The Dynamics of Climate Change Science and Policy in Panama: A Review

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2234975/v1

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The Dynamics of Climate Change Science and Policy in Panama: A Review

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2234975/v1

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The local studies and reports indicate that the temperature of Panama has increased by approximately 1°C since the 1970s. More evidence shows a constantly rising sea level in the Guna Yala archipelago, coral bleaching on both coasts, and increasingly more frequent and extreme precipitation events throughout Panama. This study includes an analysis of over 400 scientific publications made by researchers from multiples centres and more than 20 Panamanian official reports due to Panama’s mandate and duties under the international climate accords. To summarise the results, the studies were gathered according to the climate change effects by Panamanian locations and analysed posteriorly using Rstudio and ArcMAP. The results indicate a significant increase in climate change research beginning in 2007. This study identified and examined the essential findings per hydroclimatic region, showing the trends, limitations, collaborations, and international contributions. Climate change research in Panama includes some of the longest-term meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and biological studies in the neotropics. The greatest number of identified climate change-related studies were conducted, at least in part, in the Barro Colorado Natural Monument located in central Panama. Other frequently used sites include Metropolitan Natural Park, Soberanía Park, the Panama Canal Watershed, and the Caribbean coast of the province of Colón and Bocas del Toro, primarily due to research carried out by Smithsonian Tropical Research-affiliated investigators. The tropical forests of Panama are some of the bests studied in the world, however, research has been concentrated in a relatively small number of locations and should be expanded to include additional areas to achieve a more complete and comprehensive understanding of how climate change will impact Panama in the future.

Panama

climate change

Barro Colorado Island

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Temperature

and Precipitation.

Due to its varied wealth of ecosystems and biodiversity, Panama is one of the most biologically important regions on earth. This variety is a consequence of its geological history and geographic location. The formation of the Isthmus of Panama began as early as 73 million years ago and was completed approximately 3 and 3.5 million years ago. It is considered a major geological event in the last 60 million years (O’Dea et al, 2016). The closure of the gap between North and South America had effects on the global climate, biodiversity and ocean currents (Graham, 1987), (Maier-Reimer et al, 1990), (Coates et al, 1992), (Murdock et al, 1997), (Haug and Tiedemann, 1998), (Jackson and Johnson, 2001), (Robertson et al, 2009), (Jackson, 2010), (Leigh et al, 2014) causing several new ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms that have influenced climate since the early Pliocene (Haug et al, 2001), (Schulz and Prange, 2005), (O’Dea and Collins, 2013). The closure of the deep-water circulation between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans created the present-day oceanographic conditions responsible for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related warming events and the accumulation of cold, superficial water throughout the eastern tropical Pacific (Manzello, 2009), affecting weather patterns, particularly in the tropics (Lachniet et al, 2004). Svitil (1996) proposed that the formation of the Isthmus of Panama modified oceanic currents that resulted in the cooling of the Arctic leading to the formation of the Greenland ice sheet around 3 Ma (29) and the establishment of repeated Pleistocene glaciations beginning at 2.6 Ma (Bartoli et al, 2005), which in turn led to the drying of northern Africa and which may have contributed to the evolution of Australopithecus, who eventually become Homo sapiens (Stanley, 1996).

Panama is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly ocean and atmospheric temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns and sea-level rise (Hobeika and Wagner, 2018), (Portner et al, 2019). During the last decades, regional and local studies (Aguilar et al, 2005), (Viguera et al, 2017), (Hidalgo et al, 2017), (Hannah et al, 2017), (Calvo-Solano et al, 2018), (Cavazos et al, 2020), (CEPAL et al, 2020) have reported a warming trend in the Central American region including Panama. Temperature data from Central Panama indicate an increase of approximately 1C since the 1970’s (Paton, 2019b). A 142-year precipitation record by the Panama Canal Authority (Paton, 2019e) shows a clear trend towards an increased frequency of both severe storms and droughts during the last 25 years. However, based on a high-resolution meteorological data set, Hidalgo et al (2017) found a cooling trend for western Panama near the border with Costa Rica. They did, however, report an increase in the average temperatures for Central America as a whole. Numerous publications show that precipitation patterns have changed significantly in Central America. Hidalgo et al (2017) identified significant positive precipitation trends for almost all Isthmus of Panama, with specific droughts in some places within the Central Region and Kusunoki et al (2019) found a significant increase in precipitation over the central and eastern region of Panama according to the future climate simulations for the period 2079 to 2099. The distribution of this precipitation is also predicted to change. (Imbach et al, 2018), for example, predicts an increase in the R90 extreme precipitation indicator for Panama’s Atlantic coast.

Calderón (2021) discuss how an increase in precipitation variability such as the intensification of droughts and the extension of the dry season could result in losses to the agricultural sector, decreasing drinking water availability, and negative effects on human health in Panama. Since 1987, the Panama Canal Watershed has experienced 8 of the 10 greatest 24-hour precipitation events, the two lowest yearly precipitation totals, as well as the driest 3-year drought (Paton, 2019e). In Central American and the Caribbean, these extreme precipitation events are associated with the El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (Enkíns Molieri, 1998) and the higher incidence of major Atlantic hurricanes. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlantic hurricane track database, Panama has never experienced a direct Hurricane landfall. However, Panama does experience the effects of close encounters which can result in periods of intense precipitation and high winds. Since 2000, four hurricanes have directly affected Panama causing severe, localized flooding: Hurricane Beta in 2005, Otto in 2016, Nate in 2017 and Iota in 2020 Cárdenas-Castillero (2021). Throughout all the 20th century, however, only the hurricanes Martha (1969), Irene (1971), and Cesar-Douglas (1996) directly affected Panama - an increase of 667 percent [4x5/3]

Most climate change studies related to Panama have been focused on Panama’s central region. Almost all the longest-term and highest quality climate and oceanographic monitoring data are also from this area. One area in particular, Barro Colorado Island (BCI) has been the focus of many of these studies. Located in the middle of Gatun Lake, BCI was created in 1913 when Gatun Lake was created as a result of the damming of the Chagres River as part of the construction of the Panama Canal, (Windsor, 1990). The creation of Gatun Lake flooded a large area of tropical forest, turning numerous hilltops into islands; the largest of these became BCI. In 1923, the 15 km² island became a natural reserve under the administration of what would eventually become the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI). In 1978, the five surrounding peninsulas were joined with BCI to create the Barro Colorado Nature Monument (BCNM) to which STRI was granted custodianship. The forests of the BCNM have become one of the most studied tropical forest ecosystems in the world, resulting in the publication of thousands of peer reviewed papers, primarily by researchers associated with STRI. Numerous publications from research on BCI describe the possible impacts of climate change on tropical ecosystems. These studies cover a wide range of topics including CO₂ sequestration, forest dynamics, plant growth, reproductive responses to climatic changes, above-ground biomass estimates, microbial biodiversity, among others. Slot and Winter (2017b) studied the photosynthetic acclimation to warming in tropical forest seedlings. Nottingham et al (2020) tested an experimental warming of tropical forest soils on BCI to observe soil carbon emissions under warming conditions. A 58-year study of invertebrate assemblages, especially moths from the family saturniidae has been used to assess the long-term effects of climate change (Basset et al, 2017) on insect populations. A 40-year census of Anolis lizard abundance data was used to study the linkages between population abundance and climate variables (Stapley et al, 2015). Moreover, Pollard (2013) estimated the CO₂ contribution from prokaryotes in tropical freshwater ecosystem to study their contribution to CO₂ into the atmosphere.

This paper reports the results of an extensive review of the available climate change literature associated with Panama. The Introduction (section 1) describes the reasons climate change research is relevant for Panama. The section 2 (Bibliographical sources and Methods section) describes the procedures and methods used to identify, select, classify, and analyse publications. The Results (section 3) summarizes the findings according to the three objectives described below. Finally, in the Discussion (section 4) the authors assess the results of the analysis as well as the current state of climate change research in Panama. The Discussion section is divided into three parts: Impact of climate change in Panamanian territory (subsection 4.1), The road to building climate change institutionality in Panama (subsection 4.2), and climate change research and public policy interlinkages (subsection 4.3).

To analyse the climate change literature for Panama, two main tools employed: Rstudio RStudio Team (2020) and ArcMap Redlands (2011). To carry out the analysis the authors used R language to generate a comprehensive mapping analysis of scientific literature. This mapping analysis approach was performed by tailoring the data base search to link scientific publications as building blocks. The analysis generates hypotheses which are direct links between two or more concepts or network nodes. The network emerges by aggregating the hypotheses from a set of articles in the reviewed domain. Geographic Information System (GIS), which Murray (2010) describes as a system of hardware, software and procedures designed to support geographical decision-making through the acquisition, management, manipulation, analysis, and display of spatially referenced information was used to plot essential information concerning to studies distribution on Panama. This paper aims to review the research on climate change carried out in Panama. The objectives of this publication are:

Identify climate change research studies related to Panama.
Summarize and discuss findings.
Appraise the contributions of climate change research to the understanding of the challenge in Panama, the shortcomings, and gaps of this research.

