1. Patient characteristics
In total, 498 dmNPC patients were included in this analysis. Among them, 378 (75.3%) and 123 (24.7%) patients had single and multiple metastatic organs, respectively. The median age was 47 years (range, 18–77 years) and most patients were male (83.1%, 414/498). Regarding metastatic lesions, 338 (67.9%) and 160 (32.1%) patients had five or less and more than five lesions, respectively. Based on ROC analysis, the EBV DNA copies cutoff value was set at 25,000 copies/ml and 284 (57.0%) patients had levels that surpassed this value. As shown in Table 1, we found statistical differences in the number of metastatic organs, number of metastatic lesions, and pretreatment EBV DNA copies between the different treatment groups.
Table 1
The clinical characteristics of the patients that did RT and did not do RT
Characteristic
|
Total
|
non-RT
|
RT
|
P value
|
|
N (%)
|
N (%)
|
N (%)
|
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 47
|
246 (49.4)
|
87(46.5%)
|
159(51.1%)
|
0.355
|
> 47
|
252 (50.6)
|
100(53.5%)
|
152(48.9%)
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
414 (83.1)
|
155(82.9%)
|
259(83.3%)
|
1.000
|
Female
|
84 (498)
|
32(17.1%)
|
52(16.7%)
|
|
Smoking
|
|
|
|
|
No smoking
|
278 (55.8)
|
109(58.3%)
|
169(54.3%)
|
0.403
|
Smoking
|
220 (44.2)
|
78(41.7%)
|
142(45.7%)
|
|
Family history
|
|
|
|
|
No
|
447 (89.8)
|
170(90.9%)
|
277(89.1%)
|
0.545
|
Yes
|
51(10.2)
|
17(9.1%)
|
34(10.9%)
|
|
T stage
|
|
|
|
|
T1-T2
|
83 (16.7)
|
29(15.5%)
|
54(17.4%)
|
0.621
|
T3-T4
|
415 (83.3)
|
158(84.5%)
|
257(82.6%)
|
|
N stage
|
|
|
|
|
N0-N1
|
103 (20.7)
|
30(16.0%)
|
73(23.5%)
|
0.052
|
N2-N3
|
398 (79.3)
|
157(84.0%)
|
238(76.5%)
|
|
No. of metastatic organs
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
378 (75.3)
|
116(62.0%)
|
259(83.3%)
|
< 0.001
|
> 1
|
123 (24.7)
|
71(38.0%)
|
52(16.7%)
|
|
No. of metastatic lesions
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 5
|
338 (67.9)
|
97(51.9%)
|
241(77.5%)
|
< 0.001
|
> 5
|
160 (32.1)
|
90(48.1%)
|
70(22.5%)
|
|
EBV-DNA(Copies/ml)
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 25,000
|
214 (43.0)
|
59(31.6%)
|
155(49.8%)
|
< 0.001
|
> 25,000
|
284 (57.0)
|
128(68.4%)
|
156(50.2%)
|
|
Chemotherapy regimens
|
|
|
|
|
TPF
|
128 (25.7)
|
40(21.4%)
|
88(28.3%)
|
0.001
|
TP
|
121 (24.3)
|
36(19.3%)
|
85(27.3%)
|
|
PF
|
129 (25.9)
|
58(31.0%)
|
71(22.8%)
|
|
GP
|
27 (5.4)
|
18(9.6%)
|
9(2.9%)
|
|
others
|
93 (18.7)
|
35(18.7%)
|
58(18.6%)
|
|
2. Analysis of clinical characteristics’ influences on the prognosis of dmNPC patients
All factors that may influence prognosis were included in the Cox proportional hazards regression model. As shown in Table 2, we found a higher mortality risk for patients who had metastasis in multiple organs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.897; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.401–2.568; p < 0.001), more than five metastatic lesions (HR, 2.246; 95% CI, 1.670–3.020; p < 0.001), or pretreatment EBV DNA concentrations above 25,000 copies/ml (HR, 1.479; 95% CI, 1.132–1.930; p = 0.004), whereas patients who underwent RT had a lower risk of death (HR, 0.665; 95% CI, 0.511–0.864; p = 0.002). Thus, we concluded that multiple organs metastasis, over five metastatic lesions, and EBV DNA concentration above the cutoff value may represent risk factors, whereas RT treatment may be a protective factor. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves also showed an association between RT and improved OS (3-year OS, 27% vs. 13%; p < 0.001) (Fig. 2A). As expected, patients with the aforementioned risk factors had shorter OS than other patients (p < 0.001 for all) (Fig. 2B-D).
