Case numbers:
Figure 1 shows the development of MPX case numbers in the observation period. The first MPX cases reported to the Cologne public health department occurred in calendar week (CW) 21. From CW 25 onwards, there was a clear increase in the weekly incidence of MPX cases. This development reached its peak in CW 28 and 29 with 67 reported cases each. In the following weeks, the incidence dropped significantly. On September 17, the last MPX case to date was reported to the Cologne Health Department. From CW 38 onwards, no new cases were recorded in Cologne.
Age and gender:
One infected person was female, the remaining 367 indicated male gender. The age distribution was between 12 and 80 years with a mean age of 41.2 years (SD = 10.4). In Cologne, there was one reported case below the age of 18.
Travel history:
57 infected individuals (15.5 %) had been outside of Germany within the last 21 days prior to the onset of their symptoms (potential incubation period according to RKI (14)) and suspected to have become infected during their travel abroad. We were able to observe that the first 5 index cases in Cologne, which occurred in calendar weeks 21 and 22, had all stayed in other European countries (Spain, France and Belgium) during the incubation period (see Figure 1). In the further course of the outbreak, the proportion of persons with a history of recent foreign travel decreased significantly. In calendar weeks 28 and 29, only 13.4 % of the infected stated that they had been abroad during the incubation period and that they presumably had become infected during that time. Since CW 34 the observed origins of infection lay exclusively in Germany. None of the infected persons throughout the whole observation period had entered Germany from African countries prior to infection.
Pre-existing conditions:
A total of 143 persons (38.9 %) reported a known HIV infection. Some individuals reported other sexually transmitted diseases in their medical history; however, we did not systematically record these throughout. In a few cases each, the following pre-existing conditions were mentioned (listed in decreasing frequency): arterial hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, thyroid diseases, bronchial asthma, chronic inflammatory bowel diseases, and rheumatic diseases. 16 persons (4.3 %) had contracted COVID-19 at the same time as the monkeypox infection.
Previous or recent vaccination history:
96 individuals (26.1 %) reported having received smallpox vaccination in the past with the vaccine based on vaccinia virus or modified vaccinia ankara virus (MVA) used in the Federal Republic of Germany until 1976 and in the GDR until 1982.
33 persons (9.0 %) had already received a vaccination with the smallpox vaccine Imvanex at the time of diagnosis. This was offered as post-exposure prophylaxis for contact persons of exposure category 3 according to the criteria of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI; German federal government agency and research Institute, responsible for disease control and prevention) from June 20, 2022 onwards in accordance with the Standing Committee on Vaccination at the Robert Koch Institute (STIKO) recommendations, and as a pre-exposure vaccination for people at higher risk of infection in the further course of the outbreak. Out of these 33, 19 persons (5.2 %) received Imvanex as post-exposure vaccination and 14 persons (3.8 %) as pre-exposure prophylaxis. 6 individuals (1.6 %) received both childhood smallpox vaccination and current Imvanex vaccination. All persons vaccinated against smallpox showed symptomatic courses of Monkeypox. The remaining 66.3 % of the infected persons denied a previous smallpox vaccination or were unable to provide any reliable information on the matter.
Route of infection:
In the evaluation, a distinction is made between sexual contacts, both within and outside of one's own household, and other contacts. Household transmission without sexual contact was rare. 248 persons (67.4 %) stated that they had presumably become infected through sexual contacts; 247 of these were reported as sexual contacts between men. 17 persons (4.6 %) suspected infection via non-sexual physical contact. 3 persons (0.8 %) suspected that they had been infected through fomites. In one case, transmission occurred via shared use of an insect bite heat pen. 18 persons (4.9 %) suspected a route of infection in the context of an event (festival or club attendance) without sexual contact or other close physical contact. Furthermore, 3 persons (0.8 %) indicated work contact as a probable source of infection. 79 persons (21.5 %) did not provide any information about a possible source of infection (see Figure 3).
45 persons (12.2 %) suspected having been infected with monkeypox through contacts while attending the Christopher Street Day (CSD) in Cologne (July 01 - 03, 2022). A confirmed source of infection, i.e. contact with a person who had tested positive, could be stated by 73 infected persons (19.8 %).
