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Research article
Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model
Samuel Kiruri Kirichu
Corresponding Author
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This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Introduction: The COVID-19 disease has spread to over 200 countries and territories since the first case was recorded in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In Kenya, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 13th March 2020 and since then over five thousand cases have been confirmed as of 26th June 2020. In the same period, one hundred and forty four mortality cases had been recorded in the country. With the rapid changing situation, timely and reliable data is required for monitoring, planning and rapid decision making with an aim of reversing the already deteriorating situation (economic, health, learning among others) in the country.
Methods: The study used the exponential growth model to estimate the daily growth rate and the real-time-effective reproduction number. The study also estimated the naïve and the adjusted Case Fatality Rates.
Results: The naïve-Case Fatality Rate of 26th June 2020 which was the 106 day after the first case was confirmed in Kenya was estimated as 2.5% while the adjusted Case Fatality Rate with a lag of 2 days was estimated as 2.6%. The daily exponential growth rate was estimated as 0.22 while the real-time reproduction number as of 26th June 2020 was estimated as 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 – 1.29].
Conclusion: The daily growth rate and the real-time reproduction number indicated that the outbreak was still growing as of the time of analysis.
Keywords
COVID-19, Exponential Model
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This is a preprint. It has not completed peer review.
Research article
Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model
Samuel Kiruri Kirichu
Corresponding Author
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
History
CURRENT STATUS: Posted
Version 2
Posted 10 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
No comments provided
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
Subject Areas
Infectious Diseases
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
Introduction: The COVID-19 disease has spread to over 200 countries and territories since the first case was recorded in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In Kenya, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 13th March 2020 and since then over five thousand cases have been confirmed as of 26th June 2020. In the same period, one hundred and forty four mortality cases had been recorded in the country. With the rapid changing situation, timely and reliable data is required for monitoring, planning and rapid decision making with an aim of reversing the already deteriorating situation (economic, health, learning among others) in the country.
Methods: The study used the exponential growth model to estimate the daily growth rate and the real-time-effective reproduction number. The study also estimated the naïve and the adjusted Case Fatality Rates.
Results: The naïve-Case Fatality Rate of 26th June 2020 which was the 106 day after the first case was confirmed in Kenya was estimated as 2.5% while the adjusted Case Fatality Rate with a lag of 2 days was estimated as 2.6%. The daily exponential growth rate was estimated as 0.22 while the real-time reproduction number as of 26th June 2020 was estimated as 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 – 1.29].
Conclusion: The daily growth rate and the real-time reproduction number indicated that the outbreak was still growing as of the time of analysis.
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9