In the present study, we selected the key radiomic features among the large arrays of data extracted from CTVprostate in the pretreatment planning CT images and developed a two-feature radiomics signature that predicts the 6-year PFS in high-risk localized PCa patients who received EBRT as primary treatment with WPRT. Our models achieved high consistent predictive performance, as evinced in the average AUC of 0.76 and 0.71 in the training and testing cohorts respectively. Because planning CT used for EBRT is largely standardized and calibrated for dose calculation, the use of planning CT in radiomics can utilize its standard for the benefit of better reproducibility and robustness of the radiomics features (22). For application, patients with a rad-score lower than − 1.11 were more likely to experience 6-year PFS with satisfactory accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in both the training and testing cohorts. Predicting treatment outcome prior to treatment commencement would assist clinical decision making and patient management after primary treatment. With growing evidence that radiomics is powerful in risk stratification, it paves the potentials of personalized precision medicine.
The developed radiomics signature consisted of two texture features, namely the GLRLM Run Entropy (RE-GLRLMσ2mm) and SAE-GLSZM Small Area Emphasis (GLSZMσ4.5mm). RE-GLRLMσ2mm quantifies the heterogeneous texture pattern within the CTVprostate by representing the variations in allocation of run lengths and gray levels. SAE-GLSZMσ4.5mm measures the quantities of smaller-sized zones and fine textures within the CTVprostate by representing the distribution of consecutive voxels that share identical intensity values. As these two features bear positive weightings in our radiomic signature, with higher values of RE-GLRLMσ2mm and SAE-GLSZMσ4.5mm, the rad-score becomes higher and indicates that the CTVprostate of that patient exhibits a more heterogeneous 3-dimensional pattern. Simultaneously, a higher rad-score in our study implies a higher possibility of experiencing disease progression within 6 years after treatment. It is an advantage of using radiomics analysis which could effectively extract distinctive characteristics of the malignant mass and quantify respective heterogeneity, which is profoundly related to prognosis and therapeutic response for oncological diseases (25). Similar investigation has been done on other malignancies. These include breast cancer, which showed that a variety of texture features are correlated with angiogenesis and hypoxia, indicating the aggressiveness of the malignancy (26, 27); and nasopharyngeal carcinoma, which showed the capability of radiomics in predicting distant metastasis (28). Besides, previous study also suggested that more heterogenous PCa tumor exhibits greater resistance to therapies (29). This may explain why a higher rad-score is more predictive of disease progression in our study.
Biochemical failure or clinical failure after primary EBRT is not uncommon for PCa patients. It has been reported that biochemical failure would affect up to 40% of patients in 10 years after EBRT (30). About 25% of patients with biochemical failure would develop into clinical failure in 8 years with symptoms due to the recurrent disease (31). Many of the these patients would eventually be managed by palliative approaches by either observation or ADT (32). However, selected patients with biochemical failure or isolated local recurrence without coexisting metastatic lesions could be benefited from curative intent salvage treatments including salvage prostatectomy, brachytherapy, and stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), etc (33). Using our model with pretreatment identification of patients who are more likely to have disease progression after treatment, patients could be promptly followed up by the state-of-the-art imaging examination (34), thus increasing the chance of getting identified when salvage treatment would be feasible.
Prediction of failure has been of interest of researchers. Many prediction nomograms have been developed over the past decades, such as those for prediction of patients’ survival after radical prostatectomy failure (35), and metastatic patients (36, 37). In particular, a nomogram for prediction of 10-year biochemical recurrent-free survival in patients treated by EBRT was developed by Zelefsky et al. (38) The nomogram depended on pre-treatment PSA, GS, staging and treatment parameters such as radiation dose and use of ADT. It resulted in an accuracy of 72%, which can be compared to our radiomics model which achieved an accuracy of 77.8%. Radiomics can consider the texture, which is not able to be determined by traditional criteria. Texture might be a better biomarker for prediction purpose because prostate cancer is associated with significant intratumoral heterogeneity as discussed in the previous paragraph. Moreover, the selection of texture features in our model is in line with previous literature using MRI radiomics on predicting distant metastasis in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (39), and biochemical recurrence following EBRT in PCa (21). In addition, the usefulness of CT-based radiomics studies was indicated in perfusion-CT (40) and non-contrast CT (22) that texture features were useful for risk stratification in PCa.
Various limitations exist in our study. Firstly, it is a retrospective study with a limited number of samples (n = 64) recruited from a single center. Also, validation was done by randomly assigning a portion of the samples to create a testing cohort, which may not be able to ensure generalizability of the model. Thirdly, despite delineation protocol (41) is adopted, the segmentation of the volume of interest for radiomics features extraction was done manually by Oncologists. Semi-automatic tumor segmentation with computer assistance might be more suitable for segmentation in radiomics studies for yielding more reproducible features. However, this study was the first of its kind to utilize radiomics analysis methods on pretreatment planning CT of high risk localized PCa patient for long-term survival prediction, which is a major novelty of this study. Our study suggested the possibility of using radiomics signature as a potential biomarker for high-risk localized PCa patients using CT images, which are readily available for every PCa patients treated by EBRT. In future, MRI-based larger cohort multi-center study is warranted for bench-to-bedside model translation. In addition, this method could be further developed for assisting other clinical decision-making for this disease. One potential area of interest is to assist in choosing between WPRT versus PORT (42). In the present study, all patients underwent EBRT with WPRT. Although WPRT is believed to improve disease free survival, the increase of toxicity due to extensive irradiation volume to the gastro-intestinal tract is of concern (42). Moreover, due to the conflicting results of the two large-scale clinical trials by the RTOG 9413 group (14) and the French Genitourinary Study Group (GETUG)-01 group (43), hospitals may routinely offer PORT instead of WPRT for the same cohort of patients (44). It will be our next phase of the study to develop radiomics models for high-risk localized PCa patients treated with PORT. Therefore, a decision support system in choosing WPRT or PORT could be introduced by generating pretreatment prediction of disease progression with the two regiment respectively.