Baseline characteristics of participants
The baseline characteristics of the patients divided by GGT/HDL-C quartiles show in table 1. The average age of the participants was 43.71 ± 8.90 years. The average GGT/HDL-C was 10.78 (1.57-342.82). The factors of age, gender, BMI, ALT, AST, T-CHO, TG, SBP, DBP, FPG, HbA1C, and ethanol consumption were compared across the GGT/HDL-C quartiles. In the higher GGT/HDL-C group (Q3, Q4), males accounted for the majority, and relatively more participants in Q3 and Q4 were diagnosed as having fatty liver disease and being current smokers compared with the lower GGT/HDL-C groups (Q1, Q2). The participants of the Q3 and Q4 group also had a relatively higher ethanol consumption compared with the lower GGT/HDL-C group (Q1 and Q2).
Table 1 Baseline characteristics of participants
GGT/HDL-C ratio
quartiles
|
Q1
(1.57-7.20)
|
Q2
(7.20-10.77)
|
Q3
(10.78-17.95)
|
Q4
(17.96-342.82)
|
P value
|
N
|
3862
|
3861
|
3866
|
3864
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001
|
Male
|
441 (11.42%)
|
1576 (40.82%)
|
2881 (74.52%)
|
3521 (91.12%)
|
|
Female
|
3421 (88.58%)
|
2285 (59.18%)
|
985 (25.48%)
|
343 (8.88%)
|
|
Age (years)
|
42.31±8.36
|
43.12±9.05
|
44.31±9.25
|
45.09±8.65
|
<0.001
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
20.36±2.31
|
21.26±2.64
|
22.56±2.95
|
24.28±3.08
|
<0.001
|
SBP (mmHg)
|
107.48±13.14
|
111.86±13.90
|
116.78±14.32
|
121.85±14.50
|
<0.001
|
DBP (mmHg)
|
66.40±9.16
|
69.54±9.52
|
73.23±10.02
|
77.15±10.09
|
<0.001
|
ALT (IU/L)
|
13.00 (10.00-15.00)
|
15.00 (12.00-18.00)
|
18.00 (15.00-23.00)
|
26.00 (20.00-36.00)
|
<0.001
|
AST (IU/L)
|
15.00 (13.00-18.00)
|
16.00 (13.00-19.00)
|
18.00 (15.00-21.00)
|
21.00 (17.00-26.00)
|
<0.001
|
T-CHO (mmol/L)
|
5.02 (4.47-5.61)
|
4.94 (4.40-5.51)
|
5.04 (4.47-5.66)
|
5.33 (4.76-5.87)
|
<0.001
|
TG (mmol/L)
|
0.51 (0.38-0.69)
|
0.61 (0.44-0.86)
|
0.84 (0.60-1.20)
|
1.23 (0.86-1.80)
|
<0.001
|
HbA1C (mmol/mol)
|
32.24 (30.06-35.52)
|
32.24 (30.52-35.52)
|
33.34 (31.15-35.52)
|
33.34 (31.15-36.09)
|
<0.001
|
FPG (mg/dL)
|
89.00 (85.00-94.00)
|
91.00 (87.00-96.00)
|
94.00 (90.00-99.00)
|
97.00 (92.00-102.00)
|
<0.001
|
Ethanol consumption (g/week)
|
1.00 (0.00-12.00)
|
1.00 (0.00-36.00)
|
10.27 (0.00-84.00)
|
36.00 (1.00-132.00)
|
<0.001
|
Fatty liver
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001
|
No
|
3777 (97.80%)
|
3600 (93.24%)
|
3123 (80.78%)
|
2216 (57.35%)
|
|
Yes
|
85 (2.20%)
|
261 (6.76%)
|
743 (19.22%)
|
1648 (42.65%)
|
|
Habit of exercise
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001
|
No
|
3206 (83.01%)
|
3139 (81.30%)
|
3123 (80.78%)
|
3279 (84.86%)
|
|
Yes
|
656 (16.99%)
|
722 (18.70%)
|
743 (19.22%)
|
585 (15.14%)
|
|
Smoking status
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001
|
Never
|
3204 (82.96%)
|
2645 (68.51%)
|
1811 (46.84%)
|
1367 (35.38%)
|
|
Past
|
374 (9.68%)
|
598 (15.49%)
|
929 (24.03%)
|
1048 (27.12%)
|
|
Current
|
284 (7.35%)
|
618 (16.01%)
|
1126 (29.13%)
|
1449 (37.50%)
|
|
Incidence of diabetes
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001
|
No
|
3842 (99.48%)
|
3819 (98.91%)
|
3791 (98.06%)
|
3628 (93.89%)
|
|
Yes
|
20 (0.52%)
|
42 (1.09%)
|
75 (1.94%)
|
236 (6.11%)
|
|
Values are mean±SD or median (interquartile range) or n(%)
BMI, body mass index; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; HbA1C, glycosylated hemoglobin; TG, triglyceride; T-CHO, total cholesterol; GGT, gamma-glutamyltransferase; HDL-C, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; FPG, fasting plasma glucose.