Incubation period:
209 persons (56.8 %) were able to name the date of the exposure to the suspected or subsequently confirmed source of infection. For those cases, we were able to calculate the incubation period as difference between symptom onset and date of exposure. The results are presented in Figure 4. In the observed group, the onset of symptoms occurred between 1 and 31 days after exposure. The mean incubation period was 8.2 days (SD = 4.7). In 77.5 % of cases, the incubation period was 10 or fewer days. When looking at only the incubation periods of cases with a confirmed source of infection, values between 2 and 20 days could be observed. For those cases, the mean incubation period was 7.6 days (SD = 4.1). We fitted a lognormal distribution to the observed incubation periods, as it visually matched the empirical probability density function and has already been used for MPX incubation periods by Miura et al. (15). Using this distribution, we estimated the mean incubation period to be 8.3 days (95% CI = 6.6 – 10.4) with an estimated standard deviation of 5.2.
Clinical course:
Skin and/or mucosal lesions occurred in 361 cases (98.1 %) during the observation period. 3 persons (0.8 %), in whom the MPX virus was detected via oral or rectal swab, did not show any symptoms during the period of isolation. 110 infected persons (29.9 %) initially showed exclusively non-specific symptoms, such as fatigue, fever or lymphadenopathy in the sense of a prodromal stage. In these persons, it took an average of 3.2 days until the first appearance of skin changes (SD = 2.0). Accordingly, 258 persons (70.1 %) showed skin and/or mucosal lesions as the first symptom. We observed that the lesions usually passed through different stages and were described as non-specific insect bite-like and itchy at the beginning, and as painful pustules, vesicles or crusts in the further course of the disease. Figure 5 shows the different stages of a perioral skin lesion, from the first appearance until the crust falls off, which were photographically documented by an affected person.
The average duration from onset until absence of symptoms was 15.7 days (SD = 5.2, 95 % CI = 15.2 – 16.2) (Figure 6). In 45 subjects (12.2 %), mandated isolation had to be extended beyond the required minimum of 21 days due to persistent skin lesions. The mean time between the first appearance of skin or mucosal lesions and the date the swab was taken was 5.4 days (SD = 3.8).
The occurrence of skin efflorescences was described in all body regions. They occurred either localized or disseminated. 249 persons (67.7 %) reported efflorescences in the anogenital region, making this the most frequent localisation in the observed group. 86 persons (23.4 %) reported skin lesions on at least 3 different body regions. We observed that the lesions generally appeared and healed asynchronously, especially between the individual localisations. The primary lesion was often located in the area of the presumed site of inoculation.
Mucosal lesions and/or characteristic symptoms (anorectal pain, haematochezia; alguria, haematuria; sore throat, difficulty swallowing) were described by 147 infected persons (39.9 %). In 98 persons (26.6 %), anorectal mucosal lesions were presumed due to the described symptoms. Oral mucosal lesions were present in 56 persons (15.2 %), 12 persons (3.3 %) reported signs of urethral mucosal involvement. 28 individuals (7.6 %) initially presented exclusively with symptoms caused by mucosal lesions.
340 persons (92.4 %) described general symptoms in addition to skin/mucosal lesions during the course of the disease. These are listed below in descending order of frequency: fatigue fever, night sweats, and muscle/limb pain (Figure 7). Swollen and/or painful lymph nodes were seen in 192 persons (52.2 %), most commonly in the inguinal and/or cervical region. It was observed that the general symptoms mostly manifested at the beginning of the infection, often either at the same time as or shortly after the first skin lesions. Similar to the study of Patel et al., 7 persons (1.9 %) in this observation group also reported an urticaria-like rash, which subsided after two to three days (16).
Many infected persons reported increased psychological stress at the beginning or in the further course of the isolation.
In the observed group, hospitalisation was necessary for 13 persons (3.5 %). 2 individuals (0.5 %) received antiviral therapy with Tecovirimat. In no case was treatment in an intensive care unit required due to the monkeypox infection. There were no deaths associated with the MPX virus in Cologne during the observation period.