Correlation between brain structure changes, changes in neuroinflammatory biomarker levels, and cognitive decline over 12 months
Among all individuals with an average age of 73.9 years, MMSE significantly decreased over the 12-month follow-up period (P < 2.2e-16). This significant decrease was also observed when focusing only on the AD and MCI groups (P < 2.2e-16 and P = 5.183e-13). The average MMSE decline in the AD group (2.47) was faster than that observed in the MCI group (0.67) over 12 months. We did not find a significant MMSE decline in the CN group only (P = 0.1732).
We analyzed baseline and 12-month data for participants to test for association between cognitive decline (as measured by MMSE changes) and alterations in brain structures. We found longitudinal alterations for 14 brain structures to be significantly correlated with changes in MMSE scores over the 12-month follow-up period (see Table 1). These brain structures included the ventricles, temporal lobe, cingulate gyrus, insula, and corpus callosum.
Table 1
Correlation between 12-month change in brain structure and cognitive decline
12-months
brain structure changes
|
12-months MMSE changes
|
R
|
P-value
|
Corpus callosum
|
0.1914801
|
1.54E-04**
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
-0.3564875
|
5.21E-13**
|
Left insula
|
0.259484
|
2.34E-07**
|
Left lateral ventricle
|
-0.398429
|
4.44E-16**
|
Left posterior cingulate
|
0.2596539
|
2.29E-07**
|
Left temporal lobe
|
0.2816901
|
1.79E-08**
|
Right bankssts
|
0.192511
|
1.41E-04**
|
Right inferior lateral ventricle
|
-0.3421819
|
4.82E-12**
|
Right insula
|
0.2240743
|
8.80E-06**
|
Right lateral ventricle
|
-0.4068034
|
0.00E + 00**
|
Right para-hippocampal
|
0.1897251
|
1.77E-04**
|
Right temporal lobe
|
0.239267
|
1.99E-06**
|
Third ventricle
|
-0.2699022
|
7.21E-08**
|
WMH (White Matter Hyperintensities)
|
-0.2951461
|
3.38E-09**
|
Note: *Nominally significant (p < 0.05); **Adjusted Significant based on Bonferroni correction (P < 0.0004) |
We performed pairwise correlation analysis for cognitive decline (as measured by MMSE changes) and changes in levels of plasma inflammatory biomarkers over 12 months. We found changes in the levels of 18 inflammatory biomarkers in plasma to be significantly correlated with changes in MMSE scores over a 12-month period (see Table 2).
Table 2
Correlation between 12-month change in inflammatory biomarkers and cognitive decline
12-months
inflammatory biomarkers changes
|
12-months MMSE changes
|
R
|
P-value
|
CD40L
|
-0.12447622
|
0.0122820830*
|
EGF
|
-0.11267933
|
0.0235110262*
|
EGFR
|
0.14092212
|
0.0045411686*
|
GH
|
-0.09986113
|
0.0448582464*
|
ICAM1
|
-0.10880476
|
0.0287667676*
|
IL13
|
-0.15482585
|
0.0018014050*
|
IL16
|
-0.13136531
|
0.0082006635*
|
IL18
|
-0.11601439
|
0.0196735462*
|
IL8
|
-0.15883339
|
0.0013601540*
|
MCP1
|
-0.11953830
|
0.0162225071*
|
MCP2
|
-0.11959212
|
0.0161741965*
|
MDC
|
-0.11096859
|
0.0257193907*
|
MIP1β
|
-0.15360962
|
0.0019592224*
|
NGAL
|
-0.12497164
|
0.0119377619*
|
SCF
|
-0.11536081
|
0.0203794662*
|
SOD1
|
-0.10161074
|
0.0412201779*
|
Sortilin
|
-0.16857804
|
0.0006683145*
|
TNF-a
|
-0.09885969
|
0.0470594145*
|
CD40 Ligand (CD40L), Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF), Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR), Growth Hormone (GH), Intercellular Adhesion Molecule 1 (ICAM1), Interleukin-13 (IL13), Interleukin-16 (IL16), Interleukin-18(IL18), Interleukin-8 (IL8), Monocyte Chemotactic Protein 1 (MCP1), Monocyte Chemotactic Protein2 (MCP2), Macrophage-Derived Chemokine (MDC), Macrophage Inflammatory Protein-1 beta (M
Genome-wide association studies of cognitive-decline-correlated changes in neuroimaging endpoints and inflammatory biomarker levels, and Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio
First, we investigated the genetic background of 12-month changes in neuroimaging endpoints as evidence of cognitive deterioration. As outlined above, we found that, over the 12-month follow-up period, changes in the structures of 14 brain regions were correlated with cognitive decline. We proceeded to interrogate whether specific genetic regions might be associated with brain structure changes for these 14 regions via GWAS. We identified nine brain regions with at least one genome-wide significant SNP underlying the brain structure change over the 12-month follow-up period (Table 3 and Supplementary Fig S1). We found that six brain regions, including four ventricles and the left and right temporal lobes, shared genome-wide significant hits in the APOE, APOC1, and TOMM40 (marginal significance) regions on chromosome 19 in the gene-based analyses. The WMH 12-month change GWAS identified SNPs in three loci that surpassed the genome-wide significance threshold. The ZFYVE20 gene was found to be significantly associated with WMH changes in the gene-based GWAS.
