Using daily precipitation data (1960–2019) from five meteorological observation stations in Lu’an City (China), this study analyzed the impact of various El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional precipitation. Results showed that precipitation in Lu’an City increased in intensity and became more dispersed temporally over the 60-year period. Such characteristics of precipitation were especially prominent in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Lu’an counties. In comparison with precipitation indexes of normal years, the annual total and maximum consecutive precipitation amounts increased in years with central Pacific warming. Additionally, the annual maximum numbers of consecutive days with/without precipitation were extended in years with eastern Pacific cooling, whereas the annual total and maximum numbers of consecutive days with precipitation were extended in years with eastern Pacific warming. Various ENSO events had distinct impact on rainstorms and 6-d consecutive precipitation. During ENSO years, the high-value centers of days with rainstorms and 6-d consecutive precipitation were distributed predominantly in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan. Flood hazards were more likely to occur during ENSO years with an extreme value of the rainstorm anomaly index, or during years with eastern Pacific cooling and central Pacific warming with an extreme value of the 6-d consecutive precipitation anomaly index. For improved flood relief in Lu’an City, particular attention should be paid to precipitation in years with such climatic extremes.
Research Article
Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation processes in the Dabie Mountains of China and their response to ENSO
https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2085198/v1
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ENSO event
Lu’an City
1960–2019
anomaly index
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the name given to fluctuation in the sea surface temperature and wind fields in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. From the oceanic perspective, ENSO manifests as El Niño and La Niña, which are periods characterized by unusually warm and cool surface water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, respectively. In the atmosphere, ENSO manifests as the Southern Oscillation, whereby surface air pressure rises over Indonesia and the western Pacific but falls over the eastern Pacific during El Niño, and vice versa during La Niña. Given the close relationship between El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, these two events are collectively defined as ENSO (Bjerknes 1966; Bjerknes 1969; Philander 1983; Trenberth 1997).
ENSO triggers extreme weather in many regions of the world (Zhang et al. 1996; Cole and Cook 1998; Andrews et al. 2004; Zhang et al. 2013; Villafuerte and Matsumoto 2015; Peng et al. 2018; Sein et al. 2018) that can lead to severe meteorological hazards and substantial economic losses (Zhang et al. 2007). The effects of ENSO are greatest in developing countries that depend on agriculture and fisheries, especially the Pacific Rim countries (Wang et al. 2000). Consequently, investigation of the impacts of ENSO on precipitation has become a popular area of research that has produced notable achievements globally (Wang et al. 2004; Chao et al. 2006). ENSO affects regional precipitation in Asia, Australia (Raut et al. 2014), and other parts of the world (Ropelewski and Halpert 1987; Huang and Wu 1989; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). Pan et al. (1983) found that in the year following an ENSO event, the East Asian summer monsoon is attenuated, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts southward and strengthens, and precipitation is enhanced in the Jianghuai area but reduced in North and South China. Despite the profound impact of ENSO on the East Asian monsoon and western Pacific subtropical high, the extent, duration, and intensity of its impact vary regionally (Ropelewski and Halpert 1989). Currently, understanding of the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon and the western Pacific subtropical high is incomplete, and the mechanisms via which ENSO influences the latter two systems remain unclear (Torrence and Webster 1999; Wang 2002).
Lu’an City is a prefecture-level city located in the western part of Anhui Province (China), commonly known as Western Anhui, which is an area typical of the Dabie Mountains region. The terrain of Lu’an City is high and steep in the southwest but low and flat in the northeast. Mountains and hills that comprise 65% of the land area of Lu’an City are distributed mainly in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Shucheng counties. Lu’an City, situated between the Yangtze River and the Huai River (31°01'–32°40'N, 115°20'–117°14'E), covers an area of 15,451 km2 and has a permanent population of 4.873 million people. Lu’an City is a traditional agricultural area that is subjected to frequent flood hazards because of the unstable monsoon climate and the complex mountainous topography. Despite certain research achievements in relation to this area (Zhao et al. 2019), a knowledge gap exists with regard to the impact of ENSO on regional precipitation. In the context of global warming, it is important to determine the impact of ENSO on the amount, intensity, and duration of precipitation in Lu’an City, and to elucidate the relationship between ENSO and the regional flood hazard. This study investigated the impact of ENSO on the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional precipitation in Lu’an City. The findings could have considerable theoretical and practical implications regarding the forecasting of regional-scale precipitation and flood hazards, and for guiding agricultural production.
