A Survey on some of the Global Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ever since COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, it has gained a lot of popularity. Within a span of two months, it managed to travel across the globe and affected more than a million people, resulting in several deaths. The World Health Organization recently declared COVID-19 as a pandemic over the number of cases registered by country. However, there is a lot more to just people being infected by the disease. Apparently COVID-19 has managed to disrupt businesses all over the world causing world panic. In this paper, some global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are identified and certain trends related to the same over the approximate time period of January 2020- March 2020 have been observed. The impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the travel and tourism industry and high tech product shipments have been analyzed. The study would assist the industries to prepare better for the global crisis and would assist them in contemplating specific scenarios in case of an epidemic or pandemic in the future.

important to anticipate what global impacts it may have and what all industries might be affected by its spreading. This paper presents how COVID-19 has spread across the globe as well as the various industries it affects like travel, tourism, shipment, etc by plotting trends for existing data. Further, trends to analyze the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to the pandemic have also been presented. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 lists the related works that have been done in the past related to COVID-19. In Section 3 the economic sectors that are believed to be the most affected by the pandemic have been presented. Section 4 takes into account the Experimental Analysis, while Section 5, highlights the Results and Findings. In section 6, Conclusion and Future Work are reported.

Related Work
In this section, some of the research works that have been done in the past for COVID-19 are presented. This is followed by a critical evaluation of the existing works so as to highlight the novelty of the proposed research work. ( Chinnazi et al, 2020 ) presented research on the effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. A global metapopulation disease transmission model has been taken into account for depicting the impact of travel limitations nationally as well as internationally. Since the cases have been listed from 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities might have already received several infected travelers. Modeling results also depict that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community. Based on the research it is expected that travel restrictions to COVID-19 affected areas will have modest effects. Moreover, transmission-reduction interventions may also assist in mitigating the epidemic. ( Qi et. al, 2020 ) conducted a large scale survey of the psychological distress among Chinese people due to the COVID-19 epidemic. The psychological distress may be attributed to the unprecedented strict quarantine measures in China. Due to this, a large number of people have been kept in isolation this has affected several aspects of their lives. Moreover, it has also triggered a wide variety of psychological problems, such as panic disorder, anxiety, and depression. The study provides certain recommendations for improving the mental situation of the patients. Some of the recommendations are paying more attention to vulnerable groups like the young, the elderly, women and migrant workers, and easy accessibility of medical resources and the public health service system for the patients. Nationwide strategic planning and coordination for psychological first aid during major disasters may possibly be established and a comprehensive crisis prevention system that incorporates monitoring, screening, etc could be built to reduce psychological distress and prevent further mental health problems. ( Heymann and Shindo, 2020 ) laid out some mitigation strategies in case COVID-19 affects a wider community. Close monitoring, continued evolution of communication strategies, intensive control for isolated patients and containment activities could be a few ways to ensure public health. Intensified active surveillance, preparation for the resilience of health systems and mitigation activities may also contribute to public health. Serological tests and continuous research are also necessary to prevent the pandemic. ( Gilbert et. al, 2020 ) performed a study to analyze the vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19. The study was conducted by taking into account the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. Preparedness and Vulnerability of the country were used as indicators to detect the vulnerability of the countries (WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index). It was found that Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa are the countries with the highest importation risk and they have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk are Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya. They have variable capacity and high vulnerability. ( Wong et. al, 2020 ) listed seven critical issues for the COVID-19 outbreak in Singapore that require coordinated attention and action. Better understanding regarding the modes of transmission, detailed travel and exposure history of the epidemic and identification of individuals who are at greater risk of the infection are some issues. Further, information on the effectiveness of agents and better communication ways may also be helpful. Healthcare professionals who care for COVID-19 patients could be under enormous stress, and therefore it must be taken into consideration. The development of an effective vaccine would definitely prevent the rampant spreading of the disease. ( Columbus et. al 2020 ) label COVID-19 as an emerging global threat in their study. The research provides a timeline of the epidemic and lists the number of cases confirmed, recovered and cases that resulted in the death of the patient. The clinical features of COVID-19 have also been mentioned in the article. It is suggested that diagnosis be performed by the RT-PCR analysis of upper respiratory, lower respiratory and serum samples. For infection control, a high level of vigilance and timely consultation are required. Patients must undergo isolations as part of the treatment. There are several unresolved issues pertaining to information regarding the virology, epidemiology, and transmission of COVID-19. ( Sun et. al, 2020 ) presented a study on COVID-19 based on current evidence. The study details that the source of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are related since both are zoonotic. The study also presents the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 related to incubation rate and fatality rate. The mechanism, symptoms, and diagnosis of COVID-19 have been mentioned along with the prevention and treatment. The study also mentions that pulmonary fibrosis may be one of the severe complications after patients recover from COVID-2019. ( Mustapha et. al, 2020 ) suggested some public health preparedness for the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria. Nigeria appears to be equipped with the technical and human resources required to diagnose COVID-19. A Surveillance and Outbreak Response Management System has been developed to treat patients diagnosed with COVID-19. ( Koh, 2020 ) presented a study on the occupational risks of the COVID-19. Since it is contagious, several occupational groups are at risk of being infected. Some groups that have been infected are domestic workers, tour guides, taxi drivers, casino workers, etc. These workers may be staff in the tourism, retail, and hospitality industry, transport and security workers, and construction industry. The crew on ships, healthcare professionals, ambulance drivers, etc. are also at the risk of getting infected. ( Gallego et. al, 2020 ) performed a study on the COVID-19 outbreak and its implications on the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Japan is believed to be the third most affected country after China and South Korea. It is expected that Tokyo will receive 20 million visitors (non-residents), to be attended by 70,000 volunteers of the games and 8000 for the city. 11,090 Olympic athletes would be participating in the event Also there will be 14 million food dishes to be served to the participants. All these conditions pose a major challenge for organizers, especially considering health security. Moreover, the relative position of the Yokohama port, where the cruise ship Diamond Princess is docked is very close to the venue of the Olympic Games. In this section, some of the prior work that has been done with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak has been listed. A critical analysis of the existing works was also presented so as to highlight the contribution of the proposed research work with respect to the already existing works. Some observations based on the related work as follows 1. Many research papers discuss the overall analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak and suggested several critical measures that could be taken into account for controlling its spread. While its implications on psychology as well as events like the Olympic Games were highlighted, the overall implication or global effects were not taken into consideration. Detailed research about the global effects of COVID-19 has been presented for the first time in the proposed research work. 2. Three important economy sectors i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GPD), Travel and Tourism Industry and High Tech Products shipment have been considered for the research. 3. Several research papers are similar to reports since they lack any experimental analysis or empirical study. In this paper, the global effects of the COVID-19 outbreak have been justified using several graphs. 4. The COVID-19 outbreak has been analyzed specific to locations like Japan, Nigeria, Singapore, etc. in the past. This research takes into account the effects of COVID-19 on a global scale. 5. The dataset used in this paper the latest and has more data, which gives a better analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak (January 22, 2020, to March 12, 2020)

Proposed Work
Since its identification in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread across the globe very quickly and has affected several continents. While the number of confirmed cases keeps on increasing, the pandemic has also vandalized other several industries. In this section, three sectors of the economy that are believed to have been affected due to the outbreak are taken into consideration. They are as follows: 1. Gross Domestic Product: The Gross Domestic Product is used to measure the value of economic activity within a country. It may be defined as the sum of the market values, or prices, of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a period of time. GDP may have several components to it. It may also be expressed as a number that explains the worth of the output of a country in local currency. It is one of the most common indicators for tracking the health of a nation's economy. Economists use GDP to determine whether an economy is growing or experiencing a recession. COVID-19 may have an impact on the global economy in three main ways: a. Direct impact on production: With the outbreak of COVID-19, Hubei province and other areas have been shut down which has an effect on the Chinese production of goods. Due to globalization, many countries may also have a direct impact. The slowdown in China has effects on exporters to China. China has exporters all over the world. Therefore even without any new outbreaks of the disease, these countries might experience slow growth in the first half of 2020. b. Supply chain and market disruption: China is the production hub for many goods and several manufacturing firms all over the world rely on imported goods from China and other countries that have been affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Sales in China also have an impact on the financial goals of several firms. With the economic activities and transportation restrictions, several firms and countries will be affected in terms of the production and profitability of manufacturing goods and raw materials. Companies that rely on intermediate goods may not be able to switch sourcing and may ultimately have to depend on the fading of the outbreak. This will slow down the production process and companies will suffer huge losses. Small and medium-sized firms may find it even more difficult to survive. Businesses tied to travel and tourism industries have been worst affected and may not recover anytime soon. c. The financial impact on firms and financial markets: Disruptions in the production of goods may be stressful for firms with inadequate liquidity. It may be difficult for traders to comprehend the firms that might be vulnerable. The resulting rise in risk may also lead to financial market players taking investment positions that are unprofitable under current conditions. This would definitely weaken trust in financial instruments and markets. As participants become more concerned about counterparty risk, there could be financial market disruption. There may also be a decline in equity markets and corporate bond markets due to the uncertainty created by the pandemic. Compared to SARS, COVID-19 has a much lower mortality rate, but it is more contagious. Hence, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about COVID-19.

