The core challenges of our era are climate change, poverty, and food insecurity. Due to heavy reliance on fossil fuels, no country on the planet Earth can be considered safe from the effects of climate change. Climate change may force 216 million people to relocate within their homelands by 2050 (1), especially in the world's most food-insecure countries. Climate change can also cause disasters such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, leading to many consequences, among which food insecurity is inevitable. According to UNICEF, more than one billion children are in grave danger from hazardous climate impacts (2). The world has witnessed one of the most recent disasters of flood in Pakistan due to climate change. This flood in Pakistan has created food insecurity along with many other problems.
Climate change is impacting south Asia at a much rapid pace. The statistics (3-9) of three countries in south Asia are shown in Figure 1. The detailed statistics show that Pakistan is among the countries which contribute less than 1% to carbon emission globally but is a victim of rapid climate change, while the two highest CO2 and greenhouse gasses emission countries in the world are, i.e., China and India. As one of several countries, Pakistan is going through climate-related tragedy due to flooding.
The most extensive floods in Pakistan have submerged more than a third of the country. After millions of acres of crops are flooded, and hundreds of thousands of cattle are killed, food supplies are running low as lethal floods threaten to produce secondary tragedies. As a result of heat waves in past years due to climate change, the hotter the air, the more moisture it can contain, leading to a greater likelihood of frequent and intense downpours. It also accelerates glacier melt, a significant problem in Pakistan since the nation has more ice sheets than anywhere else on Earth outside of the polar regions. Pakistan is in the midst of a food and health crisis due to catastrophic flooding. Prior to the floods, 27 million people in the country lacked access to adequate food; (10) now, the threat of widespread famine is much more imminent.
According to United Nations, (11) a total of 33 million people have been severely affected by the flood, and 6.4 million are in dire need. 5.2 million people have lost their property and agricultural land. Figure 2 (a) shows the flooded districts in Pakistan with mild, moderate, and severe effects. The severely affected district has 50k to 130k destroyed cum damaged houses, moderately affected districts from the flood have 5k to 50k destroyed cum damaged houses and mildly affected areas have 500 to 5k damaged houses. A total of 803.4k houses have been demolished, and 1.21 million are partially affected, raising the total number of affected houses to 2 million, with the highest number of 1.8 million in Sindh, 91k in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 72k in Baluchistan, 69k in Punjab and 1.2k in Gilgit Baltistan.
Losses and damage to the agricultural and food production sectors are enormous. The impact has been disproportionately significant in Sindh, and Baluchistan provinces as shown in Figure 2 (b), which will have the most significant impact on the already severely food insecure conditions in the vulnerable regions, and the situation will worsen if the rains continue. Approximately 2 million acres of agricultural land, including crops and orchards, have been damaged; 304,000 acres are in Baluchistan; 178,000 acres are in Punjab, and about 1.50 million acres are in Sindh. Due to the recent disaster, almost 719,000 animals and birds have perished in the livestock sector. This includes about 500,000 in Baluchistan, 202,593 in Punjab, 14,927 in Sindh, and 8,767 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone as shown in Figure 2 (c) (12). Approximately 3.5 million people are estimated to be food insecure in 17 out of the 59 calamity-affected districts which were covered in the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), acute food insecurity analysis, conducted jointly in the first week of July 2022 by FAO, WFP, NGOs, and federal and provincial government ministries and departments. About 2.5 million people live in Sindh, whereas 1 million reside in Baluchistan.
Furthermore, it is anticipated that 7.7 million people live in the 42 districts that have reached IPC stages 3 and 4 (Crisis and Emergency). Only around 1.91 million of the projected 6.4 million people in need are in IPC stages 3 and 4, but they still need food security and agriculture support. Around 510,000 of these people are expected to fall into the IPC 4 category (emergency) (13). However, the magnitude of the flood catastrophe and the continuing rains suggest that the number of food insecure people is likely to rise dramatically.
