Baseline Characteristics of participants
As shown in Table 1, there were a total of 78,304 Chinese participants in our study. In the development group, there were 23,265 women and 31,608 men with an average age of 44.6 years. The average values of age, TP, ALB, GLB, TB, BUN, Cr, eGFR, UA, FPG, TC, LDL-c and BMI were larger in patients with NAFLD than in patients with non-NAFLD. The median values of GGT, ALT, AST, TG and AIP were greater in patients with NAFLD than in patients with non-NAFLD. There was the same trend in the validation group. In the Japanese participants, we included 11,598 NAFLD and 1334 non-NAFLD. The values of age, GGT, ALT, BMI, AIP, TG and FPG were greater in patients with NAFLD than in patients with non-NAFLD (Table S1).
Table 1
Baseline Characteristics of the Chinese Study Participants
Characteristic | Development Group | Validation Group |
| Non-NAFLD | NAFLD | P-value | Non-NAFLD | NAFLD | P-value |
No. of participants | 45969 | 8904 | | 19742 | 3689 | |
Age | 43.7 ± 15.6 | 49.4 ± 13.5 | < 0.001 | 43.6 ± 15.6 | 49.7 ± 13.8 | < 0.001 |
GGT(U/L) | 19.0 (15.0,27.0) | 33.0 (24.0,51.0) | < 0.001 | 19.0(15.0,27.0) | 33.0(24.0,51.0) | < 0.001 |
ALT(U/L) | 15.0 (12.0,21.0) | 24.0 (18.0,34.0) | < 0.001 | 15.0(12.0,21.0) | 24.0(17.0,34.0) | < 0.001 |
AST(U/L) | 20.0 (18.0,24.0) | 24.0 (20.0,28.0) | < 0.001 | 20.0(18.0,24.0) | 23.0(20.0,28.0) | < 0.001 |
TP(U/L) | 73.6 ± 4.4 | 74.3 ± 4.3 | < 0.001 | 73.5 ± 4.4 | 74.3 ± 4.4 | < 0.001 |
ALB(U/L) | 44.5 ± 2.8 | 45.0 ± 2.7 | < 0.001 | 44.5 ± 2.8 | 45.0 ± 2.7 | < 0.001 |
GLB(U/L) | 29.0 ± 4.0 | 29.3 ± 4.1 | < 0.001 | 29.0 ± 3.9 | 29.4 ± 4.1 | < 0.001 |
TB(mmol/L) | 12.5 ± 5.0 | 12.6 ± 4.9 | 0.012 | 12.5 ± 5.2 | 12.6 ± 4.9 | 0.004 |
DBIL(mmol/L) | 1.8 (1.3,2.4) | 1.8 (1.4,2.5) | < 0.001 | 1.8 (1.3,2.4) | 1.9 (1.4,2.5) | < 0.001 |
BUN(mmol/L) | 4.4 ± 1.4 | 4.7 ± 1.3 | < 0.001 | 4.4 ± 1.4 | 4.7 ± 1.4 | < 0.001 |
Cr(mmol/L) | 81.2 ± 24.2 | 86.9 ± 18.5 | < 0.001 | 81.3 ± 25.5 | 88.1 ± 23.9 | < 0.001 |
Cr(umol/L) | 0.9 ± 0.3 | 1.0 ± 0.2 | < 0.001 | 0.9 ± 0.3 | 1.0 ± 0.3 | < 0.001 |
eGFR(mL/min/1.73 m2) | 66.9 ± 13.3 | 64.4 ± 14.0 | < 0.001 | 66.8 ± 13.0 | 63.8 ± 15.5 | < 0.001 |
UA(µmol/L) | 278.5 ± 85.7 | 345.7 ± 86.8 | < 0.001 | 279.1 ± 85.6 | 347.6 ± 89.0 | < 0.001 |
FPG(mmol/L) | 5.2 ± 0.8 | 5.7 ± 1.4 | < 0.001 | 5.2 ± 0.8 | 5.7 ± 1.3 | < 0.001 |
TC(mmol/L) | 4.5 ± 0.7 | 4.8 ± 0.8 | < 0.001 | 4.5 ± 0.7 | 4.8 ± 0.8 | < 0.001 |
TG(mmol/L) | 1.0 (0.8,1.4) | 1.8 (1.3,2.6) | < 0.001 | 1.0 (0.8,1.4) | 1.8 (1.4,2.6) | < 0.001 |
HDL-c(mmol/L) | 1.5 ± 0.3 | 1.2 ± 0.3 | < 0.001 | 1.5 ± 0.3 | 1.2 ± 0.3 | < 0.001 |
LDL-c(mmol/L) | 2.3 ± 0.5 | 2.4 ± 0.5 | < 0.001 | 2.3 ± 0.5 | 2.4 ± 0.5 | < 0.001 |
BMI(kg/m2) | 21.3 ± 2.1 | 23.4 ± 1.2 | < 0.001 | 21.3 ± 2.0 | 23.4 ± 1.2 | < 0.001 |
AIP | -0.1 (-0.3,0.0) | 0.2 (0.0,0.4) | < 0.001 | -0.1 (-0.3,0.0) | 0.2 (0.0,0.4) | < 0.001 |
Sex | | | < 0.001 | | | < 0.001 |
Female | 21650 (47.1%) | 1615 (18.1%) | | 9289 (47.1%) | 654 (17.7%) | |
Male | 24319 (52.9%) | 7289 (81.9%) | | 10453 (52.9%) | 3035 (82.3%) | |
The results of univariate and multivariate regression analysis in the development group
Univariate and multivariate regression analysis results were shown in Table 2. Univariate logistic regression results indicated that men were at higher risk of NAFLD than women. Higher age, GGT, ALT, AST, TP, ALB, GLB, TB, DBIL, BUN, Cr, UA, FPG, TC, TG, LDL-c, BMI and AIP were seen in patients with NAFLD relative to those with non-NAFLD, which indicated that these variables are risk factors in the progress of fatty livers. While eGFR and HDL-c were lower in patients with NAFLD relative to those with non-NAFLD, indicating that these variables are protective factors. To exclude the mutual influence of these variables, we analyzed these variables with VIF < 10 using the multivariate regression model. Our results showed that age, GGT, ALT, ALB, DBIL, UA, FPG, LDL-c, BMI and AIP were independent positive correlation factors in the progress of fatty livers, among which AIP was the strongest one.
Table 2
Results of univariate and multivariate regression analysis in development cohort
Exposure | Univariate | Multivariate | |
| OR | (95%CI) | P value | OR | (95%CI) | P value |
Sex | | | | | | |
Female | Reference | Reference | | Reference | | |
Male | 4.02 | (3.80, 4.25) | < 0.001 | 0.77 | (0.71, 0.84) | < 0.001 |
Age | 1.02 | (1.02, 1.02) | < 0.001 | 1.01 | (1.01, 1.02) | < 0.001 |
GGT(U/L) | 1.02 | (1.02, 1.02) | < 0.001 | 1.00 | (1.00, 1.01) | < 0.001 |
ALT(U/L) | 1.04 | (1.04, 1.04) | < 0.001 | 1.03 | (1.03, 1.03) | < 0.001 |
AST(U/L) | 1.03 | (1.03, 1.04) | < 0.001 | 0.97 | (0.96, 0.97) | < 0.001 |
TP(U/L) | 1.04 | (1.03, 1.05) | < 0.001 | | | |
ALB(U/L) | 1.07 | (1.06, 1.08) | < 0.001 | 1.06 | (1.05, 1.07) | < 0.001 |
GLB(U/L) | 1.01 | (1.01, 1.02) | < 0.001 | 1.00 | (0.99, 1.01) | |
TB(mmol/L) | 1.01 | (1.00, 1.01) | < 0.05 | 0.99 | (0.98, 0.99) | < 0.001 |
DBIL(mmol/L) | 1.07 | (1.04, 1.09) | < 0.001 | 1.10 | (1.07, 1.14) | < 0.001 |
BUN(mmol/L) | 1.13 | (1.11, 1.15) | < 0.001 | 0.94 | (0.92, 0.96) | < 0.001 |
