Colorectal cancer is currently the third most prevalent tumor worldwide, with an estimated 1.9 million new cases in 2020, accounting for 10% of all new cancer cases. Malignant tumors originating from colon predominate this population, with approximately 1.15 million new cases, 1.57 times the number of rectal cancer cases [1]. As the second leading cause of cancer mortality, 935,000 deaths from colorectal cancer occurred worldwide in 2020, with 577,000 deaths from colon cancer, accounting for approximately 61.7% of all colorectal cancer deaths [1]. The high incidence and high mortality of colon cancer have attracted more and more attention. Clinically, specific biomarkers for colon cancer diagnosis have been widely used, including serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Relevant factors affecting the prognosis of colon cancer are explored, however, there is not yet a molecular marker for predicting the prognosis of colon cancer.
As a systemic disease, tumorigenesis and progression are driven by genetic and epigenetic factors, as well as complex pathways. Tumor recurrence, distant metastasis, intrinsic characteristics of tumor cells have been considered as fundamental drivers of tumor progression. With the emergence of immunotherapy, the importance of TME has been emphasized [7]. Cancer cells disrupt the integrity of intestinal barrier through interactions with immune cells, stromal cells and extracellular matrix, which together form the TME [8, 9]. The TME is not static but dynamic. The differences in drug sensitivity and prognosis reflect that colon cancer is highly heterogeneous in the TME. Generally, specific genetic and epigenetic alterations in colon cancer affect the composition of TME [8, 10, 11]. The development of colon cancer is inextricably linked to dysregulated TME. Either enlargement or reduction in cancer tissues under visual or imaging conditions are the results of interactions between cancer cells and the TME. Overall, tumor development can be divided into three stages, namely, immune surveillance in the initial stage [12], immune homeostasis in the middle stage [13]and immune escape in the final stage [14]. Tumors exhibit immune escape in the final stage as a result of an imbalance between the positive and negative forces opposing the immune system and tumor cells. Immune cells and related factors constitute important components of the TME. The type, density and location of immune cells in tumors can better predict survival [15, 16]. Tang et al [17]classified patients into different immune subtypes according to immune components of the TME and demonstrated that immune subtypes can be used as a reliable predictor of prognosis.
In this study, we have developed an immune-related prognostic model for colon cancer and validated it as an independent predictor for prognosis. Meanwhile, TFs could be involved in prognosis-related immune gene regulation, so that a regulatory network could be constructed based on up- or down-regulation. Finally, this risk model was correlated with immune cell infiltration. Different immune cells with different expression levels presented in tumor samples. We constructed models for high- and low-risk groups. Immune functions and immune checkpoints were significantly different between high- and low-risk groups.
In this study, we have developed a prognostic prediction model for colon cancer based on 12 immune genes, including SLC10A2, FABP4, FGF2, CCL28, IGKV1-6, IGLV6-57, ESM1, UCN, UTS2, VIP, IL1RL2, and NGFR. The SLC10A2 gene encodes the apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter (ASBT) protein, which is located in the luminal membrane of the distal ileum and proximal tubules of the kidney, and plays an important role in bile acid metabolism [18]. Downregulation of SLC10A2 could increase secretion of fecal bile acids and stimulate tumor promotion [19]. Fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP4), a member of the intracellular lipid chaperone family, contributes to pro-tumorigenic effects of adipocytes, macrophages and endothelial cells. Adipocyte-induced FABP4 expression in ovarian cancer cells promotes metastasis and mediates resistance to carboplatin [20]. Activation of β-linked protein in gastric cancer leads to upregulation of CCL28 expression and subsequent recruitment of Treg cells thereby inhibiting gastric cancer progression [21]. Urocortins (UCNs) are members of the adrenocorticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) family, which participates in biological processes, including inflammation and cancer development [22]. Fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) could promote tumor angiogenesis, migration, invasion, inflammatory response and stem cell formation in a variety of solid tumors [23]. Immunoglobulin kappa variable 1-6 (IGKV1-6) [24] and immunoglobulin lambda variable 6-57 (IGLV6-57) [25] located in the V region of the immunoglobulin light chain variable domain are involved in antigen recognition. The antigen binding sites consist of a variable region of the heavy chain and light chain, which can be somatically hypermutated. Endothelial-cells specific molecule 1 (ESM-1)[26], also known as endoglycan, is a marker of angiogenesis, involved in endothelium-dependent pathological disorders and inflammatory responses. ESM1 is overexpressed in non-small cell lung cancer, clear cell renal cell carcinoma and ovarian cancer, to regulate tumor progression. Urotensin II (UTS2)[27] regulates vasoconstriction and is associated with a range of diseases with abnormal blood pressure regulation (e.g. hypertension, kidney disease, cirrhosis, etc.). UTS2 also participates in the development of colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers. Vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) is a 28 amino acid peptide with a wide range of biological activities and is universally expressed in the gastrointestinal tract. VIP regulates gastrointestinal motility, modulates inflammatory responses and stimulates glandular secretion [28]. VIP behaves as a pro-metastatic factor in prostate cancer [29], whereas a protector in hepatocellular carcinoma dependent on cAMP/Bcl-xL pathway induced apoptosis [30]. Interleukin-1 receptor-like 2 (IL1RL2), also known as IL-36 receptor, is produced by monocytes and T/B lymphocytes and distributed in the intestine, kidney, skin and brain [31]. IL1RL2 plays a crucial role in inflammatory response. IL1RL2 is associated with the TEM and metastasis in breast cancer [32]. Nerve growth factor receptor (NGFR) is a member of the neurotrophin receptor family [33]. This gene induces apoptosis and is involved in injury, nervous system development and regeneration. NGFR acts as a tumor suppressor in most cancers, leading to apoptosis and suppressing metastatic invasion. However, in gliomas and melanomas, it promotes invasion and metastasis [34]. The role of NGFR in CRC requires further investigation.