High Tech Products:
With the largest concentration of electronics products assembled in China, the COVID-19 outbreak creates huge problems for the entire tech industry, which ultimately has global effects. Basic semiconductors and printed circuit boards (PCBs) to complete working systems like smartphones and laptops could be impacted by the pandemic. Cars and industrial applications may also be negatively impacted. Since China is the epicenter of technology manufacturing, the COVID-19 outbreak could have a devastating effect on the global smartphone market. Factory closures and delays in production might be there for an unknown period of time.
Production issues may also lead to replacement and servicing issues. There might be a drop in shipments. If the coronavirus outbreak situation worsens, many Chinese brands may face the same situation. Some companies may have to rely on overseas operations. As COVID-19 spreads to other manufacturing centers, non-Chinese companies must take preventative measures.
Electronic goods might need to be produced at different locations for supply if the situation does not improve.

Experimental Analysis
In the previous section, some economical sectors that might be affected due to the COVID-19 outbreak were considered. It included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the travel and tourism industry and high tech products that are needed all over the world. In order to justify the proposed claim, that the COVID-19 outbreak has an impact on these economic sectors, several graphs, and trends have been presented in the Results section. This section highlights the data gathered and what all trends are necessary to be presented for the research.

Trend Analysis
In the proposed section, it was mentioned how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected the globe in the form of Gross Domestic Products, Travel and Tourism Industry and High Tech Products. While only three economic sectors were listed, there may be multiple analyses to a given sector. In order to analyze the effect of COVID-19, the research will be relying on several graphs. Based on the datasets, a plot may be generated to show the number of cumulative cases of COVID-19 worldwide along with a heat map to depict the locations that have been affected the most. To review the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, certain plot graphs depicting real GDP growth, monetary global GDP loss and percentage change in GDP due to the outbreak may be shown. To depict the impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry, graphs depicting global travel and tourism revenue in 2019 and the impact of the pandemic for 2020, revenue of the travel and tourism industry in 2019 and the projected impact of the pandemic in 2020, by world region and travel and tourism industry revenue in selected countries, may be shown. The impact of COVID-19 spread on the aviation industry has also been considered. Finally, plots have been generated to show how global high-tech product shipments are impacted by the outbreak.

Results and Findings
In this section, some graph plots based on data from the multiple datasets used, have been generated. Based on the graphs several observations can be made.
5.1 Number of cumulative cases of coronavirus  worldwide from January 22 to March 12, 2020, by day As is evident, the above graph ( Fig.1 ) shows the number of COVID-19 cases over a time period of January 22, 2020, to March 12, 2020. Ever since its identification, the number of COVID-19 cases has increased significantly. Most than a million people have been affected. The above graph ( Fig. 2 ) is a heat map showing the locations of the COVID-19 outage. The intensity is determined by the color of the points. While yellow depicts low intensity, red depicts high intensity, therefore a higher number of COVID-19 cases. It can be observed that the outbreak has spread across all the continents (except Antarctica). Regions of Asia, Europe, and North America have several red dots manifesting higher intensity of the outbreak. The above graph ( Fig.3 ) depicts the forecasted global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in percentage due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.9 percent in 2019. It is forecasted that COVID-19 will cause the global real GDP growth to decrease by 0.5 percent in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 2.4 percent growth. The global real GDP growth is expected to increase in 2021.

Fig 4.
Graph depicting forecasted monetary global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to COVID-19 outbreak The above graph ( Fig. 4 ) depicts the forecasted monetary global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Three different scenarios have been used to make the forecast. The Best case scenario refers to a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Moderate case scenario depicts a three-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Worst case scenario depicts a six-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. In the best-case scenario in 2020, which is defined as a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand, the monetary loss of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to be about 76.7 billion U.S. dollars due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. In a worst-case scenario, defined as a six-month duration of travel bans, the global GDP is predicted to lose about 346.98 billion U.S. dollars.

