Background: To establish a novel coronavirus-infection transmission process model in Wuhan, and to provide a decision support for epidemic prediction and prevention.
Methods: SIR model for novel coronavirus-infection transmission process was built based on the data of the infected persons, discharged patients and discharged patients during the period of isolation and control in Wuhan. Least squares estimation method was used to estimate the key parameters of the model.
Results: The changing trend of the predicted value of SIR model was basically consistent with the actual value, and fitting effect was well. Based on the prediction results of model, future development trend of the epidemic showed that the inflection point of the epidemic was the 38th day, namely at the end of February, the peak number of infected persons was about 22000 (excluding clinical diagnosis cases); Different infection intensity and removal intensity had an impact on the development of the epidemic.
Conclusion: The SIR model for novel coronavirus-infection transmission process in Wuhan has high veracity. Through the prediction and application of the model, it can provide guidance and advice for the actual epidemic prevention and control, and take effective measures to control the epidemic situation in time.