Cr(mmol/L) | 1.01 | (1.01, 1.01) | < 0.001 | | | |
EGFR(mL/min/1.73 m2) | 0.99 | (0.98, 0.99) | < 0.001 | | | |
UA(µmol/L) | 1.01 | (1.01, 1.01) | < 0.001 | 1.00 | (1.00, 1.00) | < 0.001 |
FPG(mmol/L) | 1.55 | (1.51, 1.59) | < 0.001 | 1.23 | (1.20, 1.26) | < 0.001 |
TC(mmol/L) | 1.70 | (1.64, 1.75) | < 0.001 | 1.06 | (0.99, 1.14) | |
TG(mmol/L) | 2.62 | (2.55, 2.69) | < 0.001 | 0.92 | (0.88, 0.96) | < 0.001 |
HDL-c(mmol/L) | 0.11 | (0.10, 0.12) | < 0.001 | | | |
LDL-c(mmol/L) | 2.18 | (2.07, 2.29) | < 0.001 | 1.29 | (1.16, 1.42) | < 0.001 |
BMI | 2.06 | (2.02, 2.09) | < 0.001 | 1.69 | (1.65, 1.72) | < 0.001 |
AIP | 52.30 | (47.64, 57.41) | < 0.001 | 15.65 | (12.85, 19.05) | < 0.001 |
Independent Effect Of Aip On The Incidence Of Nafld
As shown in Table 3, the unadjusted odds ratio (OR) for everyone SD increase in AIP was 52.30 (OR:52.30, 95% CI, 47.64–57.41, p < 0.001). When we adjusted age, GGT, ALT, ALB, DBIL, UA, FPG, LDL-C and BMI (adjusted model I), the OR for every one SD increase in AIP was 36.57 (OR: 36.57, 95% CI: 33.20–40.29; p < 0.001). After full adjustment for sex, Age, GGT, ALT, AST, TP, ALB, GLB, TB, DBIL, BUN, Cr, UA, FPG, TC, TG, LDL-c and BMI (adjusted model II), the OR for every one SD increase in AIP was 50.84 (OR: 50.84, 95% CI: 38.22–67.63; p < 0.001). With OR > 1 in three models, AIP was positively correlated with NAFLD and the results were stable (Fig.S1). For further sensitivity analysis, we converted AIP to categorical variable processing, and the results obtained were consistent (Table 3). The similar results were seen in the Japanese population (Table S2). Considering that AIP, age, GGT, ALT, ALB, eGFR, DBIL, UA, FPG, LDL-c and BMI were independent risk factors for NAFLD, we evaluated their diagnostic performance for NAFLD. AIP, the highest AUROC in these indicators, had the better discrimination capacity (AUROC: 0.803, 95% CI: 0.798–0.808) in the development group (Fig. 1 and Table 4). DBIL gave the worst performance (AUROC: 0.516, 95% CI: 0.509–0.523). In the validation group, BMI performed the best (AUROC: 0.808, 95% CI: 0.801–0.814). AIP ranked second (AUROC: 0.802, 95% CI: 0.795–0.810). AIP had also the better discrimination capacity (AUROC: 0.798, 95% CI: 0.787–0.810) in the Japanese group (Fig.S2 and Table S3). Then we determined the best cut-off value based on the maximum Youden index of the AUROC curve. As shown in Fig. 2, the best cut-off value of AIP in the discrimination between NAFLD and non-NAFLD was 0.005 in the Chinese group and was − 0.220 in the Japanese group, respectively.
Table 3
Effect modification of WHTR on incidence of NAFLD
Variable | Unadjusted | Adjusted Model I | Adjusted Model II |
| OR (95%CI) | P value | OR (95%CI) | P value | OR (95%CI) | P value |
WHTR (Per SD) | 52.30(47.64–57.41) | < 0.001 | 36.57 (33.20-40.29) | < 0.001 | 50.84 (38.22–67.63) | < 0.001 |
WHTR (quartile) | | | | | | |
Q1 | Reference | | Reference | | Reference | |
Q2 | 3.18 (2.78–3.63) | < 0.001 | 2.67 (2.34–3.05) | < 0.001 | 1.80 (1.56–2.08) | < 0.001 |
Q3 | 7.91 (6.98–8.96) | < 0.001 | 5.88 (5.18–6.68) | < 0.001 | 2.74 (2.37–3.18) | < 0.001 |
Q4 | 28.67(25.41–32.35) | < 0.001 | 19.64 (17.36–22.23) | < 0.001 | 5.04 (4.26–5.95) | < 0.001 |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
Model I adjusted for sex, age |
Model II adjusted for sex, age, GGT, ALT, AST, TP, ALB, GLB, TB, DBIL, BUN, Cr, eGFR, UA, FPG, TC, TG, HDL-c, LDL-c, BMI. |
CI: confidence interval.SD = 0.29 |
Table 4
ROC analysis for different continuous predictors in development and validation groups
| Development cohort | Validation cohort |
| AUROC | 95%CI | Cut-off pot | Specificity | Sensitivity | AUROC | 95%CI | Cut-off pot | Specificity | Sensitivity |
Age | 0.633 | 0.627–0.638 | 40.500 | 0.511 | 0.717 | 0.637 | 0.629–0.646 | 40.500 | 0.512 | 0.724 |
ALT | 0.750 | 0.745–0.756 | 17.500 | 0.623 | 0.759 | 0.746 | 0.738–0.754 | 17.500 | 0.626 | 0.743 |
GGT | 0.772 | 0.768–0.777 | 22.500 | 0.639 | 0.792 | 0.772 | 0.765–0.780 | 23.500 | 0.672 | 0.757 |
FPG | 0.653 | 0.646–0.659 | 5.195 | 0.615 | 0.610 | 0.651 | 0.641–0.661 | 5.225 | 0.640 | 0.578 |
ALB | 0.558 | 0.551–0.564 | 44.650 | 0.517 | 0.573 | 0.556 | 0.546–0.566 | 44.650 | 0.523 | 0.561 |
eGFR | 0.562 | 0.556–0.569 | 67.165 | 0.479 | 0.625 | 0.577 | 0.567–0.587 | 64.485 | 0.569 | 0.554 |
DBIL | 0.516 | 0.509–0.523 | 2.150 | 0.676 | 0.359 | 0.530 | 0.519–0.540 | 1.850 | 0.547 | 0.508 |
UA | 0.716 | 0.710–0.721 | 295.500 | 0.609 | 0.716 | 0.717 | 0.708–0.725 | 291.500 | 0.589 | 0.736 |
LDL-c, | 0.605 | 0.599–0.612 | 2.375 | 0.5740 | 0.591 | 0.604 | 0.594–0.614 | 2.385 | 0.584 | 0.579 |
BMI | 0.802 | 0.798–0.807 | 22.335 | 0.647 | 0.826 | 0.808 | 0.801–0.814 | 22.285 | 0.645 | 0.836 |
AIP | 0.803 | 0.798–0.808 | 0.005 | 0.715 | 0.752 | 0.802 | 0.795–0.810 | 0.025 | 0.735 | 0.733 |
The unit is mmol/L: HDL-c, LDL-c, GGT, DBIL, FPG and UA; The unit is U/L: ALT and ALB. |
The Results Of Subgroup Analysis
Subgroup analysis was shown in Table 5. The test for interactions was significant for sex, Age, AST, TB, BUN, UA, TC, TG, HDL-c, GGT, ALT, eGFR, FPG and BMI (p < 0.01), while the test for interactions was not statistically significant for ALB, GLB, DBIL and LDL-c (p > 0.05). Although all variables were risk factors, they did not destroy the correlation between AIP and NAFLD. Compared with patients more than 60 years old, AIP in patients under 60 years old was associated with higher risks of NAFLD (OR: 61.03 VS 25.67). Similar results appeared in female and male patients (OR: 92.43 VS 29.11).
