Statiscal Investigation of Solar Activity Phenomena for Cycle 23 and 24.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1755052/v1

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Statiscal Investigation of Solar Activity Phenomena for Cycle 23 and 24.

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1755052/v1

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A statistical analysis on the main parameters of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar activity for solar cycles 23 and 24 has been carried out and reported. The data used for the analysis was obtained from SOHO/LASCO CME Catalogue by the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW), and Omini Services, for CME and solar activity respectively. The parameter used for his study is Speed at 20R (20R). The solar activity tracers analyzed are sunspot number (SSN) and sunspot area (SSA). We characterized and compared the CME parameter for each cycle, and then compared their monthly time series plots with the solar activity cycle for possible similarities. Also, for each parameter, same analysis was also done on various sizes of CMEs (normal, narrow and wide), fast, slow and CMEs with negative and positive acceleration which were segregated from All CMEs. A comparison of CME time series with solar activity (especially SSAT and SSN which seem to reflect the true general activity cycle) shows that solar activity lags behind CME (for negative)by three months for cycle 24. CME with positive acceleration does not follow the sunspot cycle. Also for CME speed, both category of speeds follow the sunspot cycle but lags by 3 months for cycle 24. CME distributions shows that as All CMEs travel from one cycle to another it decreases, just as other CME segregated angular sizes decreases except for narrow CMEs which increases. Slow CMEs increases while CMEs with positive and negative acceleration decreases. These changes are, perhaps, due to effects of solar wind.

CME

Solar cycle

Sunspot

Solar variability

space weather

solar activity

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic phenomenon in the solar atmosphere. It represents the conversion of magnetic energy in the sun to plasma kinetic energy and flare thermal energy. CME is a transient phenomenon which differs from the quaci-steady plasma flow of solar wind. While CMEs are ejected into the solar wind, they often produce fast-mode MHD shocks, which in turn accelerate charged particles to very high energies. CMEs have great impact on planetary atmospheres an even terminal shocks of the heliosphere as it propagates into the interplanetary (IT) medium. The two major causes of solar variability are: solar evolution and magnetic field of the sun. The former is driven by conditions in the sun’s core while the later is generated by a dynamo located at the bottom of the convection zone. The strength and structure of the resulting magnetic field is determined by differential relation of sun and the turbulent convection at and below the surface. The differential relation produces a mainly toroidal field near the base of the convection zone. Eventually, the strength of the field increases. Above a certain critical strength the field becomes unstable and individual loops start to rise towards the solar surface which they finally reach and pass through making them now accessible for observation. It’s the interaction of this magnetic with correction that leads to the concentration of the field in filaments or bundle of filament called the flux tubes. The largest of these, the sunspots, have diameter similar to that of the earth and are visible as dark features on the solar surface. Whereas most of the magnetic field lines piercing the solar surface form loops and head back to the sun (they form closed magnetic flux), a small fraction is carried out by the solar wind into interplanetary space (called open magnetic flux). In particular, the closed magnetic flux field gives rise to a large number of phenomenon including Sunspots and Coronal Mass Ejection. The solar magnetic field, and hence also the associated activity cycle with a period of roughly 11years. The Sunspots record and other often more indirect, proxies of solar magnetism have invited comparison.

The basic attributes of CME are its speed, width, acceleration and Central Position Angle (CPA), all with reference to the sky plane. The width is a good indicator of the mass content of CMEs. The angular size of the CME is the width. The central angle of this extent with reference to the solar North is the CPA.

After the first discovery of CME in 1971 using Orbiting Solar Observatory (OSO – 7) Coronagraph, since then, several space born Coronagraphs have been use to observe CMEs including the current Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Hemispheric Observatory (SOHO) mission from which data use for this work was obtain. The data is available at http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME -list. The LASCO instrument is placed at lagrangian point 1 (in between the earth and the sun) and consists of three coronagraphs C1, C2, and C3 that span the field of view 1.1-3Rs, 2-6Rs and 3.7-32Rs. However, it suffers from projection effect so though it provides improve speed and acceleration estimate, it doesn’t determine them accurately. Both C2 and C3 are externally occulted with light coronagraphs while C1 was designed for spectrometric purpose (Bidhu S.S et al, 2017).

