Background COVID-19 is spreading in many countries around the world. Italy is the hardest hit in Europe and its number of new infections is still increasing. This study aims to evaluate the reason for the rapidly growing epidemic in Italy.
Methods We compared Italy’s data of outbreak and control measures with the province of Guangdong in China. Then, a modified SEIR model was applied to estimate the basic reproduction number. Finally, we utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy.
Results The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. Using a modified SEIR model, we estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculate the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Numerical simulations revealed that under a scenario in which very strict interventions are taken when the minimum contact rate is 1 with the exponential decreasing rate is 0.5 and the fast diagnosis rate is 0.5 with the exponential increasing rate is 0.5 (i.e. the test result will be available in two days). In this scenario, Italy will reach the peak (i.e. 23900) after 43 days.
Conclusion This study suggests that Italy is currently in a very serious epidemic status since control measures such as blockade of schools, isolation, medical supports and media coverage are not sufficiently timely and effective.