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Original Contribution
Temperature, Precipitation, Ozone Pollution, and Daily Fatal Unintentional Injuries in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2017
Leon Robertson
Yale University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1206-4496
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Injury Epidemiology.
Background The correlation of unintentional injury mortality to rising temperatures found in several studies could result from changes in behavior that increases exposure to hazards or risk when exposed. Temperature, precipitation and air pollutants may contribute to symptoms and distractions that increase risk or avoidance behavior that reduces risk. This study examines data that allows estimates of the relation of daily maximum temperature, precipitation and ozone pollution to injury mortality risk, each corrected statistically for the correlation with the others.
Methods Daily data on unintentional injury deaths and exposures to temperature, precipitation and ozone in 9 cities in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2017 were analyzed using Poisson regression. The regression estimates were adjusted for weekends, holidays, an anomalous difference in death rates in Nanjing, and population size.
Results Non transport injury death risk increased substantially in relation to higher temperatures when temperatures were in the moderate range and even more so at temperatures 35 degrees (C) and higher. Transport deaths were related to increasing deaths when temperatures were low but the correlation reversed at higher temperatures. Deaths were lower on rainy days when temperatures were cool and moderate with the exception of non-transport injuries when temperatures were moderate. Higher ozone concentrations were associated with more deaths except when temperatures were low. Injury mortality on weekends and holidays varied in relation to temperature as well.
Conclusions The variations in deaths in relation to temperature, precipitation and ozone suggest that people are behaving differently or are in different environments when specific combinations of the predictor variables are prevalent, putting them at greater or less risk. More study of the behaviors and circumstances that result in injury under those conditions is needed.
Keywords
unintentional injury mortality, temperature, air pollution, avoidance behavior
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CURRENT STATUS: Published
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Posted 16 Jun, 2020
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On 27 Jul, 2020
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On 16 Jun, 2020
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On 16 Jun, 2020
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On 15 Jun, 2020
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Editorial decision: Major revision
On 01 Jun, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 29 May, 2020
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Review #5 received
Received 28 May, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 28 May, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewer #5 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 May, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 May, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 07 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 07 May, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 May, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 05 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 May, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 25 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 22 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 22 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 13 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Apr, 2020
First submitted
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This preprint is under consideration at Injury Epidemiology. A preprint is a preliminary version of a manuscript that has not completed peer review at a journal. Research Square does not conduct peer review prior to posting preprints. The posting of a preprint on this server should not be interpreted as an endorsement of its validity or suitability for dissemination as established information or for guiding clinical practice.
Learn more about In Review
Original Contribution
Temperature, Precipitation, Ozone Pollution, and Daily Fatal Unintentional Injuries in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2017
Leon Robertson
Yale University
Corresponding Author
ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1206-4496
Badges
Prescreen
This manuscript passed our Prescreen assessment
Complete author information
Appropriate declaration statements
Potential risks to human health
Prescreen
Peer Review Timeline
CURRENT STATUS: Published
Version 3
Posted 16 Jun, 2020
Published
On 27 Jul, 2020
No community comments so far
Editor assigned
On 16 Jun, 2020
Editorial decision: Accept
On 16 Jun, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 15 Jun, 2020
Editor invited
On 15 Jun, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 01 Jun, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 29 May, 2020
Review #4 received
Received 29 May, 2020
Review #5 received
Received 28 May, 2020
Review #3 received
Received 28 May, 2020
Reviewer #3 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewer #4 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewer #5 agreed
On 08 May, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 07 May, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 07 May, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 07 May, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 07 May, 2020
Editor assigned
On 06 May, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 05 May, 2020
Editor invited
On 05 May, 2020
No comments provided
Editorial decision: Major revision
On 25 Apr, 2020
Review #2 received
Received 22 Apr, 2020
Review #1 received
Received 22 Apr, 2020
Editor assigned
On 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewers invited
Invitations sent on 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #1 agreed
On 13 Apr, 2020
Reviewer #2 agreed
On 13 Apr, 2020
Submission checks complete
On 12 Apr, 2020
Editor invited
On 12 Apr, 2020
First submitted
On 08 Apr, 2020
Metrics
Comments: 0
PDF Downloads: ...
HTML Views: ...
License:
This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License. Read Full License
View the published version at Injury Epidemiology.
Background The correlation of unintentional injury mortality to rising temperatures found in several studies could result from changes in behavior that increases exposure to hazards or risk when exposed. Temperature, precipitation and air pollutants may contribute to symptoms and distractions that increase risk or avoidance behavior that reduces risk. This study examines data that allows estimates of the relation of daily maximum temperature, precipitation and ozone pollution to injury mortality risk, each corrected statistically for the correlation with the others.
Methods Daily data on unintentional injury deaths and exposures to temperature, precipitation and ozone in 9 cities in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2017 were analyzed using Poisson regression. The regression estimates were adjusted for weekends, holidays, an anomalous difference in death rates in Nanjing, and population size.
Results Non transport injury death risk increased substantially in relation to higher temperatures when temperatures were in the moderate range and even more so at temperatures 35 degrees (C) and higher. Transport deaths were related to increasing deaths when temperatures were low but the correlation reversed at higher temperatures. Deaths were lower on rainy days when temperatures were cool and moderate with the exception of non-transport injuries when temperatures were moderate. Higher ozone concentrations were associated with more deaths except when temperatures were low. Injury mortality on weekends and holidays varied in relation to temperature as well.
Conclusions The variations in deaths in relation to temperature, precipitation and ozone suggest that people are behaving differently or are in different environments when specific combinations of the predictor variables are prevalent, putting them at greater or less risk. More study of the behaviors and circumstances that result in injury under those conditions is needed.
Figure 1
Figure 2