Forecasted percentage change in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to COVID-19 outbreak in 2020
Fig 5 . Graph depicting forecasted percentage global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to COVID-19 outbreak The above graph ( Fig. 5 ) depicts the forecasted percent change in global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Three different scenarios have been used to make the forecast. The Best case scenario refers to a two-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Moderate case scenario depicts a three-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. The Worst case scenario depicts a six-month duration of travel bans and a sharp decline in domestic demand. For the best-case scenario in 2020, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to decrease by 0.09 percent due to the outbreak, while in a worst-case scenario, the global GDP is predicted to decrease by 0.4 percent. The above graph ( Fig. 6 ) depicts the global travel and tourism revenue in 2019 and how the COVID-19 outbreak has an impact on the same for 2020. The epidemic is believed to have a major impact on travel and tourism for at least six months according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The decreased demand for flights is in par with the reduced demand for leisure trips. From the graph, it can be observed that the global revenue for the travel and tourism industry in 2020 is estimated to be around 568.6 billion U.S. dollars. It seems to have decreased by 17 percent with respect to 2019. This is remarkably lower than the original 2020 forecast of around 712 billion dollars. The above graph ( Fig. 7 ) depicts the revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 by the world region. As is evident from the heat map ( Fig. 2 ) three of the continents that have been most affected by the outbreak are North America, Europe, and Asia. There has been a decrease in the revenue for all three continents due to the COVID-19 outbreak. For North America, the revenue has decreased by 9.4 %, while it has decreased by 16.18% for Europe. It is interesting to know that the first case was identified in China (Asia) and the decrease in revenue for Asia is 27.08%. The above graph ( Fig. 8 ) depicts the revenue of travel and tourism in 2019 and the projected impact of COVID-19 for the same. In Section 3, it was discussed how the travel and tourism industry might be affected due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Some specific countries taken into account are the United States, China, Germany, and Italy. As is seen here, the decrease in revenue for the United States is almost 10%, while for Germany and Italy the decrease is 10% and 24 % respectively. China seems to be affected the most with an expected 40% decrease in the travel and tourism revenue.

Fig. 9
Graph showing limited spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for the number of passengers The above graph ( Fig. 9 ) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route overlaps. An estimated 24 percent decline in the number of air passengers for Italy could be seen in this graph. As was mentioned in the proposed section, the COVID-19 outbreak has led to the lockdown of Italy. It is evident how the pandemic has affected the number of passengers flying across the globe. China, being the country with the most number of confirmed cases has suffered a 23% decline in the number of air passengers. The above graph ( Fig. 10 ) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route overlaps. China seems to have suffered the most in terms of passenger revenues at 22.2 billion US dollars followed by the Asia Pacific (excluding China, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea) which seems to have suffered a passenger revenue loss of 15.4 billion US dollars.

Fig. 11
Graph showing extensive spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for the number of passengers The above graph ( Fig. 11 ) depicts the limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on the number of passengers. The countries taken into consideration are the ones that have 100 or more confirmed COVID-19 cases. Revenue figures do not add up to the global total because of route overlaps. Group 2 (Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom) witnesses the worst decrease in the number of passengers at 24% followed by Group 1 (Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam) and Group 5 (Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates) at 23 % each. Canada and the United States witness a decline of 10% in the number of passengers while Asia Pacific (excluding other Asian countries mentioned here), and the middle east (excluding Group 5 countries) witness a decrease of 9% due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Fig. 12 Graph showing extensive spread impact of COVID-19 on the aviation industry for passenger revenue

Extensive Spread impact scenario of COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry based on Passenger Revenue
The above graph ( Fig. 12 ) 13 Graph showing a comparison of forecasts for global high tech product shipment impacted by COVID-19 outbreak The above graph ( Fig. 13 ) depicts a forecast of global high-tech product shipment impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak for the first quarter of 2020. The outbreak of COVID-19 is expected to influence the production and shipment of key technology products in the first quarter of 2020. As is evident there is a decrease in the shipment of all the global high tech products considered. The shipment of smartphones and video game consoles is expected to decline significantly by 10%. Televisions and Notebooks may witness a decline, at 4.5% and 12% respectively. Almost a 16% decline is seen for smartwatches due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
As suggested in the proposed work section, three economic sectors that may be impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak have been highlighted, i.e. Gross Domestic Product, Travel and Tourism Industry and High Tech Products shipment. Several graphs were presented to highlight how the COVID-19 outbreak has managed to travel across the globe and do more than just infect people. As is evident all the economic sectors taken into consideration have suffered due to the COVID-19 outbreak.
A comparative analysis of some existing works on COVID-19 has been presented to justify the proposed work. The comparative analysis is as follows ( Table 2 )

Conclusion and Future Work
The novel coronavirus or the COVID-19, which was first identified in Wuhan, China took only a couple of months to be declared an epidemic and was soon labeled as a pandemic after that. It has affected more than a million people over the world and the number of cases keeps on rising. The effects of the outbreak are not limited to this but are all seen in other spheres of life. Thus it has the potential to cause global effects. In this paper, three economic spheres have been identified i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Travel and Tourism Industry, High Tech Products shipment and COVID-19 outbreak is believed to have an impact on all three spheres. Using sufficient survey data, it has been justified how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected all these spheres, by plotting multiple graphs. Such outbreaks are sudden and may affect the globe sooner than anticipated. This study would be beneficial to industries and researchers to prepare better for such a global crisis and would assist them in contemplating specific scenarios in case of an epidemic or pandemic in the future.
The global effects do not end here. Due to globalization several industries are interconnected and interdependent. In the future, it would be interesting to observe the effect of COVID-19 on more such industries with an updated dataset.

Compliance with Ethical Standards
Funding: This research received no external funding.