This study used high-quality long-term daily precipitation data (1960–2019) recorded at five meteorological observation stations located in Huoqiu, Huoshan, Jinzhai, Lu’an, and Shucheng counties (Fig. 1). The precipitation indexes used in this study are defined in Table 1. ENSO event data (1960–2019) were retrieved from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Dataset of the Nino1 + 2, Nino3, Nino4, and Nino3.4 regions provided by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Smith et al. 2008).
Periodicity in the precipitation indexes was determined using Morlet wavelet analysis (Horel and Wallace 1981). Temporal trends in the precipitation indexes were studied using climate propensity rates, and the U test was used to test for significance. Spatial changes in the precipitation anomaly index were analyzed using ArcGIS v10.5 (ESRI Inc., Redlands, CA, USA). Calculation of the precipitation anomaly index (Dij) was in accordance with the method of Zhang et al. (2013):
1where \({\overline {P} _{PEij}}\) is the number of precipitation days in ENSO years with intensity (or duration) j at station i, and \({\overline {P} _{PNij}}\) is the number of precipitation days in normal years of intensity (or duration) j at station i. Using the method of Kim et al. (2009), ENSO events were divided into three types: central Pacific warming (CPW), eastern Pacific cooling (EPC), and eastern Pacific warming (EPW). The CPW, EPC, and EPW events that occurred during 1960–2019 are summarized in Table 2, which lists the year of onset of each ENSO event.
| Index | Description | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| ATP | Annual total precipitation amount | mm |
| ATD | Annual number of total precipitation days | day |
| MCP | Annual maximum consecutive precipitation amount | mm |
| MCD NCD | Annual maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation Annual maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation | day |
| Days with different precipitation intensity | Number of days with light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, and rainstorms | day |
| Days with different precipitation duration | Number of days with 2-, 4-, and 6-d consecutive precipitation | day |
| ENSO type | Years | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPW | 1969 | 1991 | 1994 | 2002 | 2004 | 2018 | ||||||||||
| EPC | 1964 | 1970 | 1971 | 1973 | 1975 | 1985 | 1988 | 1995 | 1998 | 1999 | 2007 | 2008 | 2010 | |||
| EPW | 1963 | 1965 | 1972 | 1976 | 1982 | 1987 | 1997 | 2006 | 2009 | 2015 | ||||||
3.1. Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation processes across Lu’an City
Temporal trend analysis indicated that over the past 60 years the mean amount of annual total precipitation (ATP) in Lu’an City was 1194.5 mm, which increased by 9.8 mm/10 years. The mean amount of annual maximum consecutive precipitation (MCP) was 170.09 mm, with a rate of increase of 3.78 mm/10 years. The mean annual number of total precipitation days (ATD) was 128.5 d, and it decreased by 1.74 d/10 years on average. The mean annual maximum number of consecutive precipitation days (MCD) was 9.52 d, with a rate of decrease of 0.082 d/10 years on average. The mean annual maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation (NCD) was 23.6 d, with a rate of decrease of 0.11 d/10 years on average. With respect to the spatial distribution of precipitation, ATP and MCP increased most prominently in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Lu’an counties. The largest decrease in both ATD and NCD was observed in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan, whereas MCD decreased most remarkably in Lu’an. In summary, ATP and MCP increased in Lu’an City over the past 60 years, whereas ATD, MCD, and NCD showed trends of decrease (the decrease in ATD at Huoqiu meteorological station passed the test of significance at the 0.05 level). Such changes contributed to the increased intensity and temporal dispersion of precipitation over Lu’an City, and these characteristics were most remarkable in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Lu’an counties.
Wavelet analysis (Fig. 2) revealed that the first, second, and third main periods of the precipitation indexes were as follows: 32, 14, and 3 years for ATP; 6–15 and 2–4 years for ATD; 6, 12–17, and 30–32 years for MCP; 10, 18, and 3–4 years for MCD; and 5 and 17–19 years for NCD. Among them, ATP in the 3-year period, ATD in the 2–4-year period, MCP in the 6-year period, MCD in the 3–5-year period, and NCD in the 5-year period were subjected to ENSO impacts (all passed the test of significance at the 95% level).
3.2. Changes in precipitation indexes across Lu’an City in ENSO years
The anomalies of the precipitation indexes in various ENSO years are presented in Fig. 3. During CPW years, ATP and MCP increased with anomaly indexes of 45% and 25%, respectively, whereas MCD and NCD were reduced with anomaly indexes of − 12% and − 5%, respectively. Conversely, MCD and NCD were extended in EPC years, whereas ATD and MCD were extended in EPW years.
3.3. Changes in precipitation intensity across Lu’an City in ENSO years
The anomaly index of different precipitation intensities was calculated by comparing the time series of the numbers of days with light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, and rainstorms between the years of various ENSO events and the past 60 years in Lu’an City. The U test was performed to test for the significance. Different ENSO events had minor impact on light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain, but had profound impact on rainstorms (Fig. 4). The anomaly indexes of light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain reached ± 30% only, whereas the rainstorm anomaly index reached ± 70%.
The rainstorm anomaly index was > 40% in three EPC years, including 1970 and 1975, which produced flood hazards in Lu’an City. During CPW years, such as 1991, the rainstorm anomaly index was very high at 125.5%, indicating a typical flood year in the study area. The rainstorm anomaly index was 21.4% in 1969, which was another flood year in the study area. During EPW years, the rainstorm anomaly index in 1972 and 1987 was 38.8% and 27.2%, respectively, with different degrees of flood hazards in the study area. In summary, various ENSO events had prominent impact on rainstorms, and Lu’an City was exposed to flood risk in the years with extreme values of the rainstorm anomaly index.
Spatial distribution and statistical analyses (Fig. 5, Table 3) revealed that the high-value centers of days with rainstorms were distributed in Jinzhai, Huoshan, Lu’an, and Shucheng during CPW years. In EPC years, the high-value centers were observed only in Lu’an. During EPW years, there were fewer days with rainstorms throughout the entire study area than in normal years; however, high-value centers still appeared in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan during the years with high values of the rainstorm anomaly index. Overall, the high-value centers of rainstorm days in various ENSO years were located primarily in the southwestern mountainous regions. Consequently, there was greater risk of flood hazards in Lu’an City during the years with extreme values of the rainstorm anomaly index.
|
EPW-heavy rain |
EPW-rainstorms |
CPW-heavy rain |
CPW-rainstorms |
EPC-heavy rain |
EPC-rainstorms |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
No. of stations with uptrend |
3 |
4 (1) |
3 (3) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
No. of stations with downtrend |
2 (2) |
1 |
2 (1) |
4 (1) |
3 (1) |
2 (1) |
| Values in parentheses are the numbers of stations that passed the test of significance at the 0.01 level | ||||||
3.4. Changes in precipitation with different duration across Lu’an City in ENSO years
The anomaly index of precipitation with different duration was calculated by comparing the time series of the numbers of days with 2-, 4-, and 6-d consecutive precipitation between the years of the various ENSO events and the past 60 years in Lu’an City. The U test was performed to test for the significance. The anomaly index of 2-d consecutive precipitation was below ± 20%, the anomaly index of 4-d consecutive precipitation was up to ± 40%, and the anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation reached or exceeded ± 70% (Fig. 6). These results indicate that the various ENSO events had strong impact on 6-d consecutive precipitation in Lu’an City.
The anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was > 20% in six EPC years, including the flood years of 1964, 1975, 1985, and 1998. Additionally, the anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was > 20% in three CPW years, one of which (1991) was a flood year. The anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was negative in 60% of the EPW years with no flood hazard. These results indicate that flood hazards tend to occur in EPC and CPW years with extreme values of the anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation.
Various ENSO events had regional impact on precipitation of different duration in Lu’an City (Fig. 7, Table 4). The high-value centers of days with 4-d consecutive precipitation were found in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Lu’an counties during CPW and EPW years. For the numbers of days with 6-d consecutive precipitation, the high-value centers appeared in the mountainous regions of Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Shucheng during CPW years, whereas in EPC years, the high-value centers were distributed only in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan. In comparison with normal years, there were fewer days with 6-d consecutive precipitation throughout the entire study area in EPW years, but high-value centers were still observed in Jinzhai and Huoshan during years with high values of the anomaly index.