The essential crops cultivation areas and production (average per year) for the past four years (2017-21) before the flood in Pakistan were as: Wheat: 8.869 million hectares;25.534 million tons, Rice: 3.019 million hectares; 7.621 million tons, Sugarcane: 1.162 million hectares; 74.473 million tons, Cotton: 2.417 million hectares; 9504.575 thousand bales of 375 lbs. each. Pakistan's economy is driven primarily by the agricultural sector. It is the primary source of exports and contributes around 24% of GDP (14). As the flood hit Pakistan, direct losses to three crops, rice, cotton, and sugarcane, equaled $1.30 billion (rice: USD 543 million, cotton: USD 485 million, sugarcane: USD 273 million). Losses of USD 374 million are expected for three crucial crops in the afflicted regions, with the most significant losses in Thatta, Badin, and Mirpur. Estimates put the direct damage to livestock in the province at roughly USD 13 million due to the deaths of 42,273 animals (including sheep, goats, camels, cows, buffaloes, and donkeys). Estimated direct losses to crop production and animals are just the beginning of the economic losses in agriculture. The economic losses would undoubtedly be exacerbated by the direct damage and loss of agricultural equipment, farm, and rural infrastructure, and trees (15). There will be deeper and longer-lasting effects on Pakistan's agriculture due to the indirect costs of draining and land rehabilitation; the increased cost of transportation due to damaged roads and infrastructure; the losses in succeeding crop cycles due to water logging and delays in sowing; and the government's rehabilitation and compensation support. Recent floods in Pakistan have wiped off the country's status as the world's fifth-largest cotton exporter and the fourth-largest rice exporter. Any delay would affect the seeding of winter crops, especially wheat, which accounted for 72% of the daily calorie intake for people.
Numerous healthcare institutions in affected regions have been devastated by the continuous torrential rains and floods. In Sindh alone, 501 healthcare facilities have been damaged, including 88 destroyed. Concerning the health care facilities in Punjab, there is presently no information accessible. As a result of the severe weather and its effects, access problems have arisen, which have affected service provision to flood-affected people. Damaged roads make it difficult for the affected population to reach health centers and hospitals and for the supply chain to continue restocking essential medicines and other medical supplies (13). According to International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Medical Emergency Resilience Foundation (MERF), 52% of the flood-affected population reported health as a priority, and 40% reported that health services were inaccessible to them, and 86% of flood victims worry about medical care access (16). Both reports mentioned diarrhea, malaria, dengue fever, skin infections, and respiratory tract infections as significant health problems. Pakistan is experiencing an ongoing epidemic of acute watery diarrhea (AWD), which has now spread to 45 districts throughout the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab, and the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT). The current flooding might potentially make a cholera epidemic worse. Many of the affected population remain in areas with standing water, and their access to essential health services has been compromised, raising the risk of outbreaks of waterborne and vector-borne diseases. This is expected to result in more casualties and infrastructure damage as the situation deteriorates. Women and children comprise over 70% of the afflicted population, with 25% being women of reproductive age and 4–5% being girls between the ages of 10 and 14; 15% of the pregnant women in the disaster-affected population face problems. The women are facing severe vitamin and nutrient deficiency, leading to malnutrition. All these medical conditions are because of food insecurity, which is spreading rapidly throughout the country (17).
Children, teenagers, and PLW (pregnant and lactating women) in flood-prone communities already suffered from malnutrition before the monsoon hit. Several types of malnutrition, such as wasting, stunting, and micronutrient deficiencies, were identified as pervasive public health problems in Pakistan by the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) in 2018 (18). Those at risk, such as pregnant and lactating mothers and children under five, should be given special attention to ensure their nutritional needs and any potential dangers associated with a disease epidemic are well monitored. The massive devastation and loss of livelihoods are likely to dramatically raise the prevalence of wasting among young children, which is now at 17.7%. 71% of Pakistani families are food insecure, with the lowest wealth quintile being hit the most. Consequently, an increase in malnutrition cases is anticipated due to these severe floods, with the most significant effect seen by those already at risk. A preliminary evaluation of the situation in Baluchistan found that the regions hit worst by the recent floods had inadequate nutrition solutions. Food instability and a decline in nutritional status are particularly concerning for young children and PLW in flood-affected communities. Nutritional therapies that can save lives are thus an immediate need. In the next six months, an estimated 1.4 million of the 6.4 million individuals in acute need will need nutritional assistance (13).
In a nutshell, the flood wiped off one-third of Pakistan's agricultural land and lead to severe food insecurity, which will worsen in the coming months. The effects of climate change and severe weather effects food supply systems that ripple across the economy and different areas. The country's growth is directly linked to agriculture production and reduction in transition costs. As the direct and indirect losses to crops pose significant losses to GDP that will lead to the highest ever inflation in the country, up to 35%, which is currently 27.6% year-on-year CPI. As Pakistan’s exports decline, this will affect the food chain at the world level as it is among the top ten exporters of rice, cotton, and sugarcane. To ensure food security, a two-pronged proactive approach will help the country move forward, which involves rightly estimating optimal farming duration cum weather using AI and taking measures to lower carbon emissions with the final goal of bringing emissions to the lowest level. Decarbonization, a necessary action to mitigate climate change, can be accomplished using carbon capture, renewable energy, and switching to low-carbon fuels like natural gas and renewable fuels.