Data collection
The detailed methods have been described elsewhere16–18. Demographics and comorbidities were extracted from a chart review of patients’ electronic medical records by nephrologists. These included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, diabetes mellitus (DM), cardiovascular comorbidities, chronic respiratory diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchial asthma), a prior history of arterial catheterization (cardiac catheterization and endovascular treatment for peripheral artery diseases and carotid artery stenosis), and cholesterol embolism. Cardiovascular comorbidities included coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, aortic disease, and stroke (cerebral infarction or intracranial hemorrhage).
Time-series data on laboratory measurements and prescriptions were collected using an automated data extraction system of Osaka University Hospital. Laboratory data included serum albumin, creatinine, sodium, potassium, C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin, white blood cell (WBC) counts, and urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR). eGFR was calculated using the equation for the Japanese population19. The prescription data included loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), histamine H2 receptor antagonists (H2 blockers), and corticosteroids. We assessed the number of prescription drugs, not limited to those mentioned above. The time-series data were collected at a monthly interval during the study period.
We collected information regarding arterial catheterization performed during follow-up (cardiac catheterization and endovascular treatment for peripheral artery diseases and carotid artery stenosis); these procedures may have contributed to the development of eosinophilia via cholesterol embolism. These data were obtained from diagnostic procedure combination (DPC) codes20.
Study outcomes
The study outcome was RRT initiation, defined as the initiation of chronic dialysis or kidney transplantation. We additionally evaluated cardiovascular outcomes, which were a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and mortality. The dates of these clinical events were ascertained by a chart review of the patients’ electronic medical records by nephrologists.
A post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial of oral carbon adsorbent
To explore the involvement of uremic toxins in elevated eosinophil counts in CKD, we analyzed the data in a previous randomized controlled trial of the oral carbon adsorbent AST-12021, which reduces serum uremic toxin levels such as indoxyl sulfate. This two-year, open-label, randomized, controlled trial enrolled 125 patients with stages 3–4 CKD. Among them, 123 were randomized to either receive AST-120 (6 g/day) or not, in a 3:2 ratio. In this post-hoc analysis, data on eosinophil counts at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months were added to the original dataset.
Statistical analyses
The relationship between eosinophil counts and eGFR at baseline was depicted using a restricted cubic spline curve with three knots (10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of eGFR).
The multivariable association between log-transformed eosinophil counts and covariates was assessed by a linear regression analysis with robust standard errors. The following variables were included: age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, DM, cardiovascular comorbidities, a prior history of arterial catheterization, chronic respiratory diseases, ACEIs/ARBs, loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, MRAs, PPIs, H2 blockers, NSAIDs, number of drugs prescribed, hemoglobin, albumin, eGFR, CRP, UPCR, and WBC.
In the post-hoc analysis of the randomized trial of AST-12021, eosinophil counts were compared between the AST-120 and control groups using a linear mixed-effects model for repeated measures with an unstructured covariance matrix.
To analyze the longitudinal relationship between time-updated blood eosinophil counts and kidney outcomes, time-dependent confounding should be considered. This is because eosinophil counts increase as kidney function declines. As a result, time-dependent confounding could occur owing to a potential bidirectional relationship between eosinophil counts and kidney function in terms of the development of kidney failure. In order to appropriately account for time-dependent confounding, we used a marginal structural model (MSM). We also performed baseline Cox model, time-average Cox model, and group-based trajectory model (Fig. 1).
1) Baseline Cox model
Association between baseline eosinophil quartiles and outcomes was analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. The following baseline covariates were adjusted in this model: age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, DM, cardiovascular comorbidities, chronic respiratory diseases, a prior history of arterial catheterization and cholesterol embolism, hemoglobin, albumin, eGFR, sodium, potassium, CRP, WBC, UPCR, loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, MRAs, ACEIs, ARBs, NSAIDs, PPIs, and H2 blockers. The proportional hazards assumption was checked graphically based on the scaled Schoenfeld residuals.
2) Time-average Cox model
The average eosinophil count during the first 12 months of follow-up was calculated for each patient. Association between time-average eosinophil quartiles and outcomes was analyzed using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for the same covariates as in the baseline model. In this model, the onset of survival time was set at 12 months.