Table 2
Multivariable analysis for patients prognosis
Characteristic
|
Hazard ratio
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
|
≤ 47
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 47
|
1.183
|
0.929–1.507
|
0.172
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
Male
|
Reference
|
|
|
Female
|
0.927
|
0.669–1.285
|
0.650
|
Smoking
|
|
|
|
No smoking
|
Reference
|
|
|
Smoking
|
1.160
|
0.903–1.489
|
0.246
|
Family history
|
|
|
|
No
|
Reference
|
|
|
Yes
|
0.746
|
0.469–1.187
|
0.217
|
T stage
|
|
|
|
T1-T2
|
Reference
|
|
|
T3-T4
|
0.940
|
0.686–1.289
|
0.702
|
N stage
|
|
|
|
N0-N1
|
Reference
|
|
|
N2-N3
|
1.379
|
0.982–1.886
|
0.056
|
No. of metastatic organs
|
|
|
|
1
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 1
|
1.897
|
1.401–2.568
|
<0.001
|
No. of metastatic lesions
|
|
|
|
≤ 5
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 5
|
2.246
|
1.670–3.020
|
<0.001
|
EBV-DNA(Copies/ml)
|
|
|
|
≤ 25,000
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 25,000
|
1.479
|
1.132–1.930
|
0.004
|
Chemotherapy regimens
|
|
|
|
TPF
|
Reference
|
|
|
TP
|
0.799
|
0.560–1.141
|
0.218
|
PF
|
0.835
|
0.580–1.203
|
0.334
|
GP
|
0.881
|
0.619–1.254
|
0.481
|
Others
|
0.821
|
0.460–1.464
|
0.504
|
Radiotherapy
|
|
|
|
Non-RT
|
Reference
|
|
|
RT
|
0.665
|
0.511–0.864
|
0.002
|
3. Clinical characteristics of patients that did or did not underwent RT in different risk stratifications
According to the risk factors defined in the previous subsection, we divided patients into eight subgroups: group A, single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration ≤ 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions; group B, single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration > 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions; group C, multiple organs metastasis, EBV DNA concentration ≤ 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions; group D, multiple organs metastasis, EBV DNA concentration > 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions; group E, single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration ≤ 25,000 copies/ml, and more than 5 metastatic lesions; group F, single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration > 25,000 copies/ml, and more than 5 metastatic lesions; group G, multiple organs metastasis, EBV DNA concentration ≤ 25,000 copies/ml, and more than 5 metastatic lesions; and group H, multiple organs metastasis, EBV DNA concentration > 25,000 copies/ml, and more than metastatic lesions.
The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients in groups C-H had shorter OS than those in groups A-B; moreover, the OS of group A was significantly longer than that of group B (p < 0.05 for all). However, further paired comparisons revealed no significant differences in OS among groups C-H (p > 0.05 for all) (Fig. 3A). Subsequently, we classified group A as a low-risk subgroup (single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration ≤ 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions), group B as an intermediate-risk subgroup (single organ metastasis, EBV DNA concentration > 25,000 copies/ml, and 5 or fewer metastatic lesions), and groups C-H as a high-risk subgroup (multiple organs metastasis or more than 5 metastatic lesions or both). The survival curves of patients in different risk strata are displayed in Fig. 3B. According to the Pearson χ2 test, the subgroups only differed in chemotherapy regimens (p < 0.001, p = 0.004 in low-risk and high-risk subgroups respectively) (Table 3) and no significant difference was found in other clinical characteristics.
