Study population
The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute is a network of population-based incident tumor registries from geographically distinct regions in the United States[13, 14]. The SEER program collects uniformly reported data on patient demographics, month and year of diagnosis, tumor characteristics, treatment utilization and mortality for all incident cancers from selected population-based cancer registries in the United States. The analysis data were downloaded from the SEER database containing information on cancer patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2018, released on April 2021, based on the November 2020 submission [Incidence - SEER Research Plus Data, 18 Registries, Nov 2020 Sub (2000–2018)] by the SEER*Stat version 8.4.0 (SEER ID: 12311-Nov2021).
Since HER2 receptor status for breast cancer patients was collected from 2010[15], breast cancer patients diagnosed in 2010 and later were selected from the SEER program Plus Data and included in this population-based cohort study. Briefly, a total of 599,399 FPBC patients were initially selected from the SEER program Plus Data. After excluding male patients (N=4,106), patients with age at diagnosis younger than 20 or older than 85 (N=23,426), and those with borderline/unknown ER/PR/HER2 (N=136,941), a total of 434,926 female FPBC with complete information on ER, PR, and HER2 were identified. After further excluding patients without secondary primary cancer (N=418,167) and second primary cancer diagnosed within 6 months after FPBC (N=1,369), a total of 15,390 second primary cancer patients after FPBC were selected. Finally, after excluding patients with second primary cancer but not breast cancer (N=11,084) and borderline/unknown ER, PR or HER2 in SPBC (N=529), a total of 3,777 SPBC patients with completed information on ER, PR, and HER2 in both FPBC and SPBC were included in the final analyses. Detailed information in data selection is referred in Figure S1.
ER, PR, and HER2 receptor status
SEER registries began to collect data on ER and PR status for breast cancer cases since 1990 and to collect HER2 receptor status since 2010[15]. The data on ER, PR, and HER2 status were recorded by the SEER program in the following categories: 1) positive (+), 2) negative (-), 3) borderline, 4) unknown, 9) recode not available. To get a clear change in ER, PR, and HER2 status between FPBC and SPBC, only patients with positive or negative biomarkers were included in the final analyses. Hormone receptor (HR) was defined as positive if either ER or PR was positive, and HR was defined as negative if both ER and PR were negative. The derived HER2 summary variable was created by the SEER program using several HER2-related site-specific factors from the SEER data collection system. Breast cancer subtypes are defined by joint hormone receptors (ER and PR) and HER2 status.
Follow-up, SPBC ascertainment, and outcomes
SEER data were linked with data from the National Center for Health Statistics to determine death and cause of death. Follow-up time, as recorded in months, started at the 6 months after diagnosis of FPBC and ended at the date of death, date last known to be alive, or end of follow-up (December 31, 2018), whichever came first. The median follow-up time was 75 months between FPBC and SPBC, and 24 months between diagnosis of SPBC and end of follow-up. The SEER definition of multiple primary tumors was used to define SPBC in this study, which took into account the site of origin, time since diagnosis, histology, tumor behavior, and laterality of paired organs[4]. Breast cancer-specific mortality was considered as the primary outcomes. Instability of each marker between FPBC and SPBC was divided into four patterns: stable positive [FPBC(+)/SPBC(+)], loss of marker [FPBC(+)/SPBC(-)], stable negative [FPBC(-)/SPBC(-)] and gain of marker [FPBC(-)/SPBC(+)].
Statistical Analysis
The McNemar’s test was used to analyze and compare the instability of ER, PR, and HER2 between FPBC and SPBC. Chi-square tests were used to compare the proportion of early-stage SPBC in overall SPBC by change of molecular subtype markers. Early-stage SPBC was defined as carcinoma in situ and localized breast cancers according to SEER historic stage. Fine-gray survival curves were used to compare the survival by change of ER, PR, and HER2. Multivariate competing risk models were used to investigate the risk of breast cancer-specific mortality of SPBC concerning markers’ change after adjusting for age at diagnosis(<50, 50 - 60, ≥ 60 years), race (white, non-white), marital status (married, other), grade (I + II, III), SEER historic stage (in situ + localized, regional + distant), chemotherapy (no, yes), radiation therapy (no, yes) and surgery (no, yes) in SPBC. HER2 status in SPBC was further adjusted in the multivariate competing risk model for ER/PR change with the prognosis of SPBC, while HR status in SPBC was further adjusted for HER2 change with the prognosis of SPBC. Moreover, multivariate competing risk models were further conducted to investigate whether different treatments were still effective for SPBC patients with different change patterns of markers. Finally, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the potential clinical factors in FPBC associated with the changes of markers. HER2 status in FPBC was further included as a potential factor for the change of ER/PR change in the multivariate logistic regression model, while HR status in FPBC was further included for the HER2 change.
A p-value<0.05 (two-tailed) was considered as statistically significant. All the statistical analyses were carried out with SAS 9.4 (Statistical Analysis System Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA) and the figures were drawn by R software (version 4.1.0).