3) Group-based trajectory model
Group-based trajectory model was used to assess the association between eosinophil count trajectories during the first 12 months and subsequent rates of outcomes (STATA command, traj). All available data on eosinophil counts during the first 12 months were used to identify eosinophil count trajectories. In this analysis, the eosinophil counts were log-transformed to normalize their distribution.
The group-based trajectory model is a method of data clustering that assumes that a population is composed of a mixture of distinct groups characterized by their longitudinal trajectories22–25. Potential trajectory groups were estimated from individual longitudinal eosinophil data, using the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the finite mixture model theorem. The patients were divided into one of the trajectory groups according to their estimated probability of group membership. We selected the optimal number of trajectory groups, as well as a function of each trajectory, based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), with at least 5% of all patients being in the smallest group.
After deriving the eosinophil trajectory groups, multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between the trajectory groups and outcomes, adjusting for the same covariates as in the baseline model. In this model, the onset of survival time was set at 12 months.
4) MSM
MSM was employed to 1) assess the time-varying eosinophil counts throughout the study period and 2) deal with time-dependent confounding between eosinophil counts and eGFR.
MSM is a statistical method that can account for time-dependent confounding26–29. In the current study, eGFR was considered to be the main time-dependent confounder because it influenced both exposure (eosinophil counts) and renal outcomes, while being possibly affected by previous eosinophil counts. We derived time-varying inverse probability weights (IPWs) from the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs) and the inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCWs). IPTWs were the reciprocal of the predicted probability of each patient having their own exposure history (i.e., high eosinophil count or not). The probability was predicted by a logistic regression model at each of the 1-month follow-up periods, conditional on both baseline and time-dependent covariates, as described below. Two different definitions of high eosinophil counts were adopted: 1) eosinophil count ≥ 289/µL (the top 25th percentile in our cohort) and 2) eosinophil count ≥ 500/µL30. Similarly, IPCWs were the reciprocal of the probability of being uncensored, as predicted by a logistic regression model, conditional on both baseline and time-dependent covariates. IPTWs and IPCWs were stabilized by multiplying them with the predicted probabilities based on baseline covariates alone. The IPWs were the product of the stabilized IPTWs and IPCWs, calculated at baseline and for each month. The IPWs were truncated at the 1st and 99th percentiles to reduce the influence of extreme weight values.
Baseline covariates included were the same as in the baseline model. Time-dependent covariates included arterial catheterization performed during follow-up, hemoglobin, albumin, eGFR, sodium, potassium, CRP, UPCR, loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, MRAs, ACEIs, ARBs, NSAIDs, PPIs, H2 blockers, and corticosteroids.
MSM created “pseudo-populations” using IPWs, comparing the rate of events if all patients had been continuously exposed to high eosinophil counts with the risk of events if they had never been exposed to it. In MSM, there was no association between measured time-dependent confounders and future exposure. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using an IPW-weighted pooled logistic regression model that produced equivalent estimates to the Cox proportional hazards model.
Effect modification was evaluated by incorporating cross-product terms between eosinophil counts and a priori specified baseline covariates into the MSM, including age (< 70 vs. ≥ 70), sex, BMI (< 22 vs. ≥ 22), systolic blood pressure (< 130 vs. ≥ 130 mmHg), DM, cardiovascular comorbidities, hemoglobin (< 12.4 vs. ≥ 12.4 g/dL), albumin (< 3.8 vs. ≥ 3.8 g/dL), CKD stage (stage 3 vs. stage 4–5), UPCR (< 1.0 vs. ≥ 1.0 g/gCr), and ACEIs/ARBs use.
Missing data at baseline were imputed using the multiple imputations by chained equation method based on all baseline covariates. Continuous variables with missing data (BMI, systolic blood pressure, eGFR, hemoglobin, sodium, potassium, UPCR, albumin, and CRP) were imputed based on linear regression imputation. We created ten imputed datasets that were analyzed separately and combined using Rubin’s rules. Missing data during follow-up were imputed using the last-observation-carried-forward method.
Two sensitivity analyses were conducted. First, the association between eosinophil count and RRT initiation was assessed after excluding patients with chronic respiratory diseases or cholesterol embolism. Second, we reanalyzed MSM after excluding patients who were followed up for less than three months.
Statistical analyses were performed using Stata/IC software (version 16.0; Stata Corp, College Station, TX, USA).