There are gaps in the collected data. These gaps occurred in

June 24, 1998 – October 22, 1998
Failure of all three gyroscope caused an interruption from December 21, 1998 – February 6, 1999.
In June 2003, the problem was overcome and nominal observation resumed on July 10.

The catalogue contains observed CME parameters including Position angle (Central Position Angle and Meridian position angle- CPA/MPA); The MPA gives the position angle at which the height-time measurements are made while CPA is essentially used to distinguish CMEs appearing simultaneously in the LASCO field of view, thus ideally the CPA are the same) in degrees Angular Width (AW is the angle measure of the size of the CME in the LASCO image) in degrees, Linear speed (LS) in km/s, Initial speed (IS) in km/s, Final speed (FS) in km/s, Speed at 20R in km/s, acceleration in km/s². We calculated the Force (F in N) and the kinetic energy in joules, from the observed mass. We selected a few of these parameters for this study- Speed at 20R and force.

Solar cycle 23 spans August, 1996 – March, 2008 while solar cycle 24 spans December, 2008 – December 2019. I selected the CME data spanning from January, 1996 to May, 2020 (this included the ending of the solar cycle 22 and the beginning of solar cycle 25). There are about 13000 CMES and 18000 CMES for cycle 23 and cycle 24 respectively.

The data for the sunspot number and sunspot area for the years 1992 to 2019 were extracted from the OMNI web service achieve of the NASA space physics data facility using the total monthly sunspot number and the monthly sunspot area. The monthly data with the sunspot area (for the Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere and the total solar surfaces) were extracted for cycle 23 and 24.

We present the monthly mean of CME parameters for cycle 23 and 24, and some selected outliers as in (a) The monthly total sunspot number (SSN) for cycle 23, the sunspot area (Northern Hemisphere (SSANH) and Southern Hemisphere (SSASH)) and the total sunspot area (SSAT) estimated by summing the sunspot areas in both hemisphere.

For the data for CME parameters, we started by debugging, so as to free data from any symbol that may affect analyses. Then

a. We calculated the daily average, then weekly average and eventually monthly average, for ALL CMEs

b. Then, (a) was performed on the following segregated CMEs

Wide [> 120⁰], normal [>50⁰<120⁰], narrow. (Forbes, 2000)
Slow [400km/s], fast [400km/s] for linear speed.(Schwenn, 2006)
CME with positive and negative acceleration. (Chen and Krall, 2003)

In Fig. 1 We show the monthly total sunspot number (SSN), the sunspot area for the northern hemisphere (SSANH), Southern Hemisphere (SSASH), and the total sunspot area (SSAT) estimated by summing the sunspot areas in both southern and northern hemisphere.

The tracers of solar activity all show a double-hump structure as reported by Ramesh and Kilcik; with SSN showing least in variations. The double-peak structure is due to the existence of two surges of toroidal fields (Georgieva, 2011) SSANH, SSASH, SSAT and SSN shows an almost exactly same trend with SSN and SSAT with exactly same behavior for cycle 23; noticeable is a general drip just before April 2001 but for cycle 24 the trends are not exactly as it is for cycle 23; SSAT and SSAH shows similar trend while SSNH different between April 2012 and December 2014. SSN for cycle 24 differs very much in trend to other sunspot tracers except from December 2014 to the end of the cycle for which trend is similar to other sunspot tracers. SSN for cycle 24 shows a much weaker cycle compared to cycle 23. SSN coincided with SSAT in cycle 23 (behaved exactly the same). SSN for cycle 24 shows much reduced Sunspot number compared to cycle 23.

