Demographic and clinical characteristics
A total of 93,491 breast cancer survivors in the SEER cohort who met the eligibility criteria were included in this analysis. Table 1 details the number and proportion of young breast cancer survivors by demographic (age, race/ethnicity, year of diagnosis) and clinical factors (stage at diagnosis, histologic grade, breast cancer subtype, T category, and N category).
Table 1
Characteristics of cases in SEER registries diagnosed with breast cancer from 2000 to 2017
Cohort
|
20-24 years
No. (%)
|
25-29 years
No. (%)
|
30-34 years
No. (%)
|
35-39 years
No. (%)
|
40-44 years
No. (%)
|
Total
|
P value
|
Total
|
570 (0.61)
|
3,386 (3.62)
|
10,975 (11.74)
|
25,331 (27.09)
|
53,229 (56.93)
|
93,491 (100)
|
|
Race and origin
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Non-Hispanic White
|
277 (0.51)
|
1,691 (3.11)
|
5,829 (10.73)
|
14,297 (26.32)
|
32,233 (59.33)
|
54,327 (100)
|
|
Non-Hispanic Black
|
120 (0.94)
|
616 (4.81)
|
1,777 (13.88)
|
3,573 (27.91)
|
6,714 (52.45)
|
12,800 (100)
|
|
Non-Hispanic American
Indian/Alaska Native
|
3 (0.50)
|
29 (4.82)
|
71(11.79)
|
179 (29.73)
|
320 (53.16)
|
602 (100)
|
|
Non-Hispanic Asian or
Pacific Islander
|
51 (0.51)
|
337 (3.34)
|
1,189 (11.79)
|
2,803 (27.79)
|
5,707 (56.58)
|
10,087 (100)
|
|
Hispanic (All races)
|
117 (0.76)
|
698 (4.56)
|
2,062 (13.47)
|
4,378 (28.61)
|
8,050 (52.60)
|
15,305 (100)
|
|
Non-Hispanic Unknown
Race
|
2 (0.54)
|
15 (4.05)
|
47 (12.70)
|
101 (27.30)
|
205 (55.41)
|
370 (100)
|
|
Stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Stage 1
|
147 (0.46)
|
758 (2.38)
|
2,755 (8.64)
|
7,480 (23.45)
|
20,751 (65.07)
|
31,891 (100)
|
|
Stage 2
|
257 (0.63)
|
1,649 (4.02)
|
5,237 (12.78)
|
11,662 (28.46)
|
22,176 (54.11)
|
40,981 (100)
|
|
Stage 3
|
113 (0.67)
|
766 (4.57)
|
2,346 (13.99)
|
5,012 (29.89)
|
8,350 (50.87)
|
16,767 (100)
|
|
Stage 4
|
53 (1.38)
|
213 (5.53)
|
637 (16.54)
|
1,177 (30.56)
|
1,772 (46.00)
|
3,852 (100)
|
|
T stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
1
|
209 (0.46)
|
1,186 (2.63)
|
4,247 (9.41)
|
11,105 (24.62)
|
28,364 (62.88)
|
45,111 (100)
|
|
2
|
218 (0.64)
|
1,414 (4.17)
|
4,544 (13.39)
|
9,851 (29.02)
|
17,918 (52.79)
|
33,945 (100)
|
|
3
|
64 (0.86)
|
405 (5.45)
|
1,069 (14.37)
|
2,226 (29.93)
|
3,674 (49.39)
|
7,438 (100)
|
|
4
|
25 (0.88)
|
151 (5.34)
|
444 (15.71)
|
872 (30.85)
|
1,335 (47.22)
|
2,827 (100)
|
|
N stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
0
|
280 (0.56)
|
1,604 (3.18)
|
5,263 (10.45)
|
12,754 (25.31)
|
30,486 (60.50)
|
50,387 (100)
|
|
1
|
190 (0.66)
|
1,163 (4.01)
|
3,730 (12.88)
|
8,317 (28.71)
|
15,569 (53.74)
|
28,969 (100)
|
|
2
|
48 (0.58)
|
334 (4.02)
|
1,136 (13.67)
|
2,458 (29.59)
|
4,332 (52.14)
|
8,308 (100)
|
|
3
|
48 (0.89)
|
271 (5.05)
|
772 (14.39)
|
1,664 (31.02)
|
2,609 (48.64)
|
5,364 (100)
|
|
Breast Subtype (2010+)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Her2+/HR+
|
56 (1.02)
|
311 (5.64)
|
811 (14.70)
|
1,611 (29.21)
|
2,727 (49.44)
|
5,516 (100)
|
|
Her2+/HR-
|
28 (1.36)
|
96 (4.65)
|
325 (15.74)
|
636 (30.80)
|
980 (47.46)
|
2,065 (100)
|
|
Her2-/HR+
|
108 (0.52)
|
693 (3.31)
|
2,216 (10.58)
|
5,148 (24.57)
|
12,786 (61.03)
|
20,951 (100)
|
|
Triple Negative
|
37 (0.65)
|
347 (6.11)
|
918 (16.17)
|
1,657 (29.18)
|
2,719 (47.89)
|
5,678 (100)
|
|
Histologic Grade
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
Well differentiated
|
36 (0.32)
|
184 (1.65)
|
688 (6.19)
|
2,274 (20.45)
|
7,939 (71.39)
|
11,121 (100)
|
|
Moderate differentiated
|
166 (0.48)
|
968 (2.78)
|
3,403 (9.78)
|
8,884 (25.52)
|
25,385 (61.44)
|
34,806 (100)
|
|
Poorly differentiated
|
368 (0.77)
|
2,234 (4.70)
|
6,884 (14.47)
|
14,173 (29.80)
|
23,905 (50.26)
|
47,564 (100)
|
|
Year of diagnosis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
< 0.001
|
2000-2008 (9 years)
|
289 (0.56)
|
1,655 (3.20)
|
5,854 (11.32)
|
14,260 (27.57)
|
29,666 (57.35)
|
51,724 (100)
|
|
2009-2017 (9 years)