Table 3
Genome-wide association study of 12-month changes in neuroimaging that correlate with cognitive decline
SNP ID
|
Brain regions
|
CHR
(POS)
|
A1
|
P
|
BETA
|
Nearest Gene
Position (dis)
|
rs10225527
|
Corpus callosum
|
7(132320548)
|
T
|
3.63E-08
|
-5.416
|
PLXNA4/Intronic
|
rs12332072
|
WMH
|
4(65448932)
|
C
|
6.12E-10
|
416
|
RP11-63H19.1/ Intergenic (23203)
|
rs12721051
|
Left lateral ventricle
|
19(45422160)
|
C
|
4.75E-09
|
496.7
|
APOC1/Intronic
|
rs12721051
|
Right inferior lateral ventricle
|
19(45422160)
|
C
|
2.76E-09
|
66.9
|
APOC1/Intronic
|
rs141577243
|
Left posterior cingulate
|
11(14612726)
|
G
|
2.77E-09
|
-66.29
|
PSMA1/Intronic
|
rs146128209
|
Left posterior cingulate
|
11(14683683)
|
A
|
4.00E-08
|
-63.91
|
PDE3B/Intronic
|
rs429358
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
19(45411941)
|
T
|
5.28E-09
|
66.66
|
APOE/Exonic
|
|
Left lateral ventricle
|
19(45411941)
|
T
|
6.24E-09
|
486.8
|
APOE/Exonic
|
|
Right inferior lateral ventricle
|
19(45411941)
|
T
|
9.76E-09
|
64.75
|
APOE/Exonic
|
|
Right lateral ventricle
|
19(45411941)
|
T
|
1.02E-08
|
455.4
|
APOE/Exonic
|
|
Left temporal lobe
|
19(45411941)
|
T
|
3.90E-08
|
-434.3
|
APOE/Exonic
|
rs4420638
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
19(45422946)
|
A
|
2.71E-09
|
69.68
|
APOC1/Downstream (339)
|
|
Left temporal lobe
|
19(45422946)
|
A
|
7.49E-10
|
-485.4
|
APOC1/Downstream (339)
|
|
Right temporal lobe
|
19(45422946)
|
A
|
6.33E-10
|
-472.6
|
APOC1/Downstream (339)
|
rs56131196
|
Right lateral ventricle
|
19(45422846)
|
G
|
5.43E-09
|
475.2
|
APOC1/Intronic
|
rs61965256
|
WMH
|
13(75083849)
|
G
|
1.75E-08
|
1000
|
LINC00347/ Intergenic (34125)
|
rs6855535
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
4(103236295)
|
G
|
9.26E-09
|
81.83
|
SLC39A8/Intronic
|
rs6989456
|
WMH
|
8(123969957)
|
C
|
1.90E-08
|
377.7
|
ZHX2/intronic
|
SNP, single-nucleotide polymorphism; A1, minor allele; CHR, chromosome; Significant genome-wide association P < 5 × 10 − 8. |
Next, having identified 18 inflammatory biomarkers that also correlated with cognitive decline over a 12-month period, we proceeded to investigate the genetic background of these changes via GWAS (Table 4 and Supplementary Fig S2). GWAS for changes in the levels of CD40L, EGF, and NGAL identified at least one associated SNP that reached genome-wide significance. In the GWAS for CD40L, chromosome 4q SNPs reached genome-wide significance. The EGF GWAS revealed that SNPs in the chromosome 10q region surpassed the genome-wide significance level of association. Significant SNPs in the EGF-change GWAS can be mapped to the SORCS3 gene. SNPs in chromosome 2q exceeded genome-wide significance in the NGAL GWAS. Gene-based analyses did not reveal any additional genome-wide significant associations.