2.1 Study Area

Located between latitudes 9.5°N and 7°N and longitudes 77.28°W and 83°W, Panama constitutes the southern end of Central America. The isthmus separates the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean by only 60km at its narrowest point. Panama consists of 75,417 km² of land, 2,490 km of coastline, and is inhabited by 4.4 million inhabitants (Indec, 2020). The western half of Panama features a central mountain range known as the Serranía de Tabasará or Cordillera Central which contains the highest mountain in the country, the still active Volcán Barú. The eastern half of the country consists mostly of lowlands and several sets of moderate hills and mountains. There are extensive forests throughout the country, especially in the western highlands, the Panama Canal watershed located in central Panama, and the eastern most provinces of Darién and Guna Yala. The climate is mostly tropical maritime with two distinct seasons: one prolonged rainy season (April through November) and a short dry season (December through March). The exception to this is the western Caribbean coast where rain falls throughout the year. Average yearly precipitation ranges from approximately 1000 mm/year (Province of Los Santos) to almost 10,000 mm/year (estimated for some locations in the highlands of the Province of Bocas del Toro). Temperatures show very little variation throughout the year and are primarily determined by elevation ranging from an average of 25C in the lowlands to 15-20C in the highlands. The climatology of the country is determined by the interaction of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and Panama’s topographic features.

Panama is one of the wettest countries in the world (The World Bank, 2022) with an annual precipitation of 2,924 litters per m². It consists of 52 watersheds with rivers draining into both the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans (PNSH, 2016). Figure 1 illustrates the location of watershed throughout Panama.

To investigate geographical trends in climate change research in Panama, this review has divided the country into 6 hydroclimatic regions as defined by the Water Centre for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC, 2016). The regions are: Eastern Caribbean Region, Western Pacific Region, Pacific Central Region (Arco Seco), Central Region, Western Caribbean Region, and Eastern Pacific Region. The Eastern region consists of the Bocas del Toro Province, the Western Pacific region consists of the Chiriquí Province, west part of Veraguas Province and Coiba Natural Park. The region known as the Arco Seco (Dry Arch), is a drought-prone, Pacific coastal region in the central part of the country and has the lowest yearly, average rainfall in all of Panama. The Central region of Panama hosts over 64% of the population, including 9 out of the 10 largest metropolitan areas. The Eastern Caribbean Region consists of the Comarca of Guna Yala. The Eastern Pacific Region consists of the Darién Province, which contains one of the largest forest reserves in Central America. Figure 2 shows the location of the hydroclimatic regions.

The Central region of Panama is also the location of the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW). The PCW has an area of 2,982 km² distributed across 13 sub-basins - the largest by area and runoff being the Chagres River basin (Harmon, 2005a). Within the PCW are two of the country’s largest lakes, Gatun and Alajuela, both created as a result of the Canal construction. One of the most important locations for climate change research in Panama, the Barro Colorado Nature Monument (BCNM), is located in and around Gatun Lake. The BCNM consists of Barro Colorado Island (BCI) and five surrounding Peninsulas. In addition to the BCNM, the central region is the location of several other important climate change research sites including: the San Lorenzo and Panama Metropolitan Park canopy access cranes, Gamboa laboratories, Punta Galeta Marine laboratory, Naos Marine and Molecular laboratory, the Agua Salud Panama Canal Watershed Project, and Pipeline Road. In addition, the area hosts dozens of long-term research plots located across the Isthmus. Figure 3 shows the location of Barro Colorado Island Monument.

Climate change research in Panama and the region has been greatly facilitated by the existence of the exceptionally high-quality climate and physical oceanographic data collected by the Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (ACP - also known in English as the “Panama Canal Authority”) and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI). The ACP maintains a network (at time of writing) of 68 precipitation and 14 meteorological stations in the Panama Canal Watershed. Precipitation data begin as far back as 1880 at the oldest stations. STRI maintains a total of 9 meteorological stations and 3 coastal marine monitoring sites, all but 2 located in Central Panama. Detailed climatic descriptions from the STRI and ACP climatic monitoring stations can be found on the STRI Physical Monitoring Program Website https://biogeodb.stri.si.edu/physical monitoring. Additional climate data are available from Panama’s national meteorological service which is managed by the Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica (ETESA) and whose website is https://www.hidromet.com.pa/es/

2.2 Bibliographical sources

This paper is based on an exhaustive review of the scientific literature, including articles in scientific periodicals, technical journals, chapters in edited volumes, and official Panamanian government reports deliver to the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These publications were initially identified via searches in bibliographical databases using Scopus, Google Scholar, Smithsonian Institute online library, Panama University online library, Technology University of Panama online library, and National Library of Panama web site. This research was conducted using the following standardised queries “Impact of Climate change on Panama”, “Barro Colorado Island”, “Panama Canal watershed”, “Arco Seco”, “Corredor Biológico Centroamericano”, “Corredor Marino del Pacífico Este”, “Darién”, “Bocas del Toro”, “Escudo de Veraguas Island”, “Coiba Island”, “Punta Galeta”, “Chiriquí”, “Climate change Mesoamérica”, “PILAS”, “Región Biológica del Chocó”, “Parque Natural Metropolitano”, “Parque Nacional Soberanía”, “Agua Salud Panamá”, “Golfo de Chiriquí”, “Golfo de Panamá”, “Guna Yala”, and “El Nino–Southern Oscillation ENSO”.

Documents included in the database were analyzed using the following protocol:

Bibliographic queries using the terms and keywords listed above performed.
Abstracts from publications obtained in step 1 reviewed to appraise relevance to this analysis
Relevant publications classified according to their hydro-climatic region.
Relevant publications read in order to determine the nature of the research involved and to summarize the findings.

2.3 Methods

Publications were classified according to hydro-climatic region and analyzed by the authors through ArcMap (Redlands, 2011), and R studio (RStudio Team, 2020). All publications were evaluated using four criteria: number of publications per year, local impacts, international contribution, and international collaboration. Documents from three sources were used: Scopus, Google Academic and official reports from the Government of Panama. R-studio was employed to evaluate research evaluation by generating graphical summaries. In addition, ArcMap was used to plot research locations in Panamanian. Figure 4 shows the review analysis workflow.

2.3.1 Geographic information systems analysis

A geographical information system (GIS) is a computer program or set of programs that stores, manipulates, analyses, and displays data referenced in space and time. The ESRI ArcGIS module, ArcMap, was used to visualize climate change location data (objective 3). This tool allowed the authors to map relationships between investigators from non-Panamanian universities and institutes carried out in collaboration with local Panamanian partners and STRI. The input data were obtained from authors tables distribution results. The geographic distributions of climate change research associated with Panama were visualized using a world shape file obtained from https://tapiquen-sig.jimdofree.com/english-version/free-downloads/world/ and shapefiles of Panama district boundaries (https://stridata-si. opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/panama-district-boundaries-2016/explore? location = 8.417343%2C-80.100508%2C8.16), watershed boundaries (https://www.sinia.gob.pa/index.php/datos-abiertos-y-geoservicios), and precipitation classification boundaries (CATHALAC, 2016). Data were added to ArcMap using the Editor tool. The number of publications per country as well as international collaborations were added. Upon completion of the attribute table, a colour palette and quantity symbol table were assigned. Figure 5 shows the GIS analysis workflow.

3.1 Scientific production

Research specifically designed to investigate the impacts of climate change in Panama began in the 1980’s. However, numerous long-term studies that have proved useful for climate change research, began at BCI and Galeta as early as 1972. Scientific climate change publications were gathered (objective 1) using the Scopus, Google Scholar, Smithsonian Institute online library, Panama University online library, Technology University of Panama online library, and National Library of Panama web site. In addition to the publications obtained from those sources, more than 20 official Panamanian government publications were identified. Figure 6 shows the scientific publications and the Panamanian official reports per year.

The greatest number of identified climate change-related studies were conducted, at least in part, in the BCNM, Panama Canal Watershed (outside of the BCNM), and Guna Yala territory. Other frequently used sites include Metropolitan Natural Park, Soberanía Park, and the Caribbean coast of the province of Colón and Bocas del Toro. Climate change research in the BCNM studies have primarily focused on the effects of climate change on tropical forests. Studies have examined the response of tropical tree species to drought, variability of soil CO₂fluxes from tropical forests into the atmosphere due to global warming. Table 1 shows the list of research concerning climate change in Panama.

