children to and from the cyclone shelters.
We identified from the analysis that the respondents who had no storm surge experience previously, were less likely to evacuate during a cyclone. Respondents who lived in at least structured or semi-structured houses in a low storm-surge risk areas mostly chose to stay at home during Amphan. Therefore, 68% of all non-evacuee didn’t comply with the order as they felt safe at their own house (Table 8 for details). Also, few women did not evacuate as the household head (i.e., usually men) were not at home during the event. Note that, many household heads in Kaliganj Upazila had moved to big cities in search of livelihoods. In Boddipur village in Kalaroa Upazila, many people left for foreign countries, mostly in Malaysia, India, or Middle Eastern countries. Due to the absence of the household heads at home, women did not want to evacuate in cyclone shelters during Amphan for social and cultural reasons.
Approximately 34.25% of all non-evacuees reported that they were aware of the warning but could not envisage the danger of the impending event, and therefore, they assumed it would not affect their area. About 41.55% of all non-evacuee respondents indicated that they did not leave their homes because they feared that their homes/business, place/fish cultivation pond might be looted. Nearly 14.61% non-evacuee did not go to shelter thinking of challenges of returning after cyclone such as road blockade, waterlogging, transport unavailability, etc. About 11.67%respondents perceived that cyclone was ‘God’s will’ and therefore did not evacuate during Amphan. These people believed their fate is prefixed by God, and thus, it was irrelevant if anyone stayed at home or evacuated to a shelter since their survival depended on God’s will.
Considering the risk of COVID-19 infection from the crowded cyclone shelter, 26% of all non-evacuee dared to stay home during Amphan. As soon as the storm became stronger and the flood protection embankments became fragile, some community volunteers attempted to protect the embankments during the cyclone. This study identified about 5.5% of all non-evacuee could not go to cyclone shelters due to their voluntary involvements in embankment protection.
Table 8
, Reasons for non-evacuee during cyclone Amphan
Reasons(n = 219)
|
%
|
N
|
Cyclone Shelter Related Problems
|
Overcrowded cyclone shelter
|
26.94%
|
59
|
Long distance from cyclone shelter
|
23.74%
|
52
|
Unavailability cyclone shelter
|
21.92%
|
48
|
Cyclone Warning Related Issue
|
Past experience of failure of warning
|
35.16%
|
77
|
Disbelief in waring system
|
27.85%
|
61
|
Lack of understanding cyclone warning
|
27.40%
|
60
|
Sudden change warning signal
|
16.89%
|
37
|
The warning was too late
|
14.61%
|
32
|
Didn’t get any warning
|
9.13%
|
20
|
Transportation and Communication Problem
|
Poor/muddy road network
|
37.90%
|
83
|
No transport availability
|
23.30%
|
51
|
Electricity blackout
|
18.72%
|
41
|
Couldn’t communicate due to mobile network down
|
10.96%
|
24
|
Couldn’t Bring the Child/ Elder member
|
24.20%
|
53
|
Could not Leave the Cattle
|
48.40%
|
106
|
Social, Cultural and Perception Related Reason
|
Felt safe at home
|
68.04%
|
149
|
No previous storm surge experience
|
49.32%
|
108
|
Fear of burglary
|
41.55%
|
91
|
Cyclone in this season would not severe
|
34.25%
|
75
|
Male member outside home
|
21.00%
|
46
|
Cyclone occurred at night
|
15.07%
|
33
|
The shelter filled with male person
|
17.81%
|
39
|
Returning issue after cyclone
|
14.61%
|
32
|
Gods will
|
11.87%
|
26
|
Other Reason
|
COVID Outbreak
|
26.03%
|
57
|
Involved in Embankment Protection Work
|
5.48%
|
12
|