Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic of respiratory disease spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study is to apply SEIR compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number R0. The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods.
Results: The value of basic reproduction number R0 was determined as 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing, wearing of masks and frequent washing of hands can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine and isolation are key winners to this pandemic.