3.2 Geographic Distribution of Climate change research

Table 1 lists all publications organized by hydroclimatic region. Climate change research varies widely between hydroclimatic regions both in quantity and research focus. Studies in the Western Caribbean region have been focused primarily on vulnerability, mitigation, and adoption of best practices as measures of climate change adaptation. In the Western Pacific region, however, climate change research has focused primarily on coral bleaching; initially due to the major 1982/3 and 1997/8 El Niño, and then later on the effects of climate change on watershed and water managements. Research in the Arco Seco region has primarily focused on the impact of droughts on cereal crops such as rice and corn. Subsequently, research in the regions has been centred in water availability and climate change adaptation in La Villa and Santa María watersheds (Larsen, 2019), (Romero et al, 2019).

By far, the majority of climate change publications have been based on research carried out primarily in the area of Central Panama. This can be attributed to the almost 100-year presence of Smithsonian Institution research in this region, as well as research and monitoring carried out by the ACP in the PCW. Climate change research in this region includes some of the longest-term meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and biological studies in the neotropics. In addition, there have been a wide range of short and medium-term investigations including behavioural, physiological, ecological and ecosystem services responses to climate change. The scientific literature resulting from these studies have significantly contributed to our current understanding of how tropical ecosystems may respond to climate change and increased levels of CO₂. One project in particular, the Agua Salud Panama Canal Watershed Project, has been instrumental in helping to guide National governmental and Panama Canal Authority policies related to forest protection and regeneration as a means of managing water resources (Aylward and Watershed, 2002), (Ogden et al, 2013), (Rodr´ıguez Guerra, 2016) and mitigating some of the effects of climate change.

The Central region has also been important for marine studies as well. Although there are sea level data from multiple locations in Panama (MillanOtoya, 2015), (Simmonds et al, 2017), the ACP tide stations at Pacific (Balboa, Panama City, currently active) and Atlantic (Colon City, inactive) entrances of the Panama Canal, are the most important, both in term of data quality and duration. STRI has one active station on Isla Colón, Bocas del Toro, and one inactive station at Punta Galeta. The Central and Western Pacific regions have the greatest number of studies related to marine coastal ecosystems including mangroves, corals, and sea grass. One the largest marine studies in all of Panama was the Galeta Oil Spill Study (Jackson et al, 1989), (Keller and Jackson, 1991) (Guzman et al, 2020). This project investigated the impacts of one of the largest recorded coastal oil spills in the neotropics on intertidal mangroves, sea grasses, algae, corals, and associated invertebrates (Jackson et al, 1989).

Concerning the east regions of Panama, climate change research in Eastern region includes estimations of methane emissions, and the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems and indigenous peoples (Potvin and Mateo-Vega, 2013), (Holmes et al, 2017), (Mateo-Vega et al, 2017). The Chucunaque river watershed has been one of the subjects of the government climate change-related study (PNUMA and ANAN, 2011). Moreover, the Eastern Caribbean region has the highest number of sea level rise studies. This region is projected to be one of the most affected because of the flooding and eventual loss of numerous low-lying islands due to sea level rise. Figure 7 shows the number of studies per location.

3.2.1 Projected effects of climate change in Panama

The fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (Imbach et al, 2018) predicts that mean annual air temperatures for Panama will increase from 0.5ºC to 1ºC by 2035, 1ºC to 1.5ºC by 2065, and 1.5ºC to 2ºC by 2100 based on the RCP4.5 scenario according to HadGEM2-ES global climate model. The First National Communication on Climate Change (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 2000) forecasts reduced runoff in watersheds in the Arco Seco region and the Chagres River; these watersheds are critical for supplying fresh water to several cities and towns in the area, accounting for over 40% of Panama’s population. Panama’s Azuero Peninsula has been identified as the region with the greatest vulnerability to the effects of climate change due to predicted increases in desertification (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 2000), salinisation of aquifers, increased precipitation variability and higher temperatures. A model based on Arco Seco air temperature data for the period 1980 to 2009 predicts an increase in minimum temperatures of 0.55°C by 2040, 0.83°C for the 2050, and 1.11°C by 2060 Graell (2019).

Climate modelling by Aguilar (2021) predicts that temperatures in Panama, especially night-time minimum temperatures, will increase. Data from STRI and the ACP show that air temperatures have increased by approximately 1ºC in central Panama since the 1970’s (Paton, 2021b). According to the IPCC report, ocean temperatures are also expected to increase due to global climate change. Data collected by STRI in the Caribbean indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) have increased by 1.1ºC at Punta Galeta on the Atlantic side of Panama. Data from the Bay of Panama on the Pacific side, however, show no discernible increase in SST temperatures (Paton, 2019c). Coral reefs are highly susceptible to increased temperatures. Many large-scale bleaching events have been associated with extreme El Niño related-ocean heat events in Panama (Claar et al, 2018). Since the 1990’s, numerous researchers (Glynn and D’croz, 1990), (Glynn, 1991), (Glynn, 1993), (Glynn, 1996), (Shulman and Robertson, 1996), (Podest´a and Glynn, 2001), (Glynn et al, 2001), (Manzello et al, 2008), (Neal et al, 2014), (Neal et al, 2017), (Stranges et al, 2019), and (Randall et al, 2020) have studied coral reef deterioration on both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Panama.

Panama’s Pacific coastal coral reefs provide an ideal laboratory to study the influence of ENSO-related oceanographic variability on coral-reef ecosystems, the most significant source of inter-annual climate variability across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Randall et al (2020) demonstrated a significant increase in sea-surface temperature in both the Gulf of Chiriquí and the Gulf of Panama. Both gulfs have warmed approximately 0.6°C over the last 100 years. The major El Niño events of 1982/3 and 1997/8 have been associated with coral bleaching and mortality throughout the tropics. In this same line Glynn et al (2001) documented the bleaching and mortality of zooxanthellate corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí and Gulf of Panama following the 1997–98 El Niño. Coral mortality following the 1982/3 El Niño was notably higher (52–97%) compared to the 1997/8 event. Randall et al (2020) showed that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates following the last major El Niño in 2015/6 were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panama than in the Gulf of Chiriquí. Chiriquí gulf corals showed extensive bleaching however, the strong seasonal upwelling of cold water in the Gulf of Panama appears to have allowed the corals largely to escape thermal stress.

Climate change in Panama has also an important impact on protected areas. Panama has 72 protected zones, which some of them are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Matusagaratí lagoon in the eastern region is highest impacted by the temperature increase, precipitation variability, and the land use modification. Chagres watershed, in the Central Region is an essential basin to keep the water circulation inside the Panama Canal watershed and to generate drinking water for Panama City. This basin has been affected in the last decade for the temperature and evapotranspiration increase, heavy storm, and deforestation. Other sensitives protected area is the Coiba Island and the Parque Internacional La Amistad (PILA) where the marine ecosystem is strongly affected by the variability of temperature and precipitation. The Figure 8 shows the protected areas throughout Panama.

3.2.2 Panama Canal watershed

The most important hydrological feature in the country is the Panama Canal watershed. In 2021, 13,342 ships moved 516.7 million Panama Canal tons through the Canal. Approximately 6% of global trade passes through the Canal. International shipping is a significant contributor to global climate change, accounting for approximately 3.3% of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) across all sectors. The Panama Canal helps to significantly reduce emissions by providing a short-cut for shipping between Asia and the Eastern United states. The new Canal expansion, describe Mulligan and Lombardo (2011) and Bittner et al (2012), is projected to reduce annual CO₂emissions of U.S. East Coast–Asia trade by an additional 1.4 billion kg/year by 2025, a reduction of 2.69%.

3.2.3 Barro Colorado Island (BCI)

For almost 100 years, Barro Colorado Island (BCI) and the surrounding peninsulas which make of the BCNM have been the focus of a wide range of research activities that have contributed to over 13,000 scientific publications, including the greatest number of Panama-based, climate change-related studies. The first climate change publication based on research carried out in Panama was published in 1990 by Howe (1990) who evaluated factors influencing growth and survival of V. surinamensis to try to identify possible drivers behind the declining population of this species on BCI. Results of this study showed that V. V. surinamensis survival rates are affected by physical and biological factors, mammalian seed predation, as well as climate - particularly seasonal drought. Howe (1990) proposed that a long-term drying trend from 1930 to 1980 observed on BCI and described by (Windsor, 1990), as well as the record setting 1982-1983 El Niño-related drought, reduced V. V. surinamensis suvivorship.

Research on BCI includes the effects of forest degradation, fragmentation, climate change and its effects on tropical species occurrence. CamposCerqueira et al (2021) documented changes in the populations of 50 bird species over 17 years. Results from this study show that populations of most bird species in the older forests on BCI are currently stable. However, Wright (2020) indicates that subsequent losses from BCI include 27% of bird species but just 6% of butterfly species. Also, Pollock et al (2022), long-term monitoring reveals widespread and severe declines of understory birds in a protected Neotropical Forest, say that there has been a 50% decrease in bird populations in Parque Nacional Soberan´ıa.