Univariate analysis
Univariate analysis was performed, and the results are shown in Table 2. In summary, age, BMI, SBP, DBP, ALT, AST, T-CHO, TG, FPG, ethanol consumption, paste and current smoking status, and the GGT/HDL-C were positively associated with the incidence of T2DM. Habitual exercise had no relationship with the incidence of diabetes mellitus. The risk of developing T2DM in male was higher than in female, and smokers (current and past) also has a higher risk of developing T2DM compared to never smokers.
The Kaplan-Meier curves of the four GGT/HDL-C quartile groups showed that the diabetes incidence risk between each of them was significantly different (the P value of the log-rank test < 0.0001). The increase in cumulative diabetes event rates kept pace with the increased GGT/HDL-C quartiles (Figure 1).
Table 2 The results of univariate analysis
|
Statistics
|
HR (95% CI)
|
P value
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
Female
|
7034 (45.52%)
|
Ref
|
|
Male
|
8419 (54.48%)
|
2.53 (1.99, 3.21)
|
<0.0001
|
Age (years)
|
43.71 ± 8.90
|
1.06 (1.04, 1.07)
|
<0.0001
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
22.12 ± 3.13
|
1.24 (1.22, 1.27)
|
<0.0001
|
SBP (mmHg)
|
114.49 ± 14.97
|
1.03 (1.03, 1.04)
|
<0.0001
|
DBP (mmHg)
|
71.58 ± 10.50
|
1.05 (1.04, 1.06)
|
<0.0001
|
ALT (IU/L)
|
19.99 ± 14.35
|
1.006 (1.005, 1.007)
|
<0.0001
|
AST (IU/L)
|
18.40 ± 8.64
|
1.008 (1.006, 1.010)
|
<0.0001
|
T-CHO (mmol/L)
|
198.22 ± 33.41
|
1.010 (1.008, 1.013)
|
<0.0001
|
TG (mmol/L)
|
80.78 ± 58.07
|
1.007 (1.006, 1.007)
|
<0.0001
|
HbA1C (mmol/mol)
|
33.03 ± 3.52
|
1.44 (1.40, 1.48)
|
<0.0001
|
FPG (mg/dl)
|
92.96 ± 7.44
|
1.20 (1.18, 1.22)
|
<0.0001
|
Ethanol consumption (g/week)
|
47.71 ± 82.31
|
1.002 (1.001, 1.003)
|
0.0011
|
Fatty liver
|
|
|
|
No
|
12716 (82.288%)
|
Ref
|
|
Yes
|
2737 (17.712%)
|
7.03 (5.71, 8.64)
|
<0.0001
|
Habit of exercise
|
|
|
|
No
|
12747 (82.49%)
|
Ref
|
|
Yes
|
2706 (17.51%)
|
0.76 (0.56, 1.02)
|
0.0652
|
Smoking status
|
|
|
|
Never
|
9027 (58.42%)
|
Ref
|
|
Past
|
2949 (19.08%)
|
1.66 (1.26, 2.19)
|
0.0003
|
Current
|
3477 (22.50%)
|
2.59 (2.06, 3.25)
|
<0.0001
|
GGT/HDL-C ratio
|
15.55 ± 15.73
|
1.02 (1.01, 1.02)
|
<0.0001
|
CI Confidence interval, Ref Reference
Relationship between GGT/HDL-C and the incidence of T2DM
