The usefulness of different approaches for simultaneous or indirect selection has been investigated in many crops. In this context, the response to selection and the genetic variability, weights, and correlations among traits over breeding cycles must be investigated (Bernardo 1991). With this aim, our study brings the optimization of the simultaneous selection in long-term breeding programs via stochastic simulations. For that, we compared eight different methods of simultaneous selection. Moreover, we proposed a new approach to optimize the initial weights for the Smith-Hazel method to maximize the genetic gains for all traits in a balanced way.
Not surprisingly, the traits achieved their highest response to selection (genetic additive standard deviations) if selected on the traits per se rather than based on indices. Conversely, the negatively correlated traits were penalized due to the indirect negative selection based on the truncated selection (Figs. 1a, 1b, and 1c). Overall, all indices provided positive gains for all traits. However, it is clear the presence of a crossover interaction between trait and index concerning the response to selection (RS) (Fig. 2). For instance, for the Putative Haploid Inducer Rate (HIRp), the best methods were SH_Optim, (µ = 4.88) followed by MT (µ = 4.84) and SI_Emp (µ = 4.63). On the other hand, for the Real Haploid Inducer Rate (HIRr), higher genetic gains were obtained using SI_Emp (µ = 8.72), followed by SH_Optim (µ = 8.65) and PB (µ = 8.12), respectively. Nevertheless, the RS for expressiveness (EXP) was smaller in contrast to HIR, with better estimates achieved using the SH method (µ = 3.95), followed by Culling (µ = 3.76) and MT (µ = 2.67).
As expected, each selection index works differently in the selection process. For example, it can identify the "best recombinant combinations" or change the allele frequencies over cycles. Therefore, it has significant consequences regarding the weight for each trait and the correlations among traits. Concerning the weights for HIRp, HIRr, and EXP, all methodologies have not changed over the cycles, except for PB (Fig. 1d, 1e, and 1f). Regarding HIRp, after 17 cycles, there was a huge increase in weight and maintained until cycle 17th, and after, it decreased until it reached negative (19th ) and increased again at 20th (Fig. 1d). For HIRr and EXP, the weights were increasing slowly, and after 17 cycles, they increased, reaching a maximum rate at the 20th cycle (Figs. 1e and 1f). Overall, over the breeding cycles, the selection and recombination processes tend to reduce the differences among the weights for each trait, converging then to the same point.
All simulation methods fluctuated through cycles considering the genetic correlations among traits (Figs. 1g, 1h, and 1i). The highest genetic correlation between HIRp and HIRr was achieved after 6 cycles using the Trunc_EXP approach, while the other methods oscillated around 0.1–0.3 over cycles (Fig. 1g). SH_Optim and SI_Emp, after the 13th and MT after the 17th cycle, turned the correlations negative (Fig. 1g). Considering the genetic correlation between HIRp and EXP, PB showed a decreasing pattern while the Trunc_HIRp showed an increase in the genetic correlation (Fig. 1h). A similar negative pattern was observed for genetic correlation between HIRr and EXP, constant over cycles, whose peaks were founded after 18 breeding cycles (Figs. 1 and 1i).
Overall SI aims to improve several traits concomitantly and, besides the interaction between trait x index, it is necessary to define a method that provides the maximum or the desired genetic gains for all traits, at least in this targeted case. Hence, we sum up the response to selection per method across all traits. There were significant differences among the method, where the SH outperformed the others in terms of total genetic gains across all traits (µ = 15.76), followed by MT (µ = 15.34), and PB (µ = 15.15) (Fig. 3). Furthermore, SH also outperformed others in the total balanced gain (µ = 9.88), followed by Culling (µ = 7.69), and MT (µ = 5.72) (Fig. 4). Conversely, our proposed method, SH_optim, was the worst concerning the total genetic gain (µ = 14.22) and total balanced gain (µ = 3.63). The “super” optimized weights might create this inferiority for traits based on the dataset of the first breeding cycle, which shows not work in long-term breeding.
Theoretically, SI methods are more effective than the Independent Culling (Hazel and Lush 1942), and this has been confirmed based on our results, other authors working with simulated experiments (Batista et al. 2021), and empirical data (Elgin et al. 1970). In literature, it has been described that the Pešek and Baker index, when defined in terms of the genetic covariances among traits and the desired gain based on genetic standard deviations, outperformed other methods. It was not the case in the present study but was in others such as the Smith-Hazel selecting energy cane clones with good fiber, sucrose, and cane yield in tons per hectare (de Azeredo et al. 2017) or the independent Culling for protein content among families with above-average oil concentration levels (Openshaw and Hadley 1984). The lack of consistency in the PB across different studies is probably due to defining the desired genetic gains and matching them with the genetic variability available in the population and the constraints generated by the genetic correlations among the target traits. Therefore, more stable methods such as SH are prone to provide better genetic gains (total and balanced) in a wide range of scenarios. The main reason is that it maximizes the genetic gains for all traits, balancing the weight of each trait by their heritability (Smith 1936; Hazel 1943), which is closely related to the accuracy and the genetic variability available for selection.
Finally, it is possible to conclude that SI is a key factor in the multi-trait response to selection in long-term breeding programs. Among the options, our results showed that the traditional Smith and Hazel approach outperformed other methods for the total and balanced response to selection for important traits in a tropical corn haploid inducer breeding population.