To assess the predictive power of this new model, risk scores were analyzed. Overall survival time of high-risk group (with higher risk scores) was significantly shorter than low-risk group. By jointly analyzing clinical variables and risk scores, age, gender, stage, T-stage, N-stage, M-stage, and risk score were independent prognostic variables for patients with colon cancer. This model consisting of immune genes had ability to predict prognosis. Sobrero et al [35] conducted a clinical study including 12,834 colon cancer patients and found that disease-free-survival of colon cancer patients was influenced by stage [varying from 89% (T1N1a) to T4N2b (31%)]. Another study from the Netherlands included 117,530 colon cancer patients recruited between 1995-2016. The 5-year relative survival rate of patients diagnosed with stage I, II and III colon cancer was 96%, 90% and 71%, respectively [36]. Patients with higher stages of colon cancer had a lower survival rate [37, 38]. Thus, survival status of colon cancer may be directly in proportional to stage. The influence of high expression of immune genes on clinicopathological factors has not yet been conclusive. By analyzing the relationship between immune infiltration and clinical traits, we observed a positive correlation between risk score and T-stage, which demonstrates the clinical applicability of this new model. Colon cancers with greater T-stage had more VIP expression. Similarly, high expression levels of the ESM1 gene and FABP4 gene were associated with T3-4. Previous studies have found a significant increase in VIP in mice with intestinal tumors through AOM/DSS induction [39]. Elevated expression of EMS1 and the chemokine CCL28 produced by intestinal mucosal epithelial cells were common in colon cancer patients. Overexpression of FABP4 promotes cell migration and invasion of colon cancer [40-43], which is consistent with our study. In this study, CCL28 gene expression was more active in M0 patients compared to colon cancer with distant metastases. At this stage, how clinicopathological factors affect the prognosis of colon cancer patients in relation to immune infiltration remains unclear. However, immune risk scores and recognized risk factors such as T-stage and N-stage constitute indispensable risk factors affecting the prognosis of colon cancer. In addition, expression levels of IGKV1-6, IGLV6-57, and CCL28 were higher in colon cancer, while VIP and FABP4 were more biased to be expressed in high-risk group. Thus, positive/negative roles of specific immune genes should be correlated with clinicopathologically relevant molecular markers.
No particular tumor can be identified by molecular markers that combine high sensitivity and high specificity. In the treatment of colon cancer, a drug targeting a specific molecule has its indications and contraindications, and there is almost no drug that can be effective for all patients. Due to heterogeneity of colon cancer, this study analyzed immune genes and downstream factors. In Figs. 1-55, these cell populations were classified. By examining correlation trends of immune cells, CD8+ T cells and CD4+ T cells were positively correlated with risk score. Previous studies have suggested that immune score was used to describe the density of CD3+ and CD8+ T cell effectors in tumors and aggressive margins [15]. In contrast, Spacek et al [44]found decreased levels of CD8+, CD4+, and NK cells and increased levels of B cells in stage II and III colorectal cancer patients by analyzing blood samples from 22 patients and 25 normal controls. CD8+ T cell infiltration was positively correlated with a better survival rate. Similarly, T cell memory expression was reduced, B cell memory was increased, CD4+ resident memory T cells and CD8+ resident memory T cells were reduced in colorectal cancer [45]. In this study, samples were obtained from several public databases, which was limited by the type and number of cells available. Macrophage, myeloid dendritic cell and CD4+ T cells positively correlated with risk scores. Macrophages promote growth of colonic malignant cells through the release of pro-inflammatory factors. Myeloid dendritic cells is essential in antitumor immunity [46, 47]. Further experiments are needed to explore the functions of immune cells.
This study has the following strengths: Firstly, a prognostic model of immune infiltration in colon cancer has been constructed by combining the prognosis of patients with immune genes using a large sample size derived from public databases. The immune risk score is an independent prognostic factor for colon cancer. The reliability of this new model has been validated by multiple methods. Secondly, associations between clinicopathological factors and immunogenes have been explored to provide more possibilities for molecular mechanism studies of colon cancer. Thirdly, important components of the TME-immune cells and TFs are extracted. This new model can predict immune cell infiltration and downstream factors expression levels. Finally, the combination of immune checkpoints and immune risk scores can provide new ideas and possibilities for immunotherapy of colon cancer patients.
There are also limitations in this study. The robustness of this immunogenetic prognostic model requires a large number of prospective clinical studies to validate our findings. The data were downloaded from public databases. It would be more convincing to supplement clinical trials to validate this model. More detailed basic experiments (both in vitro and in vivo) should be designed to support our conclusions.