Table 3
The clinical characteristics of the patients that did RT and did not do RT in different risk stratifications.
|
Low risk
|
Intermediate risk
|
High risk
|
Characteristic
|
non-RT
|
RT
|
P value
|
non-RT
|
RT
|
P value
|
non-RT
|
RT
|
P value
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 47
|
15(44.1%)
|
69(52.3%)
|
0.445
|
20(41.7%)
|
42(46.7%)
|
0.595
|
52(49.5%)
|
48(53.5%)
|
0.567
|
> 47
|
19(55.9%)
|
63(47.7%)
|
|
28(58.3%)
|
48(53.3%)
|
|
53(50.5%)
|
41(46.1%)
|
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
28(82.4%)
|
110(83.3%)
|
1.000
|
34(70.8%)
|
75(83.3%)
|
0.124
|
93(88.6%)
|
74(83.1%)
|
0.304
|
Female
|
6(17.6%)
|
22(16.7%)
|
|
14(29.2%)
|
15(16.7%)
|
|
12(11.4%)
|
15(16.9%)
|
|
Smoking
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No smoking
|
22(64.7%)
|
70(53.0%)
|
0.250
|
28(58.3%)
|
53(58.9%)
|
1.000
|
59(56.2%)
|
46(51.7%)
|
0.565
|
Smoking
|
12(35.3%)
|
62(47.0%)
|
|
20(41.7%)
|
37(41.1%)
|
|
46(43.8%)
|
43(48.3%)
|
|
Family history
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No
|
31(91.2%)
|
113(85.6%)
|
0.425
|
44(91.7%)
|
83(92.2%)
|
1.000
|
95(90.5%)
|
81(91.0%)
|
1.000
|
Yes
|
3(8.8%)
|
19(14.4%)
|
|
4(8.3%)
|
7(7.8%)
|
|
10(9.5%)
|
8(9.0%)
|
|
T stage #
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T1-T2
|
4(11.8%)
|
24(18.2%)
|
0.451
|
9(18.8%)
|
17(18.9%)
|
1.000
|
16(15.2%)
|
13(14.6%)
|
1.000
|
T3-T4
|
30(88.2%)
|
108(81.8%)
|
|
39(81.3%)
|
73(81.1%)
|
|
89(84.8%)
|
76(85.4%)
|
|
N stage #
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N0-N1
|
9(26.5%)
|
35(26.5)
|
1.000
|
6(12.5%)
|
18(20.0%)
|
0.348
|
15(14.3%)
|
20(22.5%)
|
0.189
|
N2-N3
|
25(73.5%)
|
132(73.5%)
|
|
42(87.5%)
|
72(80.0%)
|
|
90(85.7%)
|
69(77.5%)
|
|
No. of metastatic organ
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
34(100.0%)
|
132(100.0%)
|
-
|
48(100.0%)
|
90(100.0%)
|
-
|
34(32.4)
|
37(41.6%)
|
0.232
|
> 1
|
-
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
|
71(67.6%)
|
52(58.4%)
|
|
No. of metastatic tumor number
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤5
|
34(100.0%)
|
132(100.0%)
|
-
|
48(100.0%)
|
90(100.0%)
|
-
|
15(14.3%)
|
19(21.3%)
|
0.256
|
>5
|
-
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
|
90(85.7%)
|
70(78.7%)
|
|
EBV-DNA(Copies/ml)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 25,000
|
34(100.0%)
|
132(100.0%)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
25(23.8%)
|
23(25.8%)
|
0.868
|
> 25,000
|
-
|
-
|
|
48(100.0%)
|
90(100.0%)
|
|
80(76.2%)
|
66(74.2%)
|
|
Chemotherapy regimens
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TPF
|
7(20.6%)
|
36(27.3%)
|
< 0.001
|
11(22.9%)
|
26(28.9%)
|
0.336
|
22(21.0%)
|
26(29.2%)
|
0.004
|
TP
|
5(14.7%)
|
36(27.3%)
|
|
10(20.8%)
|
20(22.2%)
|
|
21(20.0%)
|
29(32.6%)
|
|
PF
|
15(44.1%)
|
27(20.5%)
|
|
10(20.8%)
|
26(28.9%)
|
|
33(31.4%)
|
18(20.2%)
|
|
GP
|
5(14.7%)
|
3(2.3%)
|
|
4(8.3%)
|
6(6.7%)
|
|
9(8.6%)
|
0(0.0%)
|
|
others
|
2(5.9%)
|
30(22.7%)
|
|
13(27.1%)
|
12(13.3%)
|
|
20(19.0%)
|
16(18.0%)
|
|
4. Patients’ outcomes in different risk stratifications