In table 3, we used a cox proportional hazard regression model to evaluate the associations between the GGT/HDL-C and the incidence of T2DM. Non-adjusted model and models with different covariates adjusted were presented. In the crude model and model I (minimally adjusted model), the GGT/HDL-C ratio had a significant positive correlation with the incidence of T2DM: in the crude model, HR = 1.015, 95% CI: 1.013 to 1.017, P < 0.00001; in the adjusted model I (adjusted age, gender, and BMI), HR = 1.010, 95% CI:1.007 to 1.014, P < 0.00001. In the adjusted model II (fully adjusted model), HR = 1.005, 95% CI:1.000 to 1.010, P = 0.0670; the positive correlation between them was insignificant. The GGT/HDL-C ratio was then handled as a categorical variable (quartile) for the purpose of sensitivity analysis. There was an increased risk for developing T2DM as the quartiles of GGT/HDL-C increased in the crude model and the adjusted model I (both P for trend <0.00001), and we also observed significant P for trend (< 0.00396) in the fully adjusted model.
Table 3 Relationship between GGT/HDL-C and incident of DM2 in different models
Exposure
|
Crude model (HR, 95% CI, P)
|
Model I (HR, 95% CI, P)
|
Model II (HR, 95% CI, P)
|
GGT/HDL-C
|
1.015 (1.013, 1.017) <0.00001
|
1.010 (1.007, 1.014) <0.00001
|
1.005 (1.000, 1.010) 0.0670
|
GGT/HDL-C quartiles
|
|
|
|
Q1
|
Ref
|
Ref
|
Ref
|
Q2
|
2.22 (1.30, 3.78) 0.0033
|
1.87 (1.09, 3.22) 0.0228
|
1.28 (0.74, 2.20) 0.3790
|
Q3
|
4.04 (2.47, 6.62) <0.0001
|
2.75 (1.62, 4.68) 0.0002
|
1.25 (0.73, 2.16) 0.4171
|
Q4
|
11.59 (7.34, 18.30) <0.0001
|
6.08 (3.59, 10.29) <0.0001
|
1.84 (1.04, 3.24) 0.0361
|
P for trend
|
<0.0001
|
<0.0001
|
0.00396
|
Crude model did not adjust other covariant
Model I adjusted age, gender, BMI
Model II adjusted age, gender, BMI, SBP, DBP, ALT, AST, T-CHO, TG, HbA1C, FPG, fatty liver, smoking and exercise status and ethanol consumption
CI Confidence interval, Ref Reference
Non-linear relationship between GGT/HDL-C and T2DM
Next, we used GAM to explore whether there was a curvilinear relationship between the independent and dependent variables and showed the results in figure 2. We observed a curvilinear relationship after covariates (gender, age, BMI, ALT, AST, T-CHO, TG, HbA1C, FPG, SBP, DBP, smoking, exercise status, ethanol consumption, and fatty liver disease) were adjusted. Subsequent threshold effect analysis found an inflection point in their curvilinear relationship at GGT/HDL equaled to 6.35 (log-likelihood ratio test, P = 0.001). When the GGT/HDL was less than 6.53, the risk of incident T2DM increased with the increase of GGT/HDL-C (HR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.20 to 5.49, P = 0.0151). When the GGT/HDL-C ratio was greater than 6.53, the incidence of T2DM no longer increased (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.01, P = 0.0803), and their relationship tended to saturate (Table 4).
