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Research Article
Sanyi Tang
Corresponding Author
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Background COVID-19 is spreading in many countries around the world. Italy is the hardest hit in Europe and its number of new infections is still increasing. This study aims to evaluate the reason for the rapidly growing epidemic in Italy.
Methods We compared Italy’s data of outbreak and control measures with the province of Guangdong in China. Then, a modified SEIR model was applied to estimate the basic reproduction number. Finally, we utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy.
Results The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. Using a modified SEIR model, we estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculate the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Numerical simulations revealed that under a scenario in which very strict interventions are taken when the minimum contact rate is 1 with the exponential decreasing rate is 0.5 and the fast diagnosis rate is 0.5 with the exponential increasing rate is 0.5 (i.e. the test result will be available in two days). In this scenario, Italy will reach the peak (i.e. 23900) after 43 days.
Conclusion This study suggests that Italy is currently in a very serious epidemic status since control measures such as blockade of schools, isolation, medical supports and media coverage are not sufficiently timely and effective.
Keywords
COVID-19, Cumulative cases, Control measures, Model prediction
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept
On 19 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 01 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 31 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 31 May, 2020
Version 1
Posted 06 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 17 May, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 10 May, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 02 May, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 28 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 17 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 17 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Apr, 2020
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Comments: 0
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A new preprint design is coming!
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See the published version of this preprint at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Research Article
Sanyi Tang
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
View the published article at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
No community comments so far
Editorial decision: Accept
On 19 Jun, 2020
Editor assigned
On 01 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 31 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 31 May, 2020
Version 1
Posted 06 Apr, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 17 May, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 10 May, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 02 May, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 28 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 17 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 17 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 07 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 06 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 06 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 02 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 01 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published article at Infectious Diseases of Poverty.
Background COVID-19 is spreading in many countries around the world. Italy is the hardest hit in Europe and its number of new infections is still increasing. This study aims to evaluate the reason for the rapidly growing epidemic in Italy.
Methods We compared Italy’s data of outbreak and control measures with the province of Guangdong in China. Then, a modified SEIR model was applied to estimate the basic reproduction number. Finally, we utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy.
Results The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. Using a modified SEIR model, we estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculate the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Numerical simulations revealed that under a scenario in which very strict interventions are taken when the minimum contact rate is 1 with the exponential decreasing rate is 0.5 and the fast diagnosis rate is 0.5 with the exponential increasing rate is 0.5 (i.e. the test result will be available in two days). In this scenario, Italy will reach the peak (i.e. 23900) after 43 days.
Conclusion This study suggests that Italy is currently in a very serious epidemic status since control measures such as blockade of schools, isolation, medical supports and media coverage are not sufficiently timely and effective.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
The full text of this article is available to read as a PDF.
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