Table 4
Genome-wide association study of 12-month changes in inflammatory biomarkers and A42/A40 that correlate with cognitive decline
ββ
|
SNP ID
|
Phenotype
|
CHR
(POS)
|
A1
|
P
|
BETA
|
Nearest Gene
Position (dis)
|
rs1913012
|
CD40L
|
4
(132688307)
|
A
|
2.48E-08
|
0.2024
|
SNORA70/Upstream (987)
|
rs11192350
|
EGF
|
10
(106931314)
|
T
|
3.81E-09
|
0.3946
|
SORCS3/Intronic
|
rs77419187
|
NGAL
|
2
(235573908)
|
A
|
2.32E-08
|
0.1559
|
ARL4C/intergenic (168210)
|
rs11651351
|
Aβ42/Aβ40
|
17
(73966862)
|
T
|
1.57E-09
|
-0.05582
|
ACOX1/ Intronic
|
rs1538785
|
Aβ42/Aβ40
|
10
(128804888)
|
T
|
2.38E-08
|
-0.03828
|
DOCK/ ncRNA_intronic
|
rs685960
|
Aβ42/Aβ40
|
1
(239924486)
|
G
|
3.76E-08
|
-0.03891
|
CHRM3/ Intronic
|
rs113874038
|
Aβ42/Aβ40
|
2
(42076624)
|
A
|
3.82E-08
|
-0.05998
|
AC009413.2/ downstream (817)
|
SNP, single-nucleotide polymorphism; A1, minor allele; CHR, chromosome; Significant genome-wide association P < 5 × 10 − 8. |
Our GWAS for changes in the Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio over the 12-month period identified seven genome-wide significant SNPs in four loci (Table 4 and Fig S3). Four SNPs at the DOCK1 locus on chromosome 10q surpassed genome-wide significance. One SNP on chromosome 17q (at the ACOX1 locus), 1q (at the CHRM3 locus), and 2q (inter-genic region) exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold. Gene-based analyses did not reveal any additional genome-wide hits.
Testing for pleiotropy and concordance of genetic variants that underlie brain structure change vs inflammatory biomarkers and Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio
Next, we investigated whether there was evidence for pleiotropy and/or concordance among the genetic loci that we found associated with inflammatory and neuroimaging biomarkers and cognitive decline. Evidence of significant global pleiotropy was found between the genetic loci revealed by the GWAS for CD40L and those of the left inferior lateral ventricle GWAS (P = 0.037), CD40L and right inferior lateral ventricle (P = 0.03), CD40L and WMH (P = 0.002), EGF and Left Inferior lateral ventricle (P = 0.027), EGF and right inferior lateral ventricle (P = 0.04) EGF and WMH (P = 0.000999) and NGAL and left temporal lobe (P = 0. 019). More detailed results can be seen in Table 5, Supplementary Table S1 and Fig S4. We also found all paired inflammatory biomarkers and brain regions with significant global pleiotropy also have significant evidence of positive concordance (P < 0.001). Rs10206871 was identified to confer significant shared genetic risk on both inferior lateral ventricle and EGF and can be mapped to the enhancer of SERTAD2. We also found two SNPs (rs12071618, rs1403044519) have shared genetic effects on WMH and EGF; s12071618 is located in the LRIF1 gene on chromosome 1.
Table 5
Pleiotropy and Concordance results for Inflammatory biomarkers and brain regions.
Inflammatory biomarkers
|
Brain regions
|
Pleiotropy P-value
|
Pleiotropy CI
|
Concordance P-value
|
Concordance CI
|
Direction
|
CD40L
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
0.037*
|
0.0269–0.0505
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
|
Right inferior lateral ventricle
|
0.03*
|
0.0211–0.0425
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
|
WMH
|
0.002*
|
0.0186–0.039
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
EGF
|
Left inferior lateral ventricle
|
0.027*
|
0.0186–0.039
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
|
Right inferior lateral ventricle
|
0.04*
|
0.0295–0.054
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
|
WMH
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
NGAL
|
Left temporal lobe
|
0.019*
|
0.0122–0.0295
|
0.000999*
|
5.12e-05-0.00564
|
+
|
Note: *significant permutation P value < 0.05
|
The significant associations between inflammatory biomarkers and brain regions were replicated by LDSR analysis. The associations between CD40L, EGF, and WMH were nominally significant. Other paired inflammatory biomarkers and brain regions reached adjusted significance based on the Bonferroni correction (Supplementary Table S2).