Table 4 The result of two-piecewise linear regression model
|
Incident of diabetes
(HR, 95%CI)
|
P value
|
Fitting model by standard linear regression
|
1.01 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.0670
|
Fitting model by two-piecewise linear regression
|
|
|
Inflection point of GGT/HDL-C
|
6.53
|
|
≤ 6.53
|
2.57 (1.20, 5.49)
|
0.0151
|
≥ 6.53
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.0803
|
P for log likelihood ratio test
|
0.001
|
Adjusted age, gender, BMI, SBP, DBP, FPG, ALT, AST, HbA1C, T-CHO, TG, fatty liver, smoking and drinking status, exercise status.
Subgroup analysis
We used age, gender, BMI, SBP, DBP, smoking, drinking, exercise status, and fatty liver disease as categorical variables to evaluate the effect sizes in different subgroups and to explore potential interactions in table 5. Tests for interactions were not statistically significant across all the subgroups listed above (all P-values for interactions were > 0.05). Considering the non-linear relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable might also exist in other subgroups, we supplemented the smoothing plots in stratified age, gender, BMI, smoking, drinking, exercise status, SBP, DBP, and fatty liver disease in the supplement figure 1 (Figure S1). We discovered that the curvilinear relationship existed in each of the above subgroups. Therefore, the test for interaction needed to consider the existence of the curvilinear relationship and required further in-depth research.
Table 5 Effect size of GGT/HDL-C on incident DM2 in prespecified and exploratory subgroups
Character
|
Number of participant
|
Effect size (95%CI)
|
P value
|
P for interaction
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
|
0.7182
|
<60
|
14741
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.0903
|
|
>=60
|
712
|
1.00 (0.98, 1.02)
|
0.9106
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
0.9279
|
Male
|
8419
|
1.005 (0.983, 1.027)
|
0.6853
|
|
Female
|
7034
|
1.006 (1.000, 1.011)
|
0.0455*
|
|
BMI (kg/m2)
|
|
|
|
0.6066
|
<23
|
10059
|
1.004 (0.996, 1.012)
|
0.3575
|
|
>=23
|
5394
|
1.006 (1.000, 1.012)
|
0.0375*
|
|
SBP (mmHg)
|
|
|
|
0.4241
|
<140
|
14668
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.1285
|
|
>=140
|
785
|
1.01 (1.00, 1.03)
|
0.1511
|
|
DBP (mmHg)
|
|
|
|
0.3525
|
<90
|
14690
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.1642
|
|
>=90
|
763
|
1.01 (1.00, 1.02)
|
0.0866
|
|
Current smoker
|
|
|
|
0.7553
|
Never
|
9027
|
1.00 (0.99, 1.02)
|
0.3915
|
|
Past
|
2949
|
1.01 (1.00, 1.02)
|
0.1355
|
|
Current
|
3477
|
1.00 (0.99, 1.01)
|
0.4486
|
|
Drinking status
|
|
|
|
0.5413
|
Non
|
11802
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.2545
|
|
Light
|
1754
|
1.00 (0.99, 1.02)
|
0.5992
|
|
Moderate
|
1357
|
1.00 (0.98, 1.01)
|
0.6772
|
|
Heavy
|
540
|
1.02 (1.00, 1.03)
|
0.0150*
|
|
Fatty liver
|
|
|
|
0.4586
|
No
|
12716
|
1.00 (1.00, 1.01)
|
0.4310
|
|
Yes
|
2737
|
1.007 (1.001, 1.014)
|
0.0290*
|
|
Exercise
|
|
|
|
0.3589
|
No
|
12747
|
1.004 (0.998, 1.010)
|
0.1552
|
|
Yes
|
2706
|
1.012 (0.997, 1.027)
|
0.1164
|
|
Note 1: Above model adjusted for age, gender, BMI, SBP, DBP, FPG, ALT, AST, HBA1C, T-CHO, TG, fatty liver, smoking and drinking status, exercise status
Note 2: In each case, the model is not adjusted for the stratification variable