6.1. Yellow River the locale of the Great Flood: problems
Although deeply rooted in the society, the belief that the Great Flood originating from the Yellow River is not supported by archaeological data. The Taosi settlement, as an important social/political center in northern China, might be a candidate of Yu’s hometown. However, the Taosi society was relatively small in area and declined rapidly, different from the image of the Xia Kingdom. Also, the Taosi settlement was built on a hill and the residents, with millet as staple food, did not live on river resources (and thus could have limited requirement for flood control). Moreover, the region where the settlement was located appear to have undergone droughts around the era of Yu, a climate condition not favoring the occurrence of the Great Flood.
As the social/political center and known by its notorious flood hazards in the recorded history, the YRP may be intuitively regarded as the locale of the Great Flood. However, archaeological data show that by 1700 BC, most parts of the YRP remained rarely inhabited (not even occupied by small settlements). Although as many as 16 cities arose after 2350 BC, they were relatively small, short-lived, and located only on the margins of the plain (Fig. 6d). We believe this limited human occupation reflected the active flooding/alluviation of the plain, which was unsuitable for habitation. Once ancient people settled down on the plain that were inactive for some generations, they put themselves at risk. The unpredictable nature of the floods caused by powerful channel avulsion could result in fatal hazards, as shown by the ruin of the Mengzhuang city. From this point of view, even if there are some undiscovered ancient settlements now buried in the YRP, as suggested by Kidder et al. (2012), they are unlikely to have been large.
It is noted that even nowadays, engineering measures to prevent or alleviate nature hazards are designed for relatively frequent but small-magnitude events, not for rare, unpredictable catastrophes. An implication here is that the flood (or floods) faced by Yu and its people was in fact significant in its (or their) frequency, duration, or position (i.e. near the habitation area), and thus may not be necessarily correlated to any specific high-magnitude rainfall/flood events recorded by stratigraphic or geomorphic evidence. For example, we argue that the Great Flood is unlikely to have been the catastrophic Jishixia outburst flood occurring along the upstream course of the Yellow River, even if this remote flood could have transmitted through multiple wide floodplains in the semi-arid Inner Mongolia Plateau to the YRP.
After the YRP became the social/political center (since ~ 1400 BC), the progressive growth of population must have led to an increase in occupation onto the plain, which inevitably increased the flood risk. Before dam construction in the modern times, building embankment has been the only solution for the floods on the YRP. This method, however, differs from that (dredging) depicted by historical texts to contain the Great Flood. The flood control on the YRP by embanking has barely succeeded. Given that even the troops of powerful Emperor Wu were defeated, it is unlikely that the people in the era of Yu, ~ 1800 years earlier than Emperor Wu, could have been capable of taming the Yellow River.
6.2. Jianghan plain the locale of the Great Flood
Archaeological data have shown that the rise of the Neolithic culture in East Asia, including the earliest settlement, rice cultivation, and subsequent city building, started in the Liyang Plain (Fig. 6). This culture spread out and eventually evolved into the Jianghan society, which was spatially the largest and had the greatest number of cities (and thus likely the most populated) in East Asia in the era of Yu (Figs. 6d and 7). Also, although having undergone rise and fall (Wu et al. 2017b), the culture of the Jianghan society continuously evolved into (and succeeded by) the cultures of the Panlongcheng (Shang), Yinshang Empire, and the Chu state in order (Fig. 1). All these regimes were influential, helping spread the account of the Great Flood and the deeds of Yu to descendants. In sum, we propose that the Great Flood occurred on the JHP and the Jianghan society was the social/political center of the Xia Kingdom. This in turn suggests that one of the largest cities in the Jianghan society was the hometown of Yu which he bypassed three times during his 13-year flood-control career.
Archaeological data also show that the people in the Jianghan society, like others residing around the Yangtze River and its tributaries, lived strongly on river resources such as rice growing, fishing, and shipping. As for the shipping, we propose that by the era of the Great Flood, the Yunmeng Lake remained large and its surrounding JHP had plenty of boatable distributary channels, similar to the area around the modern Dongting Lake. As the most efficient transport medium in ancient times, shipping helped unite people, which explains the reason why the Yangtze River, unlike the Yellow, has never formed a barrier against the spread and communication of people. Also, through digging large-scale moat/ditch systems (and maintaining them), the people in the Jianghan society already showed their capability in dredging channels, which was just the method used to regulate the Great Flood.