Kupers et al (2019b) observed that 31% of 63 tree species showed a significant growth or survival response to shade or drought. Yanoviak et al (2020) report that lightning is an important and previously underappreciated cause of tree damage and mortality in old-growth, lowland tropical forest. Lighting is predicted to increase as a consequence of global warming. Windsor (1990) documented a long-term drying trend between 1930 and 1980 on BCI. Precipitation data collected by the Panama Canal Authority and STRI since 1990, however, show that this long-term trend was a statistical artifact of the long-term, decadal-length oscillations in precipitation in the PCW. Paton (2021a) reports differences of up to 20% between the wettest and driest decades, and not overall, long-term trends. Cárdenas Castillero (2021) also did not observe any long-term trends in precipitation in the Panama Canal Watershed and the City of Panama between 1900 and 2016.

3.2.4 Panamanian Government Research

The international relationship concerning climate change began in the 1990s, precisely in 1995, when the Panamanian government ratified the Kyoto Protocol. From the first ratified law on climate change, Panama has remained vigorous in assessing its natural resources. This energetic action resulted in 1999 in the first national reports in Latin America following the GEO methodology (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 1999). This report prepared by the National Environment Authority (ANAM) today, Ministerio de Ambiente (MiAmbiente), covers the state of the nation’s environment, environmental policies, and the impact of multilateral environmental agreements and conventions. However, climate change is seen as a remote possibility that Panama has entered into agreements and laws. Later, in 2000, ANAM presented the first National Communication on Climate Change for Panama (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 2000). This report was the first stage in the process of incorporating the issue of global climate change into national development planning. Consecutively, in 2004, the Panamanian authorities presented the second GEO document, which reports the need to strengthen actions for sustainable management of natural resources (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 2004).

Despite the efforts made for GEO 2004, the issue of climate change was considered an emerging theme, lacking at that time sufficient national technical information for its proper evaluation. Subsequently, in 2009, Panama presented the Third State of the Environment Report (Autoridad Nacional de Ambiente, 2009), in which climate change is highlighted as one of the main events threatening human well-being. Panama’s report identifies changes in rainfall patterns, extreme weather events and droughts. In this report is identified on the territory one of the most effected places by sea level rise. Five years later, the Fourth (Autoridad Nacional de Ambiente, 2014) State of the Environment Report In four of the five stations, the records show, at a glance, that the decade average of the accumulated annual precipitation has increased in the last three decades, with differences in the rate of increase. Regarding temperatures, analyzed at specific stations such as David and Los Santos, the maximum temperatures show an increase of approximately one °C for the study period from 1971 to 2012. While for the maximum temperatures, the slope of the trend to increase is minimal.

The decade of 2010 for the Isthmian territory represented the bonanza of regionalized studies. These studies are focused on climate change effects in different watersheds throughout Panama (Sanjur Palacios, 2010); (PNUMA and ANAN, 2011); (ANAM, 2014); (MiAmbiente, 2020). Panama’s government has published studies on current and future water availability as part of its long-term water resource management strategy and climate change mitigation and adaptation plans (Miambiente, 2020). The Ministry of Environment (Ministerio de Ambiente) has authored several publications on adaptation and water resource management between 2010 and 2022, focusing on the Santa Maria and Chiriquí Viejo watersheds (ANAM, 2014). A vulnerability and adaptation study for the Chiriquí Viejo watershed includes climate model predictions for an increase in precipitation under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios and an increase in the duration of the dry season. MiAmbiente (2020), summarizes a climate change vulnerability study for the Santa Maria watershed. The report includes climate model predictions of a decrease in average precipitation of 18% based using the RCP 2.6 scenario. (Sanjur Palacios, 2010) reports on a study of the Tabasará and Chucunaque watersheds focused on climate change vulnerability, climate change adaptation and mitigation. (CATHALAC, 2019) investigated water resources’ resilience to climate change for the La Villa watershed. Based on 11 global circulation models, they predict more humid conditions during the dry season, lower rainfall during the rainy season, and a more intense mid-summer drought. Other watersheds that have been subjects of climate change impact studies include the Santa Maria River, La Villa River, Chiriquí Viejo River, Chagres River, and Chucunaque River (Espinosa et al, 1997), (PNUMA and ANAN, 2011).

3.3 Trends and limitations

3.3.1 Trends

Climate change research trends in Panama have varied through time. Since 1990, climate change research has increased markedly in forest ecology and plant physiology. Studies tropical forest responses to increased CO₂, temperature, and precipitation variability. Trends also follow areas such as the effects of climate change on tropical tree communities, the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on parasites Chaves et al (2014), potential resilience of biological communities to accelerating rates of global change, water resource availability in Panama under scenarios of climate change-induced increased temperature and precipitation variability Espinosa et al (1997), as well as increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) emissions from tropical wetlands and their impact on temperature (Sjögersten et al, 2018).

Paton (personal communication) reports several climate trends on BCI. Since 1972, average daily temperatures have increased by 1°C - with night-time temperatures increasing approximately 2°C. The 96-year precipitation record for BCI show no significant overall changes in average yearly precipitation. However, there have been significant increases in the frequency of large storms and exceptionally dry years. These effects are consistent with climate change predictions described in the 2018 International Panel on Climate Change special report Global Warming of 1.5ºC, and the World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Climate 2020. In addition to the climate data available for BCI, since 1880, the Panama Canal Authority has monitored precipitation throughout the Panama Canal watershed. This high-quality data set represents a uniquely valuable precipitation record for the entire region.

Other climate change-related studies include hydroclimatic scenarios for Panama (Fábrega et al, 2013), the impact of climate change on UNESCO cultural heritage sites in Panama (Ciantelli et al, 2018), greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the expansion of the Panama Canal (Mulligan and Lombardo, 2011), climate change scenarios on agriculture (Ruane et al, 2013b), (Collado et al, 2018), (Hobeika and Wagner, 2018), and carbon mapping for resource management and REDD+ (S. et al, 2008).

3.3.2 Limitations

The limitations identified in objective 2 have varied over time. The analyses of this study show that the large majority of climate change research has been carried out by, or in cooperation with, STRI and a small number of local non-governmental organizations. This fact highlights that a strategic, government-led climate change research program has not existed in Panama. Furthermore, climate change research in Panama is hampered by a lack of long-term, good quality environmental monitoring data outside the area of the Panama Canal Watershed. Aguilar (2021) points out that many locations in Panama do not possess weather information with continuous data for more than 30 years; this represents a significant barrier to the performance of climate change modelling. In remote locations, such as indigenous territories, there little or no data available.

The state of oceanic data is worse. Except for sea surface temperatures, there are no oceanic data sets of greater than 15 years duration for Panama. Many important variables such as salinity, dissolved oxygen, acidity, chlorophyll, and turbidity have been consistently measured, but for fewer than five years and only at two locations: Bocas del Toro and the Bay of Panama. All these monitoring activities are being carried out by STRI.

Sea level data, one of the most important ocean-climate change related parameters, is currently only available in Panama for the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal, Isla Colon in Bocas del Toro, and the island of Porvenir in San Blas. Only the latter two meet current international standards. Of the three, only the Panama Canal tide gauge has enough data to estimate sea level rise. It is also the only publicly available source of government funded, sea level data.

Only a few of Panama’s terrestrial and marine ecosystems, have long-term monitoring plots established. One of the longest running tropical forest monitoring programs in the world is located on Barro Colorado Island. STRI and the ACP have established a multitude of monitoring plots throughout the Panama Canal Watershed. Other STRI monitoring sites include the highlands of the province of Chiriquí (Fortuna), Parque Nacional Metropolitano, and the San Lorenzo protected forest. However, there are many other forest areas, especially mangroves, which have few or no long-term monitoring plots at this time. Equally, only a few marine ecosystems such as corals and sea grasses are being monitored, and only in a small number of locations.

Many of the areas with the lowest number and variety of monitoring activities are also the home of the most vulnerable human communities, especially true for Panama’s indigenous peoples. Not having actionable information in these areas inhibits the possibility of taking proper adaptation measures and preparing for the changing climate.

The main limitations for climate change research in Panama are limited government support, very limited research carried out by local universities (strongly tied to limited government funding), and lack of trained researchers. Furthermore, the concentration of academic institutions and research activities in the central part of the country has resulted in a majority of university led research focusing primarily on the same region. As a result, most other regions of the country are chronically understudied.

3.4 International cooperation for climate change research

The first international cooperation related to climate research in Panama was the Compagnie Universelle du Canal Interocéanique de Panamá which gathered the first temperature and precipitation data in Panama as part of the French led Panama Canal construction between 1880 and 1900. Subsequently, during the construction of the canal between 1904 and 1914 under the administration of the United States hydro-meteorological monitoring throughout the country was greatly expanded. The designation of BCI as a “Natural Park” in 1924, paved the way for the foundation of what would eventually become the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. Since its creation over 100 years ago, BCI has hosted tens of thousands of scientists and students from hundreds of academic institutions from across the planet and has been the subject of thousands of scientific publications. Due the easy access to the island, the availability of high quality, long-term environmental and biological monitoring, the longest running, large-scale tropical forest monitoring plot, BCI and the surround area has become a world-class centre for studying how tropical forests how climate change will impact tropical forests.

International collaborations efforts have tripled during the period 2010 - 2020, compared to the previous 20 years. This trend is likely to continue as researchers increasingly view Panama as a good location to study climate change phenomenon such as the response of tropical forests to climate change, coral reef bleaching, and carbon negativity. Our analysis shows that the greatest number of tropical forest scientists are affiliated institutions from the United States. Following the United States, leading country affiliations are Australia, Germany, Austria, Spain, Taiwan, the Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. Figure 9 shows the connection between Panama and other countries.

Most international collaboration has been done through the Smithsonian Institution on Barro Colorado Island. The United States appears as the largest international collaborator; this was initially due to the American presence throughout the 20th century as the absolute authority in the administration and total control of the Panama Canal Zone^[1], facilitating studies by scientists from universities in the United States. While Panamanians were denied the right to be part of this academic community.

According to figure 9, different European states have contributed to the study of climate change, doing research from Panama. Part of these studies use Panama’s data and are applied in programs developed by the universities and laboratories. For example, basset 2017 gathered institutions from different countries, such as the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama; the University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic; Universidad de Panamá; Czech Academy of Science, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic; University of Edinburgh, CNRS Université Montpellier, Univesrsité PaulValéry EPHE SupAgroMontpellier INRA IRD, Montpellier, France; Institut de Systématique Evolution, Biodiversité, Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France and, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, United States. All these institutions are studying the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Collaboration with the Latin American region integrate different topics research. The impact of climate change on tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue has been one of topic considered during for the region as an emergent health problem. Through the Latin American Malaria Research Centre (CLAIM) in a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru (Herrera et al, 2012). It is also the case that foreign universities collaborate using measured data in Panama, as is the case of universities in China and Taiwan, together with universities in the United States, have carried out studies to understand how temperatures affect microbial biodiversity, particularly in the terrestrial soil. Other collaborations have been done by universities from Australia have focused on ocean warming and seas and their impact on coral bleaching in Panama.

Among the latest and more important international collaboration than Panamanian government has done started in 2015. At this time, most of the nations of the world expressed the support for the Paris Climate Agreement, a landmark public polices commitment to accomplish global carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The Paris Agreement require countries to verify the status of the balance of CO₂and other greenhouse gases. This task triggered the discovery of Panama’s CO₂balance as negative, a condition only in 2 other countries, Bhutan, and Suriname, share in the planet. The notion of carbon negativity implies that a given country sequesters more CO₂and other greenhouse gases than the amount that is released to the atmosphere. This was measured through the national greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory of Panama for the years 1994 to 2017, including the Energy, Industrial processes, and product use (IPPU), Agriculture, land use, land-use changes, forestry (LULUCF), and Waste sectors (Miambiente, 2021). The GHG balance of the year 2017 was represented by 72.2% of CO₂it means -15,867.8 kt CO₂eq, decreasing the overall GHG absorption of the country by 17.9% since 1994 and by 10.2% since 2013. It is followed by CH₄with a 21.6% (4,740.8 kt (CO₂) eq) increasing by 34.9% since 1994 and decreasing by 2.0% since 2013. The contribution of N₂O is 4.2% 914.6 kt CO₂eq increasing by 20.5% since 1994 and decreasing by 3.0% since 2013. Lastly, the HFC represented 2.1% (454.1 kt (CO₂) eq), increasing significantly by 1,024.4% since 2012 and 290% since. It should be noted that the first HFC records have been held since 2012, which is why 2012 is used to make the comparison instead of 1994. The increases concerning 1994 are due to the growth of emissions in the activities of the Energy, IPPU and Waste sectors. However, those GHGs that reflect a decrease compared to 2013 are mainly due to the decrease and slowdown in the agriculture sector.

¹Established in 1903 under the provisions of the Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty, the Canal Zone was a 10-mile-wide US-administered territory established with the explicit purpose of supporting the eponymous canal as an operational area and geopolitical buffer zone. Upon its establishment, the Canal Zone split the nascent Republic of Panama in two, running from the city of Col´on at the canal’s northern (Caribbean) entrance to Panama City to the south (Pacific). Within the Zone, an American-style company town flourished, providing workers with access to social and cultural amenities and subsidised housing and shopping (Sigler, 2016).

4.1 Impact of climate change in Panamanian territory

Until the late 1980s, most studies designed to comprehend the effects of global warming were not specifically identified as climate change research. Interest in climate change research in Panama began during the 1980s when Dietrich (1982) analyzed rainfall variation on Barro Colorado Island (BCI). Studies related to the consequences of the major 1982/83 El Niño event stimulated scientific interest in the effects of climate on terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Panama. Until the end of the 20th century, most tropical biologist worked under the assumption that tropical climates carried relatively little compared to more temperate climates. Analysis by (Windsor and Rand, 1985) of long-term precipitation and temperature data from Barro Colorado island drew attention to the fact that BCI rainfall decreased at the average rate of 8 mm per year between 1925–1986, despite the massive rain in 1981 (according data, the ACP, whose earliest records go back as far as 1880, show that 1981 was the wettest year ever in the Panama Canal Watershed (Windsor, 1990)). These results agree with computers’ general circulation models for this epoch, projecting a decrease in rainfall within 5 and 30 degrees from the Equator. Paton and Stallard (in preparation) show that this decrease was, in fact, part of a series of decadal-length oscillations in precipitation most likely associated with Pacific and Atlantic oceanic circulation. As a consequence of its easy accessibility, long history of ecological research, the availability of high-quality, long-term climatic data, and the presence of the Smithsonian Institution, Panama became a laboratory for the international scientific community to explore and evaluate how climate and climate change affect all aspects of the environment, from the smallest microbes up to the level of entire ecosystem.

Beginning in the 1990s, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon became a central topic of research in Panama. Campos et al (1996) studied vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, particularly the impact of the ENSO phenomenon on Panama and Costa Rica. The warm phase of the ENSO phenomenon, known as El Niño, strongly correlated with lower-than-average rainfall throughout most of Central America, including Panama (REFERENCE). In Panama, the 1982/3 and 1991/2 El Niño are associated with the decreased rainfall and reduced hydropower generation increasing the Panama dependence on fossil fuels, in increased greenhouse gas emission for those years. In 1997, Espinosa et al (1997) modelled water resource availability scenarios in Panama for the Chagres River basin, and the La Villa, and Chiriquí Viejo rivers for the period of 1997 to 2007 resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂. The models predicted average monthly runoff decreases of between 3 and 50% resulting from different combinations of increased temperatures, and lower precipitation.

Research by Pino and Espinosa (2001) led to the observation that since the early 1960s, average precipitation had been decreasing in the Panama Canal Watershed. Cárdenas Castillero (2021) investigated precipitation variability and found a negative variability (rainfall decrease) for the central climate region. The creation of the first permanent, 50ha Forest Dynamics plot of the Forest Global Earth Observatory https://Forestgeo.si.edu) on BCI in 1980 allowed Condit (1998) to predict that increasing rainfall and shorter dry seasons would not cause significant extinctions in tropical forests but that drying trends would be a much greater concern. Longer dry seasons were predicted to be responsible for the local extinction of tree species and rapid forest change.

The importance of forest as important components of the hydrological cycle in Panama Canal Watershed led to creation of the joint ACP-STRI Agua Salud research project. This project was designed to investigate and quantify the hydrological importance of forests, particularly in reducing floods and increasing dry-season water availability. A major finding of this project was the so-called Sponge Effect where forests were found to be significantly better at holding on to water during the rainy season and releasing it later during the dry season when it is more needed to run the operations of the Panama Canal and provide drinking water to over half of Panama’s population (Ogden et al, 2013). Simonit and Perrings (2013) however, found that reforestation does not necessarily increase water supply but also carbon sequestration and timber production. Comita and Engelbrecht (2009) results show that seasonal and spatial variation in water availability, particularly during drier years, determine local species distributions. Predicted shifts in rainfall patterns caused by global and regional climate change are expected to alter seasonal tropical forests’ dynamics, composition, and diversity.

Both ACP and STRI precipitation data indicate that since the early 1990s, Central Panama has experienced a marked increase in precipitation variability. Compared to the 140-year precipitation record, since 1997 Central Panama has experienced 8 of the 10 greatest 24-hour precipitation events, two of the three wettest years, the two driest years, and the driest three contiguous years on record (Paton, 2019d) and (Paton, 2019a). Murphy Jr et al (2014) describes the single greatest 24-hour rain event ever recorded for Panama. The 7–8 December 2010, LA Purisima storm resulted in, widespread flooding, landslides, and property destruction across the country. Boat traffic through the Panama Canal for the first time due to weather conditions since the early 1930. The author exposes the monthly accumulated precipitation variability precipitation over the tropical Panama Canal Watershed has the highest interannual variability in December, with the wettest month on the record being December 2010.

Analysis of rainfall data from stations throughout Central America by Chang et al (2015a) reveal the strong association of El Niño events with reduced precipitation, especially during the first months of the rainy season (June, July, and August), and a decline in vegetation cover during the following dry season (March and April). Detto et al (2018) analysed the relationship between leaf and seed fall and climate variation over 30 years in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Panama. The authors found indications of adaptive strategies to optimize reproduction and resources acquisition by observing changes in allocations between leaves and fruits in response to the increased availability of solar radiation during El Niño events. These changes may allow plants to take advantage of greater light availability while coping with higher atmospheric water demand and reduced water supply. Understanding such strategies will be crucial in order to model how tropical ecosystems may respond to climate change, especially if the ENSO system is altered.

4.1.1 Guna Yala Archipelago challenge

Guna Yala is a province controlled by the indigenous Guna people located in the northeast Panama. It consists of a thin strip of land on the mainland and an archipelago with more than 300 islands. Many of these islands are artificial, constructed from local coral reefs, and rise only 0.5-1m above mean tide levels. Research on level rise was carried out as part of a relocation study for the Gardi Sugdub community, located on one of these low-lying islands (Morales and D´ıaz, 2021). Other studies Solutions (2014) and Dannenberg et al (2019) found that at least 40 other Guna Yala Island communities will need to be relocated to the mainland as a result of sea level rise and population growth. Martínez Sastre (2018) citing Guzmán et al (2003) found significant evidence of sea-level rise in Guna Yala average 2.0 mm/year between 1907–2000, with evidence that it has accelerated by an average of 0.02 m/year since 1907 and 0.024 m/year in the la last 30 years. Based on a comparison of aerial images taken of uninhabited islands over the last 30 years, the authors found a reduction in surface area of 50,363 m², with an average loss of 1,105 m² in the islands uninhabited. Jessa (2020) used sea-level rise model to show that, extreme climate events such as storm surges may render a significant number of the islands uninhabitable by as early as 2050, and by 2300 coastal flooding and erosion will affect several sections of the mainland.

Research on the emerging risks of tropical diseases such as malaria, yellow fever, and dengue has a result of climate change as also increased in recent decades. Hurtado et al (2014), found evidence that increased climate variability, particularly related to the ENSO phenomenon, may result in an increase in the frequency of malaria cases, particularly among indigenous and economically disadvantaged groups underserved by governmental malaria control strategies. Hurtado et al (2018) showed that ENSO, rainfall, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and highlight the need for further research in the impacts of climate on malaria vector ecology, and the impact if malaria on local indigenous communities.

4.2 The road to building climate change institutionality in Panama

Panama is a relative late comer to institution environmental development. Responsibility for environmental management in the country rests with the Ministry of the Environmental which was established in 2015 (Asamblea Nacional de Panamá, 2015), more than two decade after most other Central America had created ministerial-level environmental agencies: Nicaragua in 1994 (Asamblea Nacional de la República de Nicaragua, 1994), Costa Rica in 1995 (Asamblea Legislativa de la República de Costa Rica, 1995), El Salvador en 1997 (Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador, 1997), Guatemala (Congreso Nacional de la República de Guatemala, 2000) and the Dominican Republic in the year 2000 (Congreso Nacional de República Dominicana, 2000). This late development created an institutional deficit in issues regarding ecosystem policies, land management, marine and coastal resources policy, and climate change.

There are two possible reasons for the late development of Panama’s environmental institutions. Since its foundation in 1903, and until the late 1990’s, much of Panama, including most of the Panama Canal Watershed, was under direct administrative control of the United States of America (United State of America and Republic of Panama, 1982). The delay in acquiring sovereignty over this territory very likely delayed the development of Panamanian institutions. The U.S. government’s military and civilian institutions cast a significant shadow on environmental decisions in the country (Lindsay Poland, 2003). Panama’s economic structure is the second possible reason the delay in institutionalization of environmental policy. Panama’s service sector comprises about 70% of the economy. This over-dependence on the service sector may have hindered the development of other sectors of the economy. Following the handover of the Panama Canal and other US-controlled territories, natural resource-based development became a feature of a transforming Panamanian economy (Castro Herrera, 2007).

In the two decades following the return of the Panama Canal, many large resource-based projects have been developed, including dozens of hydroelectric projects, a multi-billion dollar open-pit metal mine, the expansion of the Panama Canal locks (allowing the passage of ships 250% larger than before), as well as many tourism-oriented and state initiatives in previously untouched tropical rainforest. The rapid pace conversion of land for economic development, as well as the privatization of water rights, led to growing popular discontent and protests. The intensification of social-environmental conflicts led to the establishment of multiple community-based organisations and civil society movements, further increasing popular resistance to many projects.

In response, Panama upgraded its environmental agency Instituto Nacional de Recursos Naturales Renovables (INRENARE for its acronym in Spanish) created in 1986 to define, plan, organize, coordinate, regulate and promote policies and actions for the use, conservation and development of natural resources (Asamblea Legislativa de Panamá, 1986) to Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente (ANAM for its acronym in Spanish) with the objective of ensuring compliance and application of laws, regulations and national policies on the environment. Eighteen years later this agency was upgraded to the ministerial-level Ministry of Environment (MiAmbiente) (Tarté, 2012)².

As a reaction to growing public pressure, Panama created several new protected zones in areas under pressure by urban and industrial developers (Asociación Nacional para la Conservación de la Naturales, 2014). At the same time, Panama’s supreme court ruled in favour of environmental rights on several occasions, denying both private and government attempts to roll back environmental laws and protections. The creation of the Ministry of Environment facilitated greater and more effective environmental management strategies and policies, as well as the creation of several important initiatives and agencies such as the Meteorological and Hydrological Institute of Panama (Asamblea Nacional de la Repu´blica de Panamá, 2021), the climate change adaptation fund (Ministerio de Ambiente de Panamá, 2021b), an upgraded national climate change policy (Ministerio de Ambiente de Panamá, 2022), and the newly created National Climate Change Directorate. Perhaps most importantly, in 2022 Panama began work on a new Climate Change Framework law which may become lay in 2023. This law is expected to put Panama in the forefront among Latin American countries regarding climate change policies. Finally, Panama’s determination that it is one of only three countries in the world that are carbon negative, provides a significant opportunity for the country to develop some of the strongest resilience and mitigation policies in Latin America (Miambiente, 2021).

4.3 climate change research and public policy interlinkages

Panama’s first government agency responsible for the development the country’s scientific agenda of the country, La Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), was established in April 1997 (Asamblea Legislativa de Panamá, 1997). Since its creation, SENACYT has been the primary funding source for local science. Prior to 1997, Panama had two central scientific research institutes, one in charge of tropical medicine studies and the other focused on agricultural research (Noriega, 1998). In 1921 the Gorgas Memorial Laboratory (GML) was established for research in tropical medicine by the United States and Panamanian scientists and was mostly dependent on funding from U.S. agencies (Noriega, 1998). The GML was transferred to Panama in 1990, becoming a department in the Panamanian Health Ministry. In 1997, the GMS was renamed as the Gorgas Health Studies Memorial Institute (ICGES for its acronym in Spanish) (Noriega, 1998).

In 1975, the Institute of Agricultural Research of Panama (IDIAP for its acronym in Spanish) was established to carry agricultural research with the intention of improving the lives of small-scale farmers and landowners. The need for increased agricultural productivity became a governmental priority (Vierba, 2021). IDIAP was assigned the tasks of developing the new seeds, diseases prevention tools, and improving animal breeding practices (Heckadon Moreno and Espinoza González, 1985). Tropical medicine and domestic agriculture were the primary focus of Panamanian science during the period of 1970–1990. During this same period, most other research activities were carried out by non-Panamanian institutions such as the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Tropical Test Centre (Noriega, 1998).

SENACYT was created in 1997 to stimulate scientific research in Panama by Panamanians across a broad spectrum of topics. The culmination of transfer of territorial control from the United States to Panama in 1999 helped incentivize the creation of a national research agenda (Castro Herrera, 2007). Despite these new research initiatives, Panama has allocated only 0.16% of its GDP to research and development, compared with 0.38% of Costa Rica, and the average of Latin America and the Caribbean countries is 0.70% (Banco Mundial, 2022). During this same period, the majority of environmental research in Panama was carried out by scientists associated with the STRI (Noriega, 1998).