Table 5
Subgroup analysis of the association between AIP and NAFLD
| N | OR | 95%CI | P value | P for interaction |
Sex | | | | | < 0.001 |
Female | 23265 | 92.43 | 75.30-113.45 | < 0.001 | |
Male | 31608 | 29.11 | 26.10-32.46 | < 0.001 | |
Age (years) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<60 | 45394 | 61.03 | 54.95–67.78 | < 0.001 | |
>=60 | 9479 | 25.67 | 20.87–31.56 | < 0.001 | |
AST (U/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<21.500 | 30411 | 56.93 | 49.12–65.97 | < 0.001 | |
>=21.500 | 24462 | 37.13 | 32.88–41.94 | < 0.001 | |
TB (mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<9.750 | 17138 | 38.38 | 32.79–44.91 | < 0.001 | |
>=9.750 | 37735 | 63.29 | 56.35–71.08 | < 0.001 | |
BUN (mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<4.095 | 23047 | 78.67 | 66.96–92.43 | < 0.001 | |
>=4.095 | 31826 | 40.22 | 35.87–45.09 | < 0.001 | |
UA (mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<295.500 | 30509 | 68.38 | 57.90-80.76 | < 0.001 | |
>=295.500 | 24364 | 25.37 | 22.55–28.55 | < 0.001 | |
TC (mmol/L) | | | | | 0.001 |
<4.525 | 27855 | 59.30 | 50.97-69.00 | < 0.001 | |
>=4.525 | 27018 | 41.63 | 36.97–46.88 | < 0.001 | |
TG (mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<1.395 | 36755 | 98.11 | 75.21-127.96 | < 0.001 | |
>=1.395 | 18118 | 14.98 | 12.80-17.53 | < 0.001 | |
Total | 54873 | 25.33 | 22.09–29.04 | < 0.001 | |
HDL-c(mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<1.335 | 24257 | 37.46 | 32.79–42.80 | < 0.001 | |
>=1.335 | 30616 | 131.01 | 107.80-159.22 | < 0.001 | |
GGT(U/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
< 22.5 | 31203 | 48.1 | 40.0-57.8 | < 0.001 | |
>=22.5 | 23670 | 29.1 | 18.6–23.4 | < 0.001 | |
ALT(U/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<17.5 | 30801 | 47.1 | 39.9–55.6 | < 0.001 | |
>=17.5 | 24072 | 28.7 | 25.5–32.2 | < 0.001 | |
ALB(U/L) | | | | | 0.656 |
<44.65 | 27585 | 49.8 | 43.4–57.2 | < 0.001 | |
>=44.65 | 27288 | 52.0 | 45.8–59.0 | < 0.001 | |
GLB(U/L) | | | | | 0.304 |
<29.15 | 28786 | 54.8 | 48.1–62.5 | < 0.001 | |
>=29.15 | 26087 | 49.7 | 43.5–56.8 | < 0.001 | |
DBIL (mmol/L) | | | | | 0.490 |
<2.15 | 36777 | 55.4 | 49.4–62.1 | < 0.001 | |
>=2.15 | 18096 | 51.6 | 43.9–60.7 | < 0.001 | |
EGFR | | | | | < 0.01 |
<67.165 | 29522 | 44.8 | 39.6–50.6 | < 0.001 | |
>=67.165 | 25351 | 60.0 | 51.9–69.3 | < 0.001 | |
FPG (mmol/L) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<5.195 | 31735 | 61.8 | 53.6–71.2 | < 0.001 | |
>=5.195 | 23138 | 35.8 | 31.6–40.6 | < 0.001 | |
LDL-c(mmol/L) | | | | | 0.678 |
<2.375 | 30025 | 51.3 | 45.1–58.3 | < 0.001 | |
>=2.375 | 24848 | 49.3 | 42.9–56.6 | < 0.001 | |
BMI (kg/m2) | | | | | < 0.001 |
<24 | 46508 | 51.2 | 45.8–57.3 | < 0.001 | |
>=24 | 8365 | 17.0 | 14.2–20.4 | < 0.001 | |