Modern and historical accounts have shown that unlike the YRP floods that are typically associated with dynamic sedimentation and channel avulsion, the floods on the JHP have the following two characteristics. First, parts of the floods, especially where they inundated the margins of the floodplain with stagnant or slow-moving water, are not powerful and thus could be controlled (or adaptable) by ancient people. An example of such mild flooding is shown at the Zhongqiao archaeological site. Unlike the Mengzhuang city on the YRP that was ruined by flooding, the Zhongqiao site only underwent minor deposition of muddy sediment during the three dated flood events and was reoccupied by people afterward (Wu et al. 2017a). Second, the floods on the JHP could be spatially predictable (Yu et al. 2009) (i.e. lower-lying areas were more likely to be inundated). This characteristic could rouse the awareness of flood risk and thus, flood management, in advance. Given these, we propose that the Great Flood was a series of relatively mild floods taking place along some small rivers crossing the northern part of the JHP. Here, the flood-control method depicted in historical texts, dredging channels to divert flood water, was feasible. Historical texts mention a “sea” as the ultimate sink of the flood water. We believe this “sea” was exactly the Yunmeng Lake.
6.3. The significance of the Great Flood
Why is the Great Flood so significant that its accounts deserve to go down in history? Our proposition that the flood impacted the Jianghan society, the then largest and most populated/civilized society, has provided an answer. The occurrence of the Great Flood also required a suitable climate condition, which is supported by the paleo-rainfall data showing that around the era of the Great Flood, the areas surrounding the JHP were characterized by relatively wet climate. However, notice that given the long-term climatic drying since the middle Holocene (Fig. 9), the Great Flood did not occur when the climate was the wettest, and there were certain periods before it (e.g., around 2350, 2850, and 3250 BC) that appear to have been wetter or characterized by greater or more frequent rainfall events (Fig. 9). Apparently, climate was not the major factor rendering the uniqueness of the Great Flood.
We propose that the timing and the impact of the Great Flood was strongly related to the expansion of the Jianghan society, a situation similar to the flooding on the YRP which has been known only after the significant occupation on the plain. Imagine that after developing for more than one thousand years, the Jianghan society encountered the population pressure and gradually expanded its territory toward the lower parts of the JHP, which was likely promoted by the shrinkage of the Yunmeng Lake (Guo 2005). People were attracted by the lands newly exposed, but after moving in, they unavoidably faced flood threats. A key perspective here is that the impact brought by the Great Flood, to a great extent, reflected the contemporary increase in human activities on the JHP. In other words, the account of the Great Flood was not simply an episode of a powerful flood (or floods) but a history documenting the struggle of an influential agriculture society in ancient China with fluctuating physiographical environments. This society survived and continuously developed afterward, with its epic flood-control achievement living on.
The establishment of the Xia Kingdom after the Great Flood has demonstrated the political significance of this natural disaster. Since then, devastating floods in the history of China have never been treated as crucially as the Great Flood. We believe this reflects the continuous increase in the social and economic diversity, and thus the resilience to natural hazards, of the Xia Kingdom and its successors. Also, notice the progressive increase in occupation on the JHP after the Great Flood. By ~ 400 AD, associated with the empty of the Yunmeng Lake, human habitation has approached major river channels such as the Han and the trunk Yangtze. This increase in land use must have significantly decreased the capacity of the JHP to contain flood water, which explains the reason why channel diversion has no longer been a primary method to regulate floods.
Finally, was the control of the Great Flood achieved by luck, as suggested by Wu and Ge (2005)? In fact, by virtue of the high-resolution speleothem records and their detailed chronologies (by the U-Th dating methods), we do find a significant decrease in precipitation (along with a decrease in the magnitude/frequency of rainfall events) after the Great Flood (Fig. 9). This climate drying, however, started at ~ 1850 BC, at least one hundred years after Yu. In other words, the flood-control works managed by Yu were effective for at least some generations, during which rainfall conditions (or flood magnitudes/frequencies) did not significantly change. We thus argue that even though the general lack of flood threats throughout the Xia Kingdom can be attributed to climate drying (e.g., Dalfes et al. 1997; Peiser 1998), it was the wisdom of Yu, and the efforts of the entire society, that tamed the Great Flood.