The United Nation’s framework convention on climate change (1992), mandates the requirements for climate reporting and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including research to support the data and the claims made by each country. Climate research was carried out to establish baselines for vulnerability to rising seas, shifting rainfall patterns, and temperature increases (Autoridad Nacional del Ambiente, 2000) and (Miambiente, 2021). In addition, the development of accurate national forest cover maps were key inputs in the calculations indicating that Panama is carbon negative.

The climate research initiative’s acceleration during the pandemic resulted from Panama’s mandate and duties under the Paris Climate Accords (2015). This set of commitments became the main driver of the Panamanian government’s climate research. Many knowledge gaps related to the most vulnerable ecosystems and communities still exist, and form some of the greatest challenges for climate change research in Panama (Ministerio de Ambiente de Panamá, 2021a). Due to its Paris Accord commitments, Panama will very likely need to implement mandates without the needed environmental data (Ministerio de Ambiente de Panamá, 2021a). Panama’s carbon negative status may provide some additional time, perhaps as far as 2032–2044 when some experts predict Panama to become carbon neutral, or even positive in the worst-case scenarios (Noriega, 2021).

The pandemic of COVID-19 appears to have increased the level of awareness about science and technology among the general population of Panama. According to the World Bank, in 2018 Panama’s investment in research and development, as a function of GDP (0.15%), was still below the average of other Latin American countries (0.68%), and even farther behind the global average (2.2%). Government policy is shifting towards increased funding of the National Secretariat of Science, Technology, and Innovation (SENACYT). Recent investigations showing that Panama has a carbon negative economic has opened new international and local funding opportunities for climate change research.

²Describes the urgent need to create a Ministry of Environment and the social and economic factors that opposed previous attempts to create this government agency

This paper presents an overview of emerging literature that addresses climate change impacts in the Panama Republic, the trends, essential contributions, and international collaboration. The findings of this review show evident results that most of the climate change studies in Panama have been carried out from the laboratories managed by the Smithsonian Institute, located in Barro Colorado, Punta Galeta, Balboa, and Bocas del Toro. Nevertheless, other studies have done possible to comprehend how the warming of the seas due to the El Niño Phenomenon affects corals reef. This is due to the tropical forests of Panama being the most studied on the planet, offering a natural laboratory with decades of collected data facilitating tropical research by researchers from everywhere.

Regarding climate variability effects, the increase in temperatures that are projected for the Dry Arch in the coming decades, added to the low levels of precipitation registered in this region, will aggravate the conditions of drought and soil degradation that characterize it. This will have a negative and significant impact on agricultural production in this area and, therefore, on food security in the Republic of Panama. Other essential impacts are related to the rise in sea level on the Panamanian Caribbean coast is a severe problem that condemns thousands of people in the indigenous region of San Blas.

During the latest decades, Panama has worked in response to international climate agreements to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon negativity has become an important opportunity for Panama to establish a competitive edge in the new green economy. The country will need more scientific research and a more outstanding commitment from the political elite to sustainable development to capture this potential. Despite the number of publications that relate Panama to climate change studies, there are still significant gaps that can only be filled with scientific planning that involves national public and private entities. Panama cannot depend on international entities to be able to carry out studies in its territory.