ANALYSIS FOR SPEED AT 20R

Cycle 23 started rising and then declined slightly. It peaked highest in Jan, 2004. In cycle 24, it maintained a horizontal trend; its highest peak was in July, 2009. (Fig 2) Wide 23 follows a more parabolic shape compared to other CME sizes. Narrow 23 also has a parabolic shape but not like wide 23. Other CME sizes follow a more horizontal linear trend. All the CMEs angular sizes (wide, normal and narrow) follow the solar cycle except that for cycle 24, it lags it by 3 months. (Fig 3).

Cycle 23 started rising and then declined slightly. It peaked highest in Jan, 2004.

Slow 23 and fast 23 shows a rising trends. Fast 24 peak to somewhere in between April 2012 to Dec. 2014, and then maintained a somewhat linear trend and then peaked again. Slow 24 follows a horizontal linear trend (Fig 4). None of them follows the solar cycle. PA 23 and NA 23 shows similar trend up to somewhere around Oct. 2008 in most cases, the cycles peak with at same time in a month for instance they both have highest peaks in Jan. 2004. However, PA 24 and NA 24 do not have same trend and peak behavior. PA 24 shows a more linear trend while NA 24 show parabolic trend, except for CMEs with positive acceleration others follows the sunspot cycle. Cycle 23 lags the sunspot cycle by 3months while cycle 24 leads by 3months. (Fig 5).

CMEs with zero speed at 20R appeared more frequently. But the frequency of CMEs between 100 – 1000km/s shows an almost normal distribution but slightly skewed to the right. Then the frequency rose again for CMEs above 1000km/s. Number of events for cycle 23 is 11,350 while those cycle 24 is 17836. Peak value for speed at 200 for All CMEs happened at 0km/s. The average speed values are 368 and 352km/s for cycle 23 and 24 respectively. The speed range is 0 to a little above 1000km/s (Fig 4). For wide CMEs, cycle 23 and 24 has 1226 and 1367 events respectively. Peak value for speed at 20R for wide CMEs happened at 600km/s for both cycle. The average speed values are 849 and 694km/s. for cycle 23 and 24 respectively. The speed range is 0-2800km/s. (Fig 5). For normal CMEs, cycle 23 and 24 has 3890 and 3828 respectively. Peaks values for normal CMEs are 800 and 600km/s for cycle 23 and 24 respectively. The most probable speed for cycles 23 and 24 is 519 and 453km/s respectively. The range is 0 – 1500km/s. (Fig 6). For narrow angle CMEs, total distribution of CME events for cycle 23 and 24 are 5589 and 7294. Peak value for narrow CMEs is 0km/s for both cycles. The most probable speed for both cycle 23 and 24 are 537 and 569 respectively. The range is 0-2600km/s. (Fig 7). After the initial speed of 0km/s a large depression was seen at 200km/s for all the categories of CMEs except for all low distribution for speed at 0km/s relative to other categories.

(Fig 8). For slow speed, cycle 23 has 7872 number of CME events while cycle 24 has 11190. Peak value for slow CMEs is 400km/s for both cycles. The most probable speed for cycle 23 and 24 are 427 and 456 respectively. The range is 0 – 2200km/s. (Fig 9). For fast CMEs, cycle 23 and 24 has 5700 and 4284 CMEs respectively. Peak value for fast CMEs is 600km/s for both cycles. The most probable speed for cycle 23 and 24 are 724 and 739km/s respectively. The speed range is 0-3200km/s. (Fig 10). Distribution for positive acceleration shows 7428 and 9450 CME events for cycle 23 and 24 respectively. Peak value for cycle 23 and 24 400 and 600 respectively for cycle 23 and 24. The range is 200-4200km/s. (Fig 11) Negative acceleration shows 6140 and 6028 as number of event for cycle 23 and cycle 24 respectively. Peak value exist at 0km/s. The most probable speed for cycle 23 and 24 are 314 and 207 respectively. The range is 0-1600km/s.

After the initial speed of 0km/s a large depression was seen at 200km/s for all the categories of CMEs except for all low distribution for speed at 0km/s relative to other categories.