We further investigated the differences in OS between patients that did and did not receive RT in each classification of risk. Interestingly, we found that not all patients benefited from RT. We found statistical differences in OS among patients in the low-risk and intermediate-risk subgroups (p = 0.039 and p = 0.010, respectively), whereas no significant difference was found in the high-risk subgroup (p = 0.076) (Fig. 4). Subsequently, we performed the Cox proportional hazards regression model for all subgroups (Table 4) and found that RT lowered the mortality risk for patients in the low-risk (HR, 0.490; 95% CI, 0.232–0.960; p = 0.042) and intermediate-risk subgroups (HR, 0.582; 95% CI, 0.357–0.947; p = 0.029); however, it did not affect high-risk patients (HR, 0.718; 95% CI, 0.499–1.033; p = 0.074). Regarding these patients, the mortality risk was higher for those who had multiple organs metastasis (HR, 1.518; 95% CI, 1.032–2.234; p = 0.034), whereas the presence of multiple (> 5) metastatic lesions or a pretreatment EBV DNA copies level above cutoff did not seem to worsen this risk (HR: 1.564, 95% CI: 0.955–2.562, p = 0.076; HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 0.745–1.707, p = 0.571, respectively).
Table 4
Multivariable analysis for patients prognosis in different risk stratifications.
|
Low risk
|
Intermediate risk
|
High risk
|
Characteristic
|
HR
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
HR
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
HR
|
95%CI
|
P value
|
Age (years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 47
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 47
|
1.311
|
0.724–2.375
|
0.371
|
1.403
|
0.870–2.262
|
0.165
|
1.051
|
0.745–1.480
|
0.778
|
Gender
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Female
|
0.486
|
0211-1.118
|
0.089
|
0.657
|
0.361–1.194
|
0.168
|
1.527
|
0.948–2.461
|
0.082
|
Smoking
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No smoking
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Smoking
|
1.219
|
0.665–2.235
|
0.522
|
1.130
|
0.693–1.843
|
0.632
|
1.266
|
0.883–1.816
|
0.199
|
Family history
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Yes
|
0.748
|
0.246–2.278
|
0.609
|
0.462
|
0.157–1.355
|
0.160
|
1.057
|
0.572–1.955
|
0.859
|
T stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T1-T2
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
T3-T4
|
0.723
|
0.349–1.499
|
0.383
|
1.110
|
0.605–2.036
|
0.737
|
0.843
|
0.526–1.349
|
0.475
|
N stage
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
N0-N1
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
N2-N3
|
2.318
|
1.098–4.891
|
0.027
|
1.051
|
0.589–1.875
|
0.867
|
1.367
|
0.860–2.175
|
0.186
|
No. of metastatic organs
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
-
|
|
|
-
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.518
|
1.032–2.234
|
0.034
|
No. of metastatic tumor
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤5
|
-
|
|
|
-
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
>5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.564
|
0.955–2.562
|
0.076
|
EBV-DNA(Copies/ml)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
≤ 25,000
|
-
|
|
|
-
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
> 25,000
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1.127
|
0.745–1.707
|
0.571
|
Chemotherapy regimens
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TPF
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
TP
|
0.717
|
0.294–1.749
|
0.465
|
0.770
|
0.386–1.537
|
0.459
|
0.818
|
0.500-1.341
|
0.426
|
PF
|
0.814
|
0.336–1.971
|
0.648
|
0.619
|
0.295-1.300
|
0.205
|
0.962
|
0.584–1.583
|
0.878
|
GP
|
0.922
|
0.379–2.241
|
0.858
|
0.925
|
0.486–1.759
|
0.812
|
0.700
|
0.417–1.174
|
0.176
|
Others
|
1.696
|
0.439–6.550
|
0.444
|
0.859
|
0.316–2.333
|
0.766
|
0.688
|
0.258–1.837
|
0.455
|
Radiotherapy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non-RT
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
Reference
|
|
|
RT
|
0.490
|
0.232–0.960
|
0.042
|
0.582
|
0.357–0.947
|
0.029
|
0.718
|
0.499–1.033
|
0.074
|