Furthermore, we observed significant global pleiotropy of variants affecting the Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio and the left and right inferior lateral ventricles (P = 0.016, P = 0.000999, respectively), left insula (P = 0.002), corpus callosum (P = 0.000999), and left posterior cingulate (P = 0.000999). Among these brain regions, the two sides of the inferior lateral ventricles also have significant evidence of positive concordance with the Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio (P < 0.001, Supplementary Table S2). No single variant was identified with a significant shared genetic effect on the inferior lateral ventricles and Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio. Only the association between Aβ42/Aβ40 and the right inferior lateral ventricle was confirmed by LDSR (P = 0.049).
Conditional FDR to detect additional genetic loci for brain structure changes
We performed conditional FDR analyses to detect variants associated with brain structures after conditioning on inflammatory biomarkers or Aβ42/Aβ40 (Table 6). Five SNPs, including rs10206871, rs1313924, rs72806398, rs6001426, and rs12466903, were found to be significantly associated with the left inferior lateral ventricle when conditioning on the EGF or CD40L variants. We also revealed novel significant SNPs for WMH when conditioning on EGF or CD40L (Supplementary Table S3); rs12466903 was significant in both tests. When conditioning for the variants of the Aβ ratio, rs72806398 and rs72806398 were identified as associated to changes in the inferior lateral ventricle.
Table 6
Conditional FDR results to detect brain structure changes risk variants
Conditional
traits
|
Brain
regions
|
SNP
|
CHR
(POS)
|
A1
|
Nearest
gene
|
P-value
in Trait
|
P-value
in Brain
|
FDR
q value
|
EGF
|
Left
inferior
lateral
ventricle
|
rs1313924
|
4
(103375303)
|
A
|
|
0.025760
|
2.227e-07
|
0.01581*
|
rs72806398
|
16
(83487874)
|
A
|
CDH13
|
0.213100
|
2.811e-07
|
0.01581*
|
rs66626994
|
22
(39488481)
|
A
|
LOC101927202
|
0.394700
|
1.994e-07
|
0.01581*
|
rs6001426
|
22
(39488481)
|
A
|
APOC1P1
|
0.363600
|
7.494e-07
|
0.03161*
|
rs10206871
|
2
(65018564)
|
T
|
SERTAD2
(Enh5590)
|
8.508e-06
|
1.884e-03
|
0.02449*
|
|
WMH
|
rs12466903
|
2
(98330626)
|
C
|
ZAP70
|
0.6563000
|
1.164e-06
|
0.03927*
|
CD40L
|
Left
inferior
lateral
ventricle
|
rs1313924
|
4
(103375303)
|
A
|
|
0.1474000
|
2.227e-07
|
0.01274*
|
rs72806398
|
16
(83487874)
|
A
|
CDH13
|
0.3865000
|
2.811e-07
|
0.01274*
|
rs66626994
|
22
(39488481)
|
A
|
LOC101927202
|
0.3441000
|
1.994e-07
|
0.01274*
|
rs6001426
|
22
(39488481)
|
A
|
APOC1P1
|
0.4835000
|
7.494e-07
|
0.02547*
|
rs10206871
|
2
(65018564)
|
T
|
SERTAD2
(Enh5590)
|
1.967e-06
|
1.884e-03
|
0.02261*
|
|
WMH
|
rs12466903
|
2
(98330626)
|
C
|
ZAP70
|
2.930e-01
|
1.164e-06
|
0.03270*
|
Aβ42/Aβ40
|
Left
inferior
lateral
ventricle
|
rs72696804
|
14
(95106902)
|
C
|
SERPINA13P
|
4.454e-02
|
5.669e-07
|
0.03138*
|
|
Right
inferior
lateral
ventricle
|
rs72806398
|
16
(83487874)
|
A
|
CDH13
|
7.908e-01
|
2.811e-07
|
0.02275*
|
Note: *significant FDR q value < 0.05 |
Epistasis Analysis
Based on our findings, we hypothesized that Aβ42/Aβ40 acts on brain structure change via inflammation. Epistatic analyses were implemented to test for interactions between the Aβ42/Aβ40 and inflammatory biomarkers. We found two SNP–SNP epistatic interactions between the Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio and EGF: (1) rs11651351 and rs11192347; and (2) rs685960 and rs10206871. rs11651351 and rs685960 were lead SNPs in Aβ42/Aβ40 GWAS (Supplementary Table S4). rs11192347 was from the set of EGF GWAS-significant SNPs, and rs10206871 was a pleiotropy- and concordance-significant SNP. We also found epistatic interactions between a significant SNP from the Aβ42/Aβ40 GWAS (rs113874038) and a significant SNP from the NGAL GWAS (rs77419187).