Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China



Background:Cerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in China, and the China is undergoing rapid change.However, trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality remains unclear in urban-rural China.

Methods:Mortality of cerebrovascular disease (2005-2019) were collected for quinquennial age group stratified by area(urban/rural) from China Statistical Yearbook.The annual changes(APC) and the average annual percent changes(AAPC) of cerebrovascular disease mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis;age,period,cohort effects on mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort model.

Results:Though 2005-2019,standardized mortality significantly rose in rural areas(AAPC=3.3%,95%CI:1%,5.6%) and moderately increased in urban areas(AAPC=1.5%,95%CI:0.6%,2.4%).The age-period-cohort model indicated that there was an obviously age effect and cohort effect..The trend of age effect showed an increase with advancing age.There is a favourable throughout in cohort effects with significantly decrease of both rural and urban areas in China.

Conclusions:Both urban areas and rural areas of China,the trend of cerebrovascular disease mortality substantially increased with advance of age.Cerebrovascular disease mortality trend may continue to rise in China.Respectively intervention should be conducted, especially for rural areas.Moreover,paying attention to the physical and mental health of the elderly is also unavoidable.

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