The References are available in the Supplementary Files section

Table 1 Scientific publications done on Panamanian territory

All Country	Cuschnir (2017)	Palacios Morales (2019)
	Cowing (2017)	Perricone and Collin (2019)
Alfaro Martínez (2002)	Pinzón et al (2017)	Montenegro and Pitti (2020)
León et al (2004)	Fonseca (2018)	Sullivan et al (2020)
Rocha et al (2005)	Sánchez et al (2018)	Saavedra et al (2021)
Tremblay and Anderson (2007)	Calero et al (2019)	Weinstock and Collin (2021)
Potvin et al (2008)	Dmitry et al (2019)
Weitz et al (2008)	Melchor (2019)	Western Pacific
Horowitz (2009)	Muñoz et al (2019)
Leguía et al (2009)	Perez et al (2019)	Glynn (1984)
Oestreicher et al (2009)	Tarko et al (2019)	Glynn and D’croz (1990)
Pérez et al (2009)	Villalpando (2019)	Glynn (1993)
Valsson and Ulfarsson (2009)	Pinzón et al (2020)	(1996)
Gordon (2009)	Seddon et al (2020)	Glynn (1996)
Gutíerrez and Espinosa (2010)	Aguilar (2021)	Espinosa et al (1997)
Lavell and Lavell (2010)	Aldana et al (2021)	Harms et al (2000)
Mora et al (2010)	Lucey et al (2021)	Glynn et al (2001)
Schatan et al (2010)	CEPAL (2022)	D’Croz and Maté (2004)
Strassburg et al (2010)		Guzman et al (2004)
Ho-Lem et al (2011)	Western Caribbean	Capson (2006)
Karmalkar et al (2011)		D’Croz and O’Dea (2007)
Pelletier et al (2011)	Knowlton et al (1992)	Glynn and Fong (2006)
de la Nación (2012)	Guzmán and Guevara (1998)	Manzello et al (2008)
Balvanera et al (2012)	Harms et al (2000)	Sanjur Palacios (2010)
Cerón-Souza et al (2012)	Alcolado et al (2001)	van Breugel et al (2011)
Larjavaara and Muller (2012)	Collin (2005)	Valiela et al (2012)
Wohl et al (2012)	Guzmán et al (2005)	Centroamericano (2013)
Anderson et al (2013)	Kaufmann and Thompson (2005)	Melendez (2013)
Asner et al (2013)	Collin et al (2009)	Wagner et al (2013)
Key Jr et al (2013)	Eakin et al (2010)	Gameda et al (2014)
Sepúlveda and Ibrahim (2013)	Finley-Brook and Thomas (2011)	Phillips and Puschendorf (2013)
Bouroncle et al (2014)	Miloslavich et al (2010)	Wagner et al (2014)
Chave et al (2014)	Centroamericano (2013)	Chang et al (2015a)
Nakaegawa et al (2014b)	Kwiatkowski et al (2013)	Rodríguez Guerra (2016)
Nakaegawa et al (2014a)	López-Caldero´n et al (2013)	Capson (2017)
Pulgarín and Molina (2014)	Schlöder et al (2013)	Chollett et al (2017)
Revollo and Ferrer (2014)	Wagner et al (2013)	Prada et al (2017)
Atkin et al (2015)	Quinn and Pouliot (2014)	Sarti et al (2017)
Bader et al (2015)	Van Tussenbroek et al (2014)	Castellanos et al (2018)
Magrin (2015)	Wagner et al (2014)	ZWYNS et al (2018)
Nakaegawa et al (2015)	Cramer et al (2015)	Clemente Beyer et al (2019)
PENUMA (2015)	Collin and Chan (2016)	Stranges et al (2019)
Sánchez and Reyes (2015)	Altieri et al (2017)	Ortega Justavino (2020)
Esser et al (2016)	Holmes et al (2017)	Randall et al (2020)
Graham et al (2016)	Mateo-Vega et al (2017)	Romero-Torres et al (2020)
Loaiza (2016)	Twilley et al (2017)	Borsari et al (2021)
Pérez-Bricen˜o et al (2016)	Collin et al (2018)	Clarke et al (2021)
Riojas-Rodríguez et al (2016)	Miglietta et al (2018)	Enochs et al (2021)
Brandt (2017)	Sjögersten et al (2018)	Leray et al (2021)
CEPAL (2017)	Linardich et al (2019)	Rodr´ıguez Burgos et al (2021)
Arco Seco	Condit et al (1996)	Kwiecinski and D’Croz (2008)
	Glynn (1996)	Lovelock (2008)
Espinosa et al (1997)	Espinosa et al (1997)	Manzello et al (2008)
Harms et al (2000)	Jackson (1997)	Miglietta et al (2008)
Buitrago (2002)	Jordán et al (1997)	Richards (2008)
Gordón et al (2004)	Ogden et al (1997)	Rauscher et al (2008)
van Breugel et al (2011)	Uribe and Umanzor (1997)	Wake and Vredenburg (2008)
Collin and Spangler (2012)	Amador and Olmedo (1998)	Comita and Engelbrecht (2009)
Centroamericano (2013)	Block (1998)	Kays et al (2009)
Li et al (2013)	Condit (1998)	López Arias (2009)
Ruane et al (2013a)	Bravo González (1999)	Metcalf et al (2009)
Gordón (2014)	Condit et al (2000)	Wright et al (2009)
Gordon-Mendoza et al (2015)	Harms et al (2000)	Wolf et al (2009)
Gordón-Mendoza et al (2017)	Condit et al (2001)	Bustamante et al (2010)
Concepción and Carolina (2018)	Gilbert et al (2001)	Imbach et al (2010)
De La Cruz (2018)	Glynn et al (2001)	Krause et al (2010)
Castillo et al (2019)	Pyke et al (2001)	Meyer et al (2010)
CATHALAC (2019)	Pino and Espinosa (2001)	Miloslavich et al (2010)
Graell (2019)	Podesta´ and Glynn (2001)	Park et al (2010)
Larsen (2019)	Roubik (2001)	Srygley et al (2010)
Romero et al (2019)	Aylward and Watershed (2002)	Legendre et al (2010)
García et al (2020)	Condit et al (2002)	Wedeux (2010)
Gordón-Mendoza (2020)	Daws et al (2002)	Zimmermann et al (2010)
Ly and Collin (2021)	Ibánñez et al (2002)	Broce and Duque (2011)
Dibala et al (2021)	Chave et al (2003)	Cernusak et al (2011)
Noel Amaya et al (2021)	Collin (2003)	Feeley et al (2011)
Saucedo and Achurra (2021)	Dale et al (2003)	Lindo Riggs et al (2011)
Serra et al (2021)	Muller-Landau (2004)	Locatelli et al (2011)
	LaVal (2004)	Mascaro et al (2011a)
Central Region	Van Bael et al (2004)	Mascaro et al (2011b)
	Bischler-Causse et al (2005)	Mulligan and Lombardo (2011)
Dietrich (1982)	Corn (2005)	Roman and Fábrega (2011)
Glynn (1984)	Harmon (2005b)	van Breugel et al (2011)
Lessios et al (1984)	Stireman et al (2005)	Wolf et al (2011)
Windsor and Rand (1985)	Glynn and Fong (2006)	Wright et al (2011)
Becker (1987)	Goldsmith et al (2006)	Alory et al (2012)
Cubit et al (1989)	Graham et al (2006)	Bittner et al (2012)
Cubit (1990)	Muller-Landau et al (2006)	Craven (2012)
Glynn and D’croz (1990)	Pedraza and Díaz (2006)	Crouch (2012)
Howe (1990)	Sautu et al (2006)	Dong et al (2012)
Keller et al (1990)	Wright and Calderón (2006)	Ignacio (2012)
Leigh et al (1990)	Basset et al (2007)	Kerr et al (2012)
Glynn (1991)	D’Croz and O’Dea (2007)	Nakayama et al (2012)
Gradstein (1992)	Engelbrecht et al (2007)	Pinzón et al (2012)
Leigh et al (1993)	Feeley et al (2007)	Basset et al (2013)
Kapala et al (1994)	BOCHKOV and Alex (2007)	Batterman (2013)
Keller and Stallard (1994)	Chave et al (2008)	Centroamericano (2013)
Poveda (1995)	Comita et al (2007)	Cheesman and Winter (2013)
Bijlsma et al (1996)	Feeley et al (2007)	Lebuhn et al (2013)
Campos et al (1996)	Tan et al (2007)	López-Calder´on et al (2013)
Phillips and Puschendorf (2013)	Lessios and Baums (2017)	Koven et al (2020)
Pollard (2013)	Melendez-Rivera (2017)	Nottingham et al (2020)
Ogden et al (2013)	Norby et al (2017)	Gora et al (2020)
Simonit and Perrings (2013)	Slot and Winter (2017b)	Martínez Cano et al (2020)
Slot et al (2013)	Slot and Winter (2017a)	Randall et al (2020)
Zimmermann et al (2013)	Tan et al (2017)	Romero-Torres et al (2020)
Cárdenas Castillero (2014)	Twilley et al (2017)	Rutishauser et al (2020)
Kerr et al (2014)	Cusack et al (2018a)	Sugasti and Pinzón (2020)
McPherson and Karney (2014)	Cusack et al (2018b)	Velilla et al (2020)
Murphy Jr et al (2014)	Detto et al (2018)	Yanoviak et al (2020)
Cavanaugh et al (2014)	Garzón and Gordillo (2018)	Birch et al (2021a)
P´erez and Mariaga (2014)	Guevara et al (2018)	Blundo et al (2021)
Slot et al (2014)	Johnson et al (2018)	Boeschoten et al (2021)
Winter et al (2014)	Kunert et al (2018)	Birch et al (2021b)
Yang et al (2014)	Lutz et al (2018)	Birch et al (2021a)
Anderson-Teixeira et al (2015)	McDowell et al (2018)	Blundo et al (2021)
Basset et al (2015a)	Meakem et al (2018)	Boeschoten et al (2021)
Basset et al (2015b)	Pau et al (2018)	Boretti (2021)
Castañeda Gaviria (2015)	Slot and Winter (2018)	Browne et al (2021)
Chang et al (2015b)	Sugasti et al (2018)	Can (2021)
Dale et al (2015)	Trewin (2018)	Cárdenas Castillero (2021)
Holmes et al (2015)	Bertolin (2019)	Chavarria et al (2021)
Millan-Otoya (2015)	Aguirre Castro (2019)	Chitra-Tarak et al (2021)
Robertson and Collin (2015)	Castellanos et al (2019)	Clarke et al (2021)
Picado et al (2015)	Cronin et al (2019)	Craighead and Yacelga (2021)
Reef et al (2015)	Dickman et al (2019)	Collin et al (2021)
Sarmiento (2015)	Geipel et al (2019)	Davies et al (2021)
Slot and Kitajima (2015)	Kupers et al (2019a)	Enochs et al (2021)
Stapley et al (2015)	Kupers et al (2019b)	Fort and Grigera (2021)
Torres Gonzalez (2015)	Kupers et al (2019c)	Kunert et al (2021)
Bujan et al (2016)	Levy-Varon et al (2019)	Leray et al (2021)
Castillo et al (2016)	Linardich et al (2019)	Marshall et al (2021)
Cusatti et al (2016)	Mayoral et al (2019)	Moreno et al (2021)
Chazdon et al (2016)	Sinacore et al (2019)	Navarro Valencia et al (2021)
Collin and Ochoa (2016)	Stranges et al (2019)	Neel et al (2021)
Collins et al (2016)	Schnabel et al (2019)	Regina et al (2021)
Lucas et al (2016)	Taylor et al (2019)	Roubik et al (2021)
Reef et al (2016)	Thompson et al (2019)	Sesana et al (2021)
Rey-Sánchez et al (2016)	Basham and Scheffers (2020)	Slot et al (2021a)
Rodríguez De Gracia (2016)	Brändel et al (2020)	Slot et al (2021b)
Segura et al (2016)	Bush et al (2020)	Hall et al (2022)
Slot et al (2016)	Carral et al (2020)
Zhou et al (2016)	Castellanos et al (2020)	Eastern Caribbean
Alfaro-Sánchez et al (2017)	Cheng et al (2020)
Basset et al (2017)	Chitra-Tarak et al (2020)	Glynn (1984)
Bush (2017)	Cramer et al (2020)	Lessios et al (1984)
Condit et al (2017)	Díaz (2020)	Shulman and Robertson (1996)
Garcia et al (2017)	Estrada-Villegas et al (2020)	D’Croz et al (1999)
Haselhorst et al (2017)	González et al (2020)	Robertson et al (1999)
Guzmán et al (2003)	Eastern Pacific	PNUMA and ANAN (2011
Pandolfi et al (2003)		MINSA (2013)
Goreau and Hilbertz (2008)	Legendre et al (2010)	ANAM (2014)
McEntee (2012)	Centroamericano (2013)	Gameda et al (2014)
Centroamericano (2013)	Holmes et al (2017)	PNSH (2016)
Hurtado et al (2014)	Mateo-Vega et al (2017)	Miambiente and PNUD (20
Robertson and Collin (2015)	Mateo-Vega et al (2019)	Miambiente (2017)
Potvin and Mateo-Vega (2013)	Sullivan et al (2020)	Municipio de Panama´ (201
Mauri (2017)	Clarke et al (2021)	CCAD and SICA (2018)
Hurtado et al (2018)		Miambiente (2018)
Martínez Sastre (2018)	Panamanian Official Report	MIDA and Miambiente (20
Linardich et al (2019)		Miambiente (2019b)
Jessa (2020)	Anam (2000)	Miambiente (2019a)
Ros-García et al (2020)	Anam (2009)	Miambiente (2020)
Ros-García et al (2020)	Sanjur Palacios (2010)	Miambiente (2021)
Morales and Díaz (2021)	Anam (2011)

No competing interests reported.

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The Dynamics of Climate Change Science and Policy in Panama: A Review

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Abstract

Figures

1 Introduction

2 Bibliographical Sources And Methods

2.1 Study Area

2.2 Bibliographical sources

2.3 Methods

2.3.1 Geographic information systems analysis

3 Results

3.1 Scientific production

3.2 Geographic Distribution of Climate change research

3.2.1 Projected effects of climate change in Panama

3.2.2 Panama Canal watershed

4 Discussion

4.1 Impact of climate change in Panamanian territory

4.1.1 Guna Yala Archipelago challenge

4.2 The road to building climate change institutionality in Panama

4.3 climate change research and public policy interlinkages

5 Conclusion

References

Tables

Additional Declarations

Supplementary Files

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