|
281 (0.67)
|
1,731 (4.14)
|
5,121 (12.26)
|
11,071 (26.51)
|
23,563 (56.42)
|
41,767 (100)
|
|
Compared to data from 2000 to 2008 (9 years), data from 2009 to 2017 (9 years) showed a greater percentage of patients aged 20 to 34 years (15.08% vs 17.07%). In addition, from 2000 to 2017, the incidence of breast cancer differed significantly according to race/ethnicity (p<.0001). To be specific, among the five racial/ethnic subgroups, NHB accounted for the highest proportion of breast cancer patients under 40 years old (e.g., NHB=48% vs NHW=41%) (see Figure 1). Breast cancer subtype also differed significantly by race/ethnicity, and the NHB subgroup showed the highest percentage of the triple-negative subtype (e.g., 25% in NHB vs 15% in NHW) (see Figure 2). Across all racial/ethnic categories, the highest percentages of patients showed stage 2 (n=40,981, 43.83%), T1 stage (n=45,111, 50.50%), and N0 stage (n=50,387, 54.16%). Survival month values for the cancer-related death group (n=15,131) showed that the oldest age group had the most survival months (e.g., 40-44 years=55 months vs 20-24 years=50 months).
Survival curves
Kaplan-Meier survival curves corresponding to the period of 2000–2017 for five characteristics are shown in Figure 3. The oldest breast cancer subgroup in our cohort (aged 40-44 years) had the longest survival probabilities, while the youngest subgroup (aged 20-24 years) showed the shortest probabilities.
NHB had the lowest survival probabilities for all years. In addition, triple-negative subtype was associated with the lowest survival probabilities. Those who had the highest cancer stage and highest histologic grade also had the lowest survival probabilities. All log-rank comparisons of Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all five variables were significant (p<0.0001).
Cox proportional hazard models
Table 2 presents the results of Cox multivariate regression analysis for cancer-specific survival in young breast cancer survivors.
Table 2
Cox regression analysis of cancer-specific survival among young breast cancer females
Variables
|
HR
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Age, yr (reference: 20-24 yr)
|
|
|
|
25-29
|
0.919
|
0.652
|
1.294
|
0.627
|
30-34
|
0.887
|
0.640
|
1.228
|
0.469
|
35-39
|
0.883
|
0.641
|
1.217
|
0.448
|
40-44
|
0.802
|
0.583
|
1.103
|
0.175
|
Race and Ethnicity (reference: Non-Hispanic White)
|
|
|
|
|
Non-Hispanic Black
|
1.565
|
1.436
|
1.705
|
<0.001
|
Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander
|
0.920
|
0.811
|
1.044
|
0.198
|
Hispanic
|
1.294
|
1.183
|
1.416
|
<0.001
|
Breast cancer subtype (reference: Her2+/HR+)
|
|
|
|
|
Her2+/HR-
|
1.576
|
1.338
|
1.856
|
<0.001
|
Her2-/HR+
|
1.932
|
1.718
|
2.173
|
<0.001
|
Triple-negative
|
4.438
|
3.923
|
5.022
|
<0.001
|
Cancer stage (reference: stage 1)
|
|
|
|
|
Stage 2
|
2.555
|
2.211
|
2.952
|
<0.001
|
Stage 3
|
8.602
|
7.453
|
9.929
|
<0.001
|
Stage 4
|
40.764
|
35.127
|
47.305
|
<0.001
|
Histologic grade (reference: Well differentiated)
|
|
|
|
|
Moderate differentiated
|
1.799
|
1.457
|
2.221
|
<0.001
|
Poorly differentiated
|
2.939
|
2.385
|
3.620
|
<0.001
|
In the Cox multivariate proportional hazard models, race/ethnicity, breast cancer subtype, stage, and histologic grade were significant predictors of cancer-specific survival (LR chi2 (15) = 5418.78, p<0.001). The highest risk of death was found in the cancer stage 4 subgroup (HR = 40.764, 95% CI = 35.127 to 47.305), tumor subtype of triple-negative (HR = 4.438, 95% CI = 3.923 to 5.022), and race/ethnicity NHB (HR = 1.565, 95% CI = 1.436 to 1.705). To determine the violation of proportionality assumption in Cox regression model, the proportionality test was applied. The proportionality test for cancer-specific survival was significant (chi2 (15) =307.51, p<.001). Among the predictors, breast cancer subtype, cancer stage, and tumor grade significantly violated the proportionality assumption.
Interaction effects in Cox proportional hazard models
We tested the pre-specified interaction effects between variables in Cox proportional hazard models. We used predictive margins and marginal effects analysis in Cox regression as shown in Table 3. This table also shows predicted HR and p values according to race/ethnicity and breast cancer subtype as well as according to race/ethnicity and cancer stage. With respect to breast cancer subtype, an interaction effect was found with race/ethnicity. NHB showed significantly higher predicted HR values for breast cancer-specific survival compared to NHW, regardless of breast cancer subtype, and all values were significant. The highest predicted HR was seen in NHB with Her2-/HR+ subtype (HR = 16.599, p<.001) compared to NHW with Her2-/HR+ (reference group). NHB had significantly higher HR for all other subtypes compared to NHW with the same subtype (reference group): HER2+/HR+ (HR = 11.910, p=.002), HER2+/HR- (HR: =11.725, p=.013), and triple-negative (HR = 11.238, p=.026). With regard to cancer stage, interaction effects with race/ethnicity showed significantly higher predicted HR values among NHB compared to NHW with the same stage, and all values were significant. The higher the stage, the higher the predicted HR (Stage 1 HR = 5.130, p=0.005 vs Stage 4 HR = 95.890, p=0.001).
Table 3
Marginal effects of race/ethnic groups and breast cancer subtype/cancer stage on survival probability (Interaction effects)
Breast cancer subtype
|
Race/ethnic group
(Reference: NHW)
|
Predicted HR
|
SE
|
z
|
95% CI
|
P value
|
Her2+/HR+
|
NHB
|
11.910
|
3.752
|
3.17
|
4.556
|
19.264
|
0.002
|
|
NHAPI
|
-2.135
|
1.807
|
-1.18
|
-5.676
|
1.405
|
0.237
|
|
Hispanic
|
3.991
|
2.184
|
1.83
|
-.290
|
8.271
|
0.068
|
Her2+/HR-
|
NHB
|
11.725
|
4.768
|
2.46
|
2.379
|
21.071
|
0.014
|
|
NHAPI
|
6.695
|
4.647
|
1.44
|
-2.414
|
15.804
|
0.150
|
|
Hispanic
|
5.203
|
3.556
|
1.46
|
-1.766
|
12.172
|
0.143
|
Her2-/HR+
|
NHB
|
16.599
|
4.213
|
3.94
|
8.342
|
24.856
|
<0.001
|
|
NHAPI
|
-2.986
|
1.811
|
-1.65
|
-6.536
|
.564
|
0.099
|
|
Hispanic
|
6.477
|
2.193
|
2.95
|
2.178
|
10.776
|
0.003
|
Triple-negative
|
NHB
|
11.238
|
5.064
|
2.22
|
1.313
|
21.163
|
0.026
|
|
NHAPI
|
-0.811
|
6.331
|
-0.13
|
-13.220
|
11.599
|
0.898
|
|
Hispanic
|
12.780
|
5.623
|
2.27
|
1.760
|
23.800
|
0.023
|
Cancer Stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stage 1
|
NHB
|
5.130
|
1.840
|
2.79
|
1.523
|
8.737
|
0.005
|
|
NHAPI
|
-.599
|
.869
|
-0.69
|
-2.303
|
1.105
|
0.491
|
|
Hispanic
|
.722
|
.953
|
0.76
|
-1.146
|
2.589
|
0.449
|
Stage 2
|
NHB
|
6.183
|
1.829
|
3.38
|
2.598
|
9.769
|
0.001
|
|
NHAPI
|
-1.669
|
1.227
|
-1.36
|
-4.074
|
.736
|
0.174
|
|
Hispanic
|
1.945
|
1.168
|
1.67
|
-.344
|
4.235
|
0.096
|
Stage 3
|
NHB
|
20.333
|
5.805
|
3.50
|
8.956
|
31.710
|
<0.001
|
|
NHAPI
|
-7.785
|
4.012
|
-1.94
|
-15.647
|
.078
|
0.052
|
|
Hispanic
|
15.375
|
4.933
|
3.12
|
5.706
|
25.044
|
0.002
|
Stage 4
|
NHB
|
95.890
|
29.710
|
3.23
|
37.660
|
154.120
|
0.001
|
|
NHAPI
|
40.315
|
26.355
|
1.53
|
-11.338
|
91.969
|
0.126
|
|
Hispanic
|
57.636
|
22.877
|
2.52
|
12.797
|
102.474
|
0.012
|
NHW = Non-Hispanic White; NHB = Non-Hispanic Black; NHAPI = Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander