This is a preprint, a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Research
Analyzing the Effects of Temperature and Human Movement on Malaria Disease Transmission Dynamics
Ganga Ram Phaijoo
Corresponding Author
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: Malaria disease is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Plasmodium parasites are responsible for the disease. Due to human movement from one place to the other, vector borne diseases like malaria are spreading rapidly throughout the world. They have become major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Changing temperature levels has significant impact on the life cycle, biting behavior and death rates of the mosquitoes which can transmit the disease.
Methods: A multi patch SEIRS - SEI deterministic compartmental model for malaria disease is developed to study the disease transmission dynamics. The impact of temperature and human movement in transmission dynamics is investigated. Both global and local basic reproduction numbers are computed for two patches in two patch setting.
Results: Disease free equilibrium is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable when the number is greater than unity. Numerical results show that the prevalence of the disease changes with the change in human movement rates between the patches; temperature affects the transmission dynamics of malaria disease.
Conclusion: The burden of malaria disease can be reduced by managing the host movement between low and high disease prevalent patches. The optimal temperature for malaria disease transmission is 25 °C.
Keywords
Malaria, Human movement, Temperature, Multi-Patch Model, Basic Re- production Number, Disease Free Equilibrium, Stability
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 10 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
Learn more about our company.
This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research
Analyzing the Effects of Temperature and Human Movement on Malaria Disease Transmission Dynamics
Ganga Ram Phaijoo
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 1
Posted 10 Apr, 2020
No community comments so far
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Background: Malaria disease is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Plasmodium parasites are responsible for the disease. Due to human movement from one place to the other, vector borne diseases like malaria are spreading rapidly throughout the world. They have become major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Changing temperature levels has significant impact on the life cycle, biting behavior and death rates of the mosquitoes which can transmit the disease.
Methods: A multi patch SEIRS - SEI deterministic compartmental model for malaria disease is developed to study the disease transmission dynamics. The impact of temperature and human movement in transmission dynamics is investigated. Both global and local basic reproduction numbers are computed for two patches in two patch setting.
Results: Disease free equilibrium is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable when the number is greater than unity. Numerical results show that the prevalence of the disease changes with the change in human movement rates between the patches; temperature affects the transmission dynamics of malaria disease.
Conclusion: The burden of malaria disease can be reduced by managing the host movement between low and high disease prevalent patches. The optimal temperature for malaria disease transmission is 25 °C.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF.