Impact of climate change on nomadic herders’ livelihoods: a case study of the Bakarwal tribe in the western Himalayas in India

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2245838/v2

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Impact of climate change on nomadic herders’ livelihoods: a case study of the Bakarwal tribe in the western Himalayas in India

https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2245838/v2

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This study quantifies the impact of climate change on the livelihoods of nomadic herders in the western Himalayas in India, who depend on natural resources for their livelihood, and are herding livestock. In this research paper, we collected primary data from 235 nomadic herders on their perceptions regarding the variables of climate change. We analysed the primary data using factor analysis and found that due to climate change, in the last few decades, nomads have experienced less and untimely rainfall and increased temperature, which ultimately results in the fallen growth of pasture, degraded quality and quantity of pasture, pasture plants being replaced by weedy plants, shrunken the harvesting time of pasture, drying of sources of water in later days at winter residence, seasons have changed, experiencing unstable weather, and reduced grazing areas are bringing the drought-like situation in the area. Further, this creates significant challenges in raising livestock with less pasture, water availability, increased environmental diseases risk bringing starvation and death of animals, falling the quality and quantity of milk, wool and meat, and lowered the market price of final goods. This has a serious impact on the economic activities of nomadic herders in the region. Climate change also forced the nomadic herders in the region to early migration, which allowed them to face difficulties such as ice over mountain passes, less grass along the paths for grazing, unexpected avalanches, thunderstorms or hailstorms and intense rains on the way to uplands. Finally, this study brings to the notice of policymakers, climatologists, local governments, and animal health departments that climate change is endangering the life of nomadic herders, and we should develop appropriate plans to minimize the loss.

Environmental Economics

Environmental Policy

Environmental Engineering

Environmental Law

Climate change

Nomadic herders

Western Himalayas

Livelihood

Jammu and Kashmir

Bakarwal community

Bakarwal is a nomadic tribe residing in Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control (LOC) between India and Pakistan, primarily herding livestock (sheep and goats) for their livelihood. Nomads are heavily dependent on natural resources to provide food and income for the family (Solomon et al. 2007). This makes them highly dependent on forest pasture and other related natural resources. Pastoralists have exceptional values and cultural aspects, and their livelihood strategies are related to livestock-based economic activities with their system of livestock production (Claire and Joseph 2017; Ayantunde et al., 2011; Ibrahim et al., 2020). Pastoralists have been using natural resources for decades and have strategies for using natural resources, characterized by flexibility mobility, reciprocity, and adaptability (Fernandez-Gimenez and Le Febre 2006).

Highlands (Dhoks), herding areas, and pasture for livestock are significant natural resources, and pastoralists are directly dependent on and rear livestock, which is a significant source of income for them (Dong et al. 2016; Ambelu et al. 2017). Nomads migrate in search of pasture for their livestock as the seasons start changing, they start seasonal migration on the 1^st of Baisakh-lunar calendar month), which falls around the 15^th of April every year. This is the time when summer approaches and makes it difficult for livestock to survive because sources of water start declining, the temperature rises, and pasture for livestock comes to an end, which makes it difficult for livestock to survive. Nomads reached their respective summer destinations (Dhok), Marwah, Dachhan, Padder in Kishtwar district, Drass in Kargil, Zabarwan range, Sonamarg, and in the highlands of Pir Panjal, after harsh feet travel of almost two months. After three and half months of herding, they start migrating towards plains and the Kandi belt- the southern part of the Shivalik mountain range of Jammu, Kathua, Samba, Reasi, Rajouri, and Poonch. Researchers have studied livestock ownership and herd size to represent the dependence on natural resources such as pasture and water, for livestock production (Kemausuor et al. 2011; Legesse et al. 2013; Ayantunde et al. 2014). The availability of natural resources for the well-being of livestock mainly depends on a combination of climatic conditions and resource management. Different herders have their ways of managing pasture, livestock, and climatic conditions in this regard (Nega et al. 2015). Climate change is changing the livelihood of nomadic communities around the world (Saifullahi et al. 2020). Climate change has been threatening pastoral communities (Muluken and Desta 2021; Fratkin 2014). Indigenous people with limited access to climate information, particularly reductions in perception, unexpected rainfall, floods, landslides, avalanches, cloud bursts and even streams overflows, have led to changes in their socio, cultural, and herding practices (Nyanga et al. 2011). Environmental changes have severely affected human living, specifically farming, encountering environmental diseases (Ahmed and Afzal 2019). Researchers have found that floods, drought, cyclones, untimely snow and intense rains are among the major natural hazards that directly impact agriculture and allied sectors (Dong et al. 2016; Ahmad et al. 2020). In the literature, climate change's impact on pastoralists' communities is widely discussed throughout the world, including variability in lifestyle and livestock diseases and how changes in environmental conditions affect nomadic herders' lives (Ashfaq et al. 2015; Sharma et al. 2016; Magita and Sangeda 2017; Kimaro et al. 2017). Some find that climate change is expected to severely affect survival and livestock production (Toulmin 2009; Nardone et al. 2010). Climate change affects the quantity, quality and productivity of pasture, which negatively affects livestock production as the sole economic activity of nomadic herders (Nardone et al. 2010; Younas et al. 2012; Debela et al. 2015; Mote et al. 2016; Hidosa and Guyo 2017; Ali 2018; Ibrahim et al. 2018). There is literature stress on perception and adaptation strategies for reducing the impacts of climate change on nomadic communities across the world (Hurst et al. 2012; Debela et al. 2015; Abate 2016; Harrison et al. 2017; Ayal et al. 2018; Abbas et al. 2019).

Few studies have discussed the climate change aspects concerning resilience, vulnerability, and mitigation measures for pastoralists (Little and McPeak 2014; Grace et al. 2015; Dong et al. 2016; Ambelu et al. 2017; Arjjumend 2018; Fenta et al. 2019; Muricho et al. 2019). Some research studies have tried to explain forecasting methods adopted by nomadic/pastoralist communities (Nusser and Holdschlag 2012; Ayal et al. 2015; Rojas-Downing et al. 2017; Kagunyu et al. 2016). The sustainability of nomadic communities is facing increasing challenges related to environmental variations (Ahmad & Afzal, 2021; Gupta et al., 2019).

The literature cited above reveals the impact of climate change on pastoralist/nomadic communities across the world. This has been discussed with significant aspects concerning livestock production, pasture quality and quantity, environmental diseases, climate change perception, adaptation strategies, vulnerability, resilience, mitigation, unexpected weather conditions and forecasting measures. Climate change is a major global concern, and studying the impact of climate in the highlands and plain regions has been a major focus of research activities in recent years (Huss et al. 2017; Vuille et al. 2018). Climate change, as a global environmental driver, brings many benefits to humans, such as pastureland and water (Pedrono et al. 2016; Dīaz et al. 2015). On a continental scale, the warming trend will continue in Asia. The impact of climate change on ecosystem services is likely to be unequal for developing countries (Runting et al. 2017), and it is most likely to be uneven or local livelihoods. There are areas of the interior and at high latitudes in Asia where the monitoring of key environmental variables makes it difficult to study climate change impacts (IPCC 2014). In data scare conditions, local observations of nature-dependent peoples such as nomads can help reduce the uncertainty of climate change predictions and improve ecosystem services assessment at a local level (Marin 2010). This study will link the impact of climate change to that of the nomadic herders who are highly nature-dependent people and are migrating between plains and highlands for their livelihood.

For a better understanding of the perceptions and practices of climate change, nomadic herders have an important role in preserving ecosystem services and maintaining livelihoods. Equally, the experience of nomadic communities speaks to how new technology and market opportunities are being taken up by maintaining the sustainability of the environment. This paper investigates how the livelihoods of nomadic communities are changing, with the changing behaviour of environmental variables. In this article, we explore how local herders see and understand the interactions between their livelihoods and ecosystem services under changing environmental conditions in Jammu and Kashmir. Here, we focussed on how the nomadic herders have felt climate change in recent years and how this impacts their livelihood by focusing on various aspects of day-to-day life.

Study Area

This study is based on fieldwork carried out in Jammu and Kashmir, which lies between the latitude 33.2778 N, 75.3412 E. The main location of the study was Kathua, Jammu, Samba, and Rajouri districts of Jammu and Kashmir, which is the winter seasonal migration area of nomadic communities, including the Bakarwal tribe, and Padder, Marwah, Dachhan (Kishtwar), Zabrwan Valley (Baramulla), Sonamarg (Ganderbal), Drass (Kargil), Gurez (Bandipora), Lolab Valley (Kupwara), and Pir Panjal (Shopian) are the summer seasonal migration areas.

The topography of the area is characterized by the Shivalik Mountains forest steppe and Kandi area. These forests are rich in vegetation includes forests rich in Senegalia catechu (Khair), Vachellia nilotica (kikar), Ziziphus mauritiana (ber), Butea monosperma (plash), Carissa spinarum (Garanda/Garna/Conkerberry), Limonia acidissima (Bilan), Justicia adhatoda (Bekad), Ficus religiosa (pepal), Grewia villosa Willd (Thaman), Bougainvvillea (Pandrah), Spiraea thunbergia, Lonicerafragrantissima (Winter Honeysuckle) and Helicteres Isora/Lenia (Banthamman). These are very useful for the well-being of livestock and are used by nomads for grazing. These plants have been replaced by weedy plants on a large-scale including Latina Camara (Panjphulli), Parthenium hysterophorus (Congress grass), and Xanthium strumarium (Jojra). The average temperature at the winter residence of Bakarwals in Jammu in the Kandi and Plains of Jammu Province from November to March varies between 3 degrees and 29 degrees Celsius. In the climatically more variable region, Jammu and Kashmir, the temperature reached up to 48 degrees in the plains and Kandi belt of Jammu. The region is heavily reliant on rain. Winter is wet and cold (Nomadic herders migrate to plains of Jammu, Kathua, Samba, and Rajouri), and summers are harsh and warm, so bakarwals migrate to the upper Himalayan region, including Marwah, Dacchan, Upper areas of Padder, Kiar, Baltal, Satsar, Gurez, Drass, and Lolab Valley, and in other adjoining regions in the Pir Panjal mountains range for the herding of livestock.

The study area is demonstrated with the help of the map given below, with districts coloured red (Kathua, Samba, Jammu, and Rajouri) representing the winter migration area of nomads. However, districts coloured yellow (Kishtwar, Anantnag, Drass-Kargil, Ganderbal, Bandipore, Kupwara, and Baramulla) are the summer migration areas of Nomads in Jammu and Kashmir.

This study is categorized into five sections: the introduction in the first section the material and methodology, the results, discussion, conclusion and suggestions of the study.

Nomadic communities or herders are highly dependent on weather and natural conditions for their livelihood. This helps them to observe and remember characteristics such as heat, perception, pasture quality and quantity, amount of surface and groundwater, and other environmental variables. The nomadic herders’ knowledge and perception concerning environmental change and ecosystem services were sampled in fieldwork conducted in the river basin area of Ravi River in district Kathua; Tawi River and Chenab River in district Jammu; Basantar River in district Samba and Nowshera Tawi River in district Rajouri, between December 2021 and July 2022. To gather information on (i) herders’ perception of climate change, (ii) their knowledge of climate change, and (iii) changes to practices they have made, well-structured questionnaires and face-to-face interviews with local herders were conducted with herders from the Bakarwal tribe. A total of 250 respondents were interviewed, after data were tested for normality, 15 respondents were deleted because of nonserious responses and were considered outliers. Therefore, the final sample of the study is 235 and is diversified as follows:

Table 1 Distribution of sample size

District	Sampled Respondent	Final Sample
Kathua	80	73
Samba	60	58
Jammu	60	56
Rajouri	50	48
Total N	250	N = 235

Note: Sampled respondent = Total respondent surveyed.

Final Sample = Sample size after data normality was considered for analysis.

Interview questions focus on five broad themes: household, livestock, herders’ movement, temperature and rainfall, pastures and natural resource issues, and traditional culture. All interviews were face-to-face and were conducted over 45 minutes to 1 hour and 20 minutes.

Data Analysis: Data were reframed, entered, and edited in MS Excel on a Likert scale of 1 to 5, with 1 indicating strongly disagree and 5 indicating strongly agree. This research study has a large number of related items for each variable, and we wish to explore the underlying structure among items. Factor analysis was used to reduce the number of items (Iqbal & Ahmed 2022; Bhat & Sharma 2021, 2022), and analysed using R Statistical Package version 4.1.1.

Table 2 Demographic and socioeconomic profile of respondents

Variable

Sub-group Frequency

Percentage

Age

Age group

20-35

36-50

51-65

66 & above

N= 235

100.0

12.3

25.5

29.4

32.8

Gender

Male

Female

182

77.4

22.6

Religion

Islam

235

100.0

Education

No Formal Education

Primary

Upper Primary

151

64.3

29.4

6.4

Family size

Up to 3

4 – 5

6 - 8

9 & above

149

2.1

24.7

63.4

9.8

Annual Income (in INR)

Up to 50000

50001 – 100000

100001 – 250000

Above 2.5 lakh

139

8.5

14.9

59.1

17.4

Livestock

Goats

Sheep

Horses

Up to 120

121 – 240

241 – 360

361 – 480

481 & above

Up to 120

121 – 240

241 – 360

361 – 480

481 & above

Up to 5

5 – 10

11 – 15

16 – 20

21 & above

102

118

19.6

39.6

28.9

7.2

4.7

28.9

43.4

17.9

8.9

0.9

0.4

3.4

31.9

50.2

14.0

Source:

The demographic and socioeconomic profiles of the respondents are summarized in table 2. The majority (32.8%; 77/235) of respondents fell in the age group of 66 years and above. However, (54.9%; 129/235) falls in the age group of 36 – 65 years. A total of 77.4 percent of respondents were male, and 22.6 percent were female. They all are practising Islam as their religion. The majority of respondents (64.3% 151/235) had no formal education, while 29.4% (69/235) had primary education and 6.4% (15/235) had upper primary education. Livestock herding was the main livelihood strategy for all 235 respondents. Respondents owned a considerable number of livestock in the area. Reported herd sizes range between 120 and 481 and above sheep and goats, and between up to 5 and 21 and above horses. A total of 59.1% of respondents earn an annual income between 1 lakh and 2.5 lakh.

An EFA with the principal component method and varimax rotation was conducted for the nomadic herders’ perceptions concerning the impact of climate change on the livelihood of nomadic herders using the data collected between December 2021 and July 2022.

Table 3 Reliability and validity of the scale

Dimension/Construct		CR
Temperature and Rainfall		.87
Plant Population		.79
Surface Water		.92
Pasture Land Degradation		.91
Number of Livestock		.84
Change in Seasonal Migration		.91

Source: Data Analysis based on Primary Data

Table 4 Analysis of primary data using factor analysis

Construct and factor

Item

Mean

Factor loading

Variance explained

C.V

Cronbach alpha

Temperature and Rainfall

F1: Rainfall and seasons

Shortage of rainfall in winters

Shortage of rainfall in summers

Seasons have changed

Weather and environmental conditions changed

Winters delayed

F2: Temperature

The temperature rises in recent years

Weather is unstable and unexpected

Summers approaches earlier

Unexpected rainfall and snow in summers

Plant Population

F1: Plant population due to rainfall and herders’ practices

Untimely rainfall

Untimely snowfall

Change in herders' harvesting practices

F2: Plant yield and harvesting practices

Decrease in yield of various plant vegetation

Useful plants have disappeared

Harvesting timing and yield of pasture reduced

Human activities are increased

F3: Plant growth

Fall in plant population good for livestock

The timing of perception has changed

Incidents of forest fires have increased

Surface Water

F1: Water sources

Khads are dried up earlier

Small streams are dried up

Access to water for livestock decreased

Sources of drinking water are shrinking

Walk for the search of drinking water for livestock is increased

Surface water near winter residence become unfit

Drinking water at winter residence are dried-up

Unexpected increase or decrease in the flow of water in streams at the summer residence

Pasture Land Degradation

F1: Grazing areas

The grazing area has been decreased

Pasture land has degraded at winter stay

Forest area has been decreased and turned into agricultural land

Pasture land has degraded at summer stay

F2: Pasture before seasons

Pasture yield has been decreased

Grassland has been dried-up before the season

Pasture at the winter residence turns yellowish before the seasons

Number of Livestock

F1: Livestock number due to pasture

Fall in the number of livestock due to a decrease in pasture

The cost of herding increased

F2: Livestock death due to climate change

Unknown reason for the death of livestock increased

Thunderstorms and unexpected weather conditions caused the death of livestock

Change in Seasonal Migration Pattern/Timing

F1: Seasonal migration paths

Natural ice cover over streams is melting

Unexpected weather increased the uncertainty of migration

The seasonal migration path over the mountains is not cleared

Bridges on the path of seasonal migration are drowned by unexpected weather

F2: Timing of seasonal migration

The timing of seasonal migration is changed

The seasonal migration path is narrowed down by locals for agricultural activities

Stay duration at summer residence is reduced

Stay duration at winter residence is reduced

PP3

PP4

PP9

PP6

PP7

PP5

PP8

PP1

PP2

PP10

SW2

SW1

SW3

SW5

SW7

SW6

SW4

SW8

PLD8

PLD1

PLD7

PLD2

PLD6

PLD4

PLD3

NL1

NL2

NL4

NL3

CMP8

CMP4

CMP5

CMP7

CMP1

CMP6

CMP3

CMP2

4.15

4.00

4.06

4.20

4.10

4.26

4.01

3.91

4.04

3.91

3.83

4.20

4.12

4.02

4.05

4.14

4.08

4.09

4.21

4.23

4.30

4.21

4.25

4.35

4.27

4.25

4.28

4.12

4.20

3.73

4.06

4.16

4.09

4.60

4.13

4.22

4.31

3.92

4.18

4.08

4.19

4.23

4.20

3.94

4.17

4.42

.57

.95

.86

.50

.58

.56

.58

.70

.61

0.65

0.59

0.73

0.82

0.68

0.36

0.47

0.61

0.58

0.83

.54

.52

.50

.51

.55

.47

.50

.52

.62

.53

.80

.63

.43

.49

.60

.55

.69

0.96

.86

.44

.62

.41

.59

.43

.85

.43

.62

.89

.88

.83

.81

.78

.66

.89

.87

.79

.72

.76

.64

.69

.76

.77

.71

.69

.87

.86

.84

.82

.81

.80

.79

.75

.88

.89

.86

.87

.71

.87

.79

.87

.83

.76

.77

.74

.86

.88

.87

.81

.88

.90

46.89 %

33.15 %

33.97 %

22.58 %

17.77 %

67.10 %

39.72 %

27.83 %

40.71 %

29.13 %

47.19 %

31.80 %

.86

.78

.77

.81

.73

.82

.84

.77

.84

.77

.68

.78

.70

.82

.89

.75

.83

.75

.84

.74

.75

.71

.62

.68

.65

.66

.77

.79

.78

.73

.75

.73

.75

.89

.76

.69

.89

.77

.81

.78

.83

.77

.78

.80

.83

.93

.89

.86

.82

.88

.93

.96

.81

.86

.85

.88

.82

Source: Data Analysis based on Primary Survey

The main constructs included in the study were temperature and rainfall, plant population, surface water, pasture land degradation, number of livestock and change in seasonal migration patterns, which were all significantly affected by climate change for nomadic herders. Therefore, the results revealed that climate change has negatively affected the livelihood of nomadic herders in the region. The results obtained would significantly contribute to our discussion regarding the factors that are directly associated with the economic, social and cultural activities of nomadic communities.

The results obtained using factor analysis on the community perceptions regarding the effect of climate change on the livelihood of nomadic herders are given in the following head:

Temperature and Rainfall: As shown in Table 4, the results indicate that increases in temperature and reduced rainfall, and unexpected rainfall are the most important factors that disturb the livelihood of nomadic herders in the region. Respondents agreed that there is a shortage in rainfall at their winter residence (i.e., in the river basins of river Ravi, Basantar River, Tawi, and Nowshera Tawi) (M = 4.15) and at their summer residence (i.e., in the upper region of Padder, Marwah, Dachhan, and Pir Panjal region) (M = 4.00). These inferences that reduced rainfall led to a fall in the growth of pasture beneficial for livestock both at the winter and summer residence, which further resulted in a fall in the quality and quantity of livestock. These results are supported by (Chamliho 2017; Magita and Sangeda 2017) that climate change leads to scarcity of pasture and water, which results in the death of livestock, loss of body conditions and productivity studies. As floods, drought, and rising diseases are induced effects of climate change (Ahmad et al. 2019), which negatively affects and worsen bleak environmental conditions (York et al. 2017; Muricho et al. 2019). A change in seasons (M = 4.06) also negatively impacted their livelihood, winter delaying (M = 4.10), which means that these nomadic herders have to wait for winter nearby places to their winter residence, and have to shear wool from sheep earlier, which further led to an increase in the transportation cost of wool or a cut in the selling price for these herders. Weather and environmental conditions changed (M = 4.20), summers are approaching earlier (M= 3.91), and temperature rises in recent years (M = 4.26) means that these nomadic herders have to start their seasonal migration earlier than usual migration time. The predicted rise in temperature is expected to increase potential evapotranspiration rates in drylands (White and Nackoney 2003) resulting in a shortage of water for livestock and humans. On asking the respondents agreed that, we started seasonal migration after the Baisakhi festival (a harvesting festival celebrated in the north Indian states), but for a few years, we have to start our seasonal migration some 15 to 20 days earlier than Baisakhi. The start of seasonal migration earlier is affected by unstable and unexpected weather (M = 4.01) on the way to their summer migration, and sometimes thunderstorms and hailstorms lead to the death of thousands of livestock.

“Haji Rashid, one of the respondents, started their seasonal migration from Basoli tehsil of Kathua district, heading towards their summer residence outskirts of Padder region of district Kishtwar along with their livestock have claimed that in April 2020 hailstorm have killed approximately 120 sheep and goats in the Jai Valley of Baderwah region.”

Furthermore, unexpected rainfall and snow (M = 4.04) at the summer residence also led to the death of livestock, increased avalanches, and increased water flows in streams, which created difficulty in crossing these streams and sometimes led to the death of humans and livestock. Shemsanga et al. (2010) and Sangeda and Malole (2013) found that climate change adversely impacts all sector economies including livestock production.

Plant Population: Per the perceptions of nomadic herders, untimely rainfall at their winter residence (M = 3.91) and untimely rainfall and snowfall at their summer residence (M = 3.83) have resulted in a decrease in the growth of plants beneficial for livestock. At the winter, the residence growth of plants was reduced and resulted in hunger for livestock, but at their summer residence, the growth of grass was delayed by almost one month, and nomadic herders witnessed a pattern of fall in the productivity of grass in the region. These results are supported by studies (Melesse & Cecchi, 2017) showing rising pressure on natural resources due to rising populations and desertification of rangelands due to environmental changes. This is changing the herders’ herding practices of nomads (M=4.20); for example, when the nomads reached their respective winter residences by mid-November, the women start harvesting dry grass from the nearby forest so that they can use it in difficult times for many years. This dry grass starts disappearing and forces nomadic herders to be dependent on agricultural straw, which raises their cost of herding. For decades, at their winter residence, they do not migrate during winter, but these days they have to migrate to other places that are either occupied by farmers or local residents. For instance, variability in weather and related variables, including delays in rainfall or reduced perceptions, led to a decrease in the yield of various plant vegetation (M = 4.12). Desertification and degradation of grazing lands became commonplace terms in the discussion of nomadic pastoralism (Picardi (1974). One of the respondents,

“Haji Majid, a 94-year-old herder, at his winter residence in Barwal in Kathua, claimed that shrubs including Justicia adhatoda, Bougainvvillea which are beneficial for livestock during the chilling winters nights are sharply reduced in quantity in the area and are replaced by weeds like hysterophorus, Xanthium strumarium, and Latina camara.”

The quantity and quality of other beneficial pastures are also reduced to the extent that survival is reduced by almost one month in an area where a few years ago, we herd our livestock for whole winters. As per the respondents, some useful plants have completely disappeared in the area (M= 4.02) in recent year, such as Bougainvvillea, Limonia acidissima, and Carissa spinarum (Conkerberry). Respondents also witnessed a fall in harvesting time and pasture yield (M = 4.05). They were of the view that we are witnessing plants shedding their leaves before the season so it makes it difficult for us to arrange pasture for our livelihood in the later days at our winter residence and this forced us to arrange stray wheat fields for livestock, it increases the cost of herding and sometimes due to non-availability of pasture during later days results in weakness in the sheep and goats and end-up in death or forced sale. Human activities have also increased in recent years in pasture areas (M = 4.14) due to increased agricultural activities, firewood, timber, and commercial purposes in the area. The timing of perception changed (M = 4.09), as reported by respondents which resulted in the retarded growth of plants, and grass and even did not charge groundwater bodies in a timely manner.

Surface Water: Since the last few years, sources of surface water have dried-up at their winter residence, including Khads, ponds are dried up earlier (M = 4.23), and small streams are dried up (M = 4.30), which results in non-availability of drinking water for livestock and even for nomadic communities in the later days at winter residence. This is raising walk-to sources of drinking water for these communities. A similar study by (Esther et al., 2018) showed that due to drought, livestock have had to trek long distances in search of feed and water. Sources of drinking water, including springs, step-wells (bowling), and wells dried up or shrunk in recent years (M = 4.25). Surface water becomes unfit for drinking due to numerous pollutants. In the summer, residence due to unexpected rainfall, cloudburst, avalanches, and melting of glaciers raised the water level of streams (M = 4.28) and became a hurdle for herders and livestock; sometimes, it drowned small bridges over these streams and disturbed the day-to-day activities of nomadic herders.

Pasture Land Degradation: For a few decades, pasture land has been degraded both at the summer residence (M = 4.06) and at the winter residence (M = 4.20), resulting in shortages of pastures beneficial for the livelihood of livestock of nomads. As per the respondents, grazing areas have decreased (M = 4.12) due to various factors, including untimely rainfall, forest area turned into agricultural lands, a fall in the water table and many more. Reduced grazing areas were directly associated with less pasture for livestock, which further led to a decrease in the number of livestock (M = 4.13), which ultimately affected nomadic herders’ source of income, lowering milk and meat production. These results are supported by Lyimo and Kangalawe (2010) and Magita and Sangeda (2017), who found that lower milk production is associated with inadequate feed and pasture. Climate change has affected pastoralists economically because of feed shortages (Esther et al, 2018). Respondents are of the perception that pasture land has degraded during their winter stay (M = 4.20) and resulted in beneficial plants being replaced by weeds that are poisonous for livestock and decreased pasture yield (M = 4.16). For the last few decades, the delay in rainfall has resulted in the delay in the growth of grass, and other beneficial shrubs have resulted in hunger for livestock. It is reported that grassland (alongside river basins), which is used by nomadic herders to herd sheep at the winter residence, dried up earlier (M = 4.09), and before seasons, this forced them to start seasonal migration earlier. Pasture, including grass, plants and trees, at the winter residence turned yellowish (M = 4.60), which resulted in the scarcity of pasture for livestock.

“Bibi a female respondent, who herd horses (Mules, mares, horse mule, horses, and donkey), is wholly dependent on green pasture, have claimed that for few years, the pasture turn yellowish before the season and we are unable to get pasture for our livestock.”

Number of Livestock: Nomadic herders in the area have continuously witnessed falls in the number of their livestock. Mohd Hakeem, a sheep herder, claimed that he herds almost 1400 sheep some 15 to 20 years ago, and now he owns a herd of 150 to 170. This drastic decrease in number over this period, as he claimed, is the result of the decrease in the pasture (M = 4.13) due to the settlement of villages near the herding area, the conversion of pasture and forest areas into agricultural lands, the decrease in rainfall, and the replacement of pasture plants by weeds in the area. Various studies across the world supported these results, such as degradation and declining grazing areas due to human encroachment, as the increasing population severely affected squeezing natural resources (Udmale et al. 2014; Nyberg et al. 2015). This forced nomadic herders towards pasture areas controlled by locals (the permanent settlers of the area).

Mohd Rehquib, a male respondent whose winter residence is the Raya Bagla area of Samba district, migrates to Marwah tehsil of Kishtwar district via Kashmir Valley, claiming that pasture area has been drastically decreased by building the Central University of Jammu in an area he and many others used to herd now restricted for herding. He claimed that the area is lush green loaded with good pasture with hundreds of Accecia (khair) trees and many other trees. The administration has cleared the forest for the university building. He claimed that this is a great loss for nomads in the area.”

Other reasons that respondents claim for the fall in the number of livestock are the unknown reason for deaths which includes environmental diseases (M = 4.31), thunderstorms and unexpected weather causing the death of livestock (M = 3.92) at mountain passes such as Pir Panjal pass, Shintantop, Margantop, and Chattargala.

Change in Seasonal Migration Pattern: Nomadic herders have claimed that compared to some 7 to 10 years back, these days we start migrating 15 to 20 days and in some cases 20 to 25 days earlier. This is because summers are approaching earlier (M = 3.91), there is a decrease in the pasture in the area, grassland starts to dry up earlier (M = 4.09), and sources of water start sinking. This all led to a change in the timing of migration (M = 4.23), which reduced stay duration at winter residence (M = 4.42) and at summer residence (M = 4.17). On asking about paths of migration, respondents claimed that natural ice covers over the rivers/streams are melting earlier or increasing the probability of sinking (M = 4.18), unexpected weather incidents have increased these days, which affect our migration (M = 4.08), seasonal migration paths over the mountain passes are not melted due to unexpected snowfall, and seasonal migration paths are covered by locals and used for agricultural and other activities.

“Mamdeen, the 79-year-old herder, claimed that due to unexpected snowfall on the way back to their winter’s residence, he had lost almost 35 sheep and goats and 3 horses in the Pir ki Gali area of Pir Panjal.”

Climate change forced nomadic herders for early migration, which led to the death of livestock at mountain passes during unexpected weather, including hailstorms, untimely snow, and intense rain.

We analysed the primary data regarding the perceptions of nomadic herders on various climate change variables in the western Himalayas (Jammu & Kashmir) in India. In conclusion, this study shows that nomadic herders in the region are well aware and are experiencing the impact of climate change in their day-to-day life. First, in the last few decades, they have experienced reduced and untimely rainfall and increased temperature, which ultimately results in the reduced growth of pasture, reduced quality and quantity of pasture, pasture plants being replaced by weedy plants, reduced harvesting time of pasture, drying of sources of water in later days at winter residence, seasons have changed, experiencing unstable weather, and reduced grazing areas are bringing the drought-like situation in the area. Further, this creates major challenges in raising livestock with less pasture, water availability, increased environmental disease risk bringing starvation and death of livestock, reduced milk, wool and meat quality and quantity, and the reduced market price of final goods. This has a serious impact on the economic activities of nomadic herders in the region. These conditions are the reason for financial constraints, and pastoralist households become more vulnerable to shocks (Ngigi et al. 2015).

Climate change also forced the nomadic herders in the region to early migration, which allowed them to face difficulties such as ice over mountain passes, less grass along the paths for grazing, unexpected avalanches, thunderstorms or hailstorms and intense rains on the way to uplands. Therefore, it is concluded that day-by-day climate change is creating serious consequences for the nomadic herders. Hence, while studying the impacts of climate change throughout the world, we should look at observations of these nomadic herders so that effective policies can be framed to cope with the problem of climate change. By integrating the nomadic observations with the scientific observations, we can better forecast weather, and with early warning, the risk of loss of livestock would be minimised in nomadic communities. Finally, this study brings to the notice of policymakers, climatologists, local governments, and animal health departments that climate change is endangering the lives of nomadic herders and we should develop appropriate plans.

Suggestions

Considering the findings of this study, we suggest establishing an information link between nomadic herders and local metrological agencies, local government, climatologists, and animal health care departments to track the sources of water, to guide the nomadic herders the optimum time of seasonal migration so that the risk of environmental diseases, and the sudden death of livestock would be minimised for these nomadic herders’ communities in the region.

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Consent: The participants/respondents consented orally and agreed to publication.

Competing interests: There are no competing interests for clarification with respect to this research paper.

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Impact of climate change on nomadic herders’ livelihoods: a case study of the Bakarwal tribe in the western Himalayas in India

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