ANALYSIS FOR FORCE

Fig 12 shows distribution of force for All CMEs. CME distribution for force shows multiple peaks. Highest CME peaks occurred at 2.00 x 10¹³N for both cycles. Predominant peak for cycle is 2.00 x 10¹³ N. Cycle 23 has a total of 12485 CMEs while cycle 24 has 17836 CMEs (Fig 12).

For cycle 23; All CMEs, normal CMEs, fast CMEs, CMEs with positive acceleration, CMEs with negative acceleration, slow CMEs, and narrow CMEs show similar trend. However, Normal CMEs, slow CMEs and CMEs with positive acceleration did not dip around year 2001 like others. Also, normal CMEs and fast CMEs did not peak in 2007 like other CMEs. Wide CMEs shows less variation and didn’t quite follow the trend like others.

For cycle 24; All CMEs and normal CMEs shows a more similar trend compared to others. The CME plots all seem to dip in 2018. Narrow CMEs shows a more varying normalized yearly average between the years 2011 and 2016.

MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR ALL CMES
	20R	FORCE
CYCLE 23	368	2.99X10¹⁶
CYCLE 24	352	1.69X10¹⁶
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR WIDE CMES
	20R
CYCLE 23	849
CYCLE 24	694
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR NORMAL CMES
	20R
CYCLE 23	519
CYCLE 24	453
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR NARROW CMES
	20R
CYCLE 23	537
CYCLE 24	569
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR POSITIVE ACCELERATION
	20R
CYCLE 23	748
CYCLE 24	743
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR NEGATIVE ACCELERATION
	20R
CYCLE 23	314
CYCLE 24	207
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR SLOW CMES
	20R
CYCLE 23	427
CYCLE 24	456
MEAN VALUE OF HISTOGRAM FOR FAST CMES
	20R
CYCLE 23	724
CYCLE 24	739

According to the number of Sunspots (SSNS) for solar cycle 24 has been very weak and also the least since the dawn of the space era (Singh & Bhargawa 2017).
From the comparison of CME time series with solar activity (especially SSAT and SSN which seem to reflect the time general activity cycle) shows that solar activity lags behind CME by three years for cycle 23 and lags by one year for cycle 24
For All CMEs all parameters decreased from one cycle to the other except for acceleration and kinetic energy.
For wide CMEs, values of its parameters considered in this study decreases from one cycle to the other.
For normal CMEs all values decrease except for acceleration which recorded almost insignificant increase.
For narrow CMEs, all values decreases except for Angular Width which recorded an almost insignificant increase.
For slow CMEs, value of its parameter considered decreases (Low and Zhang 2002), except for acceleration and K.E which increases.
For fast CMEs only acceleration parameter decreases in value from one cycle to another (St. Cyr et al.,2000). Other parameters recorded an increase in value.
For positive acceleration, CME parameters show decrease in value, Mass and K.E; acceleration showed an insignificant increase.
For negative acceleration, acceleration show an almost insignificant increase.

From the comparison of CME time series with solar activity parameters especially SSAT and SSN, we observe that solar activity lag behind CME by three years for cycle 23 and by one year for cycle 24. CME distributions shows that angular width for All CMEs increases as they travel from one cycle to another. For angular width, wide CMEs shows increases in CPA. Slow CMEs shows increase in Speed at 20R while fast CMEs shows a decrease in angular width. These changes is perhaps due to effects of solar wind.

Funding: I received no funding for his project.

Competing Interests: I have no competing interests.

ACKNOLEDGEMENTS

The authors wish to thank the referee whose invaluable contributions improved the quality of this article. The CME catalog is generated and maintained by the center for solar physics and space weather, the Catholic University of America in cooperation with the Naval Research Laboratory and NASA. SOHO is a project of international cooperation between ESA and NASA

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No competing interests reported.

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Statiscal Investigation of Solar Activity Phenomena for Cycle 23 and 24.

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Abstract

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Introduction

Data

Analysis And Result

Summary

Conclusion

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References

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