In summary, owing to the distinct impact of various ENSO events, the high-value centers of days with 6-d consecutive precipitation were distributed predominantly in the high and steep southwestern mountainous regions. Lu’an City is at higher risk of flood hazards in EPC and CPW years with extreme values of the anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation and therefore this requires close attention.
|
CPW-2d |
EPC-2d |
EPW-2d |
CPW-4d |
EPC-4d |
EPW-4d |
CPW-6d |
EPC-6d |
EPW-6d |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
No. of stations with uptrend |
4 (2) |
2 |
2 (1) |
0 |
0 |
4 (2) |
3 (1) |
2 |
3 |
|
No. of stations with downtrend |
1 |
3 |
3 |
5 (3) |
5 (2) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
| Values in parentheses are the numbers of stations that passed the test of significance at the 0.01 level | |||||||||
1) During 1960–2019, the precipitation processes in Lu’an City were characterized by increased intensity and greater temporal dispersion. These precipitation characteristics were particularly distinctive in Jinzhai, Huoshan, and Lu’an counties. The most prominent rate of increase in ATP and MCP occurred in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan, corresponding to the largest rate of decrease in ATD and NCD. The largest rate of increase in ATP and MCP was coupled with the largest rate of decrease in MCD in Lu’an.
2) Both ATP and MCP increased in CPW years, while MCD and NCD decreased simultaneously. Conversely, MCD and NCD were extended in EPC years, whereas ATD and MCD were extended in EPW years.
3) Various ENSO events had distinct impact on rainstorms in Lu’an City, and the anomaly index of rainstorms reached ±70%. Flood hazards often occurred in years with extreme values of the rainstorm anomaly index; e.g., 1970, 1972, 1975, 1987, and 1991 were all flood years. The high-value centers of rainstorm days were distributed widely in Jinzhai, Huoshan, Lu’an, and Shucheng during CPW years, confined to Lu’an during EPC years, and present in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan during EPW years. Generally, the high-value centers of rainstorm days during various ENSO events were mostly found in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan. Consequently, Lu’an City was found to be more prone to flood hazards in ENSO years with extreme values of the rainstorm anomaly index.
4) The impacts of various ENSO events on 6-d consecutive precipitation were also considerable. The anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was >20% in six EPC years, including the flood years of 1964, 1975, 1985, and 1998. Additionally, the anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was >20% in three CPW years, including the flood year of 1991. The anomaly index of 6-d consecutive precipitation was negative in 60% of EPW years with no flood hazard. The high-value centers of days with 6-d consecutive precipitation were generally located in the southwestern mountainous regions of Jinzhai and Huoshan during various ENSO events. Therefore, flood hazards were more likely to occur in EPC and CPW years with extreme values of the 6-d consecutive precipitation anomaly index, which should receive close attention in relation to flood relief for Lu’an City.
5) Pan et al. (1983) suggested that ENSO events cause an abnormal western Pacific subtropical high that leads to abnormal rainfall in Jianghuai. Gu et al. (2009) highlighted that ENSO events cause abnormal atmospheric circulation over the mid–high latitudes of East Asia and an abnormal East Asian summer monsoon, which have stable and decadal impacts on precipitation in the Jianghuai area. This study found that ENSO events have distinct regional impacts on rainstorms and 6-d consecutive precipitation in Lu’an City. However, the mechanisms via which ENSO events influence the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation in Lu’an City need further study.
Statements and Declarations
Data availability
The precipitation data used in this study are available from the five meteorological observation stations (Huoqiu, Huoshan, Jinzhai, Lu’an, and Shucheng) in Lu’an City (China). ENSO event data were retrieved from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Dataset of the Nino1+2, Nino3, Nino4, and Nino3.4 regions provided by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Author Contributions
YMZ processed the data, performed the data analysis, and drafted the manuscript. WJS, TC, CMZ, YL, and FZ all made substantial and ongoing contributions toward the interpretation and discussion of the observations, in addition to the writing of the article.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to the Lu’an Meteorological Bureau for providing the daily temperature data for 1960–2019 recorded at the five meteorological observation stations in Lu’an City (China). This work was jointly supported by the Anhui Provincial University Natural Science Research Key Project (Grant No. KJ2020A0624) and the Anhui Provincial Quality Engineering Project (Grant No. 2020szsfkc0968). We thank James Buxton, MSc, from Liwen Bianji (Edanz) (www.liwenbianji.cn/), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.
Competing Interests
The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.
About the author
Zhao Yongmei (1964-), female, with research interest in climate changes and their effects. Email: [email protected].
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