Climate Driven phenological changes pose substantial ecological consequences (Parmesan 2006), with implications for individual fitness, population persistence, species conservation, and community structure (Miller-Rushing et. al. 2010, Diamond et al. 2011; Hill et al. 2021). Responses ar far from uniform (Macgragor et al. 2019), and can vary in magnitude and direction even in species experiencing similar environmental conditions (Macgragor et al. 2019; Hill et al. 2021). Due to their extreme diet specialization, plan-herbivore interactions are particularly vulnerable to climate-driven phenological and ontogenetic changes. Phenological decoupling with hosts (Stireman et al. 2005; Memmott et al. 2007), and ontogenetic effects, such as those mediated by changes in body size, that limit dispersal and fecundity, are factors that can limit viable population sizes if these interactions are not realized in space and time.
Insects, including butterflies, have been proposed as informative organisms for testing climate impacts on ecological communities, because they show rapid responses to changes in the environment given their short generation times and their particular ecological requirements (Hill et al. 2021). Despite the bulk of evidence showing that insects are rapidly disappearing rapidly due to climate change (Stireman et al. 2005; Diamond et al. 2011; Hill et al. 2021), there is still a need for more studies to investigate which life history traits co-vary with temporal-related traits, in order to enable us to make better predictions about species response in the face of environmental change (Pavoine et al. 2014; Spaniol et. al. 2019). This is particularly relevant for species inhabiting environments with a marked seasonality, such as the Brazilian Cerrado (Stevens et al. 2012; Fountain-Jones et al. 2015).
The Cerrado is the second largest biome in South America and the most biodiverse savannah in the world (Silva & Bates 2002; Klink & Machado 2005). It covers a wide latitudinal and environmental gradient and is composed of a mosaic of plant formations from open grasslands (7%) to dense forests (32%), while most of its area (61%) is typically woodland savannah (Marquis et al. 2002). The Cerrado has well-defined dry and rainy seasons, with an average rainfall around 1,400 to 1,500 mm per year, which is 80% distributed between October to March (Silva et al. 2008). The dry season (May to September) is severe and impose important constraints on the persistence of animal communities (Marquis et al. 2002). Seasonal changes in temperature and water availability from the dry to the wet season, triggers primary production promoting intense leaf production and greater availability of ripe fruits, which are essential for immature and adult butterflies, respectively (Morellato et al. 2000; Ribeiro et al. 2010). In addition, the water availability may directly affect the occurrence of these butterflies (Brito, et al. 2021). This, it is especially important to understand the relationship between weather conditions and butterfly survival as Cerrado high deforestation rate is leading to a change in climate, which is generally becoming hotter and drier (Hoffman et al. 2021). These changes can have severe consequences for the survival and persistence of different butterfly species inhabiting the landscape, since some species can be negatively affected by dry conditions (Freire-Jr et al. 2014).
Rainfall is the main predictor of insect emergence in the Tropics, with the onset and cessation of rains playing an important role in the regulation of insect activity pulse (Wolda 1988). Consequently, air temperature and humidity are generally positively associated with the abundance and species richness of insect communities, with examples from ant (Dáttilo & Vasconcelos, 2019) and butterfly species (Brown Jr. 1992; Ribeiro et al. 2010; Freire-Jr & Diniz 2015; Lourenço et al. 2019). However, this relationship might be more complex than previously understood. Although seasonality explains the temporal dynamics of fruit-feeding butterflies (nymphalids) in the Cerrado, subfamilies with varying body sizes differ in their temporal distribution (Ribeiro & Freitas 2011; Freire Jr. & Diniz 2015), indicating that body size therefore may contribute to the temporal dynamics of these butterflies.
The yearly temporal distribution of small-bodied fruit-feeding butterflies tends to be longer than their larger relatives (Ribeiro & Freitas 2011). One possible explanation is that the higher energetic demand of larger species constrains them to occur in a narrow time period when optimal resources are available (Brown et al. 2004; Ribeiro & Freitas 2011). Moreover, small-bodied species tend to have shorter lifespans, despite their wider temporal distribution, greater abundances, and narrower larval diet breadths (Hjalmarsson et al. 2015; Freire-Jr. et al. 2021.a; Sudta et al. 2022). Although the association between diet breadth and temporal distribution is poorly understood in butterflies, our expectation is that the temporal distribution of smaller and more specialized butterfly species will be less restricted throughout the year compared to their larger relatives (Pozo et al. 2008; Ribeiro & Freitas 2011; Freire Jr. & Diniz 2015).
Nonetheless, trait-environmental relationships may not be exclusively explained by present-day ecological processes but can also reflect the evolutionary history shared by species in ecological communities (Pavoine et al. 2014; Duarte et al. 2018). Thus, phylogenetic information, especially when combined with both ecological and functional methods, is essential for a more accurate understanding about community assembly (Spaniol et al. 2019). However, the strength of phylogenetic signal remains underused in studies attempting to uncover the influence of body size on temporal dynamics (Ribeiro & Freitas 2011; Spaniol et al. 2019; Freire-Jr et al. 2021a) for most insect populations, particularly in the Cerrado, where temporal dynamics are an important part of the ecological dynamics that influence different animal species (Silva et al., 2011; Freire Jr. & Diniz, 2015).
Fruit-feeding butterflies (Nymphalidae) use rotting fruit as an important food resource. They comprise about 50-75% of all Neotropical species richness in this family (DeVries et al. 1999; Brown Jr., 2005), are easily sampled with a standardized trap protocol (Uehara-Prado et al. 2007; Freitas et al. 2014), and respond consistently to environmental changes in space and time (Ribeiro et al. 2010; DeVries et al. 2016). Therefore, fruit-feeding butterflies are frequently used as models in environmental studies and biodiversity monitoring plans (see GEOBON, GBIF).
Here we evaluated factors that influence the temporal patterns of abundance (hereafter, seasonality of abundance) of fruit-feeding butterflies as well as other natural history traits while considering their evolutionary histories, and addressing two ecological questions:
1) What are the seasonal patterns of abundance and richness and how do these patterns vary with climate and habitat? We expect a positive influence of temperature and humidity on both species abundance and richness of these butterflies (Ribeiro et al. 2010; Lourenço et al. 2019), which is tightly associated with the phenology of adult food resources (ripe fruit) in the Cerrado (Batalha & Mantovani 2000; Guarino & Walter 2005; Silva–Jr. & Sarmento 2009).
2) Among butterflies in the Cerrado, is the seasonality of abundance, diet breadth and host plant synchrony associated with important life history traits such as body size? Since body size is strongly related to species metabolism, we expect larger butterflies to occur in a narrower temporal window compared to their smaller relatives. Moreover, since body size and diet breadth are phylogenetically conserved (Spaniol et al. 2019, Freire-Jr. et al. 2021.a), we expect an indirect effect of phylogeny on the temporal distribution of these butterflies. Therefore, we expect the occurrence of larger, more generalist, and more seasonal butterflies to be more synchronized with the